Building a program with mid-level recruits

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MaroonGopher

MaroonGopher

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What percent of 3 star prospects turn into impact players?

What percent of 4 star prospects turn nito impact players?

What percent of 5 star prospects turn nito impact players?

Answer these questions and you'll understand the risk in relying on 3 star players to carry a program. There is much greater risk in signing recruiting classes consisting mainly of 2/3 star players. People on here, especially the football board, will swear that stars don't matter. Personally, I think those people are just telling themselves that because the Gophers never get the star athletes.

LET THE PERSONAL ATTACKS BEGIN.
 

Wait a minute, 5-stars are usually more talented than 3-stars? Damn, now that you point that out it makes perfect sense. I guess from now on we should get only 5-stars from here on out. Better yet lets get the top 5 players in the country each year. I bet we would be pretty talented then. Wait until other teams get ahold of this information. Pretty soon every team in the country will only be signing 5-stars while 4-star and 3-star players become obsolete.
 

Gopher's opening day roster had 4, 4 star starters. Gopher's recruiting class has 2, 4 star players in it right now for 2011.
 

MaroonGopher said:
What percent of 3 star prospects turn into impact players?

What percent of 4 star prospects turn nito impact players?

What percent of 5 star prospects turn nito impact players?

Answer these questions and you'll understand the risk in relying on 3 star players to carry a program. There is much greater risk in signing recruiting classes consisting mainly of 2/3 star players. People on here, especially the football board, will swear that stars don't matter. Personally, I think those people are just telling themselves that because the Gophers never get the star athletes.

LET THE PERSONAL ATTACKS BEGIN.
Click to expand...

Gophers signed two 4 star prospects in 2008.

Gophers signed one 5 star and two 4 star prospects in 2009. (Mbakwe was 4 star in 2007 HS)

Gophers have signed two 4 star recruits in 2011.

Tubby won NCAA title in 1998 and had #1 ranked team in 2003 with a handful of 4 and 5 star players combined with 2 and 3 star players.
 

GophersOnTheRise said:
Wait a minute, 5-stars are usually more talented than 3-stars? Damn, now that you point that out it makes perfect sense. I guess from now on we should get only 5-stars from here on out. Better yet lets get the top 5 players in the country each year. I bet we would be pretty talented then. Wait until other teams get ahold of this information. Pretty soon every team in the country will only be signing 5-stars while 4-star and 3-star players become obsolete.
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Oh, I forgot to add: BRING ON THE SARCASTIC AND PATRONIZING COMMENTS.
 


Friend Of Tubby said:
Gophers signed two 4 star prospects in 2008.

Gophers signed one 5 star and two 4 star prospects in 2009. (Mbakwe was 4 star in 2007 HS)

Gophers have signed two 4 star recruits in 2011.

Tubby won NCAA title in 1998 and had #1 ranked team in 2003 with a handful of 4 and 5 star players combined with 2 and 3 star players.
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Who is the second 4 star player for 2011? Also, Tubby has sorely missed on 4 star players, I'd hate to see what happens when he misses on 3 star players...
 

Of course stars matter and those on the football board who say differently are just trying to garner some enthusiasm for a new coach.

Tubby is bringing in two top 100 guys this year and brought in Devoe, Rodney, Royce as top 100 guys previously. He's also brought in guys just outside the top 100 in Mo Walker, Austin Hollins, Colton Iverson, and Ralph Sampson III.

Tubby's brought in 3 questionable recruits: Chip, Oto, and Mav
Tubby brought in 1 project big man who had a Stanford offer: Elliott

I will agree that it looks like we could bring in another questionable recruit or two this Spring which is certainly reason for concern.
 

I would expect a coach with a national championship under his belt to easily pull in higher rated talent, which he has in past recruiting classes. The current class is 2 top 100 players. Maybe you should just become a Kentucky, Ohio State, Duke, or N. Carolina fan so you dont have to stress over star ratings every year.
 

I completely agree that higher ranked players typically have more success, but just to show that it isn't mandatory here is are the first team All-Americans (depending on where you look):

1. Nolan Smith - 4-star
2. Jimmer Fredette - 3-star
3. JaJuan Johnson - 4-star
4. Derrick Williams - 3-star
5. Jared Sullinger - 5-star

That list has more 3-stars than 5-stars. Rankings definitely do matter to an extent, but you don't need a bunch of 5-stars in order to be a great team. We have 2 4-stars committed right now so I think we're doing okay. It would be nice to get more 5-stars but that's easier said than done. Some people may disagree, but I would rather have a team composed of 4-year 3-stars and 4-stars mixed with one or two 5-stars than a team full of one-and-done 5-stars. Better yet I'd even take a team with no 5-stars and had mostly all 4-stars (as long as a couple are top 50 talent) and a couple experienced 3-star role players who all stay at least 3 years than a team filled with 5-star one-and-dones that lack experience and chemistry.
 



MaroonGopher said:
What percent of 3 star prospects turn into impact players?

What percent of 4 star prospects turn nito impact players?

What percent of 5 star prospects turn nito impact players?

Answer these questions and you'll understand the risk in relying on 3 star players to carry a program. There is much greater risk in signing recruiting classes consisting mainly of 2/3 star players. People on here, especially the football board, will swear that stars don't matter. Personally, I think those people are just telling themselves that because the Gophers never get the star athletes.

LET THE PERSONAL ATTACKS BEGIN.
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Your comment is more apt for the football board. Or Wisconsin's basketball board.

The Gophers have gotten a lot of star recruits in basketball for as long as I can remember. Tubby has brought in 3 very good recruiting classes (multiple 4/5* players in each class), going on 4 with Hollins and Coleman this year. The problem in bb hasn't been the recruiting, it's been keeping the players healthy and on campus.
 

WanderingGopher said:
Your comment is more apt for the football board. Or Wisconsin's basketball board.

The Gophers have gotten a lot of star recruits in basketball for as long as I can remember. Tubby has brought in 3 very good recruiting classes (multiple 4/5* players in each class), going on 4 with Hollins and Coleman this year. The problem in bb hasn't been the recruiting, it's been keeping the players healthy and on campus.
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Wisconsin basketball has had plenty of star talent. Not sure what you mean by that.
 





EG#9 said:
Of course stars matter and those on the football board who say differently are just trying to garner some enthusiasm for a new coach.

Tubby is bringing in two top 100 guys this year and brought in Devoe, Rodney, Royce as top 100 guys previously. He's also brought in guys just outside the top 100 in Mo Walker, Austin Hollins, Colton Iverson, and Ralph Sampson III.

Tubby's brought in 3 questionable recruits: Chip, Oto, and Mav
Tubby brought in 1 project big man who had a Stanford offer: Elliott

I will agree that it looks like we could bring in another questionable recruit or two this Spring which is certainly reason for concern.
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RSIII was consensus Top 75 recruit in 2008.
 

MaroonGopher said:
What percent of 3 star prospects turn into impact players?

What percent of 4 star prospects turn nito impact players?

What percent of 5 star prospects turn nito impact players?

Answer these questions and you'll understand the risk in relying on 3 star players to carry a program. There is much greater risk in signing recruiting classes consisting mainly of 2/3 star players. People on here, especially the football board, will swear that stars don't matter. Personally, I think those people are just telling themselves that because the Gophers never get the star athletes.

LET THE PERSONAL ATTACKS BEGIN.
Click to expand...

Morongopher living up to it's name by yet again posting something idiotic and moronic and WRONG!
 

A big part is what you do with the top 150 players you bring in. RSIII is not an impact player, either is Colt or Rodney, Joseph is gone. I would say MN has missed on most of their 4 star type guys. Trevor is the exception to this...
 


The problem is less recruiting talent and more recruiting the players that can succeed in Tubby's system. When you have an offense that is predicated on getting the ball to the post before anything else, it does you no good to have guards who can't shoot, athletic swingmen, and post players who want to shoot a 20 ft jumper. You need inside guys who can actually score on the block outside of a dunk, guards who can hit a 3 when the ball is kicked out to them, and forwards who can hit a 15-foot jumper.
 


EG#9 said:
Of course stars matter and those on the football board who say differently are just trying to garner some enthusiasm for a new coach.

Tubby is bringing in two top 100 guys this year and brought in Devoe, Rodney, Royce as top 100 guys previously. He's also brought in guys just outside the top 100 in Mo Walker, Austin Hollins, Colton Iverson, and Ralph Sampson III.

Tubby's brought in 3 questionable recruits: Chip, Oto, and Mav
Tubby brought in 1 project big man who had a Stanford offer: Elliott

I will agree that it looks like we could bring in another questionable recruit or two this Spring which is certainly reason for concern.
Click to expand...

I think Tubby is capable of bringing in 3 to 4 star recruits regularly and I think he can make that work as long as he is finding guys that fit his system. Late recruiting is caused by unexpected turnover and that's something he has to find a way to reduce.
 

while the odds aren't as good for impact players with 3 stars, 2 of the the biggest impact players of the last few years Jimmer Fredette and Steph Curry were both 3 stars.

I may be completely off base, but to me it seems recruiting services rate players more on physical skills (size, athleticism, speed, quickness, jumping ability) than intangibles such as poise, craftiness, and pure shooting ability. That is why curry and jimmer went under the radar. Just my 2 cents
 

Goldy in da house said:
while the odds aren't as good for impact players with 3 stars, 2 of the the biggest impact players of the last few years Jimmer Fredette and Steph Curry were both 3 stars.

I may be completely off base, but to me it seems recruiting services rate players more on physical skills (size, athleticism, speed, quickness, jumping ability) than intangibles such as poise, craftiness, and pure shooting ability. That is why curry and jimmer went under the radar. Just my 2 cents
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You have just perfectly summed up the Bo Ryan recruiting strategy- under the radar guys + more highly rated guys who fill the description of pure shooting ability, craftiness and poise. I hate ot bring up the Grinch again, but that's what he does. Those guys are always out there for the coach that can figure out a way to work with them.
 

Gold Vision said:
Gopher's opening day roster had 4, 4 star starters. Gopher's recruiting class has 2, 4 star players in it right now for 2011.
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Friend Of Tubby said:
Hollins and Coleman are 4 star players (ESPN).
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anyone can do what you both did to make your point look better by picking the service that has rated them higher. rivals has both the 2011 recruits as 3 stars. all you did is get the result you wanted.
 

scools12 said:
anyone can do what you both did to make your point look better by picking the service that has rated them higher. rivals has both the 2011 recruits as 3 stars. all you did is get the result you wanted.
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So what's wrong with that? Is calling them 4-stars a lie? Well, is it?
 

Battle for Penn St. was a 3 star. It's not always easy to know who will be good.
 

scools12 said:
anyone can do what you both did to make your point look better by picking the service that has rated them higher. rivals has both the 2011 recruits as 3 stars. all you did is get the result you wanted.
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Again Rivals (the WORST) hasn't updated their ratings since 8/24/2010. Rivals is pathetic. Sorry, Ryan James - NOT YOU but Rivals is terribly lazy.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/recruiting/player/news/_/id/56385/andre-hollins in case Rivals needs help, here's a summary of Hollins' senior year.

Scout has Hollins 4 Star (****) and Coleman 3 Star (***).

Bob Gibbons has Hollins 4 Star and Coleman 3 Star.

Hoopmasters has Hollins 4 Star and Coleman 3 Star.

ESPN has both Hollins and Coleman as 4 Star recruits.

All 4 of those lists HAVE BEEN UPDATED over the winter.
 

bga1 said:
I think Tubby is capable of bringing in 3 to 4 star recruits regularly and I think he can make that work as long as he is finding guys that fit his system. Late recruiting is caused by unexpected turnover and that's something he has to find a way to reduce.
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Right on. Late recruit due to the departures of the last couple years has definetly hurt. You get in too late on big recruits that are still available and end up with summer signings like Mav & Chip to fill the roster. Those guys might turn out to be solid contributors and played better than expected this year, but most kids who are available in the summer are available for a reason.
 

I may be completely off base, but to me it seems recruiting services rate players more on physical skills (size, athleticism, speed, quickness, jumping ability) than intangibles such as poise, craftiness, and pure shooting ability. That is why curry and jimmer went under the radar. Just my 2 cents

I agree with this.
I have also heard over and over again that coaches do not look at stars... ratings... etc... that they look for what they want and need to fit their system. I don't believe that is true. There have been too many real basketball players with those intangibles mentioned that have been missed because coaches feel pressure to get the "stars" players.
 

UOM said:
I may be completely off base, but to me it seems recruiting services rate players more on physical skills (size, athleticism, speed, quickness, jumping ability) than intangibles such as poise, craftiness, and pure shooting ability. That is why curry and jimmer went under the radar. Just my 2 cents

I agree with this.
I have also heard over and over again that coaches do not look at stars... ratings... etc... that they look for what they want and need to fit their system. I don't believe that is true. There have been too many real basketball players with those intangibles mentioned that have been missed because coaches feel pressure to get the "stars" players.
Click to expand...

To add on to my original statement, though, we don't really have any players on our current roster that exhibit the poise, craftiness, and shooting ability I mentioned :(. Blake is the closest thing and he wasn't even recruited by Tubby.
 

I have no problem at all with the premise of the question, in fact I think it is silly to argue the number of stars Tubby has recruited, because most have been fine. Tubby has recruited good players that can win and he has also recruited guys who should not be scholarship players on a BigTen basketball team, which is biting us in the butt big time this year. I think the theory that on a 13 team roster, a team can afford to have "practice only " players, Chip, Mav, is ludicrous.

The other point to make about building a team from 3 star players is that it is totally dependent on the coach evaluating talent correctly that will fit his system. Clem did that really well, Tubby must be able to do it based on his history at Tulsa and Georgia, but that part of his skill set is not as obvious yet, so I guess we'll see. The one thing that does hurt is when you recruit JUCO guys who can't play. They take up a roster spot that a developing three star player could fill. He does not have any choice this year, he needs three addtional guards who can play next year. Andre Hollins will be very good, but he needs at least one more new guard that can play immediately.
 

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