College Hoops Notebook (Jan. 26)

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
24,359
Reaction score
4,372
Points
113
What's happened and what's ahead in the world of college basketball. All RPI rankings are courtesy of Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com

Tracking My Preseason Final 4
1. Duke (18-1)
7. North Carolina (16-2)
9. Louisville (15-3)
19. Arizona State (16-3)

Mr. Bracketology Stuff
**In his latest bracket projection (Jan. 26), Joe Lunardi has the Gophers as a 7 seed in the West Region playing #10 Florida State in Kansas City. Lunardi's projected matchups for the Metrodome are: #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Austin Peay; #7 Tennessee vs. #10 Dayton; #3 Marquette vs. #14 Vermont; and #6 Kansas vs. #11 UNLV.

Tracking the Gophers' Nonconference Opponents
9. Louisville (15-3, 6-0 Big East)
98. Cornell (10-6, 2-0 Ivy)
102. Virginia (7-9, 1-4 ACC)
117. North Dakota State (12-5, 8-1 Summit)
159. Colorado State (7-12, 2-4 Mountain West)
197. Eastern Washington (8-11, 3-5 Big Sky)
206. Bowling Green (7-9, 2-3 MAC)
261. South Dakota State (6-13, 3-6 Summit)
273. Southeastern Louisiana (4-10, 2-3 Southland)
292. Georgia State (3-15, 3-6 Colonial)
333. High Point (2-14, 1-8 Big South)

Gophers' Nonconference SOS = 242 of 343 (bottom 29.4%). Last week was #239.

Winning on the Road in the BCS Conferences
What's the toughest BCS conference for teams to win on the road? Here's the percentage of games won by the road team, from toughest to easiest.

1. Big 12 -- 9 of 27 (33.3%)
2. Big 10 -- 15 of 39 (38.5%)
3. SEC -- 11 of 28 (39.3%)
4. ACC -- 14 of 31 (45.2%)
5. Big East -- 26 of 55 -- (47.3%)
6. Pac 10 -- 18 of 36 (50%)

Quick-Hitters
**The Gophers lost a top-100 win on their resume (Virginia) but added it right back when Cornell (#98) inched into the top 100.

**If President Obama can work magic as quickly as his brother-in-law (Craig Robinson) has at Oregon State, then we'll have quite a president on our hands. The job Robinson has done in his first season at Oregon State is nothing short of amazing. Undoubtedly the worst BCS team in all of Division I last season (0-18 in the Pac 10) and arguably the worst BCS program in recent times, the Beavers are 3-5 in the Pac 10 (6-10 overall) with a serviceable RPI of #145 after sweeping the Bay Area road trip last week. It's fun watching a transformation like that take place; you can see it in the players' faces. The Beavers clearly are headed in the right direction.

**It continues to be a weak year for at-large teams, which is good news for teams like the Gophers. Much like when the Gophers made the tournament in 2004-05, at this juncture it appears the Selection Committee's main charge will be finding 34 worthy at-large teams, as opposed to having too many & having to exclude a few and send them packing for the NIT. I still think 10-8 in the Big 10 will safely get the Gophers into the NCAA, but as we get closer to March I'm starting to lean toward thinking 9-9 might be enough. There just aren't that many viable at-large candidates at this point. Case in point Notre Dame, who the talking heads continue to consider a a lock for the NCAA, despite a close look at their resume which reveals otherwise. Nevertheless, consider yourself warned. ... don't assume 9-9 heading into the Big Ten Tournament is "lock city" for the Gophers.

**With the Gophers' chances of ending up on the bubble being at least 50-50, it's not too early to start wishing "ill will" on other potential bubble teams. Here are some teams (outside of the Big 10) Gopher fans want to see falter down the stretch: Boston College, BYU, Dayton, Illinois State, LSU, Maryland, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Providence, Saint Joseph's, San Diego State, South Carolina, Stanford, Temple, Texas A&M, USC & Utah.

**There likely will be five or six 1-bid leagues that could become 2-bid leagues if the heavy favorite doesn't roll through their conference tournament. Come conference tournament time, all bubble teams will be united in their support of: Butler (Horizon), Davidson (SoCon), Memphis (Conference USA), Siena (Metro Atlantic), Utah State (WAC) & Xavier (Atlantic 10).
 

Thank you for the continued postings, SS. Always a good read.

A few follow up questions, if you don't mind:

* If you had the chance, would you make any changes to your pre-season FF?
* Who do you see as a potential high seed to go 'one & done'?
* How about a Cinderella (low seed to make S16 or E8)? I realize it might be too early as a possible bubble team may become a Cindy, but I am curious nonetheless.

Thank you & I look forward to reading your responses!
 

Thanks Goldy. To answer your questions. ...

1. I stick to my preseason Final 4 picks, but if I could change one it would be UConn, Michigan State or Pitt replacing Arizona State. That said, I still like ASU as long as Harden & Pendergraph are healthy. ASU is not a team that's going to blow you out, but they have the requisite superstar (Harden) to carry them a long ways.

2. UCLA. Ben Howland is an excellent coach, but I don't like this UCLA team. Good candidate to fall in the first round or fail to make it to the 2nd weekend.

3. For Cinderella can I choose 2? I'll go with Buffalo from the MAC or Utah State from the WAC. However, both (especially Buffalo) may need to win their conference tourney just to get in.
 

SS,

Do you think that Siena has to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAA's?? I think that they do.
 

Siena is an interesting case

Siena is what we like to call a "RPI tiger". Have a fantastic RPI (#20), but the Saints have zero -- count 'em zero -- wins vs. the top 50 in the RPI. Their RPI is good because they've played a very difficult nonconference schedule (#4 in the country) and because they've defeated a lot of top-100 teams (7). The problem perception-wise is they lost all 4 of their "marquee" games. ... Kansas, Oklahoma State, Pitt & Tennessee. That's not a good recipe for earning an at-large bid.

I agree with you, I think Siena needs to win the MAAC Tournament. I would have a hard time justifying taking an at-large team without any top-50 wins. However, it has happened before. UAB received an at-large bid in 2005 without a top-50 win, but that was the exception, not the rule.
 


SS,

Thanks for the answer...I didn't realize their RPI is that high. Thanks again for the response!
 




Top Bottom