I'd like to think that we can win all five. But I believe that we could lose 2 or 3 if we continue to play with such a limited and dispiritingly predictable offensive playbook. What the Illinois and PSU games showed is that the Gophers appear to have no answer to teams with aggressive, athletic defenses that bring regular blitzes. Rutgers, Iowa and Wisconsin have aggressive, athletic defenses that love to blitz and to feast on offensive predictability. They will blitz us back to the Stone Age if we have no credible, punishing answer for excessive blitzing.
Good offenses have imbedded tactics to beat any blitz--because every blitz package presents a momentary glaring weakness as well as a shock & awe threat. Blitz-beating tactics almost always require mutual recognition of the true blitz threat at the LOS by the QB and the "hot" receiver. Sometimes blitzes are beaten by screen plays (like the naked screen to Bryce Williams that gained 19 yards in the PSU game). Sometimes an offense moves to a quick-pace--to the line and snap--diminishing a defense's ability to keep jumping around and presenting lot of confusing fronts. You can use five receiver sets (RB moves out) to expose possibly DB weaknesses in coverage if the blitz is on. Sometimes you use a quick buck sweep with pulling OL creating numbers leverage outside (which Michigan did to PSU). Or you can have the QB preemptively roll out of the pocket, away from the blitz, to a side where some nominal receivers might stay home to block. There are many, many more tactics that our coaches know, I am sure. A blitzing team can be beaten, and beaten badly, by pre-installed, well-scripted tactics that are well understood to the offense. But if an offense has no special tactics designed to "counter-punch" the blitz by quickly attacking its weak point, it can lead to a situation in which an inferior team beats a "superior" team through excessive, unpunished blitzing.
I think we have the talent to win out this season. But if our offensive game plan is to try to overpower all our upcoming opponents with nothing special installed to beat and punish excessive blitzing, we could easily lose several games, because we still have some very good defenses on the docket. And losses in that fashion will be on the coaches, for their lack of tactical thinking and creativity, not the players.
Athan has the height, arm strength and confidence to beat a blitz. Give him and the receivers the tactics to beat excessive blitzing, and we can win out. It is that simple.
