Coaches Hot Seat

[PapaHawk21]

Is Brewster's job contingent on wins alone or will he be kept even with a poor record if the hierarchy believes progress is being made? Just looking for some honest thoughts and discourse.

http://www.coacheshotseat.com/

 

[SMU GOPHS FAN]

I personally think if they go 5-7 or 6-6 but are competitive in the losses and they win at least one trophy game he will be back. Anything less than that and I think it is time to bring someone else in. I see his vision and I see what he is trying to build, but I need to see more proof that he can get us there.

 

[PapaHawk21]

I personally think if they go 5-7 or 6-6 but are competitive in the losses and they win at least one trophy game he will be back. Anything less than that and I think it is time to bring someone else in. I see his vision and I see what he is trying to build, but I need to see more proof that he can get us there.

Yeah I agree. Winning one trophy game would probably solidify another year for Coach Brewster. Granted, if the gophers only win 3 games, which includes beating Iowa or Wisconsin, then he will probably will be and should be fired.

 

[husker70]

The hottest seat in the Big 10

Is in Ann Arbor. Rich Rod is a dead man walking.

 

[PapaHawk21]

Is in Ann Arbor. Rich Rod is a dead man walking.

His job is completely contingent on wins. I think he needs at least 8 to keep his job. Anything less, unless he beats Ohio State, will result in his termination.

 

[husker70]

The chances of either are slim. Add to that an irrate alumni, and former Players. And Rich Rod is not a Michigan Man. He's gone.

 

[Governor Sibley]

Four years without a trophy game and without going .500 in the B10 would be bad.

My long-standing criteria for success of the program as a whole: going .500 in the B10 and .500 against our rivals over the course of a decade. If we average these numbers over a ten-year period, then we're doing well. It means we have a 2-6 in there, but we also have a 6-2 year.

 

[PapaHawk21]

Four years without a trophy game and without going .500 in the B10 would be bad.

My long-standing criteria for success of the program as a whole: going .500 in the B10 and .500 against our rivals over the course of a decade. If we average these numbers over a ten-year period, then we're doing well. It means we have a 2-6 in there, but we also have a 6-2 year.

Those standards seem reasonable. If Brewster loses to Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa this year is he fired (assuming he loses a few other games too)?

 

[gophergrad]

Those standards seem reasonable. If Brewster loses to Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa this year is he fired (assuming he loses a few other games too)?

If he doesn't win a trophy game in 2010 he'll probably have to pull an upset over USC or win out his other games/do very well in a bowl game. Even with losses in rivalry games, sub .500 big 10 record and/or a bowl game loss I can see Maturi bringing him back in 2011 but in a Rich Rod/Ron Zook kind of way.

 

[GoldInDirt]

Those standards seem reasonable. If Brewster loses to Penn State, Wisconsin and Iowa this year is he fired (assuming he loses a few other games too)?

No because we will be underdog to those teams, Ohio State and Michigan State. We will likely be favored in six games. Thus Vegas will say we should be 6-6. Thus he's expected to win six games, it will be a disappointment to win five games and it will be a surprise if he wins 7 games (if we're favored in the rest of the games).

 

[Sparlimb]

The real question we should be asking ourselves is does the U have the money to fire him and is Macturi man enough to pull the trigger on his big hire? I'm guessing no, so I could see us being in a Dan Hawkins-like lame duck season next year. Granted we could win 8 games this year and put it to rest, but I don't see that happening.

 

[Rosemountian]

5+ wins and he is back. Period
4 wins and looking good at the end of the season and he is back
4 wins with them all being early season wins and he is gone
3 or less wins and he is gone.


Not saying that this is how it should be. I am saying this is how it is.

 

[Great Plains Gopher]

Five wins might be acceptable if the Gophers are competitive in some big games and can knock off at least one ranked team - say, Penn State or Iowa. If they look bad in losing and win only five - against lesser opponents - it may be curtains. It might all come down to the Iowa game.

 

[Mick Turition]

I mostly agree with Rosemountain, but 4 wins early with no late season blow-outs and he stays another year for sure. Even 4 wins early and one blow-out and he stays. 4 early wins and getting crushed at home in a trophy game at home and he is probably gone.

 

[PapaHawk21]

I mostly agree with Rosemountain, but 4 wins early with no late season blow-outs and he stays another year for sure. Even 4 wins early and one blow-out and he stays. 4 early wins and getting crushed at home in a trophy game at home and he is probably gone.

I am surprise to hear that 4 wins would be acceptable to some of you. I would think bowl eligibility is must to keep his job. I can see 5 wins if the gophers lose a lot of close games.

 

[Monty519]

I am surprise to hear that 4 wins would be acceptable to some of you. I would think bowl eligibility is must to keep his job. I can see 5 wins if the gophers lose a lot of close games.

4 wins isn't acceptable, but that's the point where you really have to look at the team and how they played in those games. They have 8 games on the schedule where losing them wouldn't be a shame, but if they don't play well and lose, like they did on occasions last season, then 4 wins will have him gone. We can't have anymore 38-7 to OSU, or 20-0 to PSU, or 12-0 to Iowa. To have a 4-8 season and survive, Brewster is gonna have to lose a ton of nail biters and to the toughest teams. Say in theory, we beat MTSU, NIU, So Dak, and Illinois. We lose the rest of our games. But if we have games like 21-20 to USC, 27-24 to OSU, 20-17 to PSU, etc., and it's just a matter of bad fortunes or just being on the cusp, but not quite getting there, then I could easily see Brewster being retained because we won't lose a ton of players the following season.

On the flip side, say we get an extra win, 5 wins, but we also have 38-7, 20-0 type games again. Brewster will likely be gone at that point. No bowl game plus the offense still sucks = firing IMO. To be honest, that's my main evaluating point this season, how does the offense improve, cause that group is experienced, they have been together for a little bit, albeit a new system, but still have played together for a while. If they can't get much better this year, then that will be an issue for me.

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

I agree that he needs to win a rivalry game. Personally, I don't think the PSU game counts. I've seen better looking bowling trophies. That Liberty bell thing looks like someone's kid made it in woodshop. And the casual fan wouldn't recognize that hardware if he tripped over it, whereas everyone's heard of Floyd or the Little Brown jug.

Beating USC would also help Brewster's longevity, but that game's in September. Noone's gonna remember that upset if the Gophers go 0-3 in November. And speaking of upsets, someone posted that its unfair to expect Brewster to beat PSU, Iowa or Wisky because we'll be underdogs in all those games. Well, maybe Brewster wouldn't be on the hot seat if we were favored in at least one of those? Being a 'dog in virtually every big game of the season is something of a statement on the current state of the program. And that falls in Brewster's lap.

 

[tato2001]

And speaking of upsets, someone posted that its unfair to expect Brewster to beat PSU, Iowa or Wisky because we'll be underdogs in all those games. Well, maybe Brewster wouldn't be on the hot seat if we were favored in at least one of those? Being a 'dog in virtually every big game of the season is something of a statement on the current state of the program. And that falls in Brewster's lap.

^This a thousand times over. I've said it myself repeatedly. The fact we are underdog isn't a valid excuse for expecting losses, it's a SIGN that we're just not very good. Coaches don't keep their jobs because, hey, they were underdogs in their losses so we couldn't expect them to win. Coaches LOSE their jobs because they create perennial underdogs.

 

[dpodoll68]

Coaches LOSE their jobs because they create perennial underdogs.

Thank you. You've summed up succinctly why Brewster cannot be fired until at least 2011. He didn't create the entirety of this team. In fact, this will be the first year that more than a handful of his recruits will be starting. And (inexplicably) his most important position will still be manned by a Mason recruit in his fourth year on the job. I'd say he should be fired for that dunderheaded decision alone, but I'm willing to give him a chance at building a program, rather than holding him accountable for the failures of 40+ years.

 

[PapaHawk21]

4 wins isn't acceptable, but that's the point where you really have to look at the team and how they played in those games. They have 8 games on the schedule where losing them wouldn't be a shame, but if they don't play well and lose, like they did on occasions last season, then 4 wins will have him gone. We can't have anymore 38-7 to OSU, or 20-0 to PSU, or 12-0 to Iowa. To have a 4-8 season and survive, Brewster is gonna have to lose a ton of nail biters and to the toughest teams. Say in theory, we beat MTSU, NIU, So Dak, and Illinois. We lose the rest of our games. But if we have games like 21-20 to USC, 27-24 to OSU, 20-17 to PSU, etc., and it's just a matter of bad fortunes or just being on the cusp, but not quite getting there, then I could easily see Brewster being retained because we won't lose a ton of players the following season.

On the flip side, say we get an extra win, 5 wins, but we also have 38-7, 20-0 type games again. Brewster will likely be gone at that point. No bowl game plus the offense still sucks = firing IMO. To be honest, that's my main evaluating point this season, how does the offense improve, cause that group is experienced, they have been together for a little bit, albeit a new system, but still have played together for a while. If they can't get much better this year, then that will be an issue for me.

Well Kirk Ferentz went 11-2 (8-0) in his 4th season at Iowa. We were supposed to be a good team but no one expected a perfect big 10 campaign. Maybe the gophers will shock the world. The offense is key for Minnesota like you said. Great analysis. Hopefully, Horton can help Minnesota find an identity on offense.

 

[gophergrad]

I am surprise to hear that 4 wins would be acceptable to some of you. I would think bowl eligibility is must to keep his job. I can see 5 wins if the gophers lose a lot of close games.

Now we're talking about separate things, what is acceptable to Gopher fans and the kind of year that the Gophers have to have in 2010 for Brewster to lose his job. I don't know if any Gophers fan would be happy or content with 4 - 5 wins but that seems to be a threshold of sorts. I don't know what Maturi's threshold is, the guy is an odd bird. Personally I don't want to find out what combination of things in 2010 has to happen for Brewster to get canned.

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

Ummm, wasn't one of the main reasons for hiring Brewster that he is supposedly a world class recruiter? You make a good point that this is the first year that the majority of starters will be his guys. But its on Brewster to improve the level of talent. If we don't see a significant improvement this year AND he fails to either win 7 games plus beat either Iowa or Wisky, its time to pull the plug. Brewster shouldn't be held accountable for 4 decades of futility, but he (and his apologists) can't hide behind it, either.

In addition, if at any point in the season we burn two time outs in a row and then run a plunge play over the middle on third down, Brewster should be fired on the spot. And speaking of running, why don't we have a BT caliber running back 4 years into Brewster's tenure? Riddle me that one, batman.

 

[dpodoll68]

And speaking of running, why don't we have a BT caliber running back 4 years into Brewster's tenure? Riddle me that one, batman.

Wish I could tell you, bro. Hopefully Edwards, Kirkwood, or Wright will make that sore spot moot this fall.

The better question, and one that nobody has asked, is why haven't we had a BT caliber QB 4 years into Brewster's tenure? If it is really the God's honest truth that Gray can't beat out Weber in an honest, fair, open competition (a supposition that I find impossible to believe, btw), then we truly haven't had a BT caliber QB during Brew's tenure. (Weber's default all-BT award during possibly the worst year for QBs in the history of the conference notwithstanding.)

We basically went from one coach who could only coach and recruit offense, to another who can only coach and recruit defense! Why do we keep doing this to ourselves??

 

[howeda7]

8+ wins-back no matter what

7 wins-back with at least some improvement in game-day and off-field issues

6 wins-back with noticable improvement in the other two areas

5 wins-only back if there is at least one rivalry/ranked win, noticable improvement in the other areas AND several close losses.

4 wins or less-Gone

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

agree with your 8 win scenario

For 6&7 W's, at least one of them has to be a win vs. Iowa or UW

For Brewster to survive a 5 win 2010, there would have to be one helluva extenuating circumstance. And I don't think close losses are going to count for much. Oftentimes a close loss is a game we could have or should have won. Like the Cal game last year, where a dumbass penalty was the turning point in the game.

One other wild card is what coaching candidates are available next fall. I wouldn't be surprised if Maturi tries to pull a repeat of the Tubby hire, especially if things are heading south in November for the football team. I can see a scenario where Brewster finishes 6-6 and his fate is determined by backchannel negotiations with a blue chip proven coach. Which we might never know about unless the change is made.

P.S. Any more significant off-field incidents are going to start turning up the heat on the seat. Especially if its something more serious than being overserved and then doing something stupid. If we had an incident like that brawl at MSU Brewster will be gone, regardless of W's & L's.

 

[Too Long in the Wasteland]

If you combined the 2003 offense with the 2009 defense, for sure we'd be playing on January 1. You can argue whether Weber is better than Cupito or AAK (can't remember who started that year, and I'm too lazy to look it up), but its night and day on the running backs then & now. Also, we had a much better OL. Say what you will about Glen, but he knew how to coach & develop offensive linemen. Defensive players, not so much.

 

[Monty519]

If you combined the 2003 offense with the 2009 defense, for sure we'd be playing on January 1. You can argue whether Weber is better than Cupito or AAK (can't remember who started that year, and I'm too lazy to look it up), but its night and day on the running backs then & now. Also, we had a much better OL. Say what you will about Glen, but he knew how to coach & develop offensive linemen. Defensive players, not so much.

'03 was Abdul-Kaliq. We also had a ridiculous RB combo in Barber and Maroney. Those two practically singlehandedly ran that offense. That offense, while decent, was never close to the same without those two, especially against legitimate comp. If you put those two on the current Gophers, you would see a very explosive offense once again. Sometimes all it takes is one or two studs to completely change the outlook of your team. That's why I am hoping MarQueis Gray can be that stud. He "appears" to have that talent and look of the part, and if he breaks out, we suddenly become legitimate BT title contenders in the next couple seasons. If not him, Alipate, or one of the frosh RBs. If you can get a stud QB or RB, that can carry your squad to greater heights than you probably should achieve.