If Tua Tagovailoa can be paid $50M to play 16-17 games and sorta fill Hard Rock Stadium and post a losing record and lose his job, then the QB from Miami U can be paid $10M to play 16-17 games and sorta fill Hard Rock Stadium and take them to the title game.
Bryce Underwood getting $4M a year sounds like a lot until you consider that Jared Goff gets over 10x that to play in front of fewer paying customers with the Lions.
Mensah or Underwood may not be anywhere near as good as Tua or Goff at football but it's not about talent it's about value related to a pool of revenue and donations.
Mensah getting $10M will be quaint in a couple years. When it comes to crazy spending by the ultra rich and massive spending on a small few, always bet the over.
estimated revenue in the NCAA is 4.6billion (this is with the estimate of non-performance dollars/donations). the NFL makes 23 billion. There are 134 FBS teams. There are 32 NFL teams.
The TV contracts are pennies compared to the NFLs. Indiana Miami had 30 million viewers. NFL playoff games are around 40mil and the Super Bowl has had 50. Not to mention the international reaches of the pro game are far more widespread than college (hence why if you ever want to tell a tourist, they say look for the college apparel).
The playing "in front of" fans is really nothing. It's the TV numbers that really are dictating everything coupled with there's no cap nor any possibility of punishment in CFB right now for things like tampering. Honestly I think right now is the spot where you're going to see wild numbers thrown around willy nilly because the ultra rich are saying I can try buy a title right now before a crackdown happens and we approach a CBA. Many programs can't afford to keep going at this pace. Indiana had a $3mil deficit last year.
Nothing about now is about ROI or fan generation in CFB nor being the best player/worth it. It's about trying to win in a market with no rails. People are donating and telling the coaches to go buy players and if all players were available, then maybe I could get that argument. They don't give a shit if that's Mendoza, Beck, or Chambliss and they can have his jersey (in fact, I'd bet most "fans" would've said buy Nussmeier or Manning if you're going to buy one) or trying to argue they're "worth" that. Beck and Chambliss are both older than JJ McCarthy, so then we should be fine with McCarthy going back to Michigan for 10mil (and he'd make more money than he currently is). The number of specific guys who actually have these markets/valuations/worths are pretty damn small. You were not worth that ahead of time, you became worth that because you are the QB for Michigan.
tl,dr; no one doing the donating thinks these specific players are worth it which is the inherent issue of NIL. They're donating because they think they can buy a title, whatever player that involves be damned. And hey given there aren't any guardrails or repercussions, and you can throw whatever the hell you want in the contract, why the fuck not try buy one while you've got the chance?
