Chances of making NCAAs?

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DC Gopher

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I don't see us finishing ahead of Iowa now in the B10 standings, and to be honest, I don't see 9 wins. Can we make the NCAAs with 8 wins and finishing behind Iowa (and perhaps Illinois)?
 


DC Gopher said:
I don't see us finishing ahead of Iowa now in the B10 standings, and to be honest, I don't see 9 wins. Can we make the NCAAs with 8 wins and finishing behind Iowa (and perhaps Illinois)?
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Yes. This may be news to some, but non-conference games do count. So does RPI. The Gophers chances are 65% and falling. Iowa's 35% and rising. I'd still much rather be us. We need 3 more wins (counting BTT) for lock status.
 




Win vs PSU and either @Nebraska or @Purdue and we are probably in. Win all 3 and we are a lock. Lose 1 but win 1 in the BTT and we are a lock.
 

We will be favored in two or our remaining 5. I see 1-4 down the stretch, obviously Rodney is hurt a lot more than we know and if Oto has to play this many minutes we are in trouble. (Excited for next year when some on this board think he should be our starting PF)
 

DC Gopher said:
I don't see us finishing ahead of Iowa now in the B10 standings, and to be honest, I don't see 9 wins. Can we make the NCAAs with 8 wins and finishing behind Iowa (and perhaps Illinois)?
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Yes, 9-9 Gophers get in for sure, 8-10 is a little bit tougher but I still think they would be in with the bubble the way it is as of now.
 

howeda7 said:
Thank god the Selection Committee doesn't poll the teams fans. The Gophers would finish last.
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I don't understand what you're saying. My comment was that on paper they still look to be in great shape; however, it's not clear to me that they will definitely win the couple more games necessary. Anyway, just wondering what you were trying to say.
 



7-11 is more realistic than 9-9 at this point.

Beat Penn St at home and getting into the NCAA is probably comes down to winning 1 of the last 2 road games for 8-10. 8-10 should be enough but might still need 1 win in the B1G tourney.
 

DC Gopher said:
I don't see us finishing ahead of Iowa now in the B10 standings, and to be honest, I don't see 9 wins. Can we make the NCAAs with 8 wins and finishing behind Iowa (and perhaps Illinois)?
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Thank God we held on and beat Becky.

Guaranteed us a spot as long as we win two more games.

PSU (should be a gimme). Need one more.

Have to think we get it. Probably at Nebraska.
 


Who knows! This team is so unpredictable that they could go 5-0 or 0-5, neither would truly surprise me.
 



I think 8-10 gets us in for sure. However, with that being said I just don't see Penn State as that easy of a game anymore. If they scout at all and slap a zone on us that will be a close game for 40 minutes. They played Michigan well at Michigan today!

I've been backing the Gophers all season, backing Tubby ever since he came here, but after that game today I don't see any other game that we can guarantee and I personally can't make excuses for this team anymore.

They will more than likely make 8-10 and get into the tournament as an 8 or 9 seed and lose their first game...just my prediction.
 

It all comes down to @Nebraska. I don't think we'll win at Purdue. If we finish 7-11, we'll need two wins in the BTT to pull it off. Short of that, we still might have a respectable RPI, but the selection committee are no dopes. They will be able to see us for the team we've been.
 


Bad Gopher said:
It all comes down to @Nebraska. I don't think we'll win at Purdue. If we finish 7-11, we'll need two wins in the BTT to pull it off. Short of that, we still might have a respectable RPI, but the selection committee are no dopes. They will be able to see us for the team we've been.
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I hope #inAjlaopeihfYHL587 doesn't read this.
 

I don't like how the big ten does their scheduling. Wish we would play every team once before we start back with a second game against any team. I think we beat penn state, Nebraska and Purdue and finish 9-9.
 

Maybe the Gophers will BREAK THE RPI!!!! lol

Maybe we'll force the NCAA selection committee to scrap the RPI?!


Well, I said before the Wisconsin game that we needed FOUR WINS to get in. Didn't matter when those wins come, BTT or regular season. After the UW win, we were down to THREE. Now we are still at THREE.

If we lose all of the rest of our Big Ten conf games, but get to the BTT final, that would still get us in I think. Too many signature wins and not enough bad losses. Big Ten is just too highly rated overall as a conference.

Although losing to PSU would be a bad loss, so that might make 2 bad losses?! But we'd also possibly have FIVE Top 25 wins.

Yeah, I've done the math, and looked at every possible scenario, and no matter how they come, if we get 3 more wins, our RPI rating would be SO GOOD, the NCAA Selection Committee would literally have to make the decision to scrap the RPI to justify leaving us out of the tourney.
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
Maybe the Gophers will BREAK THE RPI!!!! lol

Maybe we'll force the NCAA selection committee to scrap the RPI?!


Well, I said before the Wisconsin game that we needed FOUR WINS to get in. Didn't matter when those wins come, BTT or regular season. After the UW win, we were down to THREE. Now we are still at THREE.

If we lose all of the rest of our Big Ten conf games, but get to the BTT final, that would still get us in I think. Too many signature wins and not enough bad losses. Big Ten is just too highly rated overall as a conference.

Although losing to PSU would be a bad loss, so that might make 2 bad losses?! But we'd also possibly have FIVE Top 25 wins.

Yeah, I've done the math, and looked at every possible scenario, and no matter how they come, if we get 3 more wins, our RPI rating would be SO GOOD, the NCAA Selection Committee would literally have to make the decision to scrap the RPI to justify leaving us out of the tourney.
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We're in agreement - 3 more wins.
 

The committee used to weigh the last 10 games for consideration. My memory tells me that qualifier was thrown out. Can someone help me with this?
 

I'm not sure about that one Station19 - I've actually seen where they list the last 12 games somewhere, but not anywhere else, so they may have dropped it, which would be good for us. But you have to think that realistically, the committee would take how a team has been playing most recently into consideration if all other factors were pretty equal.
 

Gophers have lost as favorites now against Mich, Illinois, @Northwestern, @Iowa and have no wins as underdogs in conference play. I think it's silly to assume they will win @Nebraska or @Purdue given what we've seen since the second half of the Indiana game. For some perspective of how inept the Gophers have been, they've scored more than 62 points ONCE in their past 8 games (against Nebraska).

The sad thing is, they likely will make the tournament at 8-10 if they get there...and that will be enough for some.
 

Bubble is too weak for the Gophers to miss the NCAA's unless they completely collapse which I wouldn't put past this team. I see the Big Ten with 8 bids.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
Bubble is too weak for the Gophers to miss the NCAA's unless they completely collapse which I wouldn't put past this team. I see the Big Ten with 8 bids.
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What woul you call a complete collaspe? They have lost 7 of 10 and a high probability after the next 2 that could be 9 of 12. Exactly when does the collaspe become complete?
 

scools12 said:
What woul you call a complete collaspe? They have lost 7 of 10 and a high probability after the next 2 that could be 9 of 12. Exactly when does the collaspe become complete?
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They look at the whole body of work. 13 wins vs the top 100 is far better than any bubble team right now.
 

A complete collapse would be winning only 2 games the rest of the way out, regular season and BTT combined.

That would give us 3 bad losses, and we would probably see our RPI rank drop significantly after losses to Purdue and Nebraska. Enough of a drop maybe even to justify leaving us out of the Dance when combined with all the other losses as well.


So lets get 4 more wins and not have to worry about it.
 

station19 said:
The committee used to weigh the last 10 games for consideration. My memory tells me that qualifier was thrown out. Can someone help me with this?
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Your recollection is good on this... stress is on 'body of work'. That said, the committee can use just about whatever information they like.

If a team isn't playing the same as they were earlier in the year, that can be taken into consideration.

If Rodney is injured, Gophers have been losing a lot recently, etc.. that can all come into play.

So yes... last x number of games isn't "highlighted" as it used to be, but that doesn't mean it's irrelevant.

Gophers COULD flirt with being the highest RPI-ranked BCS team to not make the tourney. But, that would probably take not only losing the next couple, but also dropping a couple of the final three.
 

What are the odds that all our remaining opponents play zone? If so, we got no chance.
 

WHB Brewer said:
What are the odds that all our remaining opponents play zone? If so, we got no chance.
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The really frustrating thing about the zone is that it rarely is a team's primary form of defense. They just throw it in for a few minutes to mix things up. It's not supposed to be as effective as it is against us. You are supposed to get wide open 3 point looks. If you can't hit them that is one thing, but we can't even get a shot off against it.
 

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