CFP or Rose Bowl?

[MplsGopher]

Cayman, thanks for your long, well written post.

There is one thing you’re not appreciating: the probability of winning the last four games is the product of their individual win probabilities.

Say these last four have the following win probabilities: 0.45, 0.5, 0.85, 0.5. That means the probability of going 4-0 is less than 10%.

That is considerably lower than the probability of beating Ohio State at say, 20%.

 

[Cayman]

What odds did we have of going 8-0 to this point? If you say we've had a 75% chance of winning each of our games individually thus far, that still only leaves 10% chance of being 8-0. 10% is still well worth hoping for in my mind.

 

[Flash30]

Someone needs to start a thread about what if MN does the improbable and wins the National Championship. Would it be the greatest Cinderella story of all time? Or start a poll!

 

[McGopherFan]

The CFP would seem to be the obvious answer, but the Rose Bowl has more nostalgia. Getting to the CFP means we won the B1G and are one of the top 4 teams in the country, so I’ll go with that.

In 2019/20 the CFP has to be the gold standard to strive for. It is where the Champion will be determined. There is no equal crucible.

I would like to see the U make regular runs to the Rose Bowl in what football seasons I am granted going forward. With the occasional CFP appearances to enhance relevance overall.

 

[MplsGopher]

What odds did we have of going 8-0 to this point? If you say we've had a 75% chance of winning each of our games individually thus far, that still only leaves 10% chance of being 8-0. 10% is still well worth hoping for in my mind.

You are correct.

Here is the brutal irony of all this: going 13-0 and then losing the CFP semi-final to the #1 seed 42-0 means we go 13-1 and end the season on a bitter note, while going 12-1 and winning the Rose Bowl means we go 13-1 and end one of the most memorable seasons in Gopher history with one of the most memorable wins in Gopher history.

But the thread/poll (purposefully) only cares about the first 13 games.

 

[PitinoFan]

You are correct.

Here is the brutal irony of all this: going 13-0 and then losing the CFP semi-final to the #1 seed 42-0 means we go 13-1 and end the season on a bitter note, while going 12-1 and winning the Rose Bowl means we go 13-1 and end one of the most memorable seasons in Gopher history with one of the most memorable wins in Gopher history.

But the thread/poll (purposefully) only cares about the first 13 games.

I would take the first scenario, with the undefeated Big Ten championship, even if it resulted in losing 42-0 to Alabama in the semi-final.


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[MplsGopher]

I would take the first scenario, with the undefeated Big Ten championship, even if it resulted in losing 42-0 to Alabama in the semi-final.


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My 12-1 scenario includes a Big Ten championship. No 100% guarantee of the CFP there. Who cares if we took a week off @NW to rest starters, with West title already wrapped up, to make sure we beat Wisc? No one. Doesn’t matter in the history books. Conf title trophy has the same polish on it, regardless of 12-1 or 13-0.

So I choose that

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

If you go back a few pages, you'll see he dismisses the possibility of beating all four of Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin as being so astronomically unlikely that it's not worth it to even hope that it happens. Then, immediately afterward, he suggests that beating Ohio State, which will be a tougher task than any of the prior four games will have been individually, is in fact possible, leaving the Gophers as a 12-1 Big Ten Champion, and kind of teetering on the edge of playoff vs. Rose Bowl. He then suggests that Minnesota would likely get their teeth kicked in by either Alabama or LSU in the first round of the playoff, despite the fact that this theoretical Minnesota team has just beaten an Ohio State team that is regarded to be every bit as strong as Alabama and LSU. The alternative to that is going to the Rose Bowl, and quite possibly being favored against an Oregon or Utah team that ends up maybe more toward the low end of the top 10.

So the underlying assumptions are:

1. Winning the next 4 games is either literally impossible, or so unfathomably improbable that it's silly to even want it to happen.
2. Despite the fact that going 4-0 in our next 4 games is never going to happen, going 4-1 in our next 5, including winning the toughest game we will have played all season, is possible and worth hoping for.
3. Despite that Minnesota has theoretically just beaten a team that is currently 8 AP votes shy of #1, they would be no match for the other two teams that are considered to be just a hair better than Ohio State.
4. Winning the Rose Bowl is fairly likely, and would be a significantly better outcome than losing in the playoff.

That last point can at least kinda be argued, as winning the Rose Bowl would be a tremendous accomplishment in just Fleck's third year, and ending on a win arguably leaves a better taste in fans' and recruits' mouths over the offseason instead of losing, but the other points just seem logically inconsistent.

Somewhat related, I actually found some college football account on Twitter arguing that a 12-1 Minnesota would likely make the playoff depending on whom the wins came against. He was saying if we beat Penn State and Northwestern, but lost to one of Iowa or Wisconsin before beating Ohio State to win the Big Ten, we would probably make it into the top 4, with 2 top notch wins against Penn State and Ohio State, and a not embarrassing loss to a top 25 Iowa or Wisconsin.

Cayman, Thank you for such an eloquent yet snarky reply to this crazy thread. I stand by my remarks that wishing for a Rose Bowl over the CFP makes exactly ZERO sense.

The consensus seems to be that if we make the CFP we would lose by an embarrassingly lopsided score, but if we make the Rose Bowl we will win and finish on a big note.

I will take the CFP and take my chances.........Dont be afraid to become a legend!

 

[btowngopher]

Cayman, Thank you for such an eloquent yet snarky reply to this crazy thread. I stand by my remarks that wishing for a Rose Bowl over the CFP makes exactly ZERO sense.

The consensus seems to be that if we make the CFP we would lose by an embarrassingly lopsided score, but if we make the Rose Bowl we will win and finish on a big note.

I will take the CFP and take my chances.........Dont be afraid to become a legend!

I agree completely. The ultimate goal is winning the NC, not finishing second in the B1G and making a bowl game.

 

[btowngopher]

Everyone voting rose bowl is saying they prefer not to be one game away from playing for a NC.

 

[XMan]

Always go for the route that leads to being a champion. If you get blown out you get blown out. Then learn from that and move on to the next season. We have a very tough schedule ahead and if we are still asking this question in three weeks I am going to be even more excited.

 

[Spoofin]

I’ve never in my life seen a group of people try less to understand a differing opinion than in this thread. Keep drawing conclusions and ignoring what others are saying if it makes you feel better. Yep, 38% of the most die hard Gopher fans want us to lose and are scared of (not sure what?) losing big to Alabama. That makes sense. We just ain’t as smart as yu.


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[HoustonTXGopher]

I’ve never in my life seen a group of people try less to understand a differing opinion than in this thread. Keep drawing conclusions and ignoring what others are saying if it makes you feel better. Yep, 38% of the most die hard Gopher fans want us to lose and are scared of (not sure what?) losing big to Alabama. That makes sense. We just ain’t as smart as yu.


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Thank You Spoofn, see it wasn't that hard! LOL Looks like your up over 39% now. SMDH

 

[MplsGopher]

Everyone voting rose bowl is saying they prefer not to be one game away from playing for a NC.

Why do you prefer to lose 42-0 to Alabama in the semi-final?

Why is that preferable to you?

 

[Com_Cool]

I’ve never in my life seen a group of people try less to understand a differing opinion than in this thread. Keep drawing conclusions and ignoring what others are saying if it makes you feel better. Yep, 38% of the most die hard Gopher fans want us to lose and are scared of (not sure what?) losing big to Alabama. That makes sense. We just ain’t as smart as yu.


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The best part is that no one would be disappointed with either outcome.

 

[btowngopher]

Why do you prefer to lose 42-0 to Alabama in the semi-final?

Why is that preferable to you?

It means we won the B1G for one. For two I’d rather have a shot at the NC and get killed then play some meaningless bowl game where the winning and losing mean nothing.

 

[btowngopher]

I’ve never in my life seen a group of people try less to understand a differing opinion than in this thread. Keep drawing conclusions and ignoring what others are saying if it makes you feel better. Yep, 38% of the most die hard Gopher fans want us to lose and are scared of (not sure what?) losing big to Alabama. That makes sense. We just ain’t as smart as yu.


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If you prefer the Rose Bowl then you have to prefer the gophers lose. Some obviously are scared of losing big to Bama like the guy who posted shortly after you.

 

[builtbadgers]

CFP means we had a far better year. It is in play into November ! Fleck did something critically important. He demanded and recruited high character. When you do that they will be close. Then he coached them up.

 

[MplsGopher]

It means we won the B1G for one. For two I’d rather have a shot at the NC and get killed then play some meaningless bowl game where the winning and losing mean nothing.

We can also win the Big Ten and not make the CFP. Equally likely as making it, at this point in the season with the data we have.

Second point, I highly disagree. Bowl wins aren't meaningless, unless you force yourself to pretend that they are. Or you force yourself to pretend that losing a semi-final game is more meaningful than winning a non-semi NY6 bowl game. It's subjective at that point, but I think you'll find many folks who disagree with you.

 

[MplsGopher]

If you prefer the Rose Bowl then you have to prefer the gophers lose.

This has been disproven.

It's unfortunate that so many people think this is true.

 

[MplsGopher]

CFP means we had a far better year.

This has been disproven.

The same 12-1 season, for example, can equally likely get us the CFP or the Rose Bowl, at this point in the season with the data we have.

 

[stocker08]

We can also win the Big Ten and not make the CFP. Equally likely as making it, at this point in the season with the data we have.

Second point, I highly disagree. Bowl wins aren't meaningless, unless you force yourself to pretend that they are. Or you force yourself to pretend that losing a semi-final game is more meaningful than winning a non-semi NY6 bowl game. It's subjective at that point, but I think you'll find many folks who disagree with you.

I disagree that it's a forgone conclusion that the Gophers get blown out if they make the playoffs. I do however agree that non-playoff bowl games are meaningless. That's complete bull$hit. Anytime you get a chance to add hardware to your trophy case is big. Especially if it from a high profile game. Winning the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl would be a massive accomplishment. A level of success that Gophers haven't reached in decades.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

This has been disproven.

It's unfortunate that so many people think this is true.

NO, it has not! There is no circumstance that would leave Minnesota out of the CFP if they win all their games! Therefore, if you prefer the Rose Bowl, you prefer they lose. End of story!

 

[MplsGopher]

I disagree that it's a forgone conclusion that the Gophers get blown out if they make the playoffs. I do however agree that non-playoff bowl games are meaningless. That's complete bull$hit. Anytime you get a chance to add hardware to your trophy case is big. Especially if it from a high profile game. Winning the Rose Bowl or the Orange Bowl would be a massive accomplishment. A level of success that Gophers haven't reached in decades.

You are correct, it is not certain we'd get blown out in the semi.

This poll could've been 1000% better if presented with four options: a) win the semi, b) lose the semi, c) win the Rose, d) lose the Rose. Just one of a million ways this poll/thread could've been more thoughtful and less trollish.

 

[MplsGopher]

NO, it has not! There is no circumstance that would leave Minnesota out of the CFP if they win all their games! Therefore, if you prefer the Rose Bowl, you prefer they lose. End of story!

False argument.

The thread does not say "13 wins and CFP" and "<13 wins and Rose". You are moving the goalposts to fit your agenda.

The fact of the matter is that we could be selected for the CFP with 12 wins. That is possible. Therefore, it is false for you to pretend and declare that the first option requires a necessary/sufficient condition of 13 wins.

 

[GopherVotary]

NO, it has not! There is no circumstance that would leave Minnesota out of the CFP if they win all their games! Therefore, if you prefer the Rose Bowl, you prefer they lose. End of story!

Really sucks when people don’t all share your opinion, huh?

 

[RodentRampage]

This has been disproven.

You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.


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[Section2]

It means we won the B1G for one. For two I’d rather have a shot at the NC and get killed then play some meaningless bowl game where the winning and losing mean nothing.

If you think playing in the Rose Bowl is meaningless, I question whether you have ever been a gopher fan.


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[HoustonTXGopher]

False argument.

The thread does not say "13 wins and CFP" and "<13 wins and Rose". You are moving the goalposts to fit your agenda.

The fact of the matter is that we could be selected for the CFP with 12 wins. That is possible. Therefore, it is false for you to pretend and declare that the first option requires a necessary/sufficient condition of 13 wins.

Where would you prefer to see the Gophers end up this season? Would you rather that they played in the College Football Playoffs or the Rose Bowl? That was the question!

Therefore, if you would rather the Gophers play in the Rose Bowl, you would rather they lose a game in order to get there. The question does not assume any Gopher losses, you moved the goalpost to get to that assumption.

I would prefer the Gophers win all their games and get to the CFP, and if they lose a game, I still prefer they go to the CFP. The CFP is the only route for a national championship. Period, end of story.

 

[MplsGopher]

I would prefer the Gophers win all their games and get to the CFP, and if they lose a game, I still prefer they go to the CFP.

That’s not what the poll asked, you’re moving the goalposts.

Make a new thread/poll to ask that specifically.