Column: Gophers Return One of the Best Shooters Among Big Ten Point Guards

[GopherHole Staff]

Gophers Return One of the Best Shooters Among Big Ten Point Guards
By J.B. Bauer

Dre Hollins & Julian Welch made a combined 41% of their 3-point attempts.

Impressive accuracy last season may be tough to duplicate in 2012-13.

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/154510?referrer_id=331171

 

[bemidjigopher]

Welch will definently help the team with offense off the bench or as a starter in a three guard lineup, but once DRe got healthy he was clearly the guy by the end of the season, not to take anything away from Welch, but Dre passed him with his play in the B1G tourney and the NIT run.

 

[BleedGopher]

Good read GopherWarrior. One point where I disagree though was this statement:

"People will remember some late game missed free throws from Welch, but he was a fine 78% from the line overall. If anything more than coincidence, misses in crunch time are mostly mental and fans should do what Julian needs to do whenever he's at the line - forget about the past. It's just another free throw."

Let's hope it was just a coincidence, but we know it was just a coincidence as well as we know it wasn't...in other words, no one knows. Hitting a FT in the first few minutes of a game is much different than hitting FTs in the final minute of a road BT game. You can't just lump them as the same. I'd rather it be a mechanical issue than a mental one as you suggest, as the latter is more difficult to deal with. Some players are clutch and some aren't. We don't know where Welch's legacy will end up, but I can't imagine Welch himself just considers it a coincidence and isn't working to address the issue.

Go Gophers!!

 

[GophersOnTheRise]

Good read GopherWarrior. One point where I disagree though was this statement:

"People will remember some late game missed free throws from Welch, but he was a fine 78% from the line overall. If anything more than coincidence, misses in crunch time are mostly mental and fans should do what Julian needs to do whenever he's at the line - forget about the past. It's just another free throw."

Let's hope it was just a coincidence, but we know it was just a coincidence as well as we know it wasn't...in other words, no one knows. Hitting a FT in the first few minutes of a game is much different than hitting FTs in the final minute of a road BT game. You can't just lump them as the same. I'd rather it be a mechanical issue than a mental one as you suggest, as the latter is more difficult to deal with. Some players are clutch and some aren't. We don't know where Welch's legacy will end up, but I can't imagine Welch himself just considers it a coincidence and isn't working to address the issue.

Go Gophers!!

+1

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Hitting a FT in the first few minutes of a game is much different than hitting FTs in the final minute of a road BT game. You can't just lump them as the same. I'd rather it be a mechanical issue than a mental one as you suggest, as the latter is more difficult to deal with. Some players are clutch and some aren't. We don't know where Welch's legacy will end up, but I can't imagine Welch himself just considers it a coincidence and isn't working to address the issue.

Thanks for the comments... we'll wind up disagreeing on this one.. but, I'd tell you that the only difference between hitting a FT in the final minute of a close conference game and hitting a FT in the final minute of a game you're winning by 25 points is caused by an individual - mentally, if anything. Otherwise, it's precisely the same. The way to address the issue, if there is one, is to just shoot the free throw.

I'd be far more inclined to have a shrink give players some goofy breathing techniques or suggestions on how to not obsess about the consequences of missing a shot when they step to the line than I would anything else. If there is a mechanical issue, absolutely address it with a player. There isn't one for Welch, though. He's a good free throw shooter. He's knocked down shots when fatigued and when fresh. What would he do to "address the issue"?

To me, he missed a few shots because either he just did - missed shots happen - or, he was thinking too much and it got to him. Just shoot like you've done a million times before and things will be fine.

At any rate, he looked like Julian tonight... last year I believe he missed all of the Pro City League because he was still in California until late summer... maybe a little more slim than the end of last year. Played well overall.

Dre was Dre as well.. when his floaters and those pretty jumpers with the high release point start dropping more often, he's going to be quite a weapon.

 

[underground629]

Still avoiding using true shooting percentage when comparing the two.

Julian had a better overall year, but I think you do have to give some more weight to what's done at the end.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Still avoiding using true shooting percentage when comparing the two.

Julian had a better overall year, but I think you do have to give some more weight to what's done at the end.

First, I want to be clear that I'm not knocking Andre Hollins - he's going to be very good. He just happens to be a good comparison for a number of reasons (including the praise that he receives for his 2011-12 performance from some people). The point is that Julian Welch was a lot better than most people give him credit for.

Not avoid the true shooting percentage - I don't refer to it often, nothing to do with these two players - but, the numbers are 59.9% for Welch (best on the team excl Mbakwe), Andre was 55.4% (behind Welch, Rodney, Austin Hollins.. all the guys that played more than him).

Again, I think Dre going forward can be a great story - and with the very high number of games Minnesota played, you could see him dealing well with increased usage. So, if you're talking about what he means to the future, etc.. sure, go ahead and weight based on his progress. That makes complete sense. However, as you say, Julian had a better overall year.

(If you look at the 4 NIT victories, Andre Hollins shot 50.0% eFG and had an assist to turnover ratio of less than 1:1. Julian Welch shot 64.7% eFG and had an assist to turnover ratio of 1:1... while banged up.)

Coming into 2012-13 the Gophers are in a much better/comfortable position with regard to who they can feel good about handling the point than they were last year. It's not a bad thing at all.. I'm just saying it's OK to show Welch a little respect.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Bottom line is if they remain healthy, the Gophers have a very solid 4-guard rotation with the Hollins, Welch and Coleman (even though he plays more like 3), a foursome that has and will continue to compete just fine in the B1G. I don't really care which guard is considered the best, best shooter, etc. I like them as a group, as they all bring something a little different to the table.

The Gophers could be a lot worse off at PG (and they have been in the recent past) than having Andre Hollins and Welch. They'll be fine, and I fully expect them to make significant strides from what were productive first (Gopher) seasons for both.

I'm much more concerned about Mbakwe (will Trevor get back to anywhere near 100% of what he was?) and Walker (coming off 1.5 years of inactivity can Mo give us another serviceable big man to go along with EE?) than I am about our PG situation.

 

[Monty519]

Bottom line is if they remain healthy, the Gophers have a very solid 4-guard rotation with the Hollins, Welch and Coleman (even though he plays more like 3), a foursome that has and will continue to compete just fine in the B1G. I don't really care which guard is considered the best, best shooter, etc. I like them as a group, as they all bring something a little different to the table.

The Gophers could be a lot worse off at PG (and they have been in the recent past) than having Andre Hollins and Welch. They'll be fine, and I fully expect them to make significant strides from what were productive first (Gopher) seasons for both.

I'm much more concerned about Mbakwe (will Trevor get back to anywhere near 100% of what he was?) and Walker (coming off 1.5 years of inactivity can Mo give us another serviceable big man to go along with EE?) than I am about our PG situation.

I agree, our guard situation is good enough to compete well in the B1G. You'd like maybe a little better ball handling from the group, no doubt, but their ability to score from outside will be just as beneficial.

But yeah, the guys coming off injuries in the front court will be crucial. When we start getting pounded on the boards, Mbakwe and Big Mo are going to need to be down there along with EE to dish out some punishment. I can imagine those two starting slowly and then hopefully coming on as B1G season draws near.

 

[underground629]

I agree with most of your points here. However, using effective fg percentage to compare the two performances in the NIT is extremely misleading. You know that. How many fts did Hollins make?? We also needed him to jack up shots. We don't exactly have a lot of players who can create their own shot and he often got stuck with the ball at the end of the shot clock since we don't exactly run the greatest offense.

Can you honestly say that Hollins didn't play far better than Welch in the NIT? I'm sure you'll say that you never said that -- which is true -- but I don't think you can say that you didn't provide the percentages to at least imply that their performances were close. Welch was a factor in the first two games and pretty bad in the rest. Yes, I know he was hurt and didn't play a lot. Dre was also hurt a good amount of the season where he didn't play well and saw limited minutes.

I understand you want to defend Welch and get annoyed that people give Hollins way more credit. It bothers me too. The recency effect is part of the problem. I think you're somewhat downplaying the importance of what Hollins did in the NIT though.

First, I want to be clear that I'm not knocking Andre Hollins - he's going to be very good. He just happens to be a good comparison for a number of reasons (including the praise that he receives for his 2011-12 performance from some people). The point is that Julian Welch was a lot better than most people give him credit for.

Not avoid the true shooting percentage - I don't refer to it often, nothing to do with these two players - but, the numbers are 59.9% for Welch (best on the team excl Mbakwe), Andre was 55.4% (behind Welch, Rodney, Austin Hollins.. all the guys that played more than him).

Again, I think Dre going forward can be a great story - and with the very high number of games Minnesota played, you could see him dealing well with increased usage. So, if you're talking about what he means to the future, etc.. sure, go ahead and weight based on his progress. That makes complete sense. However, as you say, Julian had a better overall year.

(If you look at the 4 NIT victories, Andre Hollins shot 50.0% eFG and had an assist to turnover ratio of less than 1:1. Julian Welch shot 64.7% eFG and had an assist to turnover ratio of 1:1... while banged up.)

Coming into 2012-13 the Gophers are in a much better/comfortable position with regard to who they can feel good about handling the point than they were last year. It's not a bad thing at all.. I'm just saying it's OK to show Welch a little respect.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

I agree with most of your points here.

We're eye to eye on all that you said. I chuckled while adding in the NIT eFG% comments (which I put in parentheses because as you point out, while true it's not very telling of the whole story).

 

[zipsofakron]

Love the level-headed discussion here, guys. It's certainly not a bad thing when you're trying to split hairs about two high-caliber guards. Either way you're in good hands. I think you said it best, GW, when you mentioned that no matter who is on the court the team is in position to cause problems.

Unfortunately, people are generally blinded by missed free throws in crunch time by Welch -- so much so that they forget the clutch threes that he hit throughout the season (as GW pointed out), which is unfair to Julian. In fact, he became one of the top options for a big shot towards the end of the season because you could rely on him as a deep threat - something that no one expected going into the season and probably something that few still recognize. Perhaps more intriguing than Dre Hollins' rise to stardom was Welch's evolution into one of the team's most consistent deep threats. He certainly isn't as flashy, but I'm not sure I'd want anyone else taking the big shot in crunch time than Welch. Andre's rise was amazing, and he's going to be a dangerous weapon, but Welch's contributions to the team throughout the season are severely understated, and not just in a quantifiable sense.

That said, there were some turnover incidents on Welch's behalf in the final minutes that left us scratching our heads a few times. Couple that with the not-so-innocuous FT misses and things start to get a little murky when we're talking about Welch in the clutch. I'm not saying I don't want him taking the big shot, but giving him the offensive reins to make that final play on his own? That's going to have to be Andre's department. It builds on the ying/yang thing we'll have next season with the two, which GW alluded to. Hollins can utilize the "attack the basket" mentality, which he excels at, while Welch can handle clutch shooting duties.

Like I said - we're splitting hairs, and maybe comparing the two side by side isn't fair considering that both have separate weapons in their arsenal and neither is a true point guard. For instance, Welch isn't a slasher and never will be. He probably shouldn't even be expected to be that type of player because it just leads to unnecessary turnovers, much like we saw during the season when he just tried to do too much. Each has their strengths and drawbacks, but both can certainly complement the other on the court or on separate lines.

 

[Parski1]

Dre Hollins will be first team Big Ten at the end of the year. With Mbakwe back Dre will shine big time.

 

[XMan]

Nice write up GW

 

[bemidjigopher]

I feel the hollins' boys, Welch and Coleman give us a very solid backcourt, now that they all have a year under there belts I think they will be more poised and cutdown on the To's Ellenson's a frosh and without injuries he won't be expected to contribute this year, assuming Mav can handle mop up duty, dareI say could we red shirt Wally? In the front court I feel there's enough depth to redshirt Buggs, but that doesn't seem to be Tubby's MO

 

[MinneStoa]

I feel the hollins' boys, Welch and Coleman give us a very solid backcourt, now that they all have a year under there belts I think they will be more poised and cutdown on the To's Ellenson's a frosh and without injuries he won't be expected to contribute this year, assuming Mav can handle mop up duty, dareI say could we red shirt Wally? In the front court I feel there's enough depth to redshirt Buggs, but that doesn't seem to be Tubby's MO

This has been discussed quite a bit all over this forum. The general consensus is that we could probably afford to redshirt at least one--if not both--of the incoming freshmen, due to the relative depth of their natural positions. Unfortunately, that would leave us in a very tough place scholarship-wise, as we'd then have 5 scholarships available for 2017 and 0 for 2016.

 

[GoldenUMNGopher]

I think Dre will got nuts this year. Welch worries me though. Really tailed off at the end of the year, and was almost a liability at clutch time. I hope he turns it around. Best combo we've had in a while.

 

[GophersOnTheRise]

I think Dre will got nuts this year. Welch worries me though. Really tailed off at the end of the year, and was almost a liability at clutch time. I hope he turns it around. Best combo we've had in a while.

To be fair, he did hit some clutch threes. Free throws and turnovers not so much though. I think he'll be a solid sixth man who can knock down shots when we need them. Hopefully get some steals too. He's no where near as quick as Nolen was, but his hands are pretty quick and has a knack for causing turnovers.

 

[GophersInIowa]

To be fair, he did hit some clutch threes. Free throws and turnovers not so much though. I think he'll be a solid sixth man who can knock down shots when we need them. Hopefully get some steals too. He's no where near as quick as Nolen was, but his hands are pretty quick and has a knack for causing turnovers.

Yeah I think people remember the missed free throws and forget the 3-pointers. His 3-point percentage was pretty steady throughout the year. In fact, it went up just a big in the last dozen or so games of the season.

 

[oleboy41]

I think Dre will got nuts this year. Welch worries me though. Really tailed off at the end of the year, and was almost a liability at clutch time. I hope he turns it around. Best combo we've had in a while.

Doubt Dre goes nuts this year. Rodney and Trevor will both hopefully score around 13-16 pts per game and I don't think he'll dominate the ball like he did at the end of last year which is a good thing. With Rodney's increasing confidence and skill, when Mbakwe is at the 5 and Rodney at the 4 we'll have 5 capable scorers on the court including 1 legit post threat. Hopefully Dre takes about 8-12 shots per game.

 

[scher215]

Yeah I think people remember the missed free throws and forget the 3-pointers. His 3-point percentage was pretty steady throughout the year. In fact, it went up just a big in the last dozen or so games of the season.

Welch shot at a percentage similar to Hoffarber from 3. I will take that any day of the week. Slower release, but any time you can shoot +40% from 3 in the Big 10 you are doing something right.

Especially with the "clutch gene" he demonstrated on some of those 3's (free throws were a completely different story though, Skip may struggle with this guy.)

 

[Monty519]

Doubt Dre goes nuts this year. Rodney and Trevor will both hopefully score around 13-16 pts per game and I don't think he'll dominate the ball like he did at the end of last year which is a good thing. With Rodney's increasing confidence and skill, when Mbakwe is at the 5 and Rodney at the 4 we'll have 5 capable scorers on the court including 1 legit post threat. Hopefully Dre takes about 8-12 shots per game.

I can agree with this assessment. I don't want him to feel he has to force anything at all this year, like he kinda did late last year. Hopefully Trev comes back at a high level and he can kinda just keep the offense moving without having to take a ton of shots.