Bubblicious Tuesday: Pitt playing like the pits

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SelectionSunday

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Monday developments? Pitt suffers a critical home loss to T.J. Warren and NC State, dropping the Panthers from the threshold to the true bubblers. Also, Oklahoma State wins and Xavier loses, but both remain on the threshold. Both squads close their regular season vs. opponents that could vault them over the top. ... Ok State plays @ #11 Iowa State, while Xavier will host #4 Villanova.

Lots of significant bubble games tonight.

Bids Accounted For: 52 (32 auto bids, 20 locks)

Bids Available: 16 (6 if we concede bids to thresholders)

On the Threshold (10)
Colorado (30)
George Washington (32)
Saint Joseph's (34)
BYU (35)
Iowa (38)
SMU (40)
Oklahoma State (42) beat Kansas State 77-61
Xavier (44) -- lost 71-62 to Seton Hall
Baylor (45) -- Iowa State, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Arkansas (58)

Truest of the True Bubblers (11)
Oregon (33) -- Arizona State, 10 p.m. (FS1)
Stanford (41)
GOPHERS (46)
Tennessee (47)
Dayton (48)
Cal (50)
Missouri (51)
Pitt (52) -- lost 74-67 to NC State
Nebraska (55)
Providence (56) -- Marquette, 8 p.m. (FS1)
Florida State (57) -- @ Boston College, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)

In the Mix (6)
Boise State (54)
Saint John's (60)
Georgetown (63) -- Creighton, 6 p.m. (FS1)
LSU (66)
Clemson (72) -- Miami-Florida, 7 p.m.
Illinois (74) -- Michigan, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Conference Tournaments Starting Tonight
Atlantic Sun -- 1-bid conference (Florida Gulf Coast the #1 seed).
Horizon -- potential bid-stealer is #49 Green Bay, but Phoenix don't play until Saturday semifinals (Green Bay the #1 seed).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Monday developments? Pitt suffers a critical home loss to T.J. Warren and NC State, dropping the Panthers from the threshold to the true bubblers. Also, Oklahoma State wins and Xavier loses, but both remain on the threshold. Both squads close their regular season vs. opponents that could put them over the top. ... Ok State plays @ #11 Iowa State, while Xavier will host #4 Villanova.

Lots of significant bubble games tonight (see below).

Bids Accounted For: 52 (32 auto bids, 20 locks)

Bids Available: 16 (6 if we concede bids to thresholders)

On the Threshold (10)
Colorado (30)
George Washington (32)
Saint Joseph's (34)
BYU (35)
Iowa (38)
SMU (40)
Oklahoma State (42) beat Kansas State 77-61
Xavier (44) -- lost 71-62 to Seton Hall
Baylor (45) -- Iowa State, 6 p.m. (ESPN2)
Arkansas (58)

Truest of the True Bubblers (11)
Oregon (33) -- Arizona State, 10 p.m. (FS1)
Stanford (41)
GOPHERS (46)
Tennessee (47)
Dayton (48)
Cal (50)
Missouri (51)
Pitt (52) -- lost 74-67 to NC State
Nebraska (55)
Providence (56) -- Marquette, 8 p.m. (FS1)
Florida State (57) -- @ Boston College, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)

In the Mix (6)
Boise State (54)
Saint John's (60)
Georgetown (63) -- Creighton, 6 p.m. (FS1)
LSU (66)
Clemson (72) -- Miami-Florida, 7 p.m.
Illinois (74) -- Michigan, 6 p.m. (ESPN)

Conference Tournaments Starting Tonight
Atlantic Sun -- 1-bid conference.
Horizon -- potential bid-stealer is #49 Green Bay, but the Phoenix don't play until Saturday's semifinals.
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Great work as always SS. Let's see some losses tonight!
 

I look forward to the day that I am far less concerned about the bubble for the Gophers, but in the meantime I check these Bubblicious reports every morning. Thanks for the awesome analysis SS! I love the split between "On the Threshold" and the "Truest of the True Bubblers". It really puts things in great perspective.
 

Golden_Sloth said:
Great work as always SS. Let's see some losses tonight!
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Thanks.

The one caveat I'm throwing in tonight is I hope FSU wins. I really want them to get back in the top 50 so the Gophers have another top-50 win. I'll take my chances if at the very end (Selection Sunday) FSU is right there in the mix with the Gophers. That's how much I think that extra top-50 win could benefit the Gophers. Head-to-head isn't a be all and end all when trying to differentiate bubble teams (i.e Gophers vs. FSU, Gophers vs. Nebraska), but if we're right there with FSU it would carry some weight. Ditto, unfortunately, with Nebraska.
 

Pitt has a very poor resume, 22-8 and not a win worth anything.1-5 vs top 50, 5-8 top 100
 



GuyFawkes said:
Pitt has a very poor resume, 22-8 and not a win worth anything.1-5 vs top 50, 5-8 top 100
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Best win is a neutral-siter vs. a fellow bubbler (Stanford). That's not much to hang your hat on. Only edge they hold over the Gophers (as someone mentioned in another thread) -- albeit a significant edge -- is their 9-3 road/neutral record.
 

Winnipegopher said:
Indiana is not even in the mix?
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If they beat Nebraska on Wednesday they will be. For the most part I exclude anyone outside the top 75. Hoosiers currently #79.

Illinois will drop off the list if they lose at home tonight to Michigan.
 

Go Marquette! Biggest game of the night as far as I'm concerned, as well as Oregon/ASU.
 



jaymil said:
Go Marquette! Biggest game of the night as far as I'm concerned, as well as Oregon/ASU.
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Am more worried about Oregon than Providence at this point. If Oregon sweeps the Arizona schools, the Ducks are gonna' get in.
 


Richard said:
I look forward to the day that I am far less concerned about the bubble for the Gophers, but in the meantime I check these Bubblicious reports every morning. Thanks for the awesome analysis SS! I love the split between "On the Threshold" and the "Truest of the True Bubblers". It really puts things in great perspective.
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+19
 

SelectionSunday said:
Am more worried about Oregon than Providence at this point. If Oregon sweeps the Arizona schools, the Ducks are gonna' get in.
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I see Oregon has won five in a row but beating both az schools is a pretty tall task I would think.
 



station19 said:
I see Oregon has won five in a row but beating both az schools is a pretty tall task I would think.
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It is, yes, but at least they have the opportunity for 2 really good wins, 1 especially. Even a split should help them.

I'd rather the Gophers be playing someone like Michigan State than Penn State this weekend. Beating someone like that would actually help us, instead of the Gophers simply needing to avoid a loss that would take them completely out of the picture.
 

The ledge

SelectionSunday said:
It is, yes, but at least they have the opportunity for 2 really good wins, 1 especially. Even a split should help them.

I'd rather the Gophers be playing someone like Michigan State than Penn State this weekend. Beating someone like that would actually help us, instead of the Gophers simply needing to avoid a loss that would take them completely out of the picture.
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Please, can you talk me off the ledge?
 

Section201 said:
Please, can you talk me off the ledge?
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Wish I could, Section, but as of today I'm not real optimistic 2 wins will be enough (40% chance?), especially if Penn State and then Northwestern/Penn State/Purdue are the two wins that get us to the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. The Gopher resume needs "good" wins (read: something at least in the top 100). We have plenty of wins outside the top 100; don't need any more of those.

The more I look it, it would be in the Gophers' best interests to play and beat Illinois or Indiana (both would be a likely a top-100 win) on play-in Thursday, Indiana more so than Illinois. I think the Gophers would get a little more street cred with the committee if they beat IU in Indianapolis, especially considering the Gophers' stinky 3-9 road/neutral record.

It's all moot if the Gophers don't win Sunday at The Barn. Penn State isn't going to lay down for the Gophers, and there's really not a whole lotta' difference between the two teams.
 

Richard said:
I look forward to the day that I am far less concerned about the bubble for the Gophers, but in the meantime I check these Bubblicious reports every morning. Thanks for the awesome analysis SS! I love the split between "On the Threshold" and the "Truest of the True Bubblers". It really puts things in great perspective.
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Agree, but considering that I thought they would struggle to make the NIT, so I will take it at this point.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Wish I could, Section, but as of today I'm not real optimistic 2 wins will be enough (40% chance?), especially if Penn State and then Northwestern/Penn State/Purdue are the two wins that get us to the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. The Gopher resume needs "good" wins (read: something at least in the top 100). We have plenty of wins outside the top 100; don't need any more of those.

The more I look it, it would be in the Gophers' best interests to play and beat Illinois or Indiana (both would be a likely a top-100 win) on play-in Thursday, Indiana more so than Illinois. I think the Gophers would get a little more street cred with the committee if they beat IU in Indianapolis, especially considering the Gophers' stinky 3-9 road/neutral record.

It's all moot if the Gophers don't win Sunday at The Barn. Penn State isn't going to lay down for the Gophers, and there's really not a whole lotta' difference between the two teams.
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Thanks for the straight talk. I will just linger on the ledge a bit longer :(
 


SelectionSunday said:
Wish I could, Section, but as of today I'm not real optimistic 2 wins will be enough (40% chance?), especially if Penn State and then Northwestern/Penn State/Purdue are the two wins that get us to the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. The Gopher resume needs "good" wins (read: something at least in the top 100). We have plenty of wins outside the top 100; don't need any more of those.

The more I look it, it would be in the Gophers' best interests to play and beat Illinois or Indiana (both would be a likely a top-100 win) on play-in Thursday, Indiana more so than Illinois. I think the Gophers would get a little more street cred with the committee if they beat IU in Indianapolis, especially considering the Gophers' stinky 3-9 road/neutral record.

It's all moot if the Gophers don't win Sunday at The Barn. Penn State isn't going to lay down for the Gophers, and there's really not a whole lotta' difference between the two teams.
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In terms of getting a decent match-up, it almost seems like it would be better for Indiana to pass us and we might get Illinois in the 8-9 game. But I don't see IU winning at Michigan. So the Gophers and IU will likely both end up 8-10 with the Gophers #7 and IU #8.

The next-best scenario is probably for Illinois to lose both. They would then end up 6-12 and most likely tied for the #9-11 seeds with Purdue and either Penn State or NW. Anyone know how that tie-breaker would go? We would essentially want Illinois to finish 2nd of those 3 and get the #10 seed.

Edit: And most likely, 3 straight losses would knock Illinois out of the top 100, defeating the purpose. Ugh.
 

howeda7 said:
The next-best scenario is probably for Illinois to lose both. They would then end up 6-12 and most likely tied for the #9-11 seeds with Purdue and either Penn State or NW. Anyone know how that tie-breaker would go?
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Going by the "most likely" scenarios down the stretch, if Illinois, Penn State, and Purdue tie for 9th at 6-12, Purdue would be #9, Illinois #10, and Penn State (assuming they win @ Northwestern) #11. Very confident Illinois would not drop out of the top 100 with losses to Michigan and Iowa. RPI wouldn't drop all that much.

Now if Illinois, Northwestern (assumes Wildcats beat Penn State, lose @ Purdue), and Purdue end up tied at 6-12, Northwestern would be #9 (by virute of its win over Wisconsin), Purdue #10, and Illinois #11.

Of course, if the final week of the Big Ten regular season is anything like the rest of the season, very little will go as expected.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Thanks.

The one caveat I'm throwing in tonight is I hope FSU wins. I really want them to get back in the top 50 so the Gophers have another top-50 win. I'll take my chances if at the very end (Selection Sunday) FSU is right there in the mix with the Gophers. That's how much I think that extra top-50 win could benefit the Gophers. Head-to-head isn't a be all and end all when trying to differentiate bubble teams (i.e Gophers vs. FSU, Gophers vs. Nebraska), but if we're right there with FSU it would carry some weight. Ditto, unfortunately, with Nebraska.
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You think not having Andre Hollins would contribute to weighing the Nebraska game?
 

bemidjigopher said:
You think not having Andre Hollins would contribute to weighing the Nebraska game?
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I would say yes if after Andre's return the Gophers started playing really good basketball, but that hasn't been the case. We haven't exactly lit it up (3-5, including a home loss to Illinois) since his return. So I guess my answer would be no.
 

Baylor wins vs #16 Iowa state(with eubanks in attendance) and georgetown wins at home against #13 Creighton, guess you can lock those 2 up now
 

GuyFawkes said:
Baylor wins vs #16 Iowa state(with eubanks in attendance) and georgetown wins at home against #13 Creighton, guess you can lock those 2 up now
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I wouldn't think Georgetown is a lock just yet, but them jumping up into the mix certainly doesn't help us.
 

GuyFawkes said:
Baylor wins vs #16 Iowa state(with eubanks in attendance) and georgetown wins at home against #13 Creighton, guess you can lock those 2 up now
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Baylor already has a wing committed for this class and had two 4-star wings in last year's class. I'm guessing he'd see playing time a lot earlier here. Hopefully we can get him on campus for the PSU game.
 

GuyFawkes said:
Baylor wins vs #16 Iowa state(with eubanks in attendance) and georgetown wins at home against #13 Creighton, guess you can lock those 2 up now
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No doubt. If Providence beats Marquette that's 2 nights in a row where fellow bubble teams are winning big games. Not good for MN.
 

Blitzkrieg said:
No doubt. If Providence beats Marquette that's 2 nights in a row where fellow bubble teams are winning big games. Not good for MN.
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It's easy to see why Marquette is having a rough year. Man they do a lot of dumb things on offense. Providence up 7 with 9 min. left.
 

GuyFawkes said:
Baylor wins vs #16 Iowa state(with eubanks in attendance) and georgetown wins at home against #13 Creighton, guess you can lock those 2 up now
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Georgetown is far from a lock. They're now probably on the bubble though.
 

Marquette has given up two 4 point plays in the second half...Are you kidding me?
 

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