College Hoops Notebook (Jan. 12)

[SelectionSunday]

What's happened and what's ahead in the world of college basketball, along with a weekly "Field of 65" projection. All RPI rankings are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

The Unbeatables (3)
And then there were 3: Illinois State falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in a big way, losing twice. Here's where the unbeatens sit in the RPI, and who they play next.

1. Pitt (Wednesday: South Florida)
3. Clemson (Saturday: Wake Forest)
15. Wake Forest (Wednesday: at Boston College)

Tracking My Preseason Final Four
2. Duke (14-1)
8. North Carolina (13-2)
18. Louisville (11-3)
24. Arizona State (14-2)

Joe Lunardi Bracketology Stuff
**In his latest NCAA bracket projection (Jan. 5), ESPN.com's "Mr. Bracketology" has the Gophers as a #6 seed in the West Region playing #11 Stanford (in Dayton).

**For those of you who purchased tickets to the first and second rounds at the Dome, Lunardi has these matchups: #5 Purdue vs. #12 Florida State; #4 Louisville vs. #13 George Mason; #6 Cal vs. #11 Dayton; and #3 Michigan State vs. #14 Cornell.

BCS Conferences Head to Head
1. ACC (26-18)
2. Big Ten (19-17)
3. Big East (21-19)
4. Big 12 (19-21)
5. Pac 10 (13-17)
6. SEC (15-21)

Tracking the Gophers' Nonconference Opponents
18. Louisville (11-3, 2-0 Big East)
80. Virginia (7-6, 1-1 ACC)
107. Cornell (7-6)
159. Bowling Green (6-6, 1-0 MAC)
167. Eastern Washington (8-8, 3-2 Big Sky)
168. North Dakota State (8-5, 5-1 Summit)
178. Colorado State (5-10, 0-2 Mountain West)
246. South Dakota State (6-10, 3-3 Summit)
254. Southeastern Louisiana (2-8, 0-1 Southland)
288. Georgia State (2-12, 2-3 Colonial)
336. High Point (2-10, 1-4 Big South)

Gophers' Nonconference SOS = 233 of 343 (bottom 32%). Last week was #255.

Is it Really That Tough to Win on the Road?
Watching (too many) games on TV it seems like every announcing crew touts how difficult it is to win on the road in the (fill in the blank) conference. Can it really be that tough to win on the road in every single conference? Among the 6 BCS conferences, here's the percentage of games won by the road teams so far (conference games only).

1. Big East (15 of 29, 51.7%)
2. ACC (5 of 10, 50%)
3. Pac 10 (8 of 17, 47.1%)
4. SEC (2 of 6, 33.3%)
5. Big 10 (6 of 19, 31.6%)
6. Big 12 (1 of 6, 16.7%)

Get Out the Clicker
Monday: Notre Dame at Louisville, Texas at Oklahoma; Tuesday: Kentucky at Tennessee, Memphis at Tulsa; Wednesday: Baylor at Texas A&M, Maryland at Miami-Florida, Michigan at Illinois, Michigan State at Penn State, Syracuse at Georgetown, Wake Forest at Boston College; Thursday: Arizona at UCLA, Gophers at Wisconsin, Xavier at Rhode Island; Saturday: Arizona State at UCLA, Arkansas at Florida, Boise State at Utah State, Cal at Stanford, Georgetown at Duke, Illinois at Michigan State, Marquette at Providence, Maryland at Florida State, Miami-Florida at North Carolina, Notre Dame at Syracuse, Ohio State at Michigan, Oklahoma at Texas A&M, Oklahoma State at Baylor, Pitt at Louisville, South Carolina at Tennessee, Wake Forest at Clemson

Quick Hitters
**After watching the Gophers completely dismantle a decent Penn State squad, I allowed myself to to utter these words out loud for the first time: "The Gophers are a NCAA-quality team." The question now is, will the Gophers win enough games in the Big Ten to earn a bid? I'll be completely convinced if/when the Gophers beat one of these teams. ... Wisconsin, Illinois or Michigan State.

**Beware of frauds? These teams have built up gaudy records, but I'm not yet convinced they're NCAA quality squads: Florida State, Illinois State, LSU, Maryland, Mizzou, Penn State, South Carolina & Washington.

**Continue to be amazed at what a difference (less than) two years can make. While looking at the corners of Williams Arena being mostly full yesterday vs. Penn State (almost the Gophers' third straight sellout), my thoughts again drifted back to the Clemson debacle just over two years ago. The Barn isn't completely back yet, but it's getting there.

**Evanston calling? With a three-day weekend ahead, might be a good time for a road trip to see the Gophers play Northwestern. No matter what happens in Madison on Thursday, the Northwestern game will be a huge (and I mean huge) outcome for the Gophers. If you're a Big Ten team & you're chasing a NCAA bid, there are certain games you CAN NOT afford to lose, no matter how improved a team may be. Beating the Wildcats is one of those games.

**If Michigan State wants to run away and hide from the rest of the Big Ten, and be considered among the nation's very elite 4-5 teams, it must win both of its games this week (at Penn State, Illinois at home). After an embarrassing loss to Penn State last season in Happy Valley, there is zero excuse for Sparty not to be rarin' to go from the get-go at usually lifeless Bryce-Jordan Center.

**Long Beach State (9-7) continues to thrive under former Gophers coach Dan Monson. The 49ers lead the Big West with a 4-0 conference mark and have a respectable RPI ranking of #97.

**Maybe North Carolina isn't quite as invincible as the talking heads at ESPN thought? From possibly "running the table" this season and "one of the best teams of all time" to 0-2 in the ACC? Who saw that coming? Either the Tar Heels were vastly overrated to begin with (for what it's worth I'd still call UNC the favorite to win it all) or the ACC is historically strong this season (not a chance).

**The Mountain West appears to be one of the most improved conferences. There's a decent chance the MWC will get three bids on Selection Sunday, with BYU, San Diego State, UNLV & Utah all in the mix to this point. Look for BYU to finally win a first-round game, something it hasn't done since 1993, spanning six NCAA appearances.

FIELD OF 65 PROJECTION (1/12/09)
Automatic Bids (31): Duke (2), Michigan State (4), Butler (5), Xavier (7), Oklahoma (9), Cal (11), Syracuse (12), Memphis (14), Miami-Ohio (16), Tennessee (26), St. Mary's (29), Davidson (30), Siena (35), San Diego State (45), Boise State (48), George Mason (55), Bradley (59), Stephen F. Austin (70), American (76), VMI (87), Weber State (94), Long Beach State (97), Binghamton (108), Austin Peay (117), East Tennessee (120), Morgan State (130), Robert Morris (148), Middle Tennessee (153), North Dakota State (168), Harvard (206), Alabama State (233)

At-Large Bids (34): Clemson (3), North Carolina (8), Wake Forest (15), Miami-Florida (41), Maryland (72), Dayton (42), Pitt (1), UConn (6), Georgetown (10), Louisville (18), West Virginia (22), Marquette (25), Notre Dame (62), Wisconsin (13), GOPHERS (20), Ohio State (27), Illinois (28), Michigan (33), Purdue (67), Oklahoma State (19), Texas (23), Baylor (44), Texas A&M (47), Kansas (49), Utah (21), BYU (34), Arizona State (24), Washington (37), UCLA (38), Arizona (58), Florida (40), Arkansas (63), Gonzaga (17), Utah State (53)

Non-BCS At-Larges (5): Gonzaga (17), Utah (21), BYU (34), Dayton (42), Utah State (53)

Last 4 In: Utah (21), Washington (37), Kansas (49), Utah State (53)

First 4 Out: Villanova (31), Florida State (32), Boston College (61), Kentucky (68)

10 to Watch: Stanford (46), Rhode Island (50), UNLV (51), Illinois State (54), Mizzou (56), Virginia Tech (57), Northeastern (66), Tulsa (75), Providence (79), South Carolina (86)

The SS Mailbag
Dear Selection Sunday,

Most overrated team in the country. ... give it to me straight.

-- Rick P, Louisville, KY --

Dear Rick,

A week ago I would have had a certain team from the Big East nicknamed the Cardinals at the top of my list, but that team appears to be awaking from its early-season lethargy. I'll go with a little bit of a surprise, the OU Sooners. I really, really, really like Blake Griffin, and the Sooners are pretty good. However, I'm not sure the Sooners are an elite team. Right now if I had to pick one highly ranked team that won't make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, it would be Boomer Sooner.

 

[bga1]

SS- With a minute or so to go in the game, Tubby went to the deep bench to have J Williams and Payton do the Hosea Crittenden honors. At that point I considered the fact that these two were our starting point guard and starting center at times two years ago. That's a serious upgrade in talent. By the way - I think Payton is a terrific kid. he's always the leading cheerleader for the team and that shows a ton of class. Long term that's more important than being a starter IMO.

A few years back some of these guys would have come into the program and never fully have gotten it because of the lack of depth we had. A guy with talent could come in and play like he always had because there was no choices on the bench. Now a player coming in has no choice but to play within the system or he will never hit the floor and no one will miss him. That's a huge motivator. K Hump for one would have greatly benefitted long term from a situation like this.

 

[Gopherholefan]

SS,

Why do you always post our "non-conference" SOS and never our overally SOS?? Isn't the overall SOS the number that will be used on SS?? Just wondering why you do this. I love your work on the notebook and the daily big ten RPI numbers and thoroughly enjoy reading both.

 

[Blizzard]

SS- With a minute or so to go in the game, Tubby went to the deep bench to have J Williams and Payton do the Hosea Crittenden honors. At that point I considered the fact that these two were our starting point guard and starting center at times two years ago. That's a serious upgrade in talent. By the way - I think Payton is a terrific kid. he's always the leading cheerleader for the team and that shows a ton of class. Long term that's more important than being a starter IMO.

Just a quick point about Williams - I think both RSIII and Iverson should be getting a lot of benefits practicing against him and his large frame and that shouldn't be overlooked as his contribution to the team even though he's being given " token " minutes. I agree with the leading cheerleading roles. Everyone including the bench or guys getting the least amount of minutes are important to the team.

 

[Lincoln gopher]

Great job once again SS. Agree with you on the "Beware of Fraud" statement. Missouri is not playing well at all. Watched them get beat by a severely undersized and mediocre Nebraska team Saturday. Don't know how they were ranked at one point.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Nonconferene SOS

Gopherholefan,

Thanks. It's more of a preference than anything. I put more stock in a team's nonconference SOS (who you play outside your league, the games you can control) than their overall SOS. I'm sure the Selection Committee looks at both, but most everything I hear is the Selection Committee looks long and hard at teams that play difficult non-league schedules.

 

[MNSnowman]

here's a couple of conferences where there's no home advantage

MEAC and Southwestern. Of course their teams don't play much at home in pre-conference play since they're the Div I versions of the Washington Generals ... nor do they get televised much.