That's a good point, and as with most things, I think the extremes end up being intellectual dishonest and the loudest voices in the room. If a program gets to a point where they are stagnating in "pretty good but not great, and no reason to think staying the course gets us over the hump," there is a decision point. That administrators at the point should judge any potential options with these two thoughts in mind: (1) the right guy could do for us what Cignetti did to Indiana and (2) its more likely the new hire will be a downgrade than will have us competing for titles. There is a legitimate risk reward analysis to be done there, which should consider exactly how things are going (stringing together 8-9 win regular seasons would be tougher to risk than consistently making bowl games with 6 or 7 wins) and how good you feel about the potential new shiny coach.