College QBs - Blue Bloods or Grinders?

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fmlizard

fmlizard

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I've noticed that the current top 2 NFL QB prospects just happen to play for the two national finalists - Burrow and Lawrence. The two prior years, the #1 pick was a QB from Oklahoma who also played in the CFP. The next guys likely picked in 2020 played for Alabama and #5 Oregon. In the CFP era there seems to be a strong winner-take-all trend where in theory, all the top QB prospects cluster at contending programs. Some of that is changes to the transfer rules and norms.

That would represent a new trend. Look at this list. It's a little misleading because it tracks a few week 17 one-off starters and injury replacements. Sub in Stafford (Georgia) for Blough (Purdue) and Haskins (OSU) for Keenum (Houston) - the rest of the backups are from similar status programs. It doesn't change the math much.

23 of the 32 NFL regular starting QBs played for college programs where they didn't have all the advantages, and would not be considered CFP level programs in their time, or today. The blue blood QBs are:

Kyler Murray - Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield - Oklahoma (former walk-on)
DeShaun Watson - Clemson
Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State
Cam Newton - Auburn
Jameis Winston - FSU
Sam Darnold - USC (wasn't elite during his tenure)
Tom Brady - Michigan (didn't start all the time)
Matt Stafford - Georgia

5 of them were drafted Rd 1 in the past 3 years and Winston may wind up a washout. At least a couple of the newbies will fail. Watson seems like a sure hit. The rest of the great NFL QBs went to places like Cal, Michigan State, NC State, MAC schools, etc

The point here is - are NFL teams looking too hard at the CFP star QBs and are they better off looking for the Tanner Morgans of the world, to use a familiar example? The stars with NFL staying power mostly cut their teeth at places where they had to lift up average programs, not coast on the backs of their star teammates.
 

I definitely disagree that Darnold wasn't elite during his tenure. He had some issues with ball security in his second season starting, but he set the world on first his first year and was hyped up the entire time.
 

Players are evaluated individually. There's no "right or wrong" set of schools to pick from. You have to also remember that you're looking at a very small list of "blue blood" schools so it's not surprising that there are more non-traditional power starting QB's in the NFL. I get what you're trying to say, but I think your whole premise is flawed here.
 

Statistics do not get a QB to the NFL. Think of all the QBs Mike Leach has coached over the years and who have put up video game numbers and either did not make it to the NFL, or didn't last in the NFL. Many times the "system" allows the QB to flourish but that doesn't make them NFL quality QBs.

I know we all love/appreciate Tanner. He's been fantastic at and for Minnesota. But, I do not think he'll make it in the NFL based on his measurables.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Players are evaluated individually. There's no "right or wrong" set of schools to pick from. You have to also remember that you're looking at a very small list of "blue blood" schools so it's not surprising that there are more non-traditional power starting QB's in the NFL. I get what you're trying to say, but I think your whole premise is flawed here.
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To add on to this, quite a few of the Blue Blood schools that have had recent success have generally been primarily defensive focused teams, which doesn't ask a lot of their QBs. This includes LSU and Alabama until the last twoish years.
 


BeerFueledFF said:
To add on to this, quite a few of the Blue Blood schools that have had recent success have generally been primarily defensive focused teams, which doesn't ask a lot of their QBs. This includes LSU and Alabama until the last twoish years.
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Those schools also haven't put out significant pro QB prospects until Tua and Burrow came along and they became much less defensively focused. LSU had mega-bust Jamarcus Russell and that's it.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
I definitely disagree that Darnold wasn't elite during his tenure. He had some issues with ball security in his second season starting, but he set the world on first his first year and was hyped up the entire time.
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Darnold was elite, but USC wasn't on that level. Looking back while they weren't CFP level they did make some NY6 bowls his later years.
 

Hate the Badgers, but Russell Wilson had them at #4 in the country when Kirk Cousin's Hail Mary pass beat them in Week 8. One of the most glorious college football plays in recent history. They were very much in the Championship discussion up until that point.
 

When you are surrounded with the best athletes out there, it's a lot easier as a QB to look fantastic. Also, there isn't a lot of brains in some of those guys listed that ended up as starting QBs at those blue blood programs. They might have big arms, can run the ball, etc. The NFL takes a lot more thinking than does the college game. Your athleticm alone won't get you by in that league.
 



Go Gophs said:
When you are surrounded with the best athletes out there, it's a lot easier as a QB to look fantastic. Also, there isn't a lot of brains in some of those guys listed that ended up as starting QBs at those blue blood programs. They might have big arms, can run the ball, etc. The NFL takes a lot more thinking than does the college game. Your athleticm alone won't get you by in that league.
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This is the theory of the OP. While QBs are evaluated on their own merits, does a guy look better because he's got lots of time to throw, NFL receivers, favorable game situations, etc to work with compared to the guy who hauls Purdue or Mississippi State into relevance.
 

I am not a QB evaluator expert.

I hear stuff about Tanner's arm not being strong.

Then I watch games where the OL struggles and Tanner fearlessly stands in there ... gets knocked back to like 2nd and 20 or 30 and, rolls out right on time (not too early not too late) ... steps right in there and delivers strikes with accuracy like he's throwing in a casual practice.... dude can PLAY.
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
Hate the Badgers, but Russell Wilson had them at #4 in the country when Kirk Cousin's Hail Mary pass beat them in Week 8. One of the most glorious college football plays in recent history. They were very much in the Championship discussion up until that point.
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I sort of assign Wilson to NC State, who at one point in 2019 had 4 NFL starting QBs! He played much more for them than the badgers. wisconsin is in a gray area of "blue blood" but they were awesome that year.
 

Lamar Jackson had a huge impact on the league this year. Granted, they laid an egg in the playoffs. But they were #1 seed for a reason.

Mahomes another strong one.
 



Why would any of this be different since it's the CFP era vs BCS? That just makes no logical sense. Again, scouts are evaluating these guys as individual players, not "QB of the team that won the CFP". We can all cherry pick plenty of examples:

- Why didn't Cardale Jones get drafted early after winning the first CFP?
- How about Blake Sims from Alabama?
- Brandon Wimbush from ND?

etc.
 

MplsGopher said:
Lamar Jackson had a huge impact on the league this year. Granted, they laid an egg in the playoffs. But they were #1 seed for a reason.

Mahomes another strong one.
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Exactly. Texas Tech and Louisville.
 

Well...any longer time fan knows NFL scouts, coaches, data analysts aren’t that great at evaluating QBs to make the jump. Educated guesses, wishful thinking.

Interesting statistical approach here

fivethirtyeight.com

The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

We built a model to predict which college QBs will see success in the pros.
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
 

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