Can Minnesota Win Another National Championship?

[hungan1]

The top expectation to have for Minnesota football that is reasonable, in my opinion, is 2015 Iowa/2016 Wisconsin/2017 Wisconsin type seasons. Anything beyond that is unreasonable, again IMO.

Why? Here is my pessimist answer: to get to or be at the very, very tip top of the country, the truly elite level, requires the truly elite, best of the best of the best players in the country. And there just aren't very many of those guys that come up each year. And the ones that do come up get automatically gobbled up by the elite, mega-programs. Sure, a fair share of those guys bust. And of course, you can develop elite level talent from players who started at a lower level than that.

But my main point is that there are very few of the types of players you need to get over that very last hump -- ie, Wisc not being able to beat Ohio St in the end, this year -- and schools like ours just have little chance at them.

And should you stumble upon a coach and/or a new method of doing something, a way that hasn't been done before (think, perhaps, lifting weights in the 1960's/70's, or nutrition programs in the 1980's/90's, etc.), well the word will quickly get out and the mega-programs will simply start doing for themselves whatever new thing you came up with. Or will just hire your coach away. IE, you won't be able to maintain any type of special edge for very long.

Using 247Sports metrics -

How 247Sports evaluates ...

Each recruit we evaluate is assigned a numerical rating as well as a star rating. Ratings are determined by our recruiting analysts after countless hours of personal observations, film evaluation, and input from our network of scouts.

Players are first grouped qualitatively with a star rating, then given a numerical rating based on their future potential, and finally ranked according to these numerical ratings.

110 - 101 = Franchise Player. One of the best players to come along in years, if not decades. Odds of having a player in this category every year is slim. This prospect has "can’t miss" talent.

100 - 98 = Five-star prospect. One of the top 30 players in the nation. This player has excellent pro-potential and should emerge as one of the best in the country before the end of his career. There will be 32 prospects ranked in this range in every football class to mirror the first round of the NFL Draft.

97 - 90 = Four-star prospect. One of the top 300 players in the nation. This prospect will be an impact-player for his college team. He is an All-American candidate who is projected to play professionally.

89 - 80 = Three-star prospect. One of the top 10% players in the nation. This player will develop into a reliable starter for his college team and is among the best players in his region of the country. Many three-stars have significant pro potential.

79 - below = Two-star prospect. This player makes up the bulk of Division I rosters. He may have little pro-potential, but is likely to become a role player for his respective school.

Here is a rehash of the 2015, 2016, and 2017 B1G East & West Talent Roster with the star player rankings for each team:





You can see how talent rich the B1G East is when compared to the B1G West.

However, if you compiled a combine list surprsingly there are B1G West teams that over performed based on their roster talent levels.

 

[dpodoll68]

Since the BCS started the only schools to play for the title that weren't traditional helmet schools were TN (though they can be argued to be a helmet school), Va Tech (kind of a step below helmet school but they're in one of the most talent rich areas of the country and had maybe the best CFB player in the past 20 years in Vick), Oregon (only been used as a marketing tool for Nike for the past 20 years) and Clemson even though they can be considered a helmet school too by some. So basically you need to either be a helmet school or a team that is also one of the most talented teams in the country over a 4-5 year period like Clemson, Va Tech, Oregon and TN were at the times of their title game appearances. None of the recently solid programs have made it. No Michigan States, Stanfords, Baylors, aTms, KSUs, etc have made it despite having some nice runs. So no, I doubt we ever even get to a title game to be honest. A playoff game in the 4 team format is extremely unlikely even if we turn it up a few notches

Man, you're obsessed with Vick. Maybe the best CFB player in the last 20 years? He didn't even win a Heisman.

 

[oak_street1981]

The Championships of the 30s and 40s were sort of interesting to me, since I am not sure what Minnesota was doing that other schools were not doing. The Southern Black player explains the Warmath era.

For me the fact that Ga Tech, Colorado, and Washington won National Championships in the last 25 or so years gives me some hope. I know that Oregon is the exception, but I am not sure what any of those three programs mentioned had over Minnesota, other than hiring the right coach at the right time.

Unfortunately since the 90's things have changed. Ohio State looked like an NFL team on defense tonight, and Michigan is not going to get worse under Harbaugh. Penn State has risen from the dead.

If PJ Fleck ever wins a Big Ten Championship game, a fancy statue is not enough. Maybe the U can buy him a fancy house on Lake Minnetonka so he can get out of Edina. (joke) For the record, if I had a pile of money I'd have a boat and house on Minnetonka or the St. Croix or live right by the river downtown in a 5K SF penthouse condo.

 

[oak_street1981]

After seeing the Oregon "dance line" up close at the Embassy Suites hotel in El Paso in 2003, I am not sure how our U of M dance line could ever have won a National Championship. (or seeing the USC Song Girls on TV tonight) OK I know probably apples and oranges.

Having seen many a National Championship dancing show at the TCF end zone, I do think our heavy legged Gopher women need to start studying form the Pac 12 playbook, as we are 40 years behind.

 

[oleboy41]

Man, you're obsessed with Vick. Maybe the best CFB player in the last 20 years? He didn't even win a Heisman.

I'm obsessed with Vick because I made a comment about him? Those are the words of a crazy person. And the Heisman means absolutely nothing. Jason White won the Heisman over Fitz and nobody outside of Oklahoma remembers a thing about him. Mark Ingram won it and wasn't even the best RB on his team. Derrick Henry won it despite nobody believing he was even one of the 3 best RBs in the country. Suh was the best player in the country by far yet had no shot. Don't come for me with those nonsense statements

 

[MissouriGopher]

I don't see why not. Wisconsin got close to a shot this year. Iowa was close a few years ago. Michigan State was in the playoffs. Washington was in the playoffs last year. I expect us to be able to recruit talent at their level. It's a matter of coaching and development, which I think Coach Fleck and co bring to the table.

I wouldn't say it's likely but it's certainly possible. Like almost every team we just need the roster to come together at the right time and get a little luck along the way.

 

[dpodoll68]

I'm obsessed with Vick because I made a comment about him? Those are the words of a crazy person. And the Heisman means absolutely nothing. Jason White won the Heisman over Fitz and nobody outside of Oklahoma remembers a thing about him. Mark Ingram won it and wasn't even the best RB on his team. Derrick Henry won it despite nobody believing he was even one of the 3 best RBs in the country. Suh was the best player in the country by far yet had no shot. Don't come for me with those nonsense statements

It wasn't just this comment. You've made many comments about him before, including attempting to argue (with a straight face apparently) that he was the best player in Virginia Tech history over Bruce Smith.

It's weird to fanboy so randomly on Vick on a Gophers fan board, including bringing him up for some reason in a thread about Minnesota's hopes of winning a national title in the future.

 

[Goldmember]

Let’s just get at least 6 wins next year so we can avoid threads like this during the Bowl season.

 

[rugger14]

Why? Here is my pessimist answer: to get to or be at the very, very tip top of the country, the truly elite level, requires the truly elite, best of the best of the best players in the country. And there just aren't very many of those guys that come up each year. And the ones that do come up get automatically gobbled up by the elite, mega-programs. Sure, a fair share of those guys bust. And of course, you can develop elite level talent from players who started at a lower level than that.

But my main point is that there are very few of the types of players you need to get over that very last hump -- ie, Wisc not being able to beat Ohio St in the end, this year -- and schools like ours just have little chance at them.

BINGO. The top ten teams in the recruiting rankings snatch up over 50% of the 4* and almost all the 5* players. There are only 300 of these guys out there each year and that leaves everyone else scrambling to get a few 4* players and the best 3* players they can get.

What does it take to become a truly elite school if you aren't one now? What is it about these schools that makes them able to weather a downturn for a few years and get back on top. FSU, PSU, Auburn, etc... come to mind.

Sent from my LG-H820 using Tapatalk

 

[hungan1]

BINGO. The top ten teams in the recruiting rankings snatch up over 50% of the 4* and almost all the 5* players. There are only 300 of these guys out there each year and that leaves everyone else scrambling to get a few 4* players and the best 3* players they can get.

What does it take to become a truly elite school if you aren't one now? What is it about these schools that makes them able to weather a downturn for a few years and get back on top. FSU, PSU, Auburn, etc... come to mind.

Sent from my LG-H820 using Tapatalk

A lot of it has to do with location, location, location.

 

[wdgold]

Can Minnesota win another national championship title?

Can PJ Fleck transform Minnesota Football and win a national title?

It is quite possible.

But, the odds are enormous, and I would not bet the farm on it until I see how far he can take this team. Maybe we will have answers in 2021. The focus is to first win consistently. Then, win the B1G West title followed by the B1G championship title. Maybe then... who knows????

Let's look at the historical perspective:

With the shifting sands of historical events - birth of the sport, WWII, desegregation, technological revolution, innovations in the game like the introduction of the forward pass, scholarship limits, NCAA minimum eligibility requirements, etc... all influenced and shape the game. Population increase and changing demographics with population shifts to the midwest, south and west all influenced where football champions were crowned - wherever talent were or wherever it can be accessed.

Bill Connelly SB Nation (Feb. 29, 2016) has a very good article on the history of college football by every decade: Ranking the 10 best college football programs of each decade.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ahoma-michigan

Football championship history began with dominance of Ivy League schools in the game's inception in the 1800s. Then, soon followed by the rise of the Rust Belt, and WWI & WWII. Football dynasties come and go - Princeton, Yale, Minnesota, Notre Dame, etc,... Then come the rise of the power schools in the modern era - Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Miami, LSU, Florida, Florida State, Alabama. That is 148 years of football history.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/

These two charts summarize the teams with the most football champions all time (1869-2015), and in the Poll Era (1936-2015):

View attachment 5317

View attachment 5318

Today, the super football schools like Alabama dominate. But, history proves that there are schools that came out of nowhere and win singular championships in spite of the dominant powers: Chicago 1905, Penn 1908, California 1920, Stanford 1926, TCU 1938, Texas A&M 1939, Maryland 1953, Iowa 1958, Syracuse 1959, Ole Miss 1960, Arkansas 1964, Georgia 1980 (with Herschel Walker), BYU 1984, Colorado 1990, and Washington 1991. It is quite possible that a school out of the blue can win a national championship again.

Back to our question: Can PJ Fleck resurrect the national championship aspirations in Minnesota?

PJ Fleck has to be a master magician to pull off a stunt for the ages. He has to have the horses to do it. The sands of time again and again, and the shifting of the tides will etch out new chapters in college football history. Maybe Minnesota will be another new shiny pebble.

Don't bet the farm on another championship for Minnesota YET. Let's see some body of work first.

Yeh anything is possible LOL

 

[hungan1]

Yeh anything is possible LOL

Bear in mind that in Minny, hope springs eternal.

 

[WindyCityGopher]

Can we legitimately contend for the B1G West title first before we talk about national championships? Personally, with division play and a conference championship game against the multiple powers living in the East making winning even a conference title exceedingly difficult, I would drop to my knees in thanksgiving if the Gophers went to the Rose Bowl before I die.

 

[MplsGopher]

BINGO. The top ten teams in the recruiting rankings snatch up over 50% of the 4* and almost all the 5* players. There are only 300 of these guys out there each year and that leaves everyone else scrambling to get a few 4* players and the best 3* players they can get.

What does it take to become a truly elite school if you aren't one now? What is it about these schools that makes them able to weather a downturn for a few years and get back on top. FSU, PSU, Auburn, etc... come to mind.

As Hungan said, location helps FL St and Auburn. They'll always be a top choice among southeastern/deep south blue chip recruits.

But for both of those, as well as Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan and a few other programs, it's really just the concept of "old money". Momentum of domination. It took something special, decades ago, to first start it. You can look back at the history of these programs and find a decade when they weren't anything special. Granted, that era might be when teams traveled by railroad to games ... but it all started from some place. The mega-programs that get high 80's, 90's, even 100's of thousands of fans per game, have built up that momentum over decades. And I would argue that it is tapped out, now. IE, there is no more room for a new mega-program. The programs already there have the game rigged, in a sense, and will never let a new mega-program emerge.

Again, a pessimist viewpoint. Anything is technically possible.


Another decent comparison for us might be a program like TCU. They consistently pull off 10 or more win seasons, even in the Big 12 now. They get 60's thousands of fans per game (I believe). Minnesota could try to aspire to that. They have a great coach and good boosters, who want to spend money to win. But they'll never be what Texas and TA&M are.

 

[MplsGopher]

You can see how talent rich the B1G East is when compared to the B1G West.

However, if you compiled a combine list surprsingly there are B1G West teams that over performed based on their roster talent levels.

Combine participants doesn't do anything for me, if the team doesn't win.

If, hypothetically speaking, Fleck's top end potential is 8 wins a season, but 4-5 guys getting combine invites each year .... not sure if that's an acceptable level of team success to keep extending him. Great to see guys get a chance at the next level, sure.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

As Hungan said, location helps FL St and Auburn. They'll always be a top choice among southeastern/deep south blue chip recruits.

But for both of those, as well as Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan and a few other programs, it's really just the concept of "old money". Momentum of domination. It took something special, decades ago, to first start it. You can look back at the history of these programs and find a decade when they weren't anything special. Granted, that era might be when teams traveled by railroad to games ... but it all started from some place. The mega-programs that get high 80's, 90's, even 100's of thousands of fans per game, have built up that momentum over decades. And I would argue that it is tapped out, now. IE, there is no more room for a new mega-program. The programs already there have the game rigged, in a sense, and will never let a new mega-program emerge.

Again, a pessimist viewpoint. Anything is technically possible.


Another decent comparison for us might be a program like TCU. They consistently pull off 10 or more win seasons, even in the Big 12 now. They get 60's thousands of fans per game (I believe). Minnesota could try to aspire to that. They have a great coach and good boosters, who want to spend money to win. But they'll never be what Texas and TA&M are.

TCU is a better program. Maybe not richer, but better. They’ve (TX) been in a drought worse than USC and their star has faded and I hope it snuffs out. Some would say TX is currently a joke, particularly with a child like Herman running the show.

 

[MplsGopher]

Texas and Texas A&M are the top two athletic depts in the country, by revenue.

Sorry, but when you pull in that much money ... it’s only a matter of time. Money, especially old money, is the ultimate king.


Sure TCU is better in the field, probably the last two or three seasons. But they don’t have anywhere near the draw or clout of the two mega Texas programs. Is what it is.

 

[oleboy41]

It wasn't just this comment. You've made many comments about him before, including attempting to argue (with a straight face apparently) that he was the best player in Virginia Tech history over Bruce Smith.

It's weird to fanboy so randomly on Vick on a Gophers fan board, including bringing him up for some reason in a thread about Minnesota's hopes of winning a national title in the future.

you're a weirdo. Just feel free to no longer comment on anything I say. The fact that you remember some conversation about Vick from who knows how long ago and then claim its some type of obsession says all I need to know about you. Welcome to my ignore list

 

[dpodoll68]

you're a weirdo. Just feel free to no longer comment on anything I say. The fact that you remember some conversation about Vick from who knows how long ago and then claim its some type of obsession says all I need to know about you. Welcome to my ignore list

I have an exceptional memory. The conversation wasn't that long ago, either.

I will comment on whatever I please. Deal with it. If you want to cry and put me on your ignore list, go right ahead. I will still comment on your terrible opinions.

I hope for your sake that your opinions in real life are better than they are on here, because your takes here are almost universally terrible.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Texas and Texas A&M are the top two athletic depts in the country, by revenue.

Sorry, but when you pull in that much money ... it’s only a matter of time. Money, especially old money, is the ultimate king.


Sure TCU is better in the field, probably the last two or three seasons. But they don’t have anywhere near the draw or clout of the two mega Texas programs. Is what it is.

Texas hasn’t been relevant in a long time. Sure they could be again and probably will be but they’re mediocre to bad.

 

[Gopherguy0723]

you're a weirdo. Just feel free to no longer comment on anything I say. The fact that you remember some conversation about Vick from who knows how long ago and then claim its some type of obsession says all I need to know about you. Welcome to my ignore list

He was an abused child.

 

[HoustonTXGopher]

Texas and Texas A&M are the top two athletic depts in the country, by revenue.

Sorry, but when you pull in that much money ... it’s only a matter of time. Money, especially old money, is the ultimate king.


Sure TCU is better in the field, probably the last two or three seasons. But they don’t have anywhere near the draw or clout of the two mega Texas programs. Is what it is.

Remind me again when the last time the Aggies were a contender? Texas has won one championship (2005) in the last 50 years. Money has not equalled championships for these schools.

 

[dpodoll68]

He was an abused child.

How is this comment in any way appropriate? You don't know a f*cking thing about me or my parents.

 

[dpodoll68]

Uh-oh, Dolly's blood sugar is low again. You need to switch to eating a bag of double stuffs instead of original Oreos to raise your blood sugar. I think your body might be building a tolerance.

Your waistline is too far gone to save at this point.

Yes, fat jokes are super hilarious. You're just so funny. I wish I could be you.

 

[TruthSeeker]

How is this comment in any way appropriate? You don't know a f*cking thing about me or my parents.

Look, Snowflake can't handle it!

 

[dpodoll68]

Look, Snowflake can't handle it!

Say whatever you want about me. What kind of person brings family members into it?

 

[Gopherguy0723]

How is this comment in any way appropriate? You don't know a f*cking thing about me or my parents.

Read better. You are making inferences. The fact that you inferred what you did goes to your state of mind. You aren't as smart as you think you are. Seek help immediately.

Also, watch Top Gun. PE's avatar has a particlarly on point discussion with his best friend at the bar.

 

[KillmeNow]

Can Minnesota win a National Title in football???

Absolutely!!!


What do we need that we do not, right now, have, at least as far as we know for sure?

3 things, 1. Great coaching, 2. An incredible QB, 3. Mountains of Money.

What Wisconsin and Iowa and Michigan St proved, and what Minnesota ALMOST achieved with Mason and Kill, is that decent recruiting and player development and good health can produce a winning team. But to create an unbeatable team, or a Natl Title winning team, you need the X factors I mentioned above. To win ALL of your games, or enough to win a Natl Title, which coming out of the B1G West probably means ALL of them, you have to beat very good teams with very good coaches, who will devise ways to defend against vanilla offenses, and who will devise ways to attack defenses, as well. This is where the great coaches come in, and the great QB. The coaches need to be able to make adjustments on the fly and to be prepared to change things up, and a great QB will be needed to be able to handle surprises and pressure and make good decisions in a split second.


I think the Iowa's and MSU's and Wisconsin's have not had that incredible QB, and possibly not great coaching? They've had decent QBs, QBs that can win lots of games, just not against the best defenses in the country. And they haven't had good enough coaching to be able to make the adjustments needed to beat the best teams.


As for the Mountains of Money? Minnesota has the ability to produce those Mountains, and in fact has more potential to do so than the likes of Iowa and Wisconsin and MSU. It starts with winning enough games to get to bowl games and winning those bowl games, improving recruiting and finally beating Wisconsin and winning the B1G West. That will get lots of people to jump on the bandwagon, especially since its something that has not happened in most of our lifetimes. And then the superstar QB needs to be added to the mix, in order to beat the B1G East team we play in the Conf Championship game. And with how well OSU, PSU & Michigan are doing, any B1G West school that can win the B1G Title, will have a legitimate chance to win the Natl title. And even if UMn didn't win on its first trip, unless the QB graduates that season or goes pro, it would generate so much interest among a large population of people hungry for something most thought that they would never see.



So in conclusion, I'm hoping Fleck IS the great coach we need, so now all we need is to wait for him to get things going, and then for him to snag that superstar QB. If he does those two things the money will come.



Btw, how is Clemson a Helmet School? I mean, maybe they are, but as recently as 4-5 years ago I don't think anyone would have listed them as such.


IMO, The helmet schools are Mich, OSU, Notre Dame & PSU in the north, UCLA & USC in the West, Miami, Flor & FSU in Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, & Alabama in the south, and I guess Clemson, too. After those 13, maybe Texas A&M, Oregon, Georgia, Auburn & LSU? Teams like Colorado, Washington & Tennessee are programs whose past greatness isn't so far removed, and with the right coach could rise back up. It's possible Clemson would have been among that last group, until they got their current coach, so that shows imo, that all of the programs I've listed, with the right coach, could rise up and have a shot.

All of those programs have the potential resources needed, and just need the right coach and QB.


And I didn't list Minnesota, because they basically gave up their Helmet School status back in the late 60s/early 70s and haven't yet snagged the right coach to bump them back up. They came close with Holtz and Mason wasn't the right guy, but he at least got things moving in the right direction and got people thinking it was possible. I thought Kill might have us moving in the right direction again, but that didn't happen, and now hopefully Fleck is finally the guy?

 

[dpodoll68]

Read better. You are making inferences. The fact that you inferred what you did goes to your state of mind. You aren't as smart as you think you are. Seek help immediately.

Also, watch Top Gun. PE's avatar has a particlarly on point discussion with his best friend at the bar.

What inference could one draw from your statement other than I was abused by my family?

And yes, clearly I'm the one who needs help, since I'm the one making very personal and offensive statements about total strangers on a Gophers-themed message board.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Can Minnesota win a National Title in football???

Absolutely!!!


What do we need that we do not, right now, have, at least as far as we know for sure?

3 things, 1. Great coaching, 2. An incredible QB, 3. Mountains of Money.

What Wisconsin and Iowa and Michigan St proved, and what Minnesota ALMOST achieved with Mason and Kill, is that decent recruiting and player development and good health can produce a winning team. But to create an unbeatable team, or a Natl Title winning team, you need the X factors I mentioned above. To win ALL of your games, or enough to win a Natl Title, which coming out of the B1G West probably means ALL of them, you have to beat very good teams with very good coaches, who will devise ways to defend against vanilla offenses, and who will devise ways to attack defenses, as well. This is where the great coaches come in, and the great QB. The coaches need to be able to make adjustments on the fly and to be prepared to change things up, and a great QB will be needed to be able to handle surprises and pressure and make good decisions in a split second.


I think the Iowa's and MSU's and Wisconsin's have not had that incredible QB, and possibly not great coaching? They've had decent QBs, QBs that can win lots of games, just not against the best defenses in the country. And they haven't had good enough coaching to be able to make the adjustments needed to beat the best teams.


As for the Mountains of Money? Minnesota has the ability to produce those Mountains, and in fact has more potential to do so than the likes of Iowa and Wisconsin and MSU. It starts with winning enough games to get to bowl games and winning those bowl games, improving recruiting and finally beating Wisconsin and winning the B1G West. That will get lots of people to jump on the bandwagon, especially since its something that has not happened in most of our lifetimes. And then the superstar QB needs to be added to the mix, in order to beat the B1G East team we play in the Conf Championship game. And with how well OSU, PSU & Michigan are doing, any B1G West school that can win the B1G Title, will have a legitimate chance to win the Natl title. And even if UMn didn't win on its first trip, unless the QB graduates that season or goes pro, it would generate so much interest among a large population of people hungry for something most thought that they would never see.



So in conclusion, I'm hoping Fleck IS the great coach we need, so now all we need is to wait for him to get things going, and then for him to snag that superstar QB. If he does those two things the money will come.



Btw, how is Clemson a Helmet School? I mean, maybe they are, but as recently as 4-5 years ago I don't think anyone would have listed them as such.


IMO, The helmet schools are Mich, OSU, Notre Dame & PSU in the north, UCLA & USC in the West, Miami, Flor & FSU in Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, & Alabama in the south, and I guess Clemson, too. After those 13, maybe Texas A&M, Oregon, Georgia, Auburn & LSU? Teams like Colorado, Washington & Tennessee are programs whose past greatness isn't so far removed, and with the right coach could rise back up. It's possible Clemson would have been among that last group, until they got their current coach, so that shows imo, that all of the programs I've listed, with the right coach, could rise up and have a shot.

All of those programs have the potential resources needed, and just need the right coach and QB.


And I didn't list Minnesota, because they basically gave up their Helmet School status back in the late 60s/early 70s and haven't yet snagged the right coach to bump them back up. They came close with Holtz and Mason wasn't the right guy, but he at least got things moving in the right direction and got people thinking it was possible. I thought Kill might have us moving in the right direction again, but that didn't happen, and now hopefully Fleck is finally the guy?

We sure can, but it will take a few years. Once Fleck has us winning the West, he will need to upgrade the recruting one more notch. He has the energy for it.