Conference Challenges and Start of Conference Play Highlight the Week Ahead in College Hoops

SelectionSunday

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Note: The initial NET rankings came out Monday morning. Team NET rankings have been added to the projected field.

@Fieldof68Freak

ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY -- Our look at Week 4 of the college basketball season, as always starting with the weekly “Field of 68” projection. Projected automatic tournament qualifiers in multiple-bid conferences are noted with an *. NET rankings are in parentheses.

FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through November 30, 2024)
America East (1): Maine (147)

American (1): Memphis (31)

ACC (5): *Duke (4), Pitt (5), Clemson (18), North Carolina (26), Louisville (30)

ASUN (1): North Florida (119)

Atlantic 10 (2): *Dayton (40), Saint Joseph’s (134)

Big East (4): *Marquette (7), Saint John's (42), Butler (47), Xavier (103)

Big Sky (1): Northern Colorado (100)

Big South (1): Radford (101)

Big Ten (9): *Illinois (10), Ohio State (12), Oregon (15), Wisconsin (17), Purdue (21), Penn State (34), Michigan (35), Michigan State (41), Nebraska (44)

Big XII (9): *Kansas (9), Cincinnati (11), Iowa State (19), Houston (20), Baylor (22), West Virginia (29), Arizona State (33), Texas Tech (36), BYU (48)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (24)

Coastal (1): Elon (82)

Conference USA (1): Liberty (53)

Horizon (1): Purdue Fort Wayne (85)

Ivy (1): Columbia (76)

MAAC (1): Saint Peter’s (184)

MAC (1): Kent State (95)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (109)

Missouri Valley (1): Drake (45)

Mountain West (3): *Utah State (14), Nevada (32), San Diego State (60)

NEC (1): Central Connecticut (204)

OVC (1): Little Rock (212)

Patriot (1): Holy Cross (224)

SEC (11): *Tennessee (1), Auburn (2), Florida (6), Kentucky (8), Alabama (13), Mississippi State (28), Oklahoma (37), Texas A&M (43), Ole Miss (55), Texas (56), Vanderbilt (62)

SoCon (1): Furman (77)

Southland (1): McNeese (74)

SWAC (1): Grambling State (183)

Summit (1): South Dakota State (96)

Sun Belt (1): Texas State (123)

WCC (2): *Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (25)

WAC (1): Seattle (105)
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Last 4 In: Penn State (34), Vanderbilt (62), Xavier (103), Saint Joseph’s (134)

First 4 Out: UCLA (16), Georgia (27), LSU (50), New Mexico (66)

Next 4 Out: Boise State (38), San Francisco (52), Loyola-Chicago (69), UCF (84)

Non-Power 5 At-Large Bids (4): Saint Mary's (25), Nevada (32), San Diego State (60), Saint Joseph’s (134)
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RANDOM RAMBLIN’ MUSINGS
Conference Challenges

The ACC/SEC Challenge, Big XII-Big East Battle, and Big Sky-Summit Challenge take place this week. The headliners are Auburn @ Duke, Marquette @ Iowa State, and South Dakota State @ Montana, all taking place Wednesday. Locally, St. Thomas will play @ Northern Colorado on Wednesday and host Montana at 2 p.m. Saturday (televised locally on FOX9+) in its two games in the Big Sky-Summit series.

Conference Grind
Conference play begins in 7 conferences this week: ACC; Big Ten; Big West; Horizon League; MAAC; Missouri Valley; and Mountain West.

You (Big Ten) Big Teaser, Huh
The Big Ten season opens Tuesday with its annual slate of two December conference games for each school. Let’s get it started with the trifecta of Northwestern @ Iowa (6 CT, Peacock), Michigan @ Wisconsin (8, Peacock), and Washington @ UCLA (9:30, BTN).

Maybe It Does Just Mean More
The SEC has been the nation’s best conference by a significant margin, sporting a 29-13 record vs. the Power 5, while earning 5 tournament championships. Early on 14 of its 16 teams look like viable NCAA Tournament hopefuls. My current bracket has 11 SEC squads in the NCAA field.

UConn or UCant?
Raise your hand if you had the two-time defending national champions finishing last in the 8-team (albeit loaded) Maui Invitational. And it’s not getting any easier. UConn (5-3) finishes its non-conference slate with Baylor (home), Texas (road), and Gonzaga (neutral site). Danny Hurley is a raving lunatic on the sidelines (someone in his family and/or inner circle needs to have a talk with him), but I’d be willing to bet he’ll figure it out and have the Huskies kicking it into gear as March rolls around.

When Not Knowing When to Foul is Foul
The Gophers got it all mixed up in their ugly, painful 68-66 overtime loss to Wichita State. Up 3 late in regulation, they had at least two good opportunities to foul to stop the Shockers from getting off a game-tying 3 but didn’t (you know what happened next). Then with about 5 seconds left in OT in a tie game, Frank Mitchell for some reason decides to commit a foul 30 feet from the basket. Again, you know what happened next, but I’ll spell it out. … the Shockers made both free throws and Gophers wing Brennan Rigsby had a tough, contested 3 at the buzzer that bounced softly & agonizingly, of course, on the rim and fell off.

Buffed Otz Is Ballin’
What’s the deal with Iowa State coach TJ Otzelberger and his skin-tight shirts accentuating his pipes? He always looks like he just stepped out of the weightroom. Anyways, Otz is coaching up a storm in his fourth season in Ames. He inherited a program that was 2-22 in 2020-21 and has proceeded to go 75-36 with three NCAA appearances and four NCAA Tournament wins. And – I find this impressive despite his propensity for soft non-conference scheduling -- he’s never lost a game (28-0) to an opponent outside the Power 5, regular season or postseason. Take care of the teams you’re supposed to beat. Sidebar: I know another school with a fourth-year coach from a Midwest Power 5 conference not doing anywhere near as well.

You Know What You’re Getting Every Season
Randy Bennett’s Saint Mary’s basketball program is a model of consistency. Pretty much every season you can count on the Gaels having a bunch of foreign dudes who will win about 25 games, finish second in the WCC (or occasionally win it) behind Gonzaga, earn a NCAA Tournament bid, and then flame out in the first or second round. It’s like clockwork. That said, as a suffering Gopher fan, I’d welcome those regular season wins and early NCAA exits 24-7, 365.

West Coast At-Large Woes
Before the season Grand Canyon (WAC), San Francisco (WCC), and Santa Clara (WCC) were thought of as legitimate non-Power 5 at-large hopefuls in the event they failed to win their conference tournament. Now all three appear they’ll have to go the customary conference tournament-champion-or-bust route. Grand Canyon (4-2) beat Stanford but lost a neutral-site game vs. Arizona State and suffered a bad loss to UC-Davis. San Francisco (5-2) has a nice win over Boise State but failed in opportunities vs. Memphis and Clemson. Santa Clara (3-5) has losses to Arizona State, Nevada, Stanford, and Washington, as well as a bad home loss to North Dakota State. All three scheduled strong but haven’t capitalized.

Bracket It As It Lies
Golfers begrudgingly know sometimes they’re going to get a bad break and must “play it as it lies”. College basketball 8- and 4-team tournament organizers/TV executives need to do the same. For some reason it bugs the h*ll out of me some made-for-TV tournaments don’t play the games in bracket order, especially the final day of the 3-day tournaments. Hey guys & gals, Day 3 should be 7th-place game, 5th-place game, 3rd-place game, and capped off with the championship game. Any other order is blasphemy!

The 17 Unconquered (survived first month of season unbeaten)
Auburn, Cincinnati, Columbia, DePaul, Drake, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Loyola-Chicago, Marquette, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, UC-Irvine, Utah State, Wisconsin

POWER 5 HEAD-TO-HEAD (+ Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State)
1 SEC (29-13, 69%)
2 Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State (8-4, 66.7%)
3 Big Ten (22-17, 56.4%)
4 Big East (10-13, 43.5%)
5 Big XII (16-21, 43.2%)
6 ACC (12-29, 29.3%)

(Team) Record vs. Power 5
3-0 Auburn, Butler, Kansas, Marquette, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Wisconsin
2-0Florida, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin
1-0 -- Cincinnati, Clemson, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech
4-1 – Gonzaga
3-1 – Michigan, Pitt, Purdue
2-1 – Georgia, LSU, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Saint Mary’s, Xavier
3-2 – Alabama, Texas A&M
2-2 – Baylor, Indiana, Louisville, San Diego State, Wake Forest, West Virginia
1-1 -- Arizona State, BYU, Cal, Illinois, Iowa State, Maryland, Nebraska, Ole Miss, Penn State, Texas
1-2 -- Colorado, Duke, Ohio State, Rutgers, Saint John’s, South Carolina, UCF, Virginia
1-3 -- Creighton, Houston, Notre Dame
0-1 -- Florida State, Georgetown, Kansas State, Miami, Minnesota, Northwestern, Seton Hall, TCU, UConn, Utah
0-2 -- Arkansas, Georgia Tech, NC State, Providence, SMU, Syracuse, USC, Villanova
0-3 -- North Carolina, Virginia Tech
0-4 -- Arizona

(Conference) Non-Power 5 Wins vs. Power 5 (Week 4)
Atlantic 10 (7) – Davidson over Providence, VCU over Miami
Mountain West (7) – Colorado State over TCU, Nevada over Oklahoma State, New Mexico over USC
American (6) – Memphis over UConn, Memphis over Michigan State, Wichita State over Minnesota
ASUN (4) – Jacksonville over Virginia Tech
Coastal (3) – Elon over Notre Dame, Monmouth over Seton Hall
Conference USA (2) – Kennesaw State over Rutgers, Liberty over Kansas State
Ivy League (2) – Dartmouth over Boston College
Missouri Valley (2) – Drake over Vanderbilt
Big South (1) – Charleston Southern over Miami
Big West (1) – Cal Poly over Stanford
WCC (1) – Santa Clara over TCU
WAC (1) – Grand Canyon over Stanford

(Team) Non-Power 5 Wins vs. Power 5 (37)
3
– Memphis
2 – Drake, Nevada, New Mexico, North Florida, Saint Joseph’s, VCU
1 -- Austin Peay, Boise State, Cal Poly, Charleston Southern, Colorado State, Columbia, Dartmouth, Davidson, Dayton, Elon, FAU, Fordham, Grand Canyon, Hofstra, Jacksonville, Kennesaw State, Liberty, Monmouth, North Texas, Santa Clara, Utah State, Wichita State

The Local Lads (NET rankings)
#133 St. Thomas Tommies (2-4)
#155 Minnesota Gophers (6-3)

Tommies Stat Leaders
Miles Barnstable (12.9 ppg), Kendall Blue (4.9 rpg), Drake Dobbs (3.6 apg), Ryan Dufault (1.5 spg), Ben Oosterbaan (53.8 3PFG%)

Gophers Stat Leaders
Dawson Garcia (18.6 ppg), Garcia (7.3 rpg), Lu’Cye Patterson (3.8 apg), Femi Odukale (2.2 spg), Garcia (42.3 3PFG%)

Gophers Non-Conference D1 Opponents
Bethune-Cookman (2-5)
Central Michigan (2-3)
Cleveland State (3-5)
Fairleigh Dickinson (1-5)
Morgan State (1-6)
North Texas (4-2)
Omaha (2-6)
Oral Roberts (0-4)
Wake Forest (7-2)
Wichita State (6-1)
Yale (3-4)
Totals: (31-43, 41.9%)

Tommies Non-Conference D1 Opponents

Arizona State (7-1)
Bowling Green (2-5)
Chicago State (0-9)
Green Bay (2-6)
Milwaukee (4-4)
Montana (3-3)
Northern Colorado (3-3)
Oklahoma State (4-2)
Portland State (3-3)
UC-Riverside (3-4)
Western Michigan (2-4)
Wofford (1-5)
Totals: (34-49, 41%)

The Tenuous Trio
– Big Ten squads hoping to make it to Weakling Wednesday
My weekly opine on the 3 Big Ten teams tracking toward an early end to their 2024-25 season (no invitation to Indianapolis & the Big Ten Tournament).

#16 Indiana
#17 Minnesota
#18 USC

Bracket Racket
There are 29 non-round robin or bracketed tournaments in November/December. Concluding this week is:

Big 5 Classic Title Game (Dec. 7) – La Salle vs. Saint Joseph’s

Tournament Winners to Date (26): Boston College/ACC, Clemson/ACC, SMU/ACC, Butler/Big East, Weber State/Big Sky, Gardner-Webb/Big South, Radford/Big South, Michigan/Big Ten, Oregon/Big Ten, Purdue/Big Ten, Washington/Big Ten, Wisconsin/Big Ten, Arizona State/Big XII, UC-San Diego/Big West, Liberty/Conference USA, Miami/MAC, Bradley/Missouri Valley, Drake/Missouri Valley, Utah State/Mountain West, Auburn/SEC, Florida/SEC, Oklahoma/SEC, Tennessee/SEC, Texas/SEC, UTRGV/Southland, Loyola Marymount/WCC

Multiple Wins vs. KenPom Top 68
Auburn (4)
Gonzaga (4)
Memphis (4)
Butler (3)
Kansas (3)
Marquette (3)
Oregon (3)
Pitt (3)
Purdue (3)
Alabama (2)
Arizona State (2)
Baylor (2)
Clemson (2)
Dayton (2)
Louisville (2)
Mississippi State (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Saint Joseph’s (2)
San Diego State (2)
Tennessee (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Utah State (2)
West Virginia (2)
Wisconsin (2)

5 Highest Ranked KenPom Teams Without Win vs. Top 68
#5 Houston
#9 Cincinnati
#17 UCLA
#19 Texas Tech
#24 UConn

#1 NET King
Tennessee (7-0)

#68 Kinda’ Tournament Cutline
Cal State-Northridge (5-2)

#182 Stuck in the Middle with You
UNC-Wilmington (4-2)

#364 NET Bottom Dweller
Mississippi Valley State (0-7)

Week 5 Power 5 Head-to-Head
Tuesday

Cincinnati @ Villanova
Arkansas @ Miami
Notre Dame @ Georgia
Cal @ Missouri
South Carolina @ Boston College
Syracuse @ Tennessee
BYU @ Providence
Wake Forest @ Texas A&M
Ole Miss @ Louisville
Georgia Tech @ Oklahoma
Florida State @ LSU
Kentucky @ Clemson

Wednesday
Baylor @ UConn
Alabama @ North Carolina
Virginia @ Florida
Marquette @ Iowa State
Kansas @ Creighton
Auburn @ Duke
Pitt @ Mississippi State
DePaul @ Texas Tech
Texas @ NC State
Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech

Thursday
Xavier @ TCU

Friday
Georgetown @ West Virginia

Saturday
Kansas State @ Saint John’s
Wisconsin @ Marquette
Butler @ Houston
Saint Mary’s @ Utah
Gonzaga vs. Kentucky

December 8
Oklahoma State @ Seton Hall
Vanderbilt @ TCU
Kansas @ Missouri
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech
UConn @ Texas

Worth Eyeballing (includes all Big Ten conference games)
North Florida @ Nebraska (Sunday)
Yale @ Rhode Island (Monday)
Washington State @ Nevada (Monday)
Northwestern @ Iowa (Tuesday)
Michigan @ Wisconsin (Tuesday)
Washington @ UCLA (Tuesday)
Ohio State @ Maryland (Wednesday)
Louisiana Tech @ Memphis (Wednesday)
St. Thomas @ Northern Colorado (Wednesday)
Michigan State @ Minnesota (Wednesday)
Oregon @ USC (Wednesday)
Purdue @ Penn State (Thursday)
North Texas @ High Point (Friday)
Illinois @ Northwestern (Friday)
Rutgers @ Ohio State (Saturday)
Nebraska @ Michigan State (Saturday)
Iowa @ Michigan (Saturday)
Montana @ St. Thomas (Saturday)
Boise State @ Washington State (Saturday)
USC @ Washington (Saturday)
Maryland @ Purdue (December 8)
Duke @ Louisville (December 8)
UCLA @ Oregon (December 8)

Week 4 Teams of the Week
Power 5

Auburn – The likely/should be new #1 Tigers beat Iowa State, North Carolina, and Memphis to win the loaded Maui Invitational.

Non-Power 5
Memphis – In that same Maui Invitational, this Tiger defeated two-time defending national champion UConn and Michigan State before succumbing to Auburn in the championship game.

Next (planned) Field of 68: December 8
 
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Nice job, as it is every week.

I don’t believe Indiana will be one of the three B10 teams not making it to the BTT, though I have no comeback argument to defend the job Woodson is (not) doing. This is the reason I wasn’t buying them as a contender. But, I think they will out-talent enough teams in the league, especially in B-town, that they won’t hit the bottom 3. Still think Washington, but this league is extremely bunched.
 

Nice job, as it is every week.

I don’t believe Indiana will be one of the three B10 teams not making it to the BTT, though I have no comeback argument to defend the job Woodson is (not) doing. This is the reason I wasn’t buying them as a contender. But, I think they will out-talent enough teams in the league, especially in B-town, that they won’t hit the bottom 3. Still think Washington, but this league is extremely bunched.
It would be a surprise for a team ranked #14 on 1 December to then not even make their conference tourney. I DO NOT think that Indiana will remain #14. I believe they will end the season outside of the top 25 but I do believe they will make the BIG tourney
 

If Indiana is that bad, the Gophers absolutely must win one of the two games this week.
 

It would be a surprise for a team ranked #14 on 1 December to then not even make their conference tourney. I DO NOT think that Indiana will remain #14. I believe they will end the season outside of the top 25 but I do believe they will make the BIG tourney
The Tenuous Trio is week to week, a snapshot in time. Once conference play starts this week, I’ll start leaning on the conference standings.
 





The NET rankings are out. MN clocks in at #155. UST? #133.
Meh. It's a fantasy ranking. No games have been played between the two and thus no baseline has been set.
The truth is that neither team is good and neither team will play in the NCAA tournament in March. Any ranking besides that is meaningless, which is why staring at spreadsheets is a waste of a fans time. Go watch the actual game and see if a team is actually good or not. That's why those kids play the game, so you can watch.
 




Meh. It's a fantasy ranking. No games have been played between the two and thus no baseline has been set.
The truth is that neither team is good and neither team will play in the NCAA tournament in March. Any ranking besides that is meaningless, which is why staring at spreadsheets is a waste of a fans time. Go watch the actual game and see if a team is actually good or not. That's why those kids play the game, so you can watch.


Thanks! Great stuff
 

Meh. It's a fantasy ranking. No games have been played between the two and thus no baseline has been set.
The truth is that neither team is good and neither team will play in the NCAA tournament in March. Any ranking besides that is meaningless, which is why staring at spreadsheets is a waste of a fans time. Go watch the actual game and see if a team is actually good or not. That's why those kids play the game, so you can watch.
The trouble with this is that seeing one game can often give you a distorted impression. How you play over the course of all your games gives you a better sense, and no one can watch all the games of all the teams.

For example, Bowling Green apparently gave it their all against MSU a couple weeks ago and you proclaimed them likely to be a contender in the MAC. They've gone on to lose games to mighty Bellarmine (currently #319 on Torvik and otherwise winless against D1 competition) and Weber St. The analytics suggested BGSU is pretty bad, and, your expert eyes aside, now the outcomes bear that out, too. The conference season hasn't started yet, though - hope that your one-game eyes were right isn't dead yet
 

The trouble with this is that seeing one game can often give you a distorted impression. How you play over the course of all your games gives you a better sense, and no one can watch all the games of all the teams.

For example, Bowling Green apparently gave it their all against MSU a couple weeks ago and you proclaimed them likely to be a contender in the MAC. They've gone on to lose games to mighty Bellarmine (currently #319 on Torvik and otherwise winless against D1 competition) and Weber St. The analytics suggested BGSU is pretty bad, and, your expert eyes aside, now the outcomes bear that out, too. The conference season hasn't started yet, though - hope that your one-game eyes were right isn't dead yet
This is a great example of how one misses the joy of the game by looking at a spreadsheet instead of the players playing the game.

Your method here is similar to a utilitarian who can never know what is correct until after the event has occurred. This makes the actual event worthless until after it has happened. In this approach one misses the actual event.
 



This is a great example of how one misses the joy of the game by looking at a spreadsheet instead of the players playing the game.

Your method here is similar to a utilitarian who can never know what is correct until after the event has occurred. This makes the actual event worthless until after it has happened. In this approach one misses the actual event

This seems like a long-winded deflection to being incredibly wrong about BGSU.
 
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This seems like a log-winded deflection to being incredibly wrong about BGSU.
Am I wrong before the MAC season starts?

In the end, I may be wrong. But, what I saw against Michigan State was a team that was competitive and fun to watch.

Perhaps you should watch more basketball. It's a fun game to watch.
 

I watched Chicago State (in person) tonight vs. St. Thomas, and I can unequivocally say they looked the part of the 6th worst team (NET #359) in the country. Played hard, but man, they were bad.
 

I watched Chicago State (in person) tonight vs. St. Thomas, and I can unequivocally say they looked the part of the 6th worst team (NET #359) in the country. Played hard, but man, they were bad.
I saw a clip on the 10 o'clock news. Were you the only person attending? That crowd looked smaller than a Williams Arena crowd, and that's saying something.
 

I watched Chicago State (in person) tonight vs. St. Thomas, and I can unequivocally say they looked the part of the 6th worst team (NET #359) in the country. Played hard, but man, they were bad.

Agree I feel bad for Chicago St… last home game 11/26… next home game 1/12/25… tough way to play… they had just played Wisconsin Saturday…
 

I saw a clip on the 10 o'clock news. Were you the only person attending? That crowd looked smaller than a Williams Arena crowd, and that's saying something.
Great stuff and insight… Two days in a row can’t wait for tomorrow…
 


As usual, this is a very good write-up.

But as a (recently still at least) Gophers fan...I hesitate to say how fantastic it is. Even if you like watching other teams...the knowledge that it's not college, but rather it's the teams that are the sleaziest that win...I can't understand enjoying that.
 

I saw a clip on the 10 o'clock news. Were you the only person attending? That crowd looked smaller than a Williams Arena crowd, and that's saying something.
Not a big crowd, and not unusual for a December St. Thomas home game. Crowds pick up once conference play starts.
 





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