CFP predictions

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I don't think playoff spots should be based on a future projection of what folks think might happen based on an injury. A team earned them or they didn't.

The generally accepted rule is that a major conference champion who goes 13-0 is in. 3 teams earned that. Texas and Alabama have precedent from a couple years ago when Cincy and Notre Dame were locked up for the last spot, ND was probably more impressive, but ND's only loss was head-to-head with Cincinnati. So the Bearcats got the last spot.
 


Who is in should be easy: Washington, Michigan, Florida State, Texas. Any argument to put Bama in is bogus.

"You can't punish then for scheduling Texas?" BS. Florida State and Texas should be rewarded for scheduling AND BEATING LSU and Alabama more than Alabama for scheduling and losing to Texas.

"But SEC." BS. SEC had a losing record to power five conferences.

"They have the best win." BS. Texas beat the SEC champ, Alabama beat the SEC runner up.

"FSU doesn't pass the eye test." BS. Alabama had its own unimpressive wins against USF and mediocre Auburn.
 


I think the real question is which teams move the most product and get the most eyeballs and be put in with plausible deniability? I think Nick gets in over FSU.
 


PMWinSTP said:
FSU has a very good defense. Will the backup FSU QB be available for CFP? I would think so.
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But they did…I don’t get your point. They won the game. Washington had some very close calls. Maybe those don’t count to you either?
 


I don't think it matters who they put in, it just feels like this is Michigan's year.
 

If the committee puts Alabama in because of their win over Georgia how can they not put Texas in for their win over Alabama? If they include both Alabama and Texas then an undefeated P5 Florida St gets left out?

This seems pretty easy to me which is why it probably won’t happen.

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida St
4. Texas
 



gopherbadgerman said:
They have a better loss but Bama has at least one if not more better wins
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If Bama has a better win than Texas isn’t that an admission that Georgia is better than Bama and should be ranked higher
 

scools12 said:
If the committee puts Alabama in because of their win over Georgia how can they not put Texas in for their win over Alabama? If they include both Alabama and Texas then an undefeated P5 Florida St gets left out?

This seems pretty easy to me which is why it probably won’t happen.

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Florida St
4. Texas
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You could quibble with the order, it you are right about who should be in. It doesn't even seem like it should be tough. The only reason to put Alabama in is a desire not to exclude the SEC. It has nothing to do with results on the field this year.
 

Couldn't have written a better end to the 4 team playoff as this is why it's going to 12.
 

goldengophers said:
Couldn't have written a better end to the 4 team playoff as this is why it's going to 12.
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It really shouldn't be though. If you go back to week 1 and say "at the end of the year, there will be 3 undefeated P5 Champs, and the other two P5 conference Champs will both be 1 loss teams, but as fortune would have it, one of them beat the other head to head", I think the near unanimous response would be that it will be pretty easy to pick the top 4.

The nightmare scenario would have been 5 undefeated P5 champs.
 




Should be:

Michigan
Washington
FSU
Texas

Could be:
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Alabama


Probably will be:
Michigan
Washington
Alabama
Georgia

Then the Extra Suck Pansy Network gets their dream of Georgia beating Michigan and Alabama beating Washington for a SEC rematch final so they can keep circle jerking each other over how much better the SEC is for another year.
 


My prediction is easy.

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Alabama
4. Florida St

I can't see any way you leave undefeated teams out. Whether we all agree Georgia is better, I can't leave Florida St out. And I pick Alabama over Texas because Alabama has the best win of the two. Which sucks for Texas, because then playing Alabama wasn't worth it. This will all be better next year where we'll be wondering what 10-2 team to leave out.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
It really shouldn't be though. If you go back to week 1 and say "at the end of the year, there will be 3 undefeated P5 Champs, and the other two P5 conference Champs will both be 1 loss teams, but as fortune would have it, one of them beat the other head to head", I think the near unanimous response would be that it will be pretty easy to pick the top 4.

The nightmare scenario would have been 5 undefeated P5 champs.
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This. Easy. Not what the committee or networks wanted, but it should be easy.
 


1. Washington
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Florida State

I think that is what is should be.

But if you want a playoff with the 4 best teams, then it should be

1. Washington
2. Michigan
3. Texas
4. Georgia
 

From Bill Connelly

I was curious what a mashup of Resume SP+ and Strength of Record would have to say about the top 7. Not quite what I expected:

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Florida State (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
5. Alabama (12-1)
6. Georgia (12-1)
7. Texas (12-1)
 

No such thing as an objective ranking system, a computer is programmed subjectively. Subjective preferences for what "matters". Subjective weightings of different metrics to arrive at a "score".

Nope
 

It kind of depends on whether the committee wants the 4 most deserving teams or the 4 best teams.

4 most deserving teams: Michigan, Washington, Florida State and Texas.

4 best teams: Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama.

I would love to see the SEC shutout this year. Thankfully, there will be expanded playoffs next year.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
From Bill Connelly

I was curious what a mashup of Resume SP+ and Strength of Record would have to say about the top 7. Not quite what I expected:

1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Florida State (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
5. Alabama (12-1)
6. Georgia (12-1)
7. Texas (12-1)
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Clearly that’s not gonna happen and you posted it to show how strong FSU’s case is, but that would be INCREDIBLE, lol. Monitoring TV and radio south of the Mason-Dixon Line would be delicious.
 

I wouldn't put a dime on it happening, but I just want to see heads in Tallahassee explode from FSU not getting in.

See what they would threaten to do. Whom they would threaten to sue. Threaten to leave the ACC, threaten to leave the CFP, threaten to leave the NCAA. Etc.

Ex. Plode.
 


No one who is real actually thinks the SEC will get left out.

Come on ....
 


Panthadad2 said:
We can wish.

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Making an exception because the SEC gets left out? Unfortunately.....with the four team playoff.....teams get left out. Just so happened that it broke badly for the SEC this year. It would be a terrible precedent to bend the rules to get them in.
 

^^ Haha, it is so delicious to think about how physically impossible that would be to make happen.

They couldn't pull that off if their lives depended on it.
 

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