CBS predicts Gophers will go 5-7 (wins: North Carolina, Rhode Island, Nevada, Iowa, Maryland)

[GopherMarroon]

5 is the solid floor for the Gophers. Gopher floor is 5 wins.

The commentators don't think Gophers will climb up off the floor.

The right answer is that the Gophers will climb up higher than 5. We don't how much.

1,2,3 wins more... nobody knows.


Transfer Portal
Just look at the players coming in for the passing game. Perfect examples of unpredictability with upside.


WR Tyler Williams, a four-star prospect. What a great pickup. Gophers will torch defenses. Except he's coming from Georgia and didn't play because he was stuck on the depth chart -- unproven.

Tyler Williams, Georgia Bulldogs, Wide Receiver

Also plays basketball and holds an offer to play hoops for Florida Gulf Coast. Averaged 11.6 points per game on the hardwood as a sophomore before averaging...

247sports.com

QB Max Brosmer, finally a reliable veteran who put up huge numbers. A four-star prospect. Except that was at New Hampshire. He has zero track record in the big leagues.

Max Brosmer - Football - University of Minnesota Athletics

Max Brosmer (16) QB - PRONUNCIATION Your browser does not support HTML5 audio. HONORS: At New Hampshire AP Second Team FCS All-American (2023) FCS Football C...

gophersports.com

Who can predict that? Is that 1, 2, or 3 more wins?


Gophers may have a top run game in the nation. The offensive line is good. Taylor is the real deal. The stable is deep.

5 is the floor.

Is it the floor, 1, 2 or 3?

 

[btowngopher]

This data will be updated based on this coming season's results, obviously, but based off last season's outcomes, in Sagarin UCLA finished 8th among 2024 Big Ten teams (ahead of wisconsin and Iowa) and we finished 16th (ahead of only Indiana and Michigan St.). Based on that data, we would be a 14-point underdog at the Rose Bowl.

There are a lot of confounding variables, including among others:

- UCLA played a Pac-12 schedule last year
- UCLA lost an experienced, seasoned, and successful head coach
- UCLA hired a first-time head coach who is wholly unqualified and wouldn't have been hired as head coach at most FCS schools; essentially, the Ben Johnson of Big Ten football
- both rosters have massive turnover since last season
- Minnesota has a new QB and new coaches in key spots

Even taking the above into account, based on current available data, saying that UCLA "suck(s) ass" is bizarre at best and naked attention-seeking at worst.

I would love to be wrong, and I hope I am (particularly since I will be attending the game), but I would be delightfully surprised if we aren't significant underdogs on October 12, even in spite of the opposition's coaching staff likely being an embarrassment.

Not sure what turnover UCLA had with their roster, but I think our roster had below average turnover. I do agree that I don’t think UCLA is nearly as bad as this forum seems to think.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

Big Bert is 3-0 against PJ (2 of his 3 wins with rosters inferior to the Gophs’ IMHO) and 10-0 overall against the Gophers. Bert pulls out all stops in the 4th Q; PJ turtles in the 4th Q.

Honestly, Bert beating us while at Illinois might piss me off more than any other negative during the PJ era. We can't let that smug bastard own us like that.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

And Bertie is certainly beatable. At Arkansas he was 29-34 overall thanks to his non-conference scheduling.

In the SEC? He was 11-29. Finishing at .500 or above once (5-3) in his 5 years there.

Kind of lines up with his 3 years at Illinois where he is 18-19 overall and 12-15 in the Big Ten.

Bert is certainly beatable, but PJ has something going on in his head in games against Bert. I feel as though the Gophers have beat themselves in 2 of PJ's 3 losses to Bert. Maybe this year is the charm.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Ideally, we open the season healthy at all key positions. After four games, including UNC and Iowa, we will know a lot about what this team can do if healthy. If we are 4-0 (not what the pundits think!), the floor become 6 wins--and a bowl--with 2 or 3 more wins not only possible but plausible. To get to 9 wins, though, PJ needs to break out of his "turtling" mental block and beat Illinois Bert soundly, and the Gophs need to beat both Iowa and Wisconsin in the same season--which they haven't done yet in the 21st Century. Tall order, but possible until proven otherwise. Go Gophers!

Now, if we lose to both UNC and Iowa ... I don't want to think about it.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

remember - these previews are generally being written by people who have not done a detailed study of the Gopher roster. they're basing their predictions off of a lot of general assumptions.

as in:
*Gophers were 6-7 last year, 3-6 in the conference.
*no more Big Ten West division - so schedule on paper is more difficult
*lost a highly-regarded DC. New DC has never been a DC at the FBS level.
*lost best defensive player to NFL
*offense struggled last season
*new QB is coming from FCS level

add that all up and if you're a national writer, it's easy to see why people don't expect a lot from the Gophers.

Now, I think the Gophers can certainly be better than a 6-win team, but several things have to go in their favor.

 

[Jack jones]

With all the variables that SON mentioned, 3 wins might happened.

 

[Word]

With all the variables that SON mentioned, 3 wins might happened.

The new QB is probably worth 2 wins. Old DC looked lost last year..... running backs and lbs healthy...oc with a year of experience...I think we will for sure be better than last year.

How do your Hawkeyes look?

 

[Some guy]

remember - these previews are generally being written by people who have not done a detailed study of the Gopher roster. they're basing their predictions off of a lot of general assumptions.

as in:
*Gophers were 6-7 last year, 3-6 in the conference.
*no more Big Ten West division - so schedule on paper is more difficult
*lost a highly-regarded DC. New DC has never been a DC at the FBS level.
*lost best defensive player to NFL
*offense struggled last season
*new QB is coming from FCS level

add that all up and if you're a national writer, it's easy to see why people don't expect a lot from the Gophers.

Now, I think the Gophers can certainly be better than a 6-win team, but several things have to go in their favor.

The schedule last year maybe was harder than the schedule this year.
Will be harder to make conference title game this year. Similar difficulty to win 6 or 9 games though

 

[Some guy]

Bert is certainly beatable, but PJ has something going on in his head in games against Bert. I feel as though the Gophers have beat themselves in 2 of PJ's 3 losses to Bert. Maybe this year is the charm.

I don’t think the gophers beating themselves in 2021 has anything to do with the head coach being in his own head.
Nor do I think the defensive collapse in 2023 has much to do with PJ being in his own head.

PJ certainly failed to have his team win the game. I’m not sure it’s some physiological hurdle though

 

[short ornery norwegian]

The schedule last year maybe was harder than the schedule this year.
Will be harder to make conference title game this year. Similar difficulty to win 6 or 9 games though

my point in the earlier post was - this is how national writers perceive things. the perception was that the B1G West was an 'easier' division. Now, no more divisions, so the schedule 'must' be more difficult.

as far as the schedule:
these opponents are the same in '23 & '24: IA, Mich, Ill, Wisc, and NCar (non-conf)

as far as the schedule differences -- ('23 records)
non-conf:
23: E. Michigan(6-7) & Louisiana(6-7) -- 12-14 overall
24: Rhode Island(6-5) and Nevada(2-10) -- 8-15 overall ('23 non-conf looks stronger)

Conf:
23: MSU (4-8), Purdue(4-8), Neb(5-7), NWest(8-5), OSU(11-2) -- 32-30 overall
24: PSU(10-3), USC(8-5), UCLA(8-5), Rutg(7-6), Mary(8-5) -- 41-24 overall

on paper, the '24 schedule looks stronger. granted, some teams may be better or worse than they were last season, but just going by what they did last year, the '24 schedule seems more challenging.

 

[Some guy]

my point in the earlier post was - this is how national writers perceive things. the perception was that the B1G West was an 'easier' division. Now, no more divisions, so the schedule 'must' be more difficult.

as far as the schedule:
these opponents are the same in '23 & '24: IA, Mich, Ill, Wisc, and NCar (non-conf)

as far as the schedule differences -- ('23 records)
non-conf:
23: E. Michigan(6-7) & Louisiana(6-7) -- 12-14 overall
24: Rhode Island(6-5) and Nevada(2-10) -- 8-15 overall ('23 non-conf looks stronger)

Conf:
23: MSU (4-8), Purdue(4-8), Neb(5-7), NWest(8-5), OSU(11-2) -- 32-30 overall
24: PSU(10-3), USC(8-5), UCLA(8-5), Rutg(7-6), Mary(8-5) -- 41-24 overall

on paper, the '24 schedule looks stronger. granted, some teams may be better or worse than they were last season, but just going by what they did last year, the '24 schedule seems more challenging.

More challenging to do what though is kind of my point

It would be much easier to go 12-0 against the 2024 schedule assuming Michigan steps back even a tiny bit next year as the gophers miss the top 2 opponents in the conference.
Probably easier to go 6-6 against the 2023 schedule. But marginal.

This is not me saying I think they will go 12-0

 

[caliGopher]

The schedule last year maybe was harder than the schedule this year.
Will be harder to make conference title game this year. Similar difficulty to win 6 or 9 games though

schedule last year was harder than this year? Interesting take. We could win 12 games, I don't see fewer than 3 wins. We'll end up somewhere in between. Looking at the trend, we'll lose to a team we shouldn't, and will have a better showing than expected against at least one of the top 3 teams we play. We'll have to rely on a little help along the way. Whether it's 5 conference games with a majority of the snaps taken by the backup qb (Ala 2019) or getting a repreive from a total special teams meltdown due to an opposing player making an equally stupid mistake, we'll need all the help we can get in 2024