Class of 2015 attrition

[50PoundHead]

From the info I've seen and read, attrition rates in the low 50% to low 60% are pretty normal.

It isn't that surprising to me coaching change or not. It's kind of like grad school. A lot of folks don't know exactly what they are committing to when they sign up. These kids get a pretty much free education, but it's grueling, especially for football players.

 

[Taji34]

Can someone pull the attrition numbers of some of the top 10 schools? It would be interesting to see if they have below average attrition or not.

 

[grumps]

50% seems high for an average.

Wouldn't you be signing 30-35 players every year to refill those spots?

 

[MplsGopher]

I think when you're the 3rd best running back for the Sue, it proves he's not better than Shannon Brooks, Rodney Smith, or Kobe.

No, that doesn't work. Both of their RB's were Juniors this year with a TON of game reps. And their head coach is huge on seniority and building the program up with high school recruits, using upperclassmen. Would not be surprised if a similar situation next year as well, with both being seniors (barring injury or something happening).

That doesn't prove it.

Unfortunately JJ did not have a lot of great options. He was stuck on the bench at Minnesota, and both DI North Dakota programs already had good RB's in their systems. Guess he could've gone to a Duluth, Mankato, or St Thomas, but wasn't interested in that. Wanted to stay at least FCS.


He'll get some carries next year (similar to Kobe for the Gophers this year), and then be the starter in 2018 for them. I wish him good luck!

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

No, that doesn't work. Both of their RB's were Juniors this year with a TON of game reps. And their head coach is huge on seniority and building the program up with high school recruits, using upperclassmen. Would not be surprised if a similar situation next year as well, with both being seniors (barring injury or something happening).

That doesn't prove it.

Unfortunately JJ did not have a lot of great options. He was stuck on the bench at Minnesota, and both DI North Dakota programs already had good RB's in their systems. Guess he could've gone to a Duluth, Mankato, or St Thomas, but wasn't interested in that. Wanted to stay at least FCS.


He'll get some carries next year (similar to Kobe for the Gophers this year), and then be the starter in 2018 for them. I wish him good luck!

Huh?

You were the one that said JJ might have been the best RB here but he was never given the chance.

He was never given the chance because (as every rationale person on the planet could see), he was stuck behind more experienced/better players (Rodney, Brooks, McCrary).

The poster points out that he was only third string at UND last year and you say that's because he was stuck behind more experienced/better players.

How is that possibly a rationale response to not getting PT at UND but you don't use that logic to explain his lack of PT at the U of MN?

 

[MplsGopher]

For U of Minn, I did not comment on why he wasn’t given the chance. I merely said he wasn’t given the chance, which is true.

Why do people take it so seriously, and refuse to give an inch, on such silly things??

 

[John Galt]

For U of Minn, I did not comment on why he wasn’t given the chance. I merely said he wasn’t given the chance, which is true.

Why do people take it so seriously, and refuse to give an inch, on such silly things??

Because it was a stupid statement. I'm sure he was given plenty of "chances" in practice. The idea that JJ was better than Smith, Brooks or even McCrary is crazy.

 

[GophBen]

Because it was a stupid statement. I'm sure he was given plenty of "chances" in practice. The idea that JJ was better than Smith, Brooks or even McCrary is crazy.

Femi-Cole passed him on the depth chart based on work in practice. He came here, he tried, he didn't measure up, he's moved on to a place that's more his level. Good luck.

 

[MplsGopher]

Because it was a stupid statement. I'm sure he was given plenty of "chances" in practice. The idea that JJ was better than Smith, Brooks or even McCrary is crazy.

Of course it wasn't a stupid statement. It wasn't much a statement at all. The last sentence of your post is a crazy idea, that I didn't say or imply in the slightest. This is silly.

 

[GFBfan]

Can someone pull the attrition numbers of some of the top 10 schools? It would be interesting to see if they have below average attrition or not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/
Someone did this for P5 conferences from 2002 - 2014. Didn't Include those who left early for NFL though.

During that time, the BIG average for all teams was at 37%.
Northwestern was the low at 24%, Indiana was the high at 44% and we were at 42%.

 

[GophBen]

Holy crap! 60% of the players brought in the two cycles before the coaching change got discarded by Jerry Kill? How did we keep a program?

 

[MplsGopher]

Holy crap! 60% of the players brought in the two cycles before the coaching change got discarded by Jerry Kill? How did we keep a program?

I think a little bit of a sanity check is in order, due to the size of the rosters for college football.

NFL has 53, college has 85. That last number is huge, when you consider that only 22 guys can be starters. And if you put all players getting significant reps (say >= 1/3rd of total offensive or defensive snaps), then you're probably talking at most 35-40 guys in a season. That's still less than half the roster.


There is simply no way you can keep that number of guys happy. Stuff happens, circumstances change. Five years is a long time, especially when you aren't getting a chance to be a significant contributor.


If you use a compound loss rate of 20%, then the numbers look like:
start 100% remaining
after first year 80% remaining
after second year 64% remaining
after third year 51.2% remaining
after fourth year 41% remaining

 

[Iceland12]

Can someone pull the attrition numbers of some of the top 10 schools? It would be interesting to see if they have below average attrition or not.

But how those recruiting classes make their mark on the field in a few years will often look very different from those tidy lists released by teams. Consider the consensus top five hauls in 2007: Florida, USC, Tennessee, LSU and Higgins' pick, Texas. An analysis by The Associated Press showed that of the 123 high school players who sent in letters to those programs on signing day, only 59 (48 percent) were still on the teams' rosters as seniors in 2010 or '11 (depending on whether they redshirted).

http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?id=7525479

 

[PMWinSTP]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/
Someone did this for P5 conferences from 2002 - 2014. Didn't Include those who left early for NFL though.

During that time, the BIG average for all teams was at 37%.
Northwestern was the low at 24%, Indiana was the high at 44% and we were at 42%.

The numbers you pulled out are the overall % for that stretch of years and skewed because the last several classes had not gotten through all years of eligibility. Of the classes that did, quite a few are in the high 40 to mid 50% range.

 

[Dano564]

This is from that reddit post.



Minnesota

2014 Signed 20 - 02 (10%)
2013 Signed 19 - 03 (16%)
2012 Signed 27 - 04 (15%)
2011 Signed 23 - 06 (26%)
2010 Signed 25 - 15 (60%)
2009 Signed 20 - 11 (55%)
2008 Signed 29 - 11 (38%)
2007 Signed 24 - 14 (58%)
2006 Signed 22 - 12 (55%)
2005 Signed 20 - 12 (60%)
2004 Signed 24 - 15 (63%)
2003 Signed 27 - 11 (41%)
2002 Signed 24 - 11 (46%)


Wisconsin

2014 Signed 25 - 03 (12%)
2013 Signed 17 - 05 (29%)
2012 Signed 12 - 05 (42%)
2011 Signed 20 - 03 (15%)
2010 Signed 24 - 13 (54%)
2009 Signed 21 - 09 (43%)
2008 Signed 24 - 10 (42%)
2007 Signed 19 - 09 (50%)
2006 Signed 23 - 11 (48%)
2005 Signed 23 - 08 (35%)
2004 Signed 23 - 10 (43%)
2003 Signed 22 - 08 (36%)
2002 Signed 25 - 10 (40%)

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/
Someone did this for P5 conferences from 2002 - 2014. Didn't Include those who left early for NFL though.

During that time, the BIG average for all teams was at 37%.
Northwestern was the low at 24%, Indiana was the high at 44% and we were at 42%.

Interesting how the Gophers were the second highest over that 10 year period. Even so the B1G average of 37% and Minnesota average of 42% is significantly lower than the Gophers current average attrition rate from the 2013-2015 classes, which is 55%.

That high of attrition from those 3 classes is why our roster was in poor shape this season, and will be very young this upcoming season.

 

[Dano564]

Interesting how the Gophers were the second highest over that 10 year period. Even so the B1G average of 37% and Minnesota average of 42% is significantly lower than the Gophers current average attrition rate from the 2013-2015 classes, which is 54%.

That high of attrition from those 3 classes is why our roster was in poor shape this season, and will be very young this upcoming season.

What's our attrition rate for 2015?

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

What's our attrition rate for 2015?

2015 - 54%, with the Waters transfer news. It'll jump to 58% if Brooks is done.
2014 - 59%
2013 - 53%

 

[Spoofin]

2015 signees would be able to play thru 2018 or 2019 if they red-shirted. I guess if my coach came out in 2017 stating that his plan is building to 2020 I might look to move on too.


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[Dano564]

2015 signees would be able to play thru 2018 or 2019 if they red-shirted. I guess if my coach came out in 2017 stating that his plan is building to 2020 I might look to move on too.


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I think if most of these guys were really good, they would have played a lot this year.

 

[Spoofin]

I think if most of these guys were really good, they would have played a lot this year.

Teams need role players, STers, etc. too. Not every non-star is expendable nor replaceable.


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[Dano564]

Teams need role players, STers, etc. too. Not every non-star is expendable nor replaceable.


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Yeh, well... maybe you're right THIS TIME.

So are you saying we're screwed for next year?
If so, don't tell me you you have lower expectations for PJ than he does going into 2018. My brain isn't going to be able to handle that.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

2015 signees would be able to play thru 2018 or 2019 if they red-shirted. I guess if my coach came out in 2017 stating that his plan is building to 2020 I might look to move on too.


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Building towards a west championship in 2020. Prior to that they can still claim that elite 4th place west finish, which is what they signed up to do under the previous regime.

 

[bottlebass]

Building towards a west championship in 2020. Prior to that they can still claim that elite 4th place west finish, which is what they signed up to do under the previous regime.

Or maybe they signed up for bowl games in Florida and California. Where is our bowl game this year?

 

[Heracles]

Building towards a west championship in 2020. Prior to that they can still claim that elite 4th place west finish, which is what they signed up to do under the previous regime.

You mean the regime that had more success here than any other coaching staff since the 60s? The guy (Kill) who single handedly got the facilities built that will allow PJ to recruit? The guys that totally turned the program around academically?

I don't get this narrative that you push every single day on here that Kill and Claeys were awful. But, you religiously defend a guy who hasn't won a thing here. Honestly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

You mean the regime that had more success here than any other coaching staff since the 60s? The guy (Kill) who single handedly got the facilities built that will allow PJ to recruit? The guys that totally turned the program around academically?

I don't get this narrative that you push every single day on here that Kill and Claeys were awful. But, you religiously defend a guy who hasn't won a thing here. Honestly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

That's false, like most of your posts. Mason had more success. But we've been here before, you just keep spewing BS.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

Or maybe they signed up for bowl games in Florida and California. Where is our bowl game this year?

Could care less if it means beating Wisconsin and winning the west in 2020. Also tough to make a bowl game with the attrition the Gophers had for this year's JR/SR classes, which was the point of this thread.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

You mean the regime that had more success here than any other coaching staff since the 60s? The guy (Kill) who single handedly got the facilities built that will allow PJ to recruit? The guys that totally turned the program around academically?

I don't get this narrative that you push every single day on here that Kill and Claeys were awful. But, you religiously defend a guy who hasn't won a thing here. Honestly, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

This is one of the most ridiculous narratives out there surrounding the Gopher Football program. It is a patently false statement as a matter of fact. Jerry Kill had little to nothing to do with getting the Athletes Village built.

 

[MplsGopher]

Could care less if it means beating Wisconsin and winning the west in 2020. Also tough to make a bowl game with the attrition the Gophers had for this year's JR/SR classes, which was the point of this thread.

Then you should care less

 

[Spoofin]

Could care less if it means beating Wisconsin and winning the west in 2020. <b>Also tough to make a bowl game with the attrition the Gophers had for this year's JR/SR classes, which was the point of this thread.</b>

Yes, that was the point of this thread. I made a comment about one reason they may be leaving and someone turned it into a Kill/Claeys debate.... again....

Building towards a west championship in 2020. Prior to that they can still claim that elite 4th place west finish, which is what they signed up to do under the previous regime.

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