Can the Gophers find success in the new Big Ten?

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The Gophers will have success - it just won't be on the football team. The increased revenue from TV contracts, etc will be pumped in to support non-revenue and women's (yes, a huge overlap there) sports. So, we will have elite women's hockey and rowing but likely a football programs that consistently finishes in the bottom half of the conference. I think our team next year will probably be improved over this year in terms of talent - but, I suspect our record will be worse simply due to the step up in schedule. So, you just need to broaden your horizons and take the 'row the boat' mantra and apply it to the women's rowing team.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
it all depends on what constitutes "success?"

with the new schedule - no more B1G West - my best guess is that there will be more volatility.

in a year with a more favorable (or less difficult) schedule, then a 9-win season is certainly possible.
in a year with a less favorable schedule, the Gophers might have to scramble for 6 or 7 wins.
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No way, I have been told in the new big ten the schedules are a gauntlet every year.
short ornery norwegian said:
Note - this assumes 3 very winnable non-conference games. the B1G will be challenging enough. no sense playing stronger P5 opponents in non-conf action.

but winning a B1G title or making the 12-team playoff will be the longest of long shots. for the playoff, that would likely require the Gophers to finish 3rd in the overall conference standings with a 10-2 record at least in order to be ranked in the top 11 nationally. (assuming G5 team is ranked lower than #12).
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Not sure I agree with this. A 10-2 big ten team is going to be a near lock with the pac 12 and big 12 gutted.
So basically win all the games you should win plus go 1-2 in the games you shouldn’t win and you’re in the playoff.

2025
Buffalo - 1
Bowling Green - 2
Cal - 3
Rutgers - 4
Michigan State - 5
Northwestern - 6
Nebraska - 7
Purdue - 8

Go 2-2 against
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon
Ohio state


I am not saying I predict that but that’s not a ridiculous thing to think could happen.
 

Some guy said:
No way, I have been told in the new big ten the schedules are a gauntlet every year.

Not sure I agree with this. A 10-2 big ten team is going to be a near lock with the pac 12 and big 12 gutted.
So basically win all the games you should win plus go 1-2 in the games you shouldn’t win and you’re in the playoff.

2025
Buffalo - 1
Bowling Green - 2
Cal - 3
Rutgers - 4
Michigan State - 5
Northwestern - 6
Nebraska - 7
Purdue - 8

Go 2-2 against
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon
Ohio state


I am not saying I predict that but that’s not a ridiculous thing to think could happen.
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This schedule with losses to Oregon and OSU and I think it would be a question to say we’re a lock but we’d absolutely be around the discussion/bubble. The highest G5 gets in so would’ve bumped one. I would also envision premium ooc games are now gone to try get to that ten win threshold you’re mentioning. All that said, certainly will be possible some years
 

upnorthkid said:
This schedule with losses to Oregon and OSU and I think it would be a question to say we’re a lock but we’d absolutely be around the discussion/bubble. The highest G5 gets in so would’ve bumped one. I would also envision premium ooc games are now gone to try get to that ten win threshold you’re mentioning. All that said, certainly will be possible some years
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It’ll be interesting for sure. 10 wins feels like a lock to me, but I don’t really know how scheduling will play into it. There might be years with 25 10 win teams I suppose since no one plays each other anymore
 

csom_1991 said:
The increased revenue from TV contracts, etc will be pumped in to support non-revenue and women's (yes, a huge overlap there) sports.
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Genuinely wondering: what do those programs currently lack right now that they will gain by giving more money to the athletic department?

The AD can only -- right now, at least -- spend more money on coaches and facilities.


The two biggest revenue sports for women at the U are basketball and volleyball, which are the two most standardized and homogenized across the country. A gym is a gym is a gym, no matter where you are. Game play is the same no matter where you are. Training for these sports is the same no matter where you are. A player from anywhere in the country can go across the country anywhere, just looking for a roster spot and playing time.

Hockey is what it is. Extremely niche, with even North Dakota shutting their program down. Doubt it makes enough revenue here to be considered a revenue sport.

Softball is another sport where we can be highly competitive, though it is not a revenue sport. No idea about soccer.
 



Some guy said:
There might be years with 25 10 win teams I suppose since no one plays each other anymore
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💡

What are your projected standings for 2025? What does 10-2 actually get us, even in the conference? 5th place?
 

short ornery norwegian said:
it all depends on what constitutes "success?"

with the new schedule - no more B1G West - my best guess is that there will be more volatility.

in a year with a more favorable (or less difficult) schedule, then a 9-win season is certainly possible.
in a year with a less favorable schedule, the Gophers might have to scramble for 6 or 7 wins.

Note - this assumes 3 very winnable non-conference games. the B1G will be challenging enough. no sense playing stronger P5 opponents in non-conf action.

but winning a B1G title or making the 12-team playoff will be the longest of long shots. for the playoff, that would likely require the Gophers to finish 3rd in the overall conference standings with a 10-2 record at least in order to be ranked in the top 11 nationally. (assuming G5 team is ranked lower than #12).
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Good point on the non-conference schedule. The Gophs might need to go back to Mason-era non-conference schedules of G5 and FCS teams with the occasional bad FBS team. If Michigan and Georgia can do that, so can Minnesota.
 




But you're able to talk about the Gophers "should be beating teams X,Y,Z".

Use the same principles that allowed you to arrive at those judgements and apply them to the entire Big Ten 2025 schedule. Should be 18 * 9 / 2 = 81 and you've already done 9 of them.
 

Some guy said:
It’ll be interesting for sure. 10 wins feels like a lock to me, but I don’t really know how scheduling will play into it. There might be years with 25 10 win teams I suppose since no one plays each other anymore
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Schedules are going to be much more unbalanced for a few years until the conferences resettle. For example, the same year we have that schedule, Wisconsin’s has Michigan, OSU, Oregon and Washington on it vs USC has a cake walk with really only Oregon and Michigan on it (rest is ILL NE PUR IOWA MICH ST NW UCLA)
 


It absolutely all comes down to how much NIL money is raised. This is by far the most important factor in the future success of any college FB team. Good start for 2024 for retaining our best players, getting a decent recruiting class and landing what appears to be an upgrade at QB. But we need more IMPACT players to compete at a higher level from the transfer portal and that ALL comes from NIL $$!
 



Five for fighting said:
It absolutely all comes down to how much NIL money is raised. This is by far the most important factor in the future success of any college FB team.
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Hopefully not. I hope with some of the major changes coming, that we'll look back 10 years from now and say "remember that short lived crazy NIL time?? Glad NIL largely no longer matters".
 

MplsGopher said:
But you're able to talk about the Gophers "should be beating teams X,Y,Z".

Use the same principles that allowed you to arrive at those judgements and apply them to the entire Big Ten 2025 schedule. Should be 18 * 9 / 2 = 81 and you've already done 9 of them.
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Lol
 

I'm not concerned about whether we *can* find success. I think the answer is plainly 'yes.' I'm far more interested in what the new model for the program will look like. Going back to Mason (perhaps further, this is just my living memory), the football program has been positioned as a developmental program (with the notable Brewster blip). Will that continue to be the case? If not, does that require a system/coaching change?

While we fixate on players like Bucky Irving and Beanie Bishop leaving the program, the reality is that the school and the program have a lot to offer and we should expect to be able to attract impact transfer talent on an annual basis regardless of whether we have a top 40 NIL fund. We should aspire to have a top 40 NIL fund as well, but the new B1G guarantees our program the opportunity to play for a spot in the playoff every year with multiple losses.

We used to go into every season hoping the Wisconsin game was to determine the B1G West. I don't see any reason we can't adjust that to hoping it's an elimination game for the playoff. Now, if the B1G would just schedule it as the last game of the season every year.
 

hungan1 said:
Do they to tweak their schemes and figure out to get the talent they need to succeed? They are up against teams with deep NIL pockets like Nebraska.

IMHO, the current Gophers Football model works well for them in the Big Ten West. Not so much in the new conference alignment.
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How much NIL does Nebraska have compared to Minnesota?

The answer is......nobody knows. It is all just speculation.

This NIL thing has been posted into reality. It starts with a couple of posters making the claim all the other schools are loaded and we are the Little Sisters of the Poor. Pretty soon, it gets parroted as truth, like it came from a financial audit by the IRS.

Stop the incessant hand wringing of will we or won't we find success in the new B1G. The threat bias has distorted reality so badly for some people that it begs the question of should we even field a team? 😁
 

MplsGopher said:
When you combine total coaching salaries and NIL, these are programs that probably average outspending the Gophers 3-4x in football.

Opposite of a level playing field.

Biggest reason why college football sucks .... if your team is a team like the Gophers.
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This is an example of a distorted threat bias.

"Probably" gets glossed over and the message people hear is "Programs are outspending the Gophers 3-4x in football."

A little bit later a thread is started "How can the Gophers compete in the new B1G if they are being outspent 3-4x?"
 

First, define success. My definition(s) are as follows:

1) Being consistently competitive with our rivals Iowa and Wisconsin.

2) Being in contention most seasons for a decent bowl game (and going to Detroit falls short of that).

3) Being highly ranked nationally (Top 20-ish) once every five-seven years or so.

Yes, I believe the Gophers can be successful within those parameters.
 

Having to wait 5-7 years just for a decent season, is tough.

Lot of people who really came into Gopher fandom with the 2019 season are going to fall off by then.
 

MplsGopher said:
Having to wait 5-7 years just for a decent season, is tough.

Lot of people who really came into Gopher fandom with the 2019 season are going to fall off by then.
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Again, definitions are crucial.

What is your definition of a decent season?

The Gophers have finished 9-4 twice since 2019. I consider 9-4 a decent season — maybe even better than decent. I consider finishing 11-2 and #10 in the nation in 2019 an outstanding season.

If the fans you describe as coming on board in 2019 are disappointed in anything less than a 2019-style finish, then I'd say they're probably not long for Gopher fandom anyway, and they are certainly not being realistic about how college football works.
 

Someone noted earlier that the our new West Coast slingers will have more challenges with them playing here in the "East" in November.

Sorry, for all intents and purposes those teams will be West of the Rockies in November. Don't think that will change other than the trip to Indy Dome where the weather is nice all the time.

As for the OP's point, time will only tell. Catch some lightning in a bottle and the ceiling any given year can be pretty high. Probably from now on though there is a ceiling. Reality bites.
 

MplsGopher said:
Hopefully not. I hope with some of the major changes coming, that we'll look back 10 years from now and say "remember that short lived crazy NIL time?? Glad NIL largely no longer matters".
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100 percent agree but my feeling is that it is here to stay. I think there is a stronger chance that there will be adjustments made to the transfer portal which if tightened could help mitigate NIL dollars to a certain extent.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Good point on the non-conference schedule. The Gophs might need to go back to Mason-era non-conference schedules of G5 and FCS teams with the occasional bad FBS team. If Michigan and Georgia can do that, so can Minnesota.
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Like next year.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Yes, the Gophs can have success in the new BG10. That doesn't mean they'll be knocking off the likes of Ohio State or Michigan in the standings anytime soon if those programs keep the pipeline going, but the Gophs can have at least 2019 success again with a little luck. They absolutely do need a decent passing attack to complement the running game and defense to get back to that level.

My prediction is that none of the new PAC teams sniff the top of the standings after slogging it out in the BG10 schedule. The best PAC program might be the fourth best program in the new BG10.
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I’m with you on the new PAC teams except Oregon. They beat Ohio State badly just a couple years ago, recruit really well and have tons of money for NIL from Phil Knight. They might be second to Ohio State on average.

None of the others scare me in their current forms. USC and UCLA have recruiting potential in their area, but have not done much in recent history and Washington hasn’t either except this year with what I think is the best QB in college football, Michael Penix. Their coach is looking better than he is for the same reason Tom Allen did at Indiana when Penix was there and uninjured.
 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
I’m with you on the new PAC teams except Oregon. They beat Ohio State badly just a couple years ago, recruit really well and have tons of money for NIL from Phil Knight. They might be second to Ohio State on average.

None of the others scare me in their current forms. USC and UCLA have recruiting potential in their area, but have not done much in recent history and Washington hasn’t either except this year with what I think is the best QB in college football, Michael Penix. Their coach is looking better than he is for the same reason Tom Allen did at Indiana when Penix was there and uninjured.
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I don't have confidence in the single whale-donor schools like Oregon. It's not sustainable. Oregon has no natural advantages to most BG10 schools without octogenarian Knight in the picture.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I don't have confidence in the single whale-donor schools like Oregon. It's not sustainable. Oregon has no natural advantages to most BG10 schools without octogenarian Knight in the picture.
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That's a really interesting point, especially the part about Knight's age.
 

Be competent in passing about 40% of the time, though each game will have its own strategy. PJ will run it 70 times if it will win THAT game. The B18 will have to restore some kind of divisions or lose fan interest. An 18-team league is absurd.
 

With competent qb play, I think next season should resemble the past 5, for te most part solid winning years, with occasional hiccup(2023). The scheduel will be different but I dot think UCLA orUSC are particularly frightening. Washington will be in and out of the mix for a top 3 spot, Oregon potentially could be a perennial championship power.
Seems like the teams that have joined the Big Ten since the traditional 10 have not performed to their previous status, for the most part. 3 of the shakiest teams so far have won bowl games, so maybe the conference is a little shortchanged around here.
I guess we’ll see how it goes next year, right, until then we are all just pi**ing Into the breeze.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I don't have confidence in the single whale-donor schools like Oregon. It's not sustainable. Oregon has no natural advantages to most BG10 schools without octogenarian Knight in the picture.
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Since 1990 the Ducks are 16-9 vs the current Big 10 teams. Also, Oregon's athletic facilities are ranked the best in the country by 247 Sports. Here's just a sample, this is Hayward Field, the track and field facility. Under Hayward Field it is amazing, go to hayward.uoregon.edu to get a real feel for Hayward.

And there's more to come with a new 170,000 sq ft indoor football facility in the works

hayward field.jpg
 
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