You're trying to rationalize a potentially irrational decision by a young kid. But, as for the UCONN comments, I think you're off. First, UCONN is better than Minnesota right now - I wish it wasn't so, but they are.
Second.. I'm not sure I'd knock their 2009 and 2010 classes. They easily had a top 15 class in 2009, including a 5-star big man (Oriakhi) and a couple of solid kids in Darius Smith and Jamal Coombs-McDaniel. For 2010, just last week they secured another strong recruit, 6’7” Roscoe Smith out of Oak Hill Academy to join with 6’10” Michael Bradley and 6’4” Jeremy Lamb as well as 6’7” Cleveland Melvin. Of the 8 2009 and 2010 recruits, you’ve got a few SGs, a few forwards, and a couple of centers… no PG. I see Kemba Walker being around at least one more year, but Cory would have an opportunity to be a star at a high-profile program.
Big East teams that lose a lot of players get a lot of the, 'ooh, they will be down.. ' and they still come out and perform at a high level (see Pitt as a 2009-10 example) and 'surprise' some people. UCONN has made the tourney in 7 of the last 8 years and 10 of the last 12... to say they are looking like a team bound for the NIT next year is silly.
There are so many little things that can go into a decision... and so many little things that can sway it on any given day. Trying to rationalize what a kid is going to do will only make you go crazy.