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touchdownvikings

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Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
 

touchdownvikings said:
Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
Click to expand...
Do you watch college football other than the Gophers? 10 wins —ok—I’ll book it
 

touchdownvikings said:
Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
Click to expand...

10 wins with next year's schedule? Why so pessimistic?

Go Gophers!!
 

I'm not sure if I can watch the Purdue game this Saturday. I've been kicked in the nuts so many times that I don't know if I can do it again this week. I've been a diehard fan since the later 60's. The loss last week was very disheartening. I imagine I can't resist again Saturday but I need an enthusiasm infusion.
 



Ok I’d say you definitely drank the Kool Aid! I’m normally pretty optimistic, but with the schedule next year and what I’ve seen from this offense I see them as more of a 6-8 win team. I would say you and I are looking at this team with different colored glasses. I hope you are right and I’m wrong.
 

touchdownvikings said:
Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
Click to expand...
Free Bryson!
 


touchdownvikings said:
Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
Click to expand...
honestly we have no idea as we don't, and never will, run one under Fleck. I do think you're likely right, but we won't know. Some guys are rhythm throwers who need to throw consistently. in this offense, you throw a pass maybe every 3 minutes of game time or so, typically in high leverage situations or "and long" spots. I think that was the part of the 2nd half that was so puzzling was how they changed stylistically despite being down for large chunks of the half. Maybe they thought no way they block Newton and so we turtle?

1st half passes: down thrown on and results
1st and 10: complete for 11
2nd and 5: complete for 24
1st and 10: complete for 15 and TD
1st and 10: complete for 20
3rd and 10: complete for 7
4th and 3: complete for 3
1st and 10: incomplete
3rd and 8: complete for 31 and TD
2nd and 5: incomplete
3rd and 5: complete for 10
1st and 10: complete for 9
(this is where we inexplicably play for a FG instead of trying to score)
To me, I'd say that's 7 favorable throwing downs for your QB out of 11 throws. He did a pretty nice job on those going 6/7 for solid yardage and a score
The 4 less favorable, he hit all of them with good success.

2nd half passes:
1st and 10: incomplete
1st and 10: complete for 6
2nd and 13: incomplete
3rd and 6: incomplete
2nd and 12: incomplete
3rd and 12: incomplete
2nd and 7: complete for 31 yards and TD
3rd and 4: incomplete
1st and 10: incomplete
3rd and 10: incomplete
4tha nd 10: incomplete
2 passes thrown in favorable throwing downs. He goes 1/2 on those. The rest he is 1/9 with the TD as well as 2 sacks. The problem when you only have your QB throwing when the DBs know what's coming is your windows are shorter, the pass rush is faster, and there is added pressure. This is on PJ for deciding that's what they wanted to do in the 2nd half.

Add that on top of only throwing the ball on average 20 times a game, it's exceedingly difficult to throw in rhythm when you're a middle of the road QB. You don't have to throw it 40 times a game, but there is 0 reason we don't have pass plays that are extensions of the running game (screens and swings) that are run more regularly. They work exactly like running plays and they let your QB keep his rhythm.
 



upnorthkid said:
honestly we have no idea as we don't, and never will, run one under Fleck. I do think you're likely right, but we won't know. Some guys are rhythm throwers who need to throw consistently. in this offense, you throw a pass maybe every 3 minutes of game time or so, typically in high leverage situations or "and long" spots. I think that was the part of the 2nd half that was so puzzling was how they changed stylistically despite being down for large chunks of the half. Maybe they thought no way they block Newton and so we turtle?

1st half passes: down thrown on and results
1st and 10: complete for 11
2nd and 5: complete for 24
1st and 10: complete for 15 and TD
1st and 10: complete for 20
3rd and 10: complete for 7
4th and 3: complete for 3
1st and 10: incomplete
3rd and 8: complete for 31 and TD
2nd and 5: incomplete
3rd and 5: complete for 10
1st and 10: complete for 9
(this is where we inexplicably play for a FG instead of trying to score)
To me, I'd say that's 7 favorable throwing downs for your QB out of 11 throws. He did a pretty nice job on those going 6/7 for solid yardage and a score
The 4 less favorable, he hit all of them with good success.

2nd half passes:
1st and 10: incomplete
1st and 10: complete for 6
2nd and 13: incomplete
3rd and 6: incomplete
2nd and 12: incomplete
3rd and 12: incomplete
2nd and 7: complete for 31 yards and TD
3rd and 4: incomplete
1st and 10: incomplete
3rd and 10: incomplete
4tha nd 10: incomplete
2 passes thrown in favorable throwing downs. He goes 1/2 on those. The rest he is 1/9 with the TD as well as 2 sacks. The problem when you only have your QB throwing when the DBs know what's coming is your windows are shorter, the pass rush is faster, and there is added pressure. This is on PJ for deciding that's what they wanted to do in the 2nd half.

Add that on top of only throwing the ball on average 20 times a game, it's exceedingly difficult to throw in rhythm when you're a middle of the road QB. You don't have to throw it 40 times a game, but there is 0 reason we don't have pass plays that are extensions of the running game (screens and swings) that are run more regularly. They work exactly like running plays and they let your QB keep his rhythm.
Click to expand...
Awesome research with good analysis, I will say this though, when your completion percentage gets to be around 50 or less than 60 percent, you are costing yourself a chance to run more passes. If you can’t get 1st downs, you won’t have the ball.
 

touchdownvikings said:
Look: we entered this year with two question marks: (1) QB; and (2) defensive backfield.

Here's the clear picture of where we are...

We now have a QB who can pass opportunistically. In other words, he is not yet able to run an offense organized around passing. But he can -- now -- effectively and efficiently run an offense organized around running, and then opportunistically pass the ball. Progress! ...To be "balanced" as Fleck uses the term, he needs to progress to a state where he is capable of running an offense organized around passing -- even though Fleck is philosophically opposed to that in most cases.

Defensive backfield is more challenging. We have some strong pieces. Nubin. Walley. Henderson. ...But defensive backfields are a weakest-link unit. You are only as good as your weakest link. And, when closing out a game, and you've got 6 DB's in... well... 3 of them aren't Nubin, Walley or Henderson. Hence, you get NW and Illinois.

None of this is a surprise to anyone who entered with their eyes open.

Now, here's the good news. Gophers will enter next season with -- at very worst -- a QB who can opportunistically pass the ball. Just focus on the DB unit, and the Gophers will be a 10 win team. Book it.
Click to expand...
I'll book it, because there is no way this offense will be able to win 10 games next year. Not even after the rest of this season and a full off season. I actually felt that I saw some progress in the Illinois game, but a ton more is needed by this offense to have a chance at 10 wins. In fact, I think there is a better chance at 5 or less wins vs 10 wins. All bets are off if Fleck makes a good OC hire.
 
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