Caesars Season Win Totals: Minnesota 9

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To be fair, the money lines on 9 wins for Minnesota is: +130 for the under and -150 for the over; implying the expected win total is closer to 8 than 9.

8 wins sounds about right. The schedule is slightly tougher, and we lost some big time talent on both sides of the ball.
 

LesBolstad said:
To be fair, the money lines on 9 wins for Minnesota is: +130 for the under and -150 for the over; implying the expected win total is closer to 8 than 9.

8 wins sounds about right. The schedule is slightly tougher, and we lost some big time talent on both sides of the ball.
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That line implies, if you wrote it right, they’re expecting the over. Bet 150 on over 9 to win 100 and bet 100 on under 9 to win 130.
 

LesBolstad said:
To be fair, the money lines on 9 wins for Minnesota is: +130 for the under and -150 for the over; implying the expected win total is closer to 8 than 9.

8 wins sounds about right. The schedule is slightly tougher, and we lost some big time talent on both sides of the ball.
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UpNorthKid beat me to it. Vegas is believing the total will be over 9. Actually Vegas is just trying to even out the betting on both sides, so no matter the outcome, they win.
 


AtTheLibrary said:
These Nebraska numbers make 0 sense to me? Is it location, recruiting rankings & pre-season media polls??
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Connelly's pre-season sp+ numbers are based on returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. It does not include polling.

You can see his full post here:
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1
He beat the vegas spread at a 58% clip during the first 5 weeks of last season.

SP+ projects the spread on a neutral field. To turn them into a true spread, you just have to add 3 points for home games and remove 3 points for away games.

I assume the number that doesn't make sense to you is Nebraska. I would suggest taking a look at their 2-deep. Much like the Gophers, they return their entire offensive line and most of their offensive production, but they lose their defensive front and their best play-maker. They will be a good team next year, but they face a tough schedule.

They are, in almost every way, a mirror image of the Gophers with marginally worse coaching. We play them on Black Friday in a pretty symbolic game. They will certainly be up for it.
 
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hello-world said:
Connelly's pre-season sp+ numbers are based on returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. It does not include polling.

You can see his full post here:
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1
He beat the vegas spread at a 58% clip during the first 5 weeks of last season.

SP+ projects the spread on a neutral field. To turn them into a true spread, you just have to add 3 points for home games and remove 3 points for away games.

I assume the number that doesn't make sense to you is Nebraska. I would suggest taking a look at their 2-deep. Much like the Gophers, they return their entire offensive line and most of their offensive production, but they lose their defensive front and their best play-maker. They will be a good team next year, but they face a tough schedule.

They are, in almost every way, a mirror image of the Gophers with marginally worse coaching. We play them on Black Friday in a pretty symbolic game. They will certainly be up for it.
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And what has appeared to be a substantially worse QB, which can make all the difference
 

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