Chet Holmgren says he'll be the best player in the NBA in 2 months

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He might end up the next Kevin McHale or the next Shawn Bradley. Unless he gets stronger, being sidelined with injuries is more likely for him then being a fixture in the starting lineup!
 


upnorthkid said:
it isn't hard to list multiple big men drastically better at the game than he is and will be for quite some time. For him to say he'll be the best player in the league is comical and borderline idiotic to say. Guys like KAT, Jokic, Embiid, and Ayton will kill him at the offensive end. He couldn't stay out of foul trouble against bigger, more athletic guys throughout the season and that's not going to change at the next level. On offense himself, time will show if he actually can hit the outside shot with a hand in his face as he's not going to make his money driving to the rim (he's not a great big man passer yet) or with his back to the basket (he isn't moving an interior post player). We'll see if he's made an all star team in 3-4 years
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He's not a big man like those guys are. He's more like Kevin Durant, who was also rail thin coming out of college, and will play more outside than inside.

The more open flowing, jack up a bunch of 3's NBA game is better suited for Chet than the physical grind that college basketball is. Chet's not going to be the best player in the league, but I'll be surprised if he's not a really good NBA player. I wouldn't take him #1 though.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
He's not a big man like those guys are. He's more like Kevin Durant, who was also rail thin coming out of college, and will play more outside than inside.

The more open flowing, jack up a bunch of 3's NBA game is better suited for Chet than the physical grind that college basketball is. Chet's not going to be the best player in the league, but I'll be surprised if he's not a really good NBA player. I wouldn't take him #1 though.
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OK then where would you take him? At 19?
 






GopherWeatherGuy said:
He's not a big man like those guys are. He's more like Kevin Durant, who was also rail thin coming out of college, and will play more outside than inside.

The more open flowing, jack up a bunch of 3's NBA game is better suited for Chet than the physical grind that college basketball is. Chet's not going to be the best player in the league, but I'll be surprised if he's not a really good NBA player. I wouldn't take him #1 though.
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It’s going to be really interesting to see how his game translates to the NBA. He could be a phenomenal player with today’s style but the track record for rail thin bigs staying healthy isn’t good.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
He's not a big man like those guys are. He's more like Kevin Durant, who was also rail thin coming out of college, and will play more outside than inside.

The more open flowing, jack up a bunch of 3's NBA game is better suited for Chet than the physical grind that college basketball is. Chet's not going to be the best player in the league, but I'll be surprised if he's not a really good NBA player. I wouldn't take him #1 though.
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I think the issue is looking at his skill set translating right now which is more what I’m alluding to. He isn’t a knockdown shooter or a make space off the dribble fit like KD. He scored most of his points at the rim getting there in transition or taking bigs outside and going in. I don’t know if he has the quickness for that to go next level. His value is going to be defensively as a help side shot blocker. The question will be who can you match him up on for on ball defense at this point as he isn’t going to be able to guard wings based on what I’ve seen from him in college
 

I like Chet, but he probably should have said that he would be in the best player in this year's draft.
 



upnorthkid said:
I think the issue is looking at his skill set translating right now which is more what I’m alluding to. He isn’t a knockdown shooter or a make space off the dribble fit like KD. He scored most of his points at the rim getting there in transition or taking bigs outside and going in. I don’t know if he has the quickness for that to go next level. His value is going to be defensively as a help side shot blocker. The question will be who can you match him up on for on ball defense at this point as he isn’t going to be able to guard wings based on what I’ve seen from him in college
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Virtually no one is as skilled as KD, I'm just saying Chet's game is more like his than the bigs you mentioned. Chet will have more space in the NBA to do more off the dribble. He also shot 39% from 3 this season, which is really good for a 7' true freshman. Defense will be more of a challenge, but his shot blocking ability will help negate his shortcomings until he is able to grow and adapt.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
Virtually no one is as skilled as KD, I'm just saying Chet's game is more like his than the bigs you mentioned. Chet will have more space in the NBA to do more off the dribble. He also shot 39% from 3 this season, which is really good for a 7' true freshman. Defense will be more of a challenge, but his shot blocking ability will help negate his shortcomings until he is able to grow and adapt.
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he has to play defense against them is what I'm saying. Not that his offensive game will be like them (maybe a bit like this version of KAT playing at the 3 pt line and doing some driving)
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
He's not a big man like those guys are. He's more like Kevin Durant, who was also rail thin coming out of college, and will play more outside than inside.

The more open flowing, jack up a bunch of 3's NBA game is better suited for Chet than the physical grind that college basketball is. Chet's not going to be the best player in the league, but I'll be surprised if he's not a really good NBA player. I wouldn't take him #1 though.
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Who would you take #1? I agree with everything you said but I think Chet is clearly the #1 pick. It sounds like Orlando is going to go with the guy from Auburn. I'm not sure what he really does better than Holmgren. Similar shooters, similar playmakers, etc., and Chet is a far superior rebounder, defender, and finisher at the rim.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Who would you take #1? I agree with everything you said but I think Chet is clearly the #1 pick. It sounds like Orlando is going to go with the guy from Auburn. I'm not sure what he really does better than Holmgren. Similar shooters, similar playmakers, etc., and Chet is a far superior rebounder, defender, and finisher at the rim.
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I think Jabari Smith is the right pick at #1. He's a bit of a better shooter than Chet, and I don't think Chet is that much of a better defender, outside of blocking shots. The biggest differentiator is thickness/strength and ability to put on more strength. Smith is more likely to do that going forward.

I would argue taking Banchero over Chet for the same reasons. He's not quite as good of a shooter yet, but still showed that he can shoot from the outside. He'll likely only get better at that. He's also the strongest of the 3. Chet is the biggest unicorn skill wise, but I think he's the highest risk compared to Smith/Banchero.
 

bc2211 said:
I suppose in the AAU process. He’s incredibly talented and I think he’ll do well. But he wasn’t option 1 on his collegiate team, and had some mediocre and poor games against ranked opponents.
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That doesn't count. AAU is a no defense look at me league. He will get roughed up hardcore the minute he steps onto the NBA floor. My guess is he will get hurt pretty quick. That said, his talent is off the charts.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I don't really care enough about Chet to root for him, but this is one of those questions that's impossible to answer correctly, and frankly is irrelevant.
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He left... good riddance. I won't wish ill fortune upon him, but I'll never care about how his pro career turns out.
 

Chet will get baked at the next level. I'll eat my words if wrong, but wouldn't. touch him top 10 honestly
 



upnorthkid said:
he has to play defense against them is what I'm saying. Not that his offensive game will be like them (maybe a bit like this version of KAT playing at the 3 pt line and doing some driving)
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Yeah, I think Chet is likely a 5 (maybe a 4/5 tweener).
 


mkAz said:
I know it’s Summer League but . . .

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Yes, it's only summer league....but...

He put up those numbers in just under 24 minutes of playing time. Those 6 blocks are a summer league record for a game. He also had a +26 in the plus or minus box score. That's an incredibly productive and efficient summer league debut for a rookie. Even the top rated rookies rarely do that well in their first summer league game.

At this point, it's not too hard to imagine him being the best rookie this season anyway.
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
How often is the best college player the best pro?
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Interesting question. I won't say "best" pro because that can vary from year to year and, for this century, Lebron probably has to be considered the best. However, the following Naismith College Players of the Year from this century have had very good to outstanding careers:

Kevin Durant (2007 as a freshman)
Anthony Davis (2012 as a freshman)
Blake Griffin (2009 as a sophomore)

It's a little too soon to tell for another player ---

Zion Williamson (2019 as a freshman); he has been very good when he's played but he's had significant health issues and didn't play at all in 2021-22. He's only 22 so he could yet have an outstanding career.

The last Naismith winner as an upperclassman to have an outstanding NBA career would be Tim Duncan who won the award as a senior in 1997.

Going back to this century, there have been a number of Naismith winners who substantially underperformed expectations for various reasons:

Jason Williams (Duke, 2002)
Evan Turner (OSU, 2010)
Jimmer Fredette (BYU, 2011)

Turner wasn't a bust as he played 10 years but he played well below expectations for a #2 pick.
 



goldenboy said:
Well, he wasn't even the best college bb player last year, and he had an entire season to make his case, so I'll say "I don't think so."
I still think that, while he's talented and skilled, he'll end up the next Ralph Sampson in the pros (only had 3 full effective seasons before injuries derailed his career, and two of those were alongside Olajuwon). Just not enough meat on those bones, so he'll need a modern day Olajuwon wherever he goes.
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goldenboy said:
Well, he wasn't even the best college bb player last year, and he had an entire season to make his case, so I'll say "I don't think so."
I still think that, while he's talented and skilled, he'll end up the next Ralph Sampson in the pros (only had 3 full effective seasons before injuries derailed his career, and two of those were alongside Olajuwon). Just not enough meat on those bones, so he'll need a modern day Olajuwon wherever he goes.
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UpAndUnder43 said:
Honest answer: he has played against a lot of nba draftees both past, current and future.
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He's a Dumb Ass !!
 

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