CFN: Seven wins has to be a given at this point for the Gophers under Fleck. Eight would be good, nine would be fantastic.

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Minnesota Golden Gophers Season Prediction, What Will Happen​

Okay, Minnesota. We’re done with losing to the Bowling Greens of the world, right?

Under PJ Fleck, the Gophers occasionally have this annoying habit of needing to work way too hard against mediocre non-conference teams.

In the past they were able to win them all even when a a South Dakota State – not mediocre, just FCS – or a Fresno State or a Buffalo made things interesting. The Bowling Green loss shook that.

So assuming the Gophers got the yips out of their system, the first part of the schedule works perfectly. They need time to gear back up and find the right groove among all the new defensive players and on the line, and that’s what New Mexico State and Western Illinois are for.

There’s no Ohio State to start the season like this year or Michigan to kickoff 2020.

That should be enough scrimmage time to handle a Colorado team that has to come to Minneapolis, and then it’s on with a trip to Michigan State to start the Big Ten season.

Minnesota should be 3-0, and it should be able to take care of Northwestern and Rutgers in Huntington Bank.

Purdue, at Illinois, at Nebraska – get two wins in that group and everything is great, but it’ll more likely be one.

At Michigan State, at Penn State, at Wisconsin – all three of those lean heavily to the loss column, and as mentioned before, beating Iowa for this program is a problem.

There’s no Ohio State or Michigan to face, but there will be loss Minnesota shouldn’t take – look out for Rutgers; really – and two wins it probably will end up stealing – at Nebraska? at Michigan State?

Seven wins has to be a given at this point for the Gophers under Fleck. Eight would be good, nine would be fantastic.

collegefootballnews.com

Minnesota Golden Gophers Preview 2022: Season Prediction, Breakdown, Key Games, Players

Minnesota College Football Preview 2022: Team breakdown, season prediction, keys to the campaign, and what you need to know
collegefootballnews.com collegefootballnews.com

Go Gophers!!
 



I know some close wins and I know bowling green.
But PJ is 14-1 (93%) in non big ten games
Kirk Ferenz is 67-32 (68%)
Paul Chryst is 21-7 (75%)
Pat Fitzgerald is 44-21 (68%)
Scott frost is 5-4 (56%)


So I guess I’ll talk what we have?
I know a lot are cupcakes but that’s true of the others as well. And of those 14 non conference wins it includes:
Auburn
Georgia tech
@colorado
@oregon state



I don’t really disagree with much of the article. But I thought it was a really odd way to start it
 

8 regular season wins became a given under Kill/Claeys (2013, 2014, 2016).

Only non 8 win season was 6-7 in disrupted 2015 when Kill left for the last time mid-season and Gophs had killer schedule.

2015 losses included #1 OSU in Columbus (it was 21-14 with two minutes left) , #2 TCU (23-17 opening night sro at TCF), #5 Hawkeyes in Iowa (35-40 SRO), #15 Michigan (should have won at TCF)...also lost to a 10-3 NW (#16) and 10-3 WI (#21).

Fleck in year six is taking Gophers to new level, like he did in 2019.
He said 8-4 last year was a failure on his part, not the team's. Should have been at least 10-2.
All the guys coming back for year six or transfering in for year six aren't thinking 8-4.
All the four-stars that have been signing on the last few years aren't here for 8-4.

He has his guy Kirk back at the helm of offense.
He has his 2019 2nd-team AllBig QB back for year 6 and great QB depth.
He has 2021 pre-season All-American RB Ibrahim healthy, veteran depth with Potts, Williams and a star in frosh Evans.
He has 5 NFL WRs.
He loves his TEs and is ready to use them in passing game. BSF could be AllBig type TE.

He has a sixth year pre-season AllAmerican anchoring the line.
He has two Big Ten seasoned six year guys at guard.
He has the most talented guy he's ever had at left tackle.
He's got a four-star ND transfer (fourth year guy) battling at right tackle, and he might not beat out the high three-star fourth year guy.
He's got veteran depth on OL.
Calls Callahan one of best coaches in nation.
He says this o-line may end up better than 2021 oline that saw three end up in NFL camps and one with most starts ever in Med School.

He has great continuity with same RB coach, oline coach, wr coach, and OC that he had at WMU. New TE coach was on staff two years at WMU and here in 2017 and 2019.

ST coach has been on staff since WMU.
He has veteran kicker, punter, snapper (and some depth there). He has some nice return weapons.

Strength coach has been with since WMU and PJ says he is among best in nation. Asst S&C guy on board since 2017.
Operations guy has been with PJ since WMU, player personnel also came over from WMU, player development guy in year six, recruiting coordinator in year 11 at MN.

He had a top ten defense in 2021 and he says this secondary is best he's had.
He says D-line may be better than 2021 with more athleticism.
He says lb corps is deepest he's had.

He was able to keep Rossi at the helm (came on board in 2017; DC since mid-2018; DC at Rutgers prior).
Paul Haynes, a 25 year veteran and former head coach and big time DC, is on board for year three to lead the DBs and asst DC.
Danny Collins is new as official defensive assistant, but has been on Fleck staff in other roles since WMU days.
Added veteran d-line coach who has been at Mizzou, Texas, LSU, Clemson, Baylor.

He has worked the sixth-year clause to his benefit
He has worked the no year sit-out transfer portal to his benefit.
He has the best football friendly AD, President, and Regents in last 50 years at U of M.
He has best facilities and player support Gopher football has ever had.
More money available for coaches than ever before.

He gets a great all at home non-conference to work out any bugs. Includes worst team in FBS, an FCS team, and a Colorado team that he embarassed in Boulder coming into his place with an OC that he canned.

He avoids OSU and Michigan.
Draws worst team in East as third crossover.
Appears NW and NE are not what they were even a few years back.

He gets Iowa at home.
He gets Purdue at home in week five after Boilers face PSU week one and Syracuse week three.

He gets MSU flying back week 4 from Seattle versus Washington. Should get good film vs UW.

Gets Illini as they come off games vs Badgers and Hawks.

Gets Penn State after trip to Ann Arbor, before OSU comes into Happy Valley.

I think PJ would be disappointed with 9-3 with everything he has got going his way heading in to 2022.
 
Last edited:


swingman said:
8 regular season wins became a given under Kill/Claeys (2013, 2014, 2016).

Only non 8 win season was 6-7 in disrupted 2015 when Kill left for the last time mid-season and Gophs had killer schedule.
.
.
Click to expand...
kill/claeys wins by season
3
6
8
8
6
9


I’m not sure you can call 8 wins a given when it only happened half the time. If that is the case…
6 wins became a given under Brewster. Apart from the first year and the season disrupted by coaching change, it was always 6
 

For sure wins: NMSU, Western Ill. Win 2
Should definitely win: Colorado, Rutgers, NW, @Ill. Win 4
50/50: Iowa, @ Neb, Purdue. Win 2
Slight underdogs/will be tough to win: @Wisc, @PSU, @MSU. Win 1

That's a solid 9 win season, with a good chance to pull out another in the last 2 categories for 10 wins.
 


However many it takes to win the West will be fantastic- any less is disappointing.
 



swingman said:
8 regular season wins became a given under Kill/Claeys (2013, 2014, 2016).

...
Click to expand...
In this context, "given" is: Something that is certain to happen. Something taken for granted.

Under Kill/Claeys, 6 regular season wins were probably certain to happen. 8 wins? That was the ceiling.
 

kisarazu said:
In this context, "given" is: Something that is certain to happen. Something taken for granted.

Under Kill/Claeys, 6 regular season wins were probably certain to happen. 8 wins? That was the ceiling.
Click to expand...
Claeys got 9.
 






swingman said:
8 regular season wins became a given under Kill/Claeys (2013, 2014, 2016).

Only non 8 win season was 6-7 in disrupted 2015 when Kill left for the last time mid-season and Gophs had killer schedule.

2015 losses included #1 OSU in Columbus (it was 21-14 with two minutes left) , #2 TCU (23-17 opening night sro at TCF), #5 Hawkeyes in Iowa (35-40 SRO), #15 Michigan (should have won at TCF)...also lost to a 10-3 NW (#16) and 10-3 WI (#21).

Fleck in year six is taking Gophers to new level, like he did in 2019.
He said 8-4 last year was a failure on his part, not the team's. Should have been at least 10-2.
All the guys coming back for year six or transfering in for year six aren't thinking 8-4.
All the four-stars that have been signing on the last few years aren't here for 8-4.

He has his guy Kirk back at the helm of offense.
He has his 2019 2nd-team AllBig QB back for year 6 and great QB depth.
He has 2021 pre-season All-American RB Ibrahim healthy, veteran depth with Potts, Williams and a star in frosh Evans.
He has 5 NFL WRs.
He loves his TEs and is ready to use them in passing game. BSF could be AllBig type TE.

He has a sixth year pre-season AllAmerican anchoring the line.
He has two Big Ten seasoned six year guys at guard.
He has the most talented guy he's ever had at left tackle.
He's got a four-star ND transfer battling at right tackle.
He's got veteran depth on OL.
Calls Callahan one of best coaches in nation.
He says this o-line may end up better than 2021 oline that saw three end up in NFL camps and one with most starts ever in Med School.

He has great continuity with same RB coach, oline coach, wr coach, and OC that he had at WMU. New TE coach was on staff two years at WMU and here in 2017 and 2019.

ST coach has been on staff since WMU.
He has veteran kicker, punter, snapper (and some depth there). He has some nice return weapons.
Strength coach has been with since WMU and PJ says he is among best in nation.

He had a top ten defense in 2021 and he says this secondary is best he's had.
He says D-line may be better than 2021 with more athleticism.
He says lb corps is deepest he's had.

He was able to keep Rossi at the helm (came on board in 2017; DC since mid-2018; DC at Rutgers prior).
Paul Haynes, a 25 year veteran and former head coach and big time DC , is on board for year three to lead the DBs and asst DC.
Danny Collins is new as official defensive assistant, but has been on Fleck staff in other roles since WMU days.
Added veteran d-line coach who has been at Mizzou, Texas, LSU, Clemson, Baylor.

He has worked the sixth-year clause to his benefit
He has worked the no year sit-out transfer portal to his benefit.
He has the best football friendly AD, President, and Regents in last 50 years at U of M.
He has best facilities and player support Gopher football has ever had.
More money available for coaches than ever before.

He gets a great all at home non-conference to work out any bugs. Includes worst team in FBS, an FCS team, and a Colorado team that he embarassed in Boulder coming into his place with an OC that he canned.

He avoids OSU and Michigan.

He gets Iowa at home.
He gets Purdue at home in week five after facing PSU week one and Syracuse week three.

He gets MSU flying back from Seattle versus Washington. Should get good film vs UW.

Gets Illini as they come off games vs Badgers and Hawks.

Gets Penn State after trip to Ann Arbor, before OSU comes into Happy Valley.

I think PJ would be disappointed with 9-3 with everything he has got going his way heading in to 2022.
Click to expand...
Let's Go!!!
 

kisarazu said:
In this context, "given" is: Something that is certain to happen. Something taken for granted.

Under Kill/Claeys, 6 regular season wins were probably certain to happen. 8 wins? That was the ceiling.
Click to expand...
2016 and the nine wins begs to differ
 


Quotes from the CFN article:

"... and as mentioned before, beating Iowa for this program is a problem."

"Purdue, at Illinois, at Nebraska – get two wins in that group and everything is great, but it’ll more likely be one."


Let's see... the author mentions Minnesota's struggles with Iowa, and claims they are indications of a trend that will likely continue.

However, Minnesota's recent winning ways versus Nebraska and Purdue do NOT seem to point to a likelihood of any sort of continued future success.

Hmmmmm, I wonder... why the inconsistency?
 

Gophers1992 said:
For sure wins: NMSU, Western Ill. Win 2
Should definitely win: Colorado, Rutgers, NW, @Ill. Win 4
50/50: Iowa, @ Neb, Purdue. Win 2
Slight underdogs/will be tough to win: @Wisc, @PSU, @MSU. Win 1

That's a solid 9 win season, with a good chance to pull out another in the last 2 categories for 10 wins.
Click to expand...
I think I would make a new category just for Neb, in between 50/50 and should definitely win
 

swingman said:
8 regular season wins became a given under Kill/Claeys (2013, 2014, 2016).

Only non 8 win season was 6-7 in disrupted 2015 when Kill left for the last time mid-season and Gophs had killer schedule.

2015 losses included #1 OSU in Columbus (it was 21-14 with two minutes left) , #2 TCU (23-17 opening night sro at TCF), #5 Hawkeyes in Iowa (35-40 SRO), #15 Michigan (should have won at TCF)...also lost to a 10-3 NW (#16) and 10-3 WI (#21).

Fleck in year six is taking Gophers to new level, like he did in 2019.
He said 8-4 last year was a failure on his part, not the team's. Should have been at least 10-2.
All the guys coming back for year six or transfering in for year six aren't thinking 8-4.
All the four-stars that have been signing on the last few years aren't here for 8-4.

He has his guy Kirk back at the helm of offense.
He has his 2019 2nd-team AllBig QB back for year 6 and great QB depth.
He has 2021 pre-season All-American RB Ibrahim healthy, veteran depth with Potts, Williams and a star in frosh Evans.
He has 5 NFL WRs.
He loves his TEs and is ready to use them in passing game. BSF could be AllBig type TE.

He has a sixth year pre-season AllAmerican anchoring the line.
He has two Big Ten seasoned six year guys at guard.
He has the most talented guy he's ever had at left tackle.
He's got a four-star ND transfer battling at right tackle.
He's got veteran depth on OL.
Calls Callahan one of best coaches in nation.
He says this o-line may end up better than 2021 oline that saw three end up in NFL camps and one with most starts ever in Med School.

He has great continuity with same RB coach, oline coach, wr coach, and OC that he had at WMU. New TE coach was on staff two years at WMU and here in 2017 and 2019.

ST coach has been on staff since WMU.
He has veteran kicker, punter, snapper (and some depth there). He has some nice return weapons.
Strength coach has been with since WMU and PJ says he is among best in nation.

He had a top ten defense in 2021 and he says this secondary is best he's had.
He says D-line may be better than 2021 with more athleticism.
He says lb corps is deepest he's had.

He was able to keep Rossi at the helm (came on board in 2017; DC since mid-2018; DC at Rutgers prior).
Paul Haynes, a 25 year veteran and former head coach and big time DC , is on board for year three to lead the DBs and asst DC.
Danny Collins is new as official defensive assistant, but has been on Fleck staff in other roles since WMU days.
Added veteran d-line coach who has been at Mizzou, Texas, LSU, Clemson, Baylor.

He has worked the sixth-year clause to his benefit
He has worked the no year sit-out transfer portal to his benefit.
He has the best football friendly AD, President, and Regents in last 50 years at U of M.
He has best facilities and player support Gopher football has ever had.
More money available for coaches than ever before.

He gets a great all at home non-conference to work out any bugs. Includes worst team in FBS, an FCS team, and a Colorado team that he embarassed in Boulder coming into his place with an OC that he canned.

He avoids OSU and Michigan.

He gets Iowa at home.
He gets Purdue at home in week five after facing PSU week one and Syracuse week three.

He gets MSU flying back from Seattle versus Washington. Should get good film vs UW.

Gets Illini as they come off games vs Badgers and Hawks.

Gets Penn State after trip to Ann Arbor, before OSU comes into Happy Valley.

I think PJ would be disappointed with 9-3 with everything he has got going his way heading in to 2022.
Click to expand...
This is spectacular. Rooting for Minnesota sports my whole life has me cautiously optimistic and trying to block out the... we'll have some weird, key injury that will hamper the season mindset. Let's roll!
 

I have to say, 7 wins/season is an interesting number to judge B1G coaches by. Would we be satisfied with a coach who regularly produces 7 wins/season?

As an obvious comparison, look at Ferentz and his incredibly long career as head coach at Iowa.

In 22 seasons (a huge sample size compared to most B1G coaching careers), Ferentz has won 178 games. That's about 7.7 wins/season. This would indicate that most decision-makers at Iowa consider him quite successful. After all, he's been there one helluva long time.

In 22 seasons, Ferentz has come up short of 7 wins exactly 6 times. Two of those under-7 seasons were in his first two years at the helm, and one was a 6-2 record in 2020 (COVID-shortened season). Ferentz has also hit the number and won exactly 7 games/season 4 times at Iowa.

So: in 10 out of 22 seasons, Kirk Ferentz won 7 games or less. He has won 2 B1G titles, but the most recent one was in 2004. He has won 2 division titles, taking the West in 2015 and in 2021.

7.7 wins/season, 2 West titles and 2 B1G championships in 22 seasons. 10 Top 25 rankings, with the highest final national ranking being 7th in 2009, when the Hawkeyes finished with an 11-2 record. His B1G conference record is 110-79, (58%). Non conference: 68-31, (68%). His bowl game record is 9-9, (50%).

All of which begs the question: Would this level of success satisfy Gopher football fans?
 
Last edited:

SPB_Gophers said:
I think I would make a new category just for Neb, in between 50/50 and should definitely win
Click to expand...
Nebraska is the second worst team in the division and probably the third worst in the conference IMO

Rumors out of Lincoln is that frost doesn’t really even control things and Trev has basically told frost to leave his coordinators alone

I think Nebraska could lose the opener and might not even be the coach by the time of the Minnesota game
 

RememberMurray said:
I have to say, 7 wins/season is an interesting number to judge B1G coaches by. Would we be satisfied with a coach who regularly produces 7 wins/season?

As an obvious comparison, look at Ferentz and his incredibly long career as head coach at Iowa.

In 22 seasons (a huge sample size compared to most B1G coaching careers), Ferentz has won 178 games. That's about 7.7 wins/season. This would indicate that most decision-makers at Iowa consider him quite successful. After all, he's been there one helluva long time.

In 22 seasons, Ferentz has come up short of 7 wins exactly 6 times. Two of those under-7 seasons were in his first two years at the helm, and one was a 6-2 record in 2020 (COVID-shortened season). Ferentz has also hit the number and won exactly 7 games/season 4 times at Iowa.

So: in 10 out of 22 seasons, Kirk Ferentz won 7 games or less. He has won 2 B1G titles, but the most recent one was in 2004. He has won 2 division titles, taking the West in 2015 and in 2021.

7.7 wins/season, 2 West titles and 2 B1G championships in 22 seasons. 10 Top 25 rankings, with the highest final national ranking being 7th in 2009, when the Hawkeyes finished with an 11-2 record. His B1G conference record is 110-79, (58%). Non conference: 68-31, (68%). His bowl game record is 9-9, (50%).

All of which begs the question: Would this level of success satisfy Gopher football fans?
Click to expand...
I'd be ok with it, though I want us to peak higher than Ferentz has (he has no outright B10 titles). He has been to multiple BCS games too is something to keep in mind. He had some down periods (2011-14) that drag down that average a bit, but I'd be ok if PJ had the occasional 5-6 win season if it means some 10 win seasons here and there.

Now excuse me while I go take a shower after saying nice things about Ferentz the scumbag.
 

The B1G West has won zero championships since realignment. Since Iowa last won their title in 2004, OSU has won over half the B1G titles. Sadly the current bar of success for West coaches is not B1G championships, it is West division titles and/or NY6 bowls.
 

RememberMurray said:
I have to say, 7 wins/season is an interesting number to judge B1G coaches by. Would we be satisfied with a coach who regularly produces 7 wins/season?

As an obvious comparison, look at Ferentz and his incredibly long career as head coach at Iowa.

In 22 seasons (a huge sample size compared to most B1G coaching careers), Ferentz has won 178 games. That's about 7.7 wins/season. This would indicate that most decision-makers at Iowa consider him quite successful. After all, he's been there one helluva long time.

In 22 seasons, Ferentz has come up short of 7 wins exactly 6 times. Two of those under-7 seasons were in his first two years at the helm, and one was a 6-2 record in 2020 (COVID-shortened season). Ferentz has also hit the number and won exactly 7 games/season 4 times at Iowa.

So: in 10 out of 22 seasons, Kirk Ferentz won 7 games or less. He has won 2 B1G titles, but the most recent one was in 2004. He has won 2 division titles, taking the West in 2015 and in 2021.

7.7 wins/season, 2 West titles and 2 B1G championships in 22 seasons. 10 Top 25 rankings, with the highest final national ranking being 7th in 2009, when the Hawkeyes finished with an 11-2 record. His B1G conference record is 110-79, (58%). Non conference: 68-31, (68%). His bowl game record is 9-9, (50%).

All of which begs the question: Would this level of success satisfy Gopher football fans?
Click to expand...
If the gophers experienced the success of ferentz 1999-2005 the coach would get to be the coach as long as he could go .500 or better in 5/6 seasons following that.

If the seasons happened in reverse order it wouldn’t be enough success.
If the gophers win 2 big ten titles in flecks first 6 years. Things would have to get much worse than 6-6 to get him on hot seat
 

RememberMurray said:
I have to say, 7 wins/season is an interesting number to judge B1G coaches by. Would we be satisfied with a coach who regularly produces 7 wins/season?

As an obvious comparison, look at Ferentz and his incredibly long career as head coach at Iowa.

In 22 seasons (a huge sample size compared to most B1G coaching careers), Ferentz has won 178 games. That's about 7.7 wins/season. This would indicate that most decision-makers at Iowa consider him quite successful. After all, he's been there one helluva long time.

In 22 seasons, Ferentz has come up short of 7 wins exactly 6 times. Two of those under-7 seasons were in his first two years at the helm, and one was a 6-2 record in 2020 (COVID-shortened season). Ferentz has also hit the number and won exactly 7 games/season 4 times at Iowa.

So: in 10 out of 22 seasons, Kirk Ferentz won 7 games or less. He has won 2 B1G titles, but the most recent one was in 2004. He has won 2 division titles, taking the West in 2015 and in 2021.

7.7 wins/season, 2 West titles and 2 B1G championships in 22 seasons. 10 Top 25 rankings, with the highest final national ranking being 7th in 2009, when the Hawkeyes finished with an 11-2 record. His B1G conference record is 110-79, (58%). Non conference: 68-31, (68%). His bowl game record is 9-9, (50%).

All of which begs the question: Would this level of success satisfy Gopher football fans?
Click to expand...
It is an interesting question. I would hope for the majority of Gopher fans that level of success would be good enough in this current college football landscape where it is going to be very tough for the U to ever compete with the upper echelon teams on a regular basis.

No matter what there will always be negative voices (Ferentz has plenty of detractors in Iowa as well). Some can't get past the if you're not first you're last mentality with sports.
 

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