CBS: Momentum rapidly growing for College Football Playoff expansion to eight or more teams

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Was listening to Fox Sports Radio on Saturday. don't know the names of the hosts. They were taking about the 12-game playoff format, and made two main points. (I am not saying I agree or disagree - just offering their viewpoint).

1. this increases the exploitation of college athletes. FB players will be playing more games per season and they should be compensated more fairly.

2. A longer playoff series with more games will result in more draft-eligible players opting out of the playoffs to avoid injury because they don't want to hurt their NFL draft status. (the hosts were speculating that most of the star players would skip the playoffs, resulting in a national championship being decided by Sophomores and second-string players............)
 

Well, 1. is what it is. That's a whole ball of wax, and then some, to debate endlessly about.

2. is a fair point, but curious to see how it actually plays out. The counter-argument would be: the NFL teams, either organically, or on behalf of their defacto partnership with FBS as their defacto minor league farm system, look down upon players who skip out on the playoffs (and thus devalue it). Maybe even when the money/contracts come in for college players, they'll be legally required to play in the playoffs or face severe fines/penalties.

Would you want to draft a guy who left his team high and dry on their chance to win the natty? It's one thing for a bowl game, where the team can't win a championship no matter what. The playoff seems to be a different story ... at least I would hope.

Because, at some level, you could really argue that a super-star 3rd year player should just skip the season, to avoid the risk. Where do you draw the line?
 


short ornery norwegian said:
Was listening to Fox Sports Radio on Saturday. don't know the names of the hosts. They were taking about the 12-game playoff format, and made two main points. (I am not saying I agree or disagree - just offering their viewpoint).

1. this increases the exploitation of college athletes. FB players will be playing more games per season and they should be compensated more fairly.

2. A longer playoff series with more games will result in more draft-eligible players opting out of the playoffs to avoid injury because they don't want to hurt their NFL draft status. (the hosts were speculating that most of the star players would skip the playoffs, resulting in a national championship being decided by Sophomores and second-string players............)
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Interesting, thanks.
#1, I absolutely agree and thought about that instantly upon hearing the proposal.
#2, I absolutely disagree. I only remember one player ever opting out of a season in which his team was in the title hunt and that was the OSU DE (sorry, forgot his name), and he was already rehabbing from an injury if I remember correctly. How many guys have ever opted out of a conference championship game or the playoffs? I honestly don't remember any others.
 

MGGopher said:
Interesting, thanks.
#1, I absolutely agree and thought about that instantly upon hearing the proposal.
#2, I absolutely disagree. I only remember one player ever opting out of a season in which his team was in the title hunt and that was the OSU DE (sorry, forgot his name), and he was already rehabbing from an injury if I remember correctly. How many guys have ever opted out of a conference championship game or the playoffs? I honestly don't remember any others.
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#2. Once one player does it, others will too. It’s a massive financial risk to some of these players to play.
 


btowngopher said:
#2. Once one player does it, others will too. It’s a massive financial risk to some of these players to play.
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The whole season is. That’s no different than a conference title game or a regular season game.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
There is still incentive to try and win a Conf title or at least finish with the best possible record to get the 1st round bye or, if you're seeded 5-8, get a home game in the first round.

Coaches being what they are, I suspect that Coaches will tell their players to focus on the regular season, and don't even think about playoffs until the regular season is over, including conference championship games. Win enough games, and the playoffs will take care of themselves.
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Yup.
huge incentive to be top 4
Huge incentive to be 5-8 instead of 9-12

My issue is with 6 at large bids. Wish it was 2+ at larges with auto bids for any champ in some sort of objective top 20 (like a college football pair wise ranking or something).
 

short ornery norwegian said:
2. A longer playoff series with more games will result in more draft-eligible players opting out of the playoffs to avoid injury because they don't want to hurt their NFL draft status.
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Wut?

Most of the opt outs we've seen have been non playoff contenders I thought.

Suddenly they're not going to want to play in playoffs?
 

A few reasons why I'm a big fan of the proposed 12-team playoff:

1. Schools hosting first-round games. I think this speaks for itself. Apart from bringing an awesome atmosphere to 4 campuses, imagine some of the scenarios. 9-seed Florida has to play at 8-seed Minnesota (replace with any northern team you want) in December/January? We've always liked talking about how SEC teams would never want to play in the cold, now we'll be able to see it.

2. Selection controversy. This will exist no matter the number of teams included. However, those left out will hardly have a leg to stand on, and the debate will be far less. If you couldn't make a 12-team field, how on earth would you have a chance to beat the best in the country?

3. Recruiting. There's obviously a major power imbalance on the recruiting scene, and likely will be no matter what. However, expanding the playoff will at least nudge the scale away from the typical few teams that get the majority of top recruits. More coaches will be able to honestly say that with a great season, they can make a run to the playoffs.

And a couple of counter-arguments from comments I've seen here:

1. "Less meaningful regular season". I guess this depends how you look at it. Sure, the same ol' power teams can now get away with a loss or two and have nothing to fear in making the playoffs. I don't think this changes all that much from what already occurs with a 4-team system. Instead, it adds the dynamic of those midfield teams battling for a spot by either stealing a conference championship (any B1G West team) or building a quality resume. If you're anywhere in the top 20 with 2 weeks to go, you have a shot at the playoffs.

2. "Blowouts, same teams will win anyways". Sure, you might be right for the vast majority of years. The few times an upset of a top 2 team happens will make it worth it. Again, an expanded system adds value to those midfield teams. If the Gophers snuck in as a 12 seed, I guarantee most of us would be on here dreaming about our path to a title, no matter how improbable. Isn't that what being a fan is all about?
 



Some guy said:
The whole season is. That’s no different than a conference title game or a regular season game.
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I think the difference is that by the time these playoff games roll around, the athletes will already have done enough "auditioning" for the NFL. And sure, like someone else said, no one has opted out of a CFP game yet. But I could counter that by saying that if you're top 4, you *should* go into the game with the mentality that you can win. But if you're a stud player on a G5 team that snuck in and you know you're going to get annihilated by the #5 team in the first game, why bother risking your draft stock? Just shake your teammates' hands and wish them well.
 

fair said:
A few reasons why I'm a big fan of the proposed 12-team playoff:

1. Schools hosting first-round games. I think this speaks for itself. Apart from bringing an awesome atmosphere to 4 campuses, imagine some of the scenarios. 9-seed Florida has to play at 8-seed Minnesota (replace with any northern team you want) in December/January? We've always liked talking about how SEC teams would never want to play in the cold, now we'll be able to see it.

2. Selection controversy. This will exist no matter the number of teams included. However, those left out will hardly have a leg to stand on, and the debate will be far less. If you couldn't make a 12-team field, how on earth would you have a chance to beat the best in the country?

3. Recruiting. There's obviously a major power imbalance on the recruiting scene, and likely will be no matter what. However, expanding the playoff will at least nudge the scale away from the typical few teams that get the majority of top recruits. More coaches will be able to honestly say that with a great season, they can make a run to the playoffs.

And a couple of counter-arguments from comments I've seen here:

1. "Less meaningful regular season". I guess this depends how you look at it. Sure, the same ol' power teams can now get away with a loss or two and have nothing to fear in making the playoffs. I don't think this changes all that much from what already occurs with a 4-team system. Instead, it adds the dynamic of those midfield teams battling for a spot by either stealing a conference championship (any B1G West team) or building a quality resume. If you're anywhere in the top 20 with 2 weeks to go, you have a shot at the playoffs.

2. "Blowouts, same teams will win anyways". Sure, you might be right for the vast majority of years. The few times an upset of a top 2 team happens will make it worth it. Again, an expanded system adds value to those midfield teams. If the Gophers snuck in as a 12 seed, I guarantee most of us would be on here dreaming about our path to a title, no matter how improbable. Isn't that what being a fan is all about?
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Great post.

Would say your point #1 is another argument for why it may not end up being on-campus for the first round. Indeed, southern teams just shut down in the cold. They don't want that. Some old school/diehard type CFB fans might love a cold/snowy game ... but it also usually makes for a boring game, which doesn't help TV ratings with casual fans.

There are still some pretty decent bowl games outside the NY6, so I just wonder if they try to incorporate four more bowls, prehaps one out west, for the first round, perhaps a week+ before NYE/NYD for the quarter-finals (2nd round).
 


My hope, is that they move the 12 team field from 6 conference champion auto bids to 8.

more auto bids and fewer at large bids incentivizes smaller conferences and makes the regular season more meaningful.
More at larges makes regular season less meaningful
 



Some guy said:
more auto bids and fewer at large bids incentivizes smaller conferences and makes the regular season more meaningful.
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TV does not want, and will not pay huge dollars for, 3 G5 conference champions in a 12 team bracket.

End of story.
 

From the CBS link:

This feasibility study by conference commissioners will include details and discussions on topics such as when and where games would be played. It's expected to be delivered later this summer. The September meeting will include both university presidents and conference commissioners.
 




I like 8, 5 automatic bids and 3 at large, schools like Cincinnati and Notre Dame would be at large bids. This would keep conference championships an the important part of the process.
 



TruthSeeker said:
They shouldn't. There's more money if the open up bidding.
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That's what they're worried about. That somehow the SEC will help ESPN lock it up without opening the bidding. Not sure why myself.
 
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Lot of interesting horse trading.

There are only two bedrock things:

1) not expanding is leaving money on the table, for everyone involved

2) the SEC needs 12 teams in the bracket, with 16 members and a lot of high-ego programs "mouths to feed"


Big Ten says it wants P5 autos, is to help out its Alliance colleagues PAC and ACC that legit need them. Big Ten probably doesn't need it, nearly as much. Also helps Big XII, which is in the same camp as PAC and ACC in likely needing the auto.

SEC doesn't need the auto, at all. Their champ is all but guaranteed in every year, regardless.


It's very possible that expanding in this contract (through 2025 season) is dead, because it requires all 11 votes to be unanimous. Any single conf (or Notre Dame) can sink it, for any reason.

AAC commish is "vigorously opposed" to P5 autos.


But then for the new contract, it doesn't have to be unanimous.

So it would seem, in this article, that the SEC is trying to align itself with the G5, to secure those votes, by saying it doesn't want P5 autos and just wants the top ranked conf champions.


But that sub-committee put that recommendation out there before SEC expanded with Texas and OU. I think that pissed some of the G5 off more than anything, and now some are thinking maybe to try to limit the playoff expansion to 8, which screws over the SEC's expansion.



TL;DR - lot of ins, lot of outs
 

from ESPN:

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby says expanding the College Football Playoff as soon as the 2024 season is "in some jeopardy" if an agreement on a new format cannot be reached soon.

Speaking Saturday to reporters before the Big 12 championship game between No. 5 Oklahoma State and No. 9 Baylor, Bowlsby said expansion talks have slowed to the point where the chances of implementing a new format before the current 12-year agreement ends after the 2025 season are waning.

The CFP management committee, made up of 10 conference commissioners and Notre Dame's athletic director, met early this week and in Dallas and still could not reach consensus on a a proposal to expand the playoff from four to 12 teams.

without reprinting the whole article, the sticking point seems to come down to the automatic qualifiers.
some conferences, including the B1G, want all 5 P5 Conf champs to automatically qualify and the highest-rated G5 champ - then six at-large teams.
but other conferences want a model where the 6 highest-rated conf champs qualify, meaning that a P5 conf champ might not qualify if there were two higher-rated teams among the G5 conf champs.
 

I've always viewed an eight team playoff as the best approach. There are five power conferences and that ensures each one will be able to send their top contender. It doesn't necessarily have to be the conference champion, as upsets can happen, imagine one of the great Clemson teams losing to another ACC team over the last decade.

Instead, it could be a highest ranked team type of thing, where conferences championships mean more, and nine times out of 10, the conference champion would likely be the better team. Meaning that five slots would most likely be filled by the five power five champions. Then it can get rounded out with a few other teams.

Maybe those that missed out on the conference championship game, think about that 2015 Ohio State team that missed out despite having Elliott and Bosa. Those types of teams, plus a great Group of 5 squad, could round out the rest.

I'd be fine with 12, too, but a playoff that has all the P5 champions plus a few of the other elite teams in an eight team format works for me.

I understand it would add another round of games to the schedule for the players, but I think it's doable. Maybe go back to 11 games? That way those that finish with 6 wins can still go to a bowl game, and each regular season game becomes that much more important with a more limited window. If every other level of college football can do it, though, I think the FBS can.

I don't think the regular season would be less meaningful, either. When those players run out of that tunnel, and the band is playing, even if they're not in line for a playoff spot, I'm pretty sure they'll be hyped up.
 

Terrible idea - creates a mini-season, diminishes real season, allows a ringer to win the national championship. But it's all about money.
 

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