College Hoops Notebook (Feb. 2)

[SelectionSunday]

What's happened and what's ahead in the world of college basketball. All RPI rankings are courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

Tracking My Preseason Final 4
1. Duke (19-2)
4. North Carolina (18-2)
10. Louisville (17-3)
45. Arizona State (16-5)

Mr. Bracketology Stuff
Joe Lunardi has the Gophers as the #5 seed in the East Region playing #12 BYU (in Portland). Projected for the Metrodome are: #2 Marquette vs. #15 Weber State; #7 Mizzou vs. #10 Florida State; #3 Michigan State vs. #14 Vermont; and #6 Washington vs. #11 Utah State.

Tracking the Gophers' Nonconference Opponents
10. Louisville (17-3, 8-0 Big East)
96. Cornell (12-6, 4-0 Ivy)
97. Virginia (7-10, 1-5 ACC)
98. North Dakota State (14-5, 10-1 Summit)
163. Bowling Green (9-9, 4-3 MAC)
169. Colorado State (7-14, 2-6 Mountain West)
211. Eastern Washington (8-13, 3-7 Big Sky)
251. South Dakota State (8-13, 5-6 Summit)
259. Southeastern Louisiana (5-11, 3-4 Southland)
269. Georgia State (4-16, 4-7 Colonial)
332. High Point (2-16, 1-10 Big South)

Gophers' Nonconference SOS = 218 of 343 (bottom 36.4%). Last week was #242.

Winning on the Road in the BCS
The most difficult BCS conference for teams to win on the road? Here's the percentage of games won by the road team, from toughest to easiest.
T1. Big 12 & SEC -- 15 of 39 (38.5%)
3. Big 10 -- 19 of 49 (38.8%)
4. Big East -- 28 of 70 (40%)
5. ACC -- 18 of 41 (43.9%)
6. Pac 10 -- 20 of 45 (44.4%)

Quick Hitters
**Don't look now but Northwestern is a viable at-large candidate. Who else is pulling for Northwestern to earn a NCAA bid, as long as it doesn't come at the expense of the Gophers?

**I'm not so sure Penn State beating Michigan State in East Lansing was a good thing if you're a Gopher fan. If the Gophers don't beat Sparty on Wednesday and somehow end up sharing the bubble with Penn State (still possible despite the 6-3 start), the Nittany Lions will have two quality W's within the conference the Gophers' won't have. ... over Michigan State and Purdue, the likely top two finishers in the conference. Currently I still like the Gophers' resume over Penn State's by a significant margin, but the Nittany Lions' win in Breslin has made the Big Ten's at-large picture even more intriguing.

**Split their two-game road trip this week and I'll officially say the Gophers become about a "80% lock" for the NCAA Tournament. Lose 'em both and their NCAA status remains about the same. ... some margin for error, but very little.

**The good news? The Gophers' at-large profile is gradually improving thanks to the efforts of Louisville, Cornell and North Dakota State. Louisville for obvious reasons, while Cornell (#96) and the Bison (#98) have crept into the top 100. Virginia (#97), despite a 1-5 record in the ACC, also cracks the century mark giving the Gophers four top-100 wins outside the conference. I would advise Gopher fans to root for all four of those teams to perform well down the stretch, just in case.

**My Field of 65 projection (see below) this week has some significant changes, with the Pac 10 and SEC gaining three bids between them. LSU becoming the conference's automatic qualifier and South Carolina's win at Kentucky helps the SEC, while the re-emergence of USC and Arizona has breathed life into the Pac 10's at-large possibilities. Still looks like there won't be many worthy non-BCS at-larges. St. Mary's losing Patrick Mills for a month probably means the Gaels will have to win the WCC Tournament to earn a bid. Dayton helped its cause immensely by beating a solid Saint Joseph's squad over the weekend.

Field of 65 Projection (2/2/09)
This week I'm going to list the 65 teams in order of their RPI. Those of you who take a peek at this every week, feel free to let me know which method your prefer. By conference or by RPI?

1. Duke (ACC automatic)
2. Pitt (Big East at-large)
3. Oklahoma (Big 12 automatic)
4. North Carolina (ACC at-large)
5. Michigan State (Big 10 automatic)
6. UConn (Big East at-large)
7. Xavier (A-10 automatic)
8. Clemson (ACC at-large)
9. Butler (Horizon automatic)
10. Louisville (Big East automatic)
11. Memphis (C-USA automatic)
12. Villanova (Big East at-large)
13. Marquette (Big East at-large)
14. Wake Forest (ACC at-large)
15. Utah (Mountain West automatic)
16. West Virginia (Big East at-large)
17. Illinois (Big 10 at-large)
18. Georgetown (Big East at-large)
19. Tennessee (SEC at-large)
20. Siena (MAAC automatic)
21. Washington (Pac 10 automatic)
22. GOPHERS (Big 10 at-large)
23. Kansas (Big 12 at-large)
24. Syracuse (Big East at-large)
25. Purdue (Big 10 at-large)
27. Florida State (ACC at-large)
28. Mizzou (Big 12 at-large)
29. Texas (Big 12 at-large)
30. Davidson (SoCon automatic)
31. UCLA (Pac 10 at-large)
32. Dayton (A-10 at-large)
33. Ohio State (Big 10 at-large)
34. BYU (Mountain West at-large)
35. Florida (SEC at-large)
36. Texas A&M (Big 12 at-large)
38. Virginia Tech (ACC at-large)
39. Gonzaga (West Coast automatic)
40. Utah State (WAC automatic)
41. Cal (Pac 10 at-large)
42. USC (Pac 10 at-large)
43. Baylor (Big 12 at-large)
45. Arizona State (Pac 10 at-large)
46. South Carolina (SEC at-large)
47. UNLV (Mountain West at-large)
51. Boston College (ACC at-large)
55. LSU (SEC automatic)
57. Northeastern (Colonial automatic)
62. Arizona (Pac 10 at-large)
68. Kentucky (SEC at-large)
71. Buffalo (MAC automatic)
73. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley automatic)
87. Stephen F. Austin (Southland automatic)
96. Cornell (Ivy automatic)
98. North Dakota State (Summit automatic)
114. VMI (Big South automatic)
116. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt automatic)
121. Vermont (America East automatic)
122. Weber State (Big Sky automatic)
127. East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun automatic)
145. Robert Morris (Northeast automatic)
150. Long Beach State (Big West automatic)
152. Morehead State (Ohio Valley automatic)
171. Holy Cross (Patriot automatic)
179. Morgan State (MEAC automatic)
236. Alabama State (SWAC automatic)

Last 4 In: Georgetown (18), USC (42), Arizona (62), Kentucky (68)

First 4 Out: Oklahoma State (26), Miami-Florida (49), Northwestern (56), Penn State (66)

7 to Watch: Temple (48), St. Mary's (50), San Diego State (53), Michigan (54), Providence (63), Rhode Island (64), Maryland (80)

Multiple-Bid Leagues: Big East (8), ACC (7), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (6), Big 10 (5), SEC (5), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2)

Non-BCS At-Larges (3): Dayton (32), BYU (34), UNLV (47)

At-Large Differences with Joe Lunardi (2): Lunardi has Penn State and St. Mary's in, I have Arizona & Texas A&M in their place.

At-Large Differences with Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com (1): Palm has Oklahoma State in, I have Arizona in their place.

 

[Gopherholefan]

Like the way you did that Selection... Where has the final SS Mailbag question been the last couple of weeks?

 

[SelectionSunday]

No one sends me SS Mailbag questions, so I've quit making them up. I'd prefer people actually send me a question or two (via private message) so I don't have to come up with the questions all by myself. I won't accept questions for the Notebook if they are posted here.

 

[Gopherholefan]

ah Ok, I didn't know you accepted questions for the mailbag, I thought it was just a made-up bit... I will have to start sending some into you.