Cal has reason to fear the Gophers

diefirma

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There has been lots of yakkty yak on the various sites about how wonderful Cal is - greatest running back in the world, California speed, a cornerback who's going to shut Decker down, so on and so forth.

Let's look at the other side of the coin however. I think if you are a Cal coach or fan you have some legitimate worries.

Eric Decker is the obvious worry for Cal but any Cal coach watching tape of the Air Force game has to be worried as well about Adam Weber. Weber was 20/29 and had at least three passes that hit receivers in the hands dropped. Moreover when the game was on the line Weber came through. Weber was also very accurate. While our offensive line may not be the greatest it is big and that takes a while for defenses to get around. Unless Cal can blitz effectively Weber could have a great night. Decker, Tow-Arnet, Green have great hands and, we are told, so do Gray and Hayo. Stodimire has great speed and ok hands. Could make for a fun night for Gopher fans.

One other area of concern for Cal has to be our defensive lines. For the past two games we have alternated the first string line and the second string defensive line. They are roughly equal. I think the first string line plays smarter football and doesn't get caught out of position but the second string defensive line seems more explosive to me. It has to worry Cal when they see a defensive tackle, Kirksey, chase down an option quarterback. By the end of the game with Air Force it seemed like our defensive line was clearly in control and Air Force had trouble gaining more than a few yards at a time. It took them almost 4 minutes to drive down the field and they only got a field goal.

Lastly, if you are a Cal coach, you have to figure out how to deal with the Gopher linebackers. Two different linebackers were Big Ten players of the week, one a national player of the week, in a conference noted for big tough linebackers - indeed, one school is known as "Linebacker U" .

I'm not saying we will win the game but I'm a little tired of the Minnesota mind set. This isn't the Wacker or Mason era. We are not the Little Sisters of the Poor. We have a very good quarterback, good receivers and a fast tough defense with good depth on the defensive line. While we may not be able to play with everyone we CAN play with ALMOST everyone. I expect a good tough game Saturday.
 

We are a good team. They still have to beat us. They are on the road.
 

??????? I hope this thread was a joke.......

If Tedford has done *ANY research on Minnesota in the last Season he knows 2 things will lead to Victory.......

#1) SHUT DOWN DECKER - Let's be realistic, Green, Stoudamire, Tow-Arnett, etc, are NO Decker. They shut down Decker, they shut down the Offense completely. Why? Because Decker makes up about 75% of our Offenses production and Weber has yet to show he knows how to win without Decker and I doubt a team of Cal's caliber will be the first he tries it out on (I don't think Purdue is anywhere near Cal's level). Our Offense hasn't been that impressive *WITH* Decker so far, imagine if Cal makes him a non-factor...OUCH.......

#2) PICK ON RYAN COLLADO - No Sherels, they run Play-Action to Collado's side all day, he's proven he's our weakest link at CB. He gets burned all the time and has to guard 10 yards off the ball against fast receivers. With Best at RB and being a primary target I see Collado's side being thrown to all day. We have Sherels back and we at least have a chance.......

I'm trying to stay positive about our "Gruesome To Watch" OFFENSE but I just don't see it yet.......
 

It's on the road for them. Anything can happen, upsets happen almost every week. We get a few breaks and 2 or 3 turnovers and it it ours! Rah!
 

It's on the road for them. Anything can happen, upsets happen almost every week. We get a few breaks and 2 or 3 turnovers and it it ours! Rah!

Our biggest advantage is inconsistent play from Cal's QB, a couple turnovers and if our Offense can tone down on the penalties and keep drives alive.......we have a chance, lol........
 




??????? I hope this thread was a joke.......

If Tedford has done *ANY research on Minnesota in the last Season he knows 2 things will lead to Victory.......

#1) SHUT DOWN DECKER - Let's be realistic, Green, Stoudamire, Tow-Arnett, etc, are NO Decker. They shut down Decker, they shut down the Offense completely. Why? Because Decker makes up about 75% of our Offenses production and Weber has yet to show he knows how to win without Decker and I doubt a team of Cal's caliber will be the first he tries it out on (I don't think Purdue is anywhere near Cal's level). Our Offense hasn't been that impressive *WITH* Decker so far, imagine if Cal makes him a non-factor...OUCH.......

#2) PICK ON RYAN COLLADO - No Sherels, they run Play-Action to Collado's side all day, he's proven he's our weakest link at CB. He gets burned all the time and has to guard 10 yards off the ball against fast receivers. With Best at RB and being a primary target I see Collado's side being thrown to all day. We have Sherels back and we at least have a chance.......

I'm trying to stay positive about our "Gruesome To Watch" OFFENSE but I just don't see it yet.......




Don't you think every other team we have played has said "shut down decker and we'll shut down their offense"? Have any of them done it yet? NO. The only time he's been "shut down" is when he was injured. He is constantly double teamed and sometimes even triple teamed and still makes the catches 90% of the time if not every time. I agree however with Collado. He gets burned even by decent recievers but I would assume that if it is a constant issue in the beginning then they would make the necessary adjustments. The coaching has proved in these last 2 games that they can make the adjustments needed. I would like to think they can do that in this game as well.
 

This is our weeks folks-victory against a top program that puts us on the map. I am channeling this from some unknown source-it came to me and I really believe it will happen. Close game, turnovers and our D make the difference. Offense plays well enough to keep up and the D shuts the door. This game was over before it was even played.
 



This is college football. Top teams go on the road every year and lose games they're favored to win. Thats the beauty of it all. We are a work in progress-thats true. I'm very optimistic about this season and the future of the program, but we definitely have to play a near-flawless game to beat what is likely Tedford's most talented Cal team of his tenure.

Here's what I think needs to happen:
1. Big special teams day: Our offense still needs to prove they can grind out long, productive drives. To overcome that, we need some drives to start in Cal territory. Troy is a weapon in the return game and he must have a big day. Ellestad must be clutch.

2. Play technically perfect: Penalties have been a problem with this team-especially on the line. Looking back on last week, most of these occurred on large, positive gains. Drive-stalling penalties simply cannot happen.

3. Make Best work: Best has a ridiculous per rush average, but he hasn't had a full games work against against a defense with a pulse yet this season. As explosive as he is (see bowl game v. Miami FL), he's not a high rush attempt back. He's going to get his 100 yds- or 150- but we have to make him get it over 25+ carries. Nate and Lee are big boys, they need to be physical up front and stop this from becoming an arm-tackle track meet.

4. Creativity on offense: We have the playmakers! We have some serious speed on the perimeter (Troy, Decker, Carpenter, Green) and an very competent backfield. Fisch has taken a very NFL approach to the offense with a deliberate run to setup the pass strategy, but the running attack has failed to put any pressure on opposing defenses. With a roster clearly recruited for the spread, we need a concerted effort to get our playmakers in space. That means exploiting our success in the passing game (our natural strength) to set up the run--getting those safeties out of the box and creating a numbers advantage up front.
 

I wouldn't count on Best getting 25+ carries

3. Make Best work: Best has a ridiculous per rush average, but he hasn't had a full games work against against a defense with a pulse yet this season. As explosive as he is (see bowl game v. Miami FL), he's not a high rush attempt back. He's going to get his 100 yds- or 150- but we have to make him get it over 25+ carries. Nate and Lee are big boys, they need to be physical up front and stop this from becoming an arm-tackle track meet.

In his career, he's only had more than 20 carries in a game once. Through 2 games he only has 27 carries while Cal's third string tailback has 20. He had 20 carries against Miami last year in the Emerald Bowl (good for 186 yards and 2 TDs) and I think Miami's D had a pulse. Best certainly makes the most of his carries and he'll also catch passes out of the backfield. While your linebackers have played well, I don't think they've gone up against anyone with even close to the speed and moves of Best.
Also, don't forget about Shane Vereen, Cal's 2nd string tailback who could start for a lot of teams. Vereen actually has more TDs than Best this year (5 v. 4).
Here's to an injury-free game (and a Cal win!).
 

Couple thoughts on this game.

If the Gophers are going to win the defense must show they can get penetration into the backfield. The Gophers have been playing a big defensive front line on D and maybe that is a good thing against the run. It just seems very slow and against Cal I think we need to create problems in the backfield. The LBers for the Gophers have been good so far but they need to play the games of their career in this game because they will find themselves in space against two very good RBs. The Gophers need to force the Bears into passing downs and make Riley throw the ball.

On offense the Gophers cant make mistakes. Turnovers and penalties will kill this team. The Gophers need to put some drives together and put touchdowns on the board which has been a problem so far.

I totally agree with the point of special teams we need to get some big returns in the kicking and punting game.
 

Don't you think every other team we have played has said "shut down decker and we'll shut down their offense"? Have any of them done it yet? NO. The only time he's been "shut down" is when he was injured. He is constantly double teamed and sometimes even triple teamed and still makes the catches 90% of the time if not every time. I agree however with Collado. He gets burned even by decent recievers but I would assume that if it is a constant issue in the beginning then they would make the necessary adjustments. The coaching has proved in these last 2 games that they can make the adjustments needed. I would like to think they can do that in this game as well.

Ohio State's Defense last year shut down Decker and I don't think the likes of Montana State, BGSU, NIU, Illinois, FAU, Indiana or Purdue are anything "Brag Worthy." Look what happened when we played a good Defense like Ohio State. We didn't look to impressive against Northwestern either. I would compare Cal's Defense more to Ohio State then to anyone we beat last year.

I think Brewster should go to Decker early to keep the focus on him and that should open up opportunities for other Playmakers we have on Offense. I'd love to see Stoudamire or Green have a breakout day.......
 



There has been lots of yakkty yak on the various sites about how wonderful Cal is - greatest running back in the world, California speed, a cornerback who's going to shut Decker down, so on and so forth.

Let's look at the other side of the coin however. I think if you are a Cal coach or fan you have some legitimate worries.

Eric Decker is the obvious worry for Cal but any Cal coach watching tape of the Air Force game has to be worried as well about Adam Weber. Weber was 20/29 and had at least three passes that hit receivers in the hands dropped. Moreover when the game was on the line Weber came through. Weber was also very accurate. While our offensive line may not be the greatest it is big and that takes a while for defenses to get around. Unless Cal can blitz effectively Weber could have a great night. Decker, Tow-Arnet, Green have great hands and, we are told, so do Gray and Hayo. Stodimire has great speed and ok hands. Could make for a fun night for Gopher fans.

One other area of concern for Cal has to be our defensive lines. For the past two games we have alternated the first string line and the second string defensive line. They are roughly equal. I think the first string line plays smarter football and doesn't get caught out of position but the second string defensive line seems more explosive to me. It has to worry Cal when they see a defensive tackle, Kirksey, chase down an option quarterback. By the end of the game with Air Force it seemed like our defensive line was clearly in control and Air Force had trouble gaining more than a few yards at a time. It took them almost 4 minutes to drive down the field and they only got a field goal.

Lastly, if you are a Cal coach, you have to figure out how to deal with the Gopher linebackers. Two different linebackers were Big Ten players of the week, one a national player of the week, in a conference noted for big tough linebackers - indeed, one school is known as "Linebacker U" .

I'm not saying we will win the game but I'm a little tired of the Minnesota mind set. This isn't the Wacker or Mason era. We are not the Little Sisters of the Poor. We have a very good quarterback, good receivers and a fast tough defense with good depth on the defensive line. While we may not be able to play with everyone we CAN play with ALMOST everyone. I expect a good tough game Saturday.

Y'all have a great board and have been very gracious hosts. We all hate boorish a-holes who invade other boards to thump their chests and claim their school will slaughter you, but saying Cal "fears" Minnesota is more than a little over the top.

Your underlying premise is that AFA's CBs and OL are comparable to Cal's. They're not and we have several Tedford-era data points against the Zoomies. Tedford's worst team (2002) lost 23-21 in Berkeley. Tedford's second worst team (2007) beat them 42-36 in Fort Worth. Tedford's best team (2004) crushed them 56-14 at altitude in Colorado Springs. That's 21, 42 and 56 points against a defense who the Gophs could only put up 20 points (7 off a turnover) at home.

Weber's line (20-29, O TDs, 1 sack) is nice for an experienced senior. Compare it to Riley's line as a redshirt freshman in the second extended PT of his career: 16-19, 3 TDs, O sacks, rallying his team from 0-21 to win. Justin Forsett ran for 144 yards and 2 TDs.

Minnesota's a one-dimensional passing team which can't run the ball (112 yards vs SU, 108 vs AFA). Bob Gregory's defenses occassionally struggle against balanced offenses, but cruise against one-dimensional offenses. Cal got crushed in Knoxville in 2006 and nobody knew what to expect vs Minnesota the next week. Cal shut down the Gopher running game and won easily 42-17. I know UM's better under Brewster, but the 2006 team was a parody of the cliche Big Ten team: really big and really slow. Did think Spaeth was a nice player.

The Gophers are way too dependent on Decker (181 of UM's 248 yards vs SU and 113 of UM's 219 yards vs AFA). Cal will scheme around Decker and make somebody else beat them in the passing game or on the ground. Cal has 6 potential NFL players on defense (Thompson, Jordan, Alualu, Hagan, D Hill and Owusu) and they're all DL or CBs which directly matches up against UM's lone offensive strength. Maryland's QB was sacked 6 times (5 in the first half) mainly without blitzing, so SQT and Hagan can play Minny's WRs straight up.

Cal's had 7 consecutive 1000 yard rushers. Lynch and Arrington (and presumedly Best) were all high draft picks. Echemandu and Forsett are hardly stars in the NFL. Joe Igber is an exceptional...civil engineer (earned BS and MS degrees from the top-ranked civil engineering department in the country). Cal has a solid OL and Best, Vereen, Deboskie and Isi will get their yards.

Brewster compared Cal this week to Ohio State, not Indiana or Purdue. No doubt UM's LBs are good, but their sideline to sideline speed is questionable as is their ability to cover Vereen and Best in the passing game.

Riley has 5 TDs, no INTs, and is completing roughly 66% of his passes this year. He had one TD last week because Cal didn't need to throw the ball (6 rushing TDs by 4 TBs). Jones, Boateng and Tucker are solid WRs. Vereen and Best can both catch the ball coming out of the backfield.

This is a big game for Cal. Tedford wants the travel monkey off his back. Jahvid blew chunks the last time he was on national TV for a 9 AM PST kickoff. Riley wants to prove the first two weeks weren't flukes.

Tedford stresses playing the game the right way. He took an early knee vs Southern Miss when JJ Arrington was flirting with 300 yards and it cost the Bears in the polls. He was livid when a backup QB defied him and allowed a fourth string walk-on TB to get a TD at the end of a Holiday Bowl. Andy Ludwig was the the OC at 13-0 Utah last year and he knows that Cal needs to play for keeps, hence the TD with 20 seconds left last week for Cal's third string TB. Cal knows they have to at least cover to stay in the top ten, and I wouldn't bet against them.

5-0 against the Big Ten under Tedford, 2-0 on the road
Tedford, Best, Riley want to avenge last year's Maryland debacle
Defense came out lethargic last week against EWU in the first half and needs to make a statement this week
Team's leaving early to alleviate the travel excuse

Minnesota's a good team in a major conference and Tedford and his coaches and players respect them. If Cal comes out flat they can be beat. Cal can win without Best or Thompson, but an injury to Riley would be devasting. He doesn't need to carry the team, but his back ups have virtually no experience (maybe 20 passes between the two of them). 38-21 Golden Bears. Sorry if I've offended, but I thought the "fear" comment was absurd.
 

Very well thought out post, Oski. I agree 100%.
 

Cal is Darkhorse National Champ Contender

Believe it or not they have comparable talent to SC. Can the Gopher win? Sure, but highly improbable. They would need to be plus 3 in turnovers. Cal 38-17.
 

Oski, you've been a very gracious visitor, and your posts have been sound and level-headed, so I won't be too hard on you. But what does the point total of the '02, '04, and '07 Cal-AFA games have to do with anything? Other than the '07 team, those players are all long gone. If you want to play that game, I can counter with the fact that our early "aughts" teams would've put up huge points on this AFA defense too. But they would've also given up a ton. At any rate, it is all meaningless. The only thing that matters is what the players who are on the field have done this year and in the past. Even going back to '07 is quite a stretch, but it is at least somewhat relevant.
 

Oski Wow Wow--I don't care to get in a back and forth but I will correct a few things and make some general comments. Weber is a junior, not a senior. I don't necessarily agree about the sideline to sideline comment about our LB's...the speed of SLB Simoni Lawrence (4.45 40) compares very well with anyone you'll find in college football, Campbell at MLB is probably a 4.7 guys which is pretty average MLB, and Triplett at WLB is a 4.6-4.7 40 type of guy which is also pretty average for an OLB. Our first LB off the bench is a Keanon Cooper and he runs a 4.43 40. In passing situations they will pull Campbell and use Lawrence, Cooper, and Triplett which makes for a very fast linebacking corps.

As it pertains to the game the key matchup will be our DL against your OL. DT appears to be the strength of our defense and we have depth at the position. If the DT's are able to get penetration it will allow the LB's to run free and assuming they make the tackles it should prevent Best from torching our D. If that happens it puts the ball in Riley's hands with a base coverage package which I am comfortable with (assuming Sherels plays at CB). If the DT's don't get penetration we will have to pull a safety into the box to try to slow Best and Riley is good enough to throw against that coverage package and it could be an ugly day. Given Riley's mixed history--particularly on the road @ Arizona & USC last year--he could go either way and Best averaged about 60 less yards per game on the road last year which is eye popping.

I agree with you, Decker has been too high of a percentage of our offense. The thing is that neither Syracuse or Air Force were able to take him away so as long as he is open we're going to throw the ball to him and not apologize for it. Syd'Quan is a much better CB than we faced with Syracuse or AFA but Decker still had success against Vontae Davis (2009 1st round pick) so if you leave Syd'Quan on an island the Gophers will still attack that matchup. The question that needs to be answered is if Cal is forced to bracket Decker with a safety, does Troy Stoudermire, Brandon Green, Nick Tow-Arnett and/or possibly Hayo Carpenter step up and make plays in the passing game and can the OL establish a running game against 7 in the box. Thus far the OL has been inconsistent breaking a hole on one run and then allowing DT penetration on the next. If that doesn't change we are in trouble.

Cal is favored for a reason and they'll probably win but Minnesota certainly has the pieces to create problems for Cal.
 

I think the key will be the first quarter. Cal's DC Gregory had a rep for being very conservative. He has gotten a bit more aggressive in the 3-4 but if Weber has time early to get in a rhythm it would be huge for the gophers. OTOH, if the Bears shut down Weber's first few drives and put a couple quick TD's on the board it could be a very tough day for the gophs.
 

With all due respect to Oski, Tedford has had some meltdowns recently on the road and they come early in the season typically. This from Matt Hayes of the SportingNews:

5. The Cal psyche
Two long September road trips in the past three seasons, two ugly nonconference losses. The common thread: Cal comes unglued early and never recovers.

Can this road game at Minnesota be any different from recent trips to Tennessee in 2006 (35-18 loss) and Maryland in 2008 (35-27)? And frankly, we may as well add a 2004 trip to Southern Miss, where an ugly 26-16 victory cost the Bears the Rose Bowl.

We've already seen that Minnesota plays better in its new on-campus palace instead of the road, and it won't be an easy environment for Cal quarterback Kevin Riley. This game is huge for a Cal team that feels like it can win the Pac-10 but still must play at Oregon on Sept. 26 before USC comes to Berkeley on Oct. 3.

Two wins in the next two weeks will give the Bears the confidence they haven't had since 2004, when a last-second Aaron Rodgers pass was knocked away in the end zone to preserve a USC victory.


No question in my mind that MN will be in this game till the end. It will be exciting for me to watch on ESPN.

Go Gophers! Rah!!
 

Matt Hayes doesn't know his @ss from a hole in the ground

With all due respect to Oski, Tedford has had some meltdowns recently on the road and they come early in the season typically. This from Matt Hayes of the SportingNews:

5. The Cal psyche
Two long September road trips in the past three seasons, two ugly nonconference losses. The common thread: Cal comes unglued early and never recovers.

Can this road game at Minnesota be any different from recent trips to Tennessee in 2006 (35-18 loss) and Maryland in 2008 (35-27)? And frankly, we may as well add a 2004 trip to Southern Miss, where an ugly 26-16 victory cost the Bears the Rose Bowl.

We've already seen that Minnesota plays better in its new on-campus palace instead of the road, and it won't be an easy environment for Cal quarterback Kevin Riley. This game is huge for a Cal team that feels like it can win the Pac-10 but still must play at Oregon on Sept. 26 before USC comes to Berkeley on Oct. 3.

Two wins in the next two weeks will give the Bears the confidence they haven't had since 2004, when a last-second Aaron Rodgers pass was knocked away in the end zone to preserve a USC victory.


No question in my mind that MN will be in this game till the end. It will be exciting for me to watch on ESPN.

Go Gophers! Rah!!


Cal recovered enough at Maryland to make a game out of it. Didn't win, but recovered. Tennessee, #23 at the time they played Cal, won its division in the SEC the year the Vols stomped the Bears at home. Not sure I've heard anybody say that Minnesota is a conference contender this year.

Hayes probably only read Bob Davie's writeup of the Southern Miss game from 5(!) years ago. That was a hard-fought game against an opponent that went on to win its bowl, where Cal lost its best WR and team leader Geoff McArthur to a broken leg, and Tedford declined to run up the score at the end of the game. The win didn't cost the Bears the Rose Bowl; Davie's incessant carping about Cal during the game, and Mack Brown's lobbying afterward cost the Bears the Rose Bowl.

Cal lost the 2004 game to USC when Aaron Rodgers threw to a spot in the end zone where Jonathan Makonnen was supposed to be but wasn't because he slipped while making his cut off the wrong foot. With a minute left to play.

Poor analysis, can't even get his facts straight. The unfortunate thing is that he didn't even have to play fast and loose the way he did; all he had to do was point out that Cal has done poorly on the road, any road, over the last two seasons.

Most national writers don't know enough about specific teams to have their opinions/analysis taken seriously. If he's an actual Pac-10 beat writer for them, he should be ashamed of his writing.
 




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