Caesars Season Win Totals: Minnesota 9

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AtTheLibrary

AtTheLibrary

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Caesar’s has released their win totals for the 2020 season. Below are the highlights for the B1G:

Minnesota: 9

Illinois: 5
Indiana: 7.5
Iowa: 7
Maryland: 3.5
Michigan: 9
Michigan St: 4.5
Nebraska: 6.5
Northwestern: 5.5
Ohio St: 11
Penn St: 9.5
Purdue: 5.5
Rutgers: 2.5
Wisconsin: 9.5

EDIT: These are Regular Season Win Totals

 
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Is this regular season only, or does it include bowl games?

Only Ohio St, Penn St, and Wisky higher. It appears that Vegas likes us.
 





FredCoxRocks said:
I feel Vegas always knows more than the Paul Finebaums’ of the world.
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If we're talking about the odds you actually can put real money on (and reasonable amounts) ... then yeah now they've got an incentive to be right. (there are some folks who put odds out there that apparently nobody can bet on so whatever to those)

Also the Pauls of the world are there to generate clicks / views / listeners, not inform. Paul isn't putting any money where is mouth is most of the time ;)
 

I also like our chances to win 9 games. Our offense will be really good and our running game will be much better. Our defense will probably be better than expected. When we had injuries on defense last year, the next man up, did pretty well.
 

9 wins would probably mean they lost to Michigan, Iowa & Wisconsin.

I’m hoping they can take 2/3 of those for 11 wins again
 

AtTheLibrary said:
9 wins would probably mean they lost to Michigan, Iowa & Wisconsin.

I’m hoping they can take 2/3 of those for 11 wins again
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The Iowa and Michigan games are here at home at TCF. That should help our odds.

Even if the Gophers go only 1-2 in those three games, that's a 10-2 regular season... unless someone can find another obvious loss somewhere else on the schedule.

fbschedules.com

2021 Minnesota Football Schedule | FBSchedules.com

View the 2021 Minnesota Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Golden Gophers football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.
fbschedules.com
 



RememberMurray said:
The Iowa and Michigan games are here at home at TCF. That should help our odds.

Even if the Gophers go only 1-2 in those three games, that's a 10-2 regular season... unless someone can find another obvious loss somewhere else on the schedule.

fbschedules.com

2021 Minnesota Football Schedule | FBSchedules.com

View the 2021 Minnesota Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Golden Gophers football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.
fbschedules.com
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I'm going to go full Debbie Downer here and note that up until 2019.... I don't think we've ever gone a season without at least 1 Derp game where we dropped one that we "shouldn't".

Granted I don't blame anyone for wanting to predict that not happening...

End:
215px-Debbie_Downer.PNG
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I'm going to go full Debbie Downer here and note that up until 2019.... I don't think we've ever gone a season without at least 1 Derp game where we dropped one that we "shouldn't".

Granted I don't blame anyone for wanting to predict that not happening...

End:
215px-Debbie_Downer.PNG
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Well, I guess you and I could each put our money on the under or the over, based on our gut feeling.

Hmmmm... do I dare?

Then again, will there even be a 2020 season?

Sorry, Slab... I guess I'd better watch myself, or I'll be the Debbie Downer! :mad:
 

I'd feel really great about hammering the over on 8.5. Even with homer-bias, 9 feels like it has a high chance of being a push. I suppose that means they have done a good job setting the line.
 

SixBySix said:
I'd feel really great about hammering the over on 8.5. Even with homer-bias, 9 feels like it has a high chance of being a push. I suppose that means they have done a good job setting the line.
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Yup, they nailed this line lol, no thank you
 



SixBySix said:
I'd feel really great about hammering the over on 8.5. Even with homer-bias, 9 feels like it has a high chance of being a push. I suppose that means they have done a good job setting the line.
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Agreed.
To get to 10 you either have to bank on beating both Michigan/Iowa at home or going
3-2
@wisconsin
@nebraska
@maryland
@illinois
@michigan state

with no hiccups at home against the other 5

Then again now that I write it down I’m think 11-1.
 

How many games are they predicting are played?
 

Jeshurun said:
How many games are they predicting are played?
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This is an excellent point in the end. Obviously at this point I doubt if anyone knows. I'm hopeful for a good slate of games.
 

With 5 B1G games away, this is a tougher schedule on paper compared to last year. Nine wins is definitely doable, 10 with a good bounce or two, 11 with some really good karma.
 




At this point in time, if the 2020 is played... we'll all be thrilled, no matter the wins and losses.
 



upnorthkid said:
if we play and go 0-12, I will not be thrilled
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If the choices are no college football, or watching the Gophers fail to achieve bowl eligibility with this roster against this schedule, then I would prefer no college football.

My floor / ceiling is 8 / 11 this year and my line is at 9. I would be surprised by anything outside of that range.

The Gophers should be favored in every game leading up to their trip to Madison next year. That game could decide the division in October.

Minnesota has a real chance to upset Michigan at home, and Nebraska looks like a legitimate trap game to end the year. I can't wait for this season.

If Fleck is looking for that Western Michigan-like run, then this is a golden opportunity. Their OOC schedule isn't too tough, Minnesota should be favored against Maryland and MSU, and they draw their toughest crossover at home. Should be a lot of fun.
 
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I can’t remember if I picked 9 wins or 10 wins going into last year but the reason I did is because I think Fleck has the program in a spot where by the end of 2018 I believe the program has learned how to win the games they should win.

From the second half of the home Purdue game, I no longer have had doubts they’d beat teams they’re better than.
They have a chance against teams better than them.
They can still play tough games against teams fairly equal to them.


if this principle Holds true.
Florida Atlantic - W
Tennnessee Tech - W
Iowa - toss up
BYU - W
@ Maryland - W (this game should be an easy win if we are a good team. Even if we lose to Iowa we will know after maryland I’d this is a 9-11 win season or a 6-7 win season...we’d know earlier than that losing to a non Iowa)
@ Wisconsin - toss up (I think wisconsin won’t be as good offensively next year though their defense probably still makes them west favorites)
Michigan - W (they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up)
@ Illinois - W
@ Michigan State - W (I don’t think MSU is the same post dantonio)
Purdue - W
Northwestern - W
@ Nebraska - W


even good teams lose a game they should win every few years...see 2019 Wisconsin @ Illinois. So 10-0-2. Bad break and it’s a 9 win team. Bad break and a slip up it’s an 8 win team. Team takes a huge step back on defense and all of a sudden Purdue, northwestern, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan State, BYU are all toss ups
 

Some guy said:
I can’t remember if I picked 9 wins or 10 wins going into last year but the reason I did is because I think Fleck has the program in a spot where by the end of 2018 I believe the program has learned how to win the games they should win.

From the second half of the home Purdue game, I no longer have had doubts they’d beat teams they’re better than.
They have a chance against teams better than them.
They can still play tough games against teams fairly equal to them.


if this principle Holds true.
Florida Atlantic - W
Tennnessee Tech - W
Iowa - toss up
BYU - W
@ Maryland - W (this game should be an easy win if we are a good team. Even if we lose to Iowa we will know after maryland I’d this is a 9-11 win season or a 6-7 win season...we’d know earlier than that losing to a non Iowa)
@ Wisconsin - toss up (I think wisconsin won’t be as good offensively next year though their defense probably still makes them west favorites)
Michigan - W (they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up)
@ Illinois - W
@ Michigan State - W (I don’t think MSU is the same post dantonio)
Purdue - W
Northwestern - W
@ Nebraska - W


even good teams lose a game they should win every few years...see 2019 Wisconsin @ Illinois. So 10-0-2. Bad break and it’s a 9 win team. Bad break and a slip up it’s an 8 win team. Team takes a huge step back on defense and all of a sudden Purdue, northwestern, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan State, BYU are all toss ups
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Great analysis.

I think you hit on a key point: Which teams on this schedule are clearly better than the Gophers?

We might approach that question by choosing the toughest 2020 opponent. I suspect most of us would pick Wisconsin, Michigan or Iowa.

Then the question becomes, "Which of these teams is/are clearly better than Minnesota?"

I don't see any of the 3 as being clearly better.
 

Especially not Michigan. Michigan is going to be rebuilding offensively a bit this year.
 

Some guy said:
I can’t remember if I picked 9 wins or 10 wins going into last year but the reason I did is because I think Fleck has the program in a spot where by the end of 2018 I believe the program has learned how to win the games they should win.

From the second half of the home Purdue game, I no longer have had doubts they’d beat teams they’re better than.
They have a chance against teams better than them.
They can still play tough games against teams fairly equal to them.


if this principle Holds true.
Florida Atlantic - W
Tennnessee Tech - W
Iowa - toss up
BYU - W
@ Maryland - W (this game should be an easy win if we are a good team. Even if we lose to Iowa we will know after maryland I’d this is a 9-11 win season or a 6-7 win season...we’d know earlier than that losing to a non Iowa)
@ Wisconsin - toss up (I think wisconsin won’t be as good offensively next year though their defense probably still makes them west favorites)
Michigan - W (they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up)
@ Illinois - W
@ Michigan State - W (I don’t think MSU is the same post dantonio)
Purdue - W
Northwestern - W
@ Nebraska - W


even good teams lose a game they should win every few years...see 2019 Wisconsin @ Illinois. So 10-0-2. Bad break and it’s a 9 win team. Bad break and a slip up it’s an 8 win team. Team takes a huge step back on defense and all of a sudden Purdue, northwestern, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan State, BYU are all toss ups
Click to expand...
With Iowa line at 7 wins, and its schedule, I would definitely put that game in the Gophs win column.
 

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Implied lines from SP+ pre-season rankings are included above.

Connelly will have us favored in every game except for Wisconsin and Nebraska.

I also included win implied *linear* win probabilities (which means that they can go above 100%; I would take those as directional estimates).

As of right now it looks like:
- Heavy favorites against FAU, TTU, BYU, Maryland, Illinois, Purdue, and Northwestern
- One score favorites against Iowa and Michigan State
- Tossups against Michigan and Nebraska
- Heavy dogs against Wisconsin
 

Wisconsin's schedule leading up to our game with them, with opponents' 2019 record:

Indiana (8-5)

Southern Illinois (7-5)

Appalachian State (13-1)

@ Michigan (9-4)

Notre Dame (11-2)

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The Badgers will either be battle-tested... or well-tenderized by the time the Gophers arrive in Madison for The Axe Game.
 

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