D-tackle Kristian Williams leaves 2019 recruiting class

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Gophers_4life said:
Thanks. Just saw this. https://www.commercialappeal.com/st...nnounce-commitment-oregon-indiana/2744269002/

In hindsight, coaches should’ve threatened to pull his offer if he didn’t sign in Dec. That would’ve exposed that he never really wanted to come here.
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Threatening to pull the offer only works if your offer is the best one on the table. If a kid has to choose between Minnesota and a MAC school that threat might work. When the choice is Minnesota or Oregon it is a hollow threat and all it would do is take you out of the running completely.

The reality is, when you go up against the big boys you are going to loose out sometimes. What I like about Fleck though is that he is willing to still go after those guys. Mason and Kill rarely went to war with the top programs for recruits. Brewster was willing to go to war but rarely landed the players. To date Fleck has snagged some players with really impressive offer lists. Heck take a look at Cheney and Nubin from this class, Cheney has offers from multiple helmet schools (Alabama, Georgia) and Nubin has offers from over half the Big Ten including Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa.
 

MNVCGUY said:
When the choice is Minnesota or Oregon it is a hollow threat and all it would do is take you out of the running completely.
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That's not at all what I'm talking about, either.

He didn't get his Oregon offer until after the early signing day, when he didn't sign with us. Only after that dust had settled, did he get his Oregon offer.
 

Face The Facts said:
You are correct.
What do you think are reasonable next steps?
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Recruit better. A better year on the field. Couldn't translate it into a better recruiting class.

Your question is a good one for the guy being paid $3.5MM+ because he is a "master recruiter". What I think doesn't matter.
 

Gophers_4life said:
That's not at all what I'm talking about, either.

He didn't get his Oregon offer until after the early signing day, when he didn't sign with us. Only after that dust had settled, did he get his Oregon offer.
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Was using my post as more of a general example but even in the case of Williams, he may not have had an official offer at the time he decommitted but he probably had a good sense for what options he was going to have if he waited until the end of the process.

I am still all for staying in the hunt for in demand guys even if they don't sign right away. I just don't think we have the kind of leverage to pull offers on highly rated guys at this point.
 



caliGopher said:
Recruit better. A better year on the field. Couldn't translate it into a better recruiting class.

Your question is a good one for the guy being paid $3.5MM+ because he is a "master recruiter". What I think doesn't matter.
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Honest question: What is your minimal level of recruiting ranking success?

You assume this years class is worse then last years class because 247 or some other site ranks the players a certain way. There is value in the recruiting services and they have a good sense of what they are doing overall but it is physically impossible for them to get a true in person evaluation of all the players. Much of what they do is based on camps, highlight videos, and information from coaches.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Was using my post as more of a general example but even in the case of Williams, he may not have had an official offer at the time he decommitted but he probably had a good sense for what options he was going to have if he waited until the end of the process.

I am still all for staying in the hunt for in demand guys even if they don't sign right away. I just don't think we have the kind of leverage to pull offers on highly rated guys at this point.
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Honestly, you’re probably right on this, hence why the staff did it your way.

Still, for me, when I see that they don’t sign on a national signing day, having taken an official beforehand, it just means to me that they don’t want to be here, and are hoping (at a minimum) something else comes along.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Might not be a massive leap into the top tiers (something that has basically never been done at Minnesota in the recruiting rankings era) but this class ranks right in line with last years class and I certainly wouldn't view it as a step backward.

I could give a damn about the rankings, it is clear we are recruiting better players overall right now and the evidence in my mind of that is that we are getting guys that other Big Ten and power 5 schools are after. But if you want to get hung up on the numbers, the average player rating for these past two classes is significantly higher then what we were bringing in during the Kill/Claeys era.

We won't truly know how good these classes are for a few years but based on the number of freshman that have been playing and some of the improvements we are all seeing on the field it would certainly seem like things are moving in the right direction on the recruiting front.

I don't pay for any of the premium sites but just looking at the free info out there it also appears we are getting some notice from those upper echelon players that could really help propel the team to the next level.

Like all things with Fleck, we are not to the destination yet but there are definite reasons to believe that we are on the right track on multiple fronts.
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I did not say we were not moving forward, but the data suggests that while we are moving forward, we are moving forward at a lower rate than our competition, just in the Big Ten West.

From 2 in the west to 5 in the west
From 3 to 7th in average ranking in the west (from above average to below average)
From 2 to tie for 6th in 4 and 5 Star recruits

So no, we're not at the destination, but this was a step backwards, no matter how you look at it. Given his recruiting is a big reason he was hired, he was passed in the conf. rankings by Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa in the West (WI had a small class last year, so that is less of a surprise/issue given they had the second highest avg ranking last year) and Indiana from the East. Given Fleck's bluster and how we are going to get better is to have better talent than our opponents, this class is a disappointment.

Purdue did worse than we did. We crushed them. There were rumors the coach was leaving. And they lost their bowl game, and they improved recruiting this year: from 11th to 5th. From 6th to 4th in average talent and from 6th to 2nd in 4 star recruits. Why shouldn't we expect this as well?
 

Gophers_4life said:
Upper echelons of recruiting would be Michigan/Ohio State.

If Wisconsin can’t grt to that level after umpteen 10+ win seasons, then that is an entirely unrealistic goal for us.

At some point, the inertia of being a national, major helmet school just can’t be overcome by any program that’s not already there. Clemson might be an exception, but that’s debatable.

I think ceiling for us nationally is classes in the 20’s. And is that alone going to significantly move the needle in average wins? I remain unconvinced.
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Upper eschelons to me is top 25. The top of the top is top 5. just to clarify the comment.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Honest question: What is your minimal level of recruiting ranking success?

You assume this years class is worse then last years class because 247 or some other site ranks the players a certain way. There is value in the recruiting services and they have a good sense of what they are doing overall but it is physically impossible for them to get a true in person evaluation of all the players. Much of what they do is based on camps, highlight videos, and information from coaches.
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1st or 2nd in the Big Ten West. What I'm hoping for is top 25 ranking based on the recruiting prowess we are paying $3.5MM+ a year for. Ideally our goal should be top 5 in the Big Ten, but "that's not possible". Unless you're Purdue this year. Doing it once is great, sustaining it is what I'm looking for.

my assessment is not how Minnesota ranks from year to year, but how they rank relative to the rest of the Big 10 west from year to year. This class could have been worse in terms of average and number of 4/5 star players, but if we were still 2nd relative to the Big Ten west, I'd be less concerned.
 

caliGopher said:
I did not say we were not moving forward, but the data suggests that while we are moving forward, we are moving forward at a lower rate than our competition, just in the Big Ten West.

From 2 in the west to 5 in the west
From 3 to 7th in average ranking in the west (from above average to below average)
From 2 to tie for 6th in 4 and 5 Star recruits

So no, we're not at the destination, but this was a step backwards, no matter how you look at it. Given his recruiting is a big reason he was hired, he was passed in the conf. rankings by Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa in the West (WI had a small class last year, so that is less of a surprise/issue given they had the second highest avg ranking last year) and Indiana from the East. Given Fleck's bluster and how we are going to get better is to have better talent than our opponents, this class is a disappointment.

Purdue did worse than we did. We crushed them. There were rumors the coach was leaving. And they lost their bowl game, and they improved recruiting this year: from 11th to 5th. From 6th to 4th in average talent and from 6th to 2nd in 4 star recruits. Why shouldn't we expect this as well?
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This is such an interesting point.
- no way Purdue is a higher ranked school
- no way Purdue has better facilities than us
- no way does Purdue have a “better” modern history of winning than us
- you can argue one way or another, but I would argue that Brohm is not a more talented salesman than Fleck
- don’t think they can offer more immediate playing time


So what was it?? How did they pull it off?

You can always speculate funny stuff (bagmen), but I’m going to assume that was not the case.

So that leads me to he only other thing I can think of: geography. Being physically located more closely to more people and more four star athletes. Closer to them, and the recruit is closer to home.

What else could it be?? Even Madison and Iowa City are closer to Chicago and he “core” Midwest/Great Lakes football areas.


Our distance and isolation from the population centers of higher end football talent, has statistically hurt us over the years. That’s all I can conclude.
 

Gophers_4life said:
This is such an interesting point.
- no way Purdue is a higher ranked school
- no way Purdue has better facilities than us
- no way does Purdue have a “better” modern history of winning than us
- you can argue one way or another, but I would argue that Brohm is not a more talented salesman than Fleck
- don’t think they can offer more immediate playing time


So what was it?? How did they pull it off?

You can always speculate funny stuff (bagmen), but I’m going to assume that was not the case.

So that leads me to he only other thing I can think of: geography. Being physically located more closely to more people and more four star athletes. Closer to them, and the recruit is closer to home.

What else could it be?? Even Madison and Iowa City are closer to Chicago and he “core” Midwest/Great Lakes football areas.


Our distance and isolation from the population centers of higher end football talent, has statistically hurt us over the years. That’s all I can conclude.
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It's perception. Brohm took a team that had won nine games total (three total in the B1G) in the four years preceding him to seven wins (four in B1G) his first year. Beat three ranked teams in 2018 and went 5-4 in B1G. He can't bump along at 6 or 7 wins though...will impact his future classes pretty quickly.
 

caliGopher said:
1st or 2nd in the Big Ten West. What I'm hoping for is top 25 ranking based on the recruiting prowess we are paying $3.5MM+ a year for. Ideally our goal should be top 5 in the Big Ten, but "that's not possible". Unless you're Purdue this year. Doing it once is great, sustaining it is what I'm looking for.

my assessment is not how Minnesota ranks from year to year, but how they rank relative to the rest of the Big 10 west from year to year. This class could have been worse in terms of average and number of 4/5 star players, but if we were still 2nd relative to the Big Ten west, I'd be less concerned.
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You keep tossing around that 3.5 million salary number like that is supposed to be impressive. I get that it is quite a bit more then we have paid around here traditionally but by comparison it is still one of the lowest salaries in the Big Ten.

https://n.rivals.com/news/breaking-down-head-coaching-salaries-in-the-big-ten

Purdue has 26 recruits and their average player rank is 86.63 on rivals. We have 22 recruits and an average of 85.80. Their top 2 guys are both from Indiana and their highest rated guy was from friggin West Lafayette.

I'm not saying you are wrong in wanting us to recruit at the top of the Big Ten West but that is always going to be tough around here because our in state talent base is pretty weak most years. The important thing is that we are recruiting similar talent to the teams we are up against and I would argue that there is very little difference in the classes from top to bottom in the Big Ten West this year. A few might have more headliners but none of the classes are bad or way behind the others. Only 3 teams in the Big Ten pulled down what would be considered great recruiting classes on paper and those are Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan.
 

MNVCGUY said:
You keep tossing around that 3.5 million salary number like that is supposed to be impressive. I get that it is quite a bit more then we have paid around here traditionally but by comparison it is still one of the lowest salaries in the Big Ten.

https://n.rivals.com/news/breaking-down-head-coaching-salaries-in-the-big-ten

Purdue has 26 recruits and their average player rank is 86.63 on rivals. We have 22 recruits and an average of 85.80. Their top 2 guys are both from Indiana and their highest rated guy was from friggin West Lafayette.

I'm not saying you are wrong in wanting us to recruit at the top of the Big Ten West but that is always going to be tough around here because our in state talent base is pretty weak most years. The important thing is that we are recruiting similar talent to the teams we are up against and I would argue that there is very little difference in the classes from top to bottom in the Big Ten West this year. A few might have more headliners but none of the classes are bad or way behind the others. Only 3 teams in the Big Ten pulled down what would be considered great recruiting classes on paper and those are Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan.
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caliG lays it out in post #42.
 

MNVCGUY said:
You keep tossing around that 3.5 million salary number like that is supposed to be impressive. I get that it is quite a bit more then we have paid around here traditionally but by comparison it is still one of the lowest salaries in the Big Ten.

https://n.rivals.com/news/breaking-down-head-coaching-salaries-in-the-big-ten

Purdue has 26 recruits and their average player rank is 86.63 on rivals. We have 22 recruits and an average of 85.80. Their top 2 guys are both from Indiana and their highest rated guy was from friggin West Lafayette.

I'm not saying you are wrong in wanting us to recruit at the top of the Big Ten West but that is always going to be tough around here because our in state talent base is pretty weak most years. The important thing is that we are recruiting similar talent to the teams we are up against and I would argue that there is very little difference in the classes from top to bottom in the Big Ten West this year. A few might have more headliners but none of the classes are bad or way behind the others. Only 3 teams in the Big Ten pulled down what would be considered great recruiting classes on paper and those are Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan.
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When Fleck was hired, $3.5MM was in the 6-8 range in the Big Ten. It’s up to him to deliver results to increase that salary.

Stop making excuses as to why we can’t recruit. We can. We took a step up last year. A small step back this year. I expect him to be going forward. Each year at least right now given “how bad a situation he took over” it shouldn’t be an expectation that gets pushback.

In recruiting we can’t say that this year. It’s supposed to be his strength. We should expect more. He has more tools and resources than any coach at the U since 1961. Stadium, facilities, salaries for assistants, funds for recruiting, etc. I expect him to make use of it. If he can’t, we aren’t moving forward. We’ve been idling for too long. Changing coaches isn’t the answer. Fleck delivering on his schtick needs to happen. I’d say he’s not earning his $3.5MM no matter how low that falls on the scale in the big ten. He needs to. He’s said repeatedly that better recruiting will get us there. His model in the MAC was to our recruit everyone. The good news is he’s still out recruiting the MAC. The bad news is we play in the Big Ten. He needs to up his game. Like he needed to fix his horrible hire at DC. He did that. He didn’t come through on the recruiting trail this year.

To clarify on Purdue. They had a good recruiting year this year. That’s great. Sustaining it is what will change fortunes. Going backwards won’t. We’ll see where we end up next year. Hopefully top of the Bog Ten west and ahead of wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue (and Indiana) next season and in line with or above Nebraska.




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