Connelly on Rutgers (Can they even score? Can defense stop decent teams?)

swingman

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When might Rutgers score points? It remains one of the greatest building jobs we've seen. When Greg Schiano took over at Rutgers in 2001, the Scarlet Knights hadn't been to a bowl game in 23 years and had averaged three wins per year for the previous eight. By the time he left for the NFL, Rutgers had bowled six times in seven years.

Nine years later, he returned to a program ... that had won nine games in four seasons. That he's gone 8-14 thus far is semi-miraculous.

In 2021, Rutgers jumped from 84th to 46th in defensive SP+. The Scarlet Knights defended the run well and played a super aggressive, blitz- and man coverage-heavy pass defense that sometimes worked and sometimes got smoked. They took the fight to opponents, though, and when they could compete talent-wise, they did well -- they were 5-1 against teams that finished worse than 60th in SP+ and 0-7 against everyone else (average score: 37-10). They were the anti-Maryland, beating bad teams with defense.

The secondary, led by do-it-all safety Christian Izien and corner Kessawn Abraham, should again be aggressive and exciting. The front seven, however, has some pieces to replace. Linebacker Olakunle Fatukasi, tackle Julius Turner and end Mohamed Toure were Rutgers' three best havoc creators last season; Fatukasi and Turner are gone, and Toure was lost for the season because of an injury in spring ball. With Schiano's track record, though, we should still probably give the defense the benefit of the doubt. Sophomores such as end Aaron Lewis and linebacker Tyreem Powell could be stars sooner than later.

The offense gets no such benefit of the doubt. Offensive coordinator Sean Gleeson has worked for creative offensive coaches like Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy and Princeton's Bob Surace, and he's willing to throw interesting stuff at the wall to see what sticks. Nothing has. Rutgers ranked 109th in offensive SP+ and 121st in points per drive in 2021.

Sixth-year senior Noah Vedral returns at quarterback but ranked just 111th in Total QBR last season. If either sophomore Evan Simon or four-star redshirt freshman Gavin Wimsatt were to raise their game, they could end up starting. Schiano brought in receiver transfers Taj Harris (Syracuse) and Sean Ryan (West Virginia), and while they could indeed help, the skill corps is devoid of other proven play-makers, and the line is undergoing a major makeover with five of last year's top six departing and four transfers coming in. Maybe the new blood will help, but against a schedule with seven projected top-30 teams, it might only help so much.

 




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