Bubblicious Tuesday: BYU locks up a spot; 13 bids now available

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SelectionSunday

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Monday developments?

(1) BYU cements lock status with its OT semifinal win over San Francisco, earning a spot opposite Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament championship. Even though Gonzaga's resume is nothing to write home about (I like BYU's resume better), I'm 100% comfortable saying both teams will be in the tournament no matter what happens in tonight's title game. This is what the Gophers needed. ... no chance for the WCC to get a third bid.

(2) Wofford gives the Gophers a little help by winning the Southern tourney championship. That's now two wins for the Gophers over automatic qualifiers (also Coastal Carolina), and there's a fighting chance for a couple more later this week, #4 seed Montana in the Big Sky and #2 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the Southland. TAMU-CC has a bye to the semis, so it only has to win two games to earn the SLC's auto bid.

AVAILABLE BIDS: 13

Auto Bids/Placeholders (32)
Stony Brook (America East), Cincinnati (American), Virginia (ACC), MERCER (Atlantic Sun), Saint Louis (Atlantic 10), Villanova (Big East), Weber State (Big Sky), COASTAL CAROLINA (Big South), Michigan (Big Ten), Kansas (Big XII), UC-Irvine (Big West), DELAWARE (Colonial), Louisiana Tech (Conference USA), Wright State (Horizon), HARVARD (Ivy), MANHATTAN (MAAC), Western Michigan (MAC), North Carolina Central (MEAC), WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley), San Diego State (Mountain West), Robert Morris (NEC), EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC), Arizona (Pac 12), Boston U (Patriot), Florida (SEC), WOFFORD (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (WCC), Utah Valley (WAC).

Locks (23)
Wisconsin (6), Creighton (7), Duke (8), Syracuse (9), Iowa State (11), VCU (13), New Mexico (16), UMass (17), Kentucky (19), Oklahoma (21), North Carolina (22), Louisville (23), Ohio State (24), Michigan State (25), Oregon (26), UCLA (27), UConn (28), George Washington (29), Memphis (30), BYU (31), Colorado (32), Texas (33), Baylor (34)

The Bubblers (24 battling for 13 spots)
Southern Miss (35)
Arizona State (38)
Dayton (39)
Oklahoma State (40)
Nebraska (41)
Saint Joseph's (42)
Tennessee (43)
Stanford (44)
Pitt (45)
SMU (46)
Kansas State (47)
Xavier (48)
Iowa (49)
GOPHERS (51)
Missouri (52)
Providence (53)
Georgetown (54)
Cal (55)
Florida State (57)
Saint John's (58)
Arkansas (60)
Green Bay (62) -- SEASON COMPLETED
NC State (66)
Illinois (70)

Conference Tournaments Resuming Today
Horizon title game -- potential bid-stealer with Green Bay eliminated (#3 Wright State highest remaining seed).
MEAC 1st round -- 1-bid conference (#1 North Carolina Central highest remaining seed).
NEC title game -- 1-bid conference (#1 Robert Morris highest remaining seed).
Summit title game -- potential bid-stealer if North Dakota State loses (#1 NDSU highest remaining seed).
WCC title game -- both teams will make NCAA tourney (#1 Gonzaga highest remaining seed).

Conference Tournament Starting Today
Conference USA 1st round -- potential bid-stealer if Southern Miss doesn't win it (Louisiana Tech the #1 seed).
SWAC -- 1-bid conference (#2 seed Texas Southern the highest NCAA-eligible seed).

NIT Automatic Bids (7) -- regular-season champs who don't get NCAA at-large bid)
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Davidson (Southern)
Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
Green Bay (Horizon) -- a chance for an at-large bid?
High Point (Big South)
Iona (MAAC)
Vermont (America East)
 

Are we confident that the selection committee is going to be using the exact same RPI rankings as Palm, or might there be some variance? (Unless something has changed in recent years, I thought nobody knew the exact RPI formula used by the NCAA...)


Projecting forward, it seems like it's going to be very, very close for us if we don't beat Wiscy in the quarters. As in, possibly the very last team in or very last team out if they go strictly by RPI. I know they aren't bound strictly to RPI but they've seemed to stick pretty close to it in recent years. With our extenuating circumstances - namely the Hollins injury but also the fact that our Richmond win has been unfairly tainted - I think we at the very least have a good case for not getting jumped by anybody with a lower RPI. Except, perhaps, Arkansas because of the H2H loss.
 

I'm sure there's some variance. I don't get hung up on a team's individual RPI. It's more about using the RPI as a way to lump similar teams together and measure how teams have performed vs. the top 50, top 100, bad losses of 101+, etc.

Hunch is folks here are too hung up on RPI right now simply because the Gophers' is below average relative to most of the other bubble teams. If the tables were turned and the Gophers were in the mid 30's to low 40's, I suspect we'd all be extolling the virtues of the RPI!
 

WanderingGopher said:
Are we confident that the selection committee is going to be using the exact same RPI rankings as Palm, or might there be some variance? (Unless something has changed in recent years, I thought nobody knew the exact RPI formula used by the NCAA...)


Projecting forward, it seems like it's going to be very, very close for us if we don't beat Wiscy in the quarters. As in, possibly the very last team in or very last team out if they go strictly by RPI. I know they aren't bound strictly to RPI but they've seemed to stick pretty close to it in recent years. With our extenuating circumstances - namely the Hollins injury but also the fact that our Richmond win has been unfairly tainted - I think we at the very least have a good case for not getting jumped by anybody with a lower RPI. Except, perhaps, Arkansas because of the H2H loss.
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This has been investigated, and the RPI numbers between what Palm or Warren Nolan use, compared to the NCAA might vary a bit, but it's not to a degree where it matters.
As SS said, it's more of a grouping, then they compare.
But last year it was as if they just went straight RPI to fill the field.
Although, the next team RPI wise who was from a major conference was Kentucky, and they were a pretty strong consensus to not make it.
 

In my opinion:

The Bubblers (24 battling for 13 spots)
Southern Miss (35) - Won't make it. Got bumped last year with a better RPI and the bubble is more competitive this year.
Arizona State (38) -
Dayton (39)
Oklahoma State (40)
Nebraska (41)
Saint Joseph's (42)
Tennessee (43)
Stanford (44)
Pitt (45)
SMU (46)
Kansas State (47)
Xavier (48)
Iowa (49)
GOPHERS (51)
Missouri (52)
Providence (53)
Georgetown (54)
Cal (55)
Florida State (57)
Saint John's (58)
Arkansas (60)
Green Bay (62) -- SEASON COMPLETED - They are out. Too low RPI for a non-Big 6 team.
NC State (66)
Illinois (70)

The most interesting thing to come out of this is to see how many bids the Atlantic 10 gets.
Their league is split in half between high and low RPI teams. This league is a mid-major, not a major conference, and their conference RPI is 6th I believe.
It's similar to the MWC of last year and none of those teams faired well in the tournament despite being over-seeded.
 


Stupid question. Since there are games remaining, do most peoples' projections:

A) assume the "season ended today"
B) assume that each team gets "no more wins"
C) project wins and losses for remaining games.

In other words, are we in "the first four out" category of a lot of projections because most people think we won't win any more games, or are some projections assuming we will beat Penn State but still won't get in?

I hope that question made some sense.
 

BarnBoy said:
Stupid question. Since there are games remaining, do most peoples' projections:

A) assume the "season ended today"
B) assume that each team gets "no more wins"
C) project wins and losses for remaining games.

In other words, are we in "the first four out" category of a lot of projections because most people think we won't win any more games, or are some projections assuming we will beat Penn State but still won't get in?

I hope that question made some sense.
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I have wondered this sometimes with some odd placements on some teams.
Usually I consider them all to be snapshots of where things are at the current moment. (Choice A).
 

Has anyone put together a guide for game times and who needs to lose so the Gopher's chances improve this week?
 

Hosea_Tarver said:
Has anyone put together a guide for game times and who needs to lose so the Gopher's chances improve this week?
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Xavier vs. Marquette Thursday - 9:30 PM
Dayton vs. St. Josephs - Friday 2:30 PM
Tennessee vs. Arkansas - Friday around 2:30 PM
Cal vs. Colorado - Thursday 4:30 PM
St. Johns vs. Providence Thursday - 2:30 PM

Probably better if the bold teams win.
But with the two underlined, it's really close.
Tenn and Arkansas are both looking to be in right now.
St. Johns and Providence are both out, but St. John's by a bit more.
Winner in both hopefully lose game right after.
 



WanderingGopher said:
Are we confident that the selection committee is going to be using the exact same RPI rankings as Palm, or might there be some variance? (Unless something has changed in recent years, I thought nobody knew the exact RPI formula used by the NCAA...)


Projecting forward, it seems like it's going to be very, very close for us if we don't beat Wiscy in the quarters. As in, possibly the very last team in or very last team out if they go strictly by RPI. I know they aren't bound strictly to RPI but they've seemed to stick pretty close to it in recent years. With our extenuating circumstances - namely the Hollins injury but also the fact that our Richmond win has been unfairly tainted - I think we at the very least have a good case for not getting jumped by anybody with a lower RPI. Except, perhaps, Arkansas because of the H2H loss.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Gophers best resume win this year (Wisconsin) come without Dre Hollins? Didn't he only play like 30 seconds before hurting his ankle?
 


MinnesotaBoiler99 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the Gophers best resume win this year (Wisconsin) come without Dre Hollins? Didn't he only play like 30 seconds before hurting his ankle?
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Yeah, I think people may be playing the hollins was hurt card too much. I remember awhile back Lunardi was asked if injuries were considered in the selection process, and he said that selection committee can't assume that a school would have won if said player was not hurt. Which makes sense, I mean would Malik been as hot as he was if Andre was in that game against Nebraska? No one knows. He did say it does go into consideration if said player returns and the teams becomes hot and finishes the season strong, which was not what happened with the gophers when andre returned, so I don't think anyone should bank on andre hollins being hurt helping us out at all. It'll all come down to how we finish the season and how other teams on the bubble finish.
 

GuyFawkes said:
Yeah, I think people may be playing the hollins was hurt card too much. I remember awhile back Lunardi was asked if injuries were considered in the selection process, and he said that selection committee can't assume that a school would have won if said player was not hurt. Which makes sense, I mean would Malik been as hot as he was if Andre was in that game against Nebraska? No one knows. He did say it does go into consideration if said player returns and the teams becomes hot and finishes the season strong, which was not what happened with the gophers when andre returned, so I don't think anyone should bank on andre hollins being hurt helping us out at all. It'll all come down to how we finish the season and how other teams on the bubble finish.
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The problem is that our two worst losses came with Andre out if I remember correctly (home vs NW & triple OT loss to Purdue). I don't think it's all that crazy to think we win one or both of those games with the full roster. Even one of those games goes our way and we likely are on the right side of the bubble.
 



stocker08 said:
The problem is that our two worst losses came with Andre out if I remember correctly (home vs NW & triple OT loss to Purdue). I don't think it's all that crazy to think we win one or both of those games with the full roster. Even one of those games goes our way and we likely are on the right side of the bubble.
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Again, the committee can't rewrite results based on assumptions, we very well could have won with Andre, but we just don't know, he may have gone 0 for 20 from the floor that day for all we know, just makes sense for them to stay away from assumptions, for example I think most people would have assumed we would have beat Illinois at home but we didn't(which was much worse than Purdue loss). Also Andre was back for Purdue game I believe, though it was clear he was still hurting

Sent from my LIFE PLAY using Tapatalk
 

It's not like Dre has been dominating the big ten since his return and we've gone on this big run. Since he's been back he looks hobbled and we haven't closed the season all that well. I could understand the committee not putting any stock into his injury.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
 

How far would we really want the injury caveat to be used in the evaluation of teams? If we consider it in evaluating whether a team is included vs left out, do we also consider it in seeding teams that are already in the field? Should Michigan get a 1 seed because McGary missed most of the year? Should Michigan State get a 2 seed because of all the injuries they have had to endure? As somebody said to me in another thread, your record is what your record is....I think it should be left that way.
 


golfing18now said:
How far would we really want the injury caveat to be used in the evaluation of teams? If we consider it in evaluating whether a team is included vs left out, do we also consider it in seeding teams that are already in the field? Should Michigan get a 1 seed because McGary missed most of the year? Should Michigan State get a 2 seed because of all the injuries they have had to endure? As somebody said to me in another thread, your record is what your record is....I think it should be left that way.
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They do consider it for seeding. I expect Michigan State to be at least one seed higher than their record would suggest. I also wouldn't be surprised if Kansas drops a spot with the news yesterday.

No one is suggesting that the Gophers be given moved way up the ladder. But when it comes down to splitting hairs, there's no doubt our worst loss would not have occurred if our best player wasn't hurt.
 

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:
Why should the losses without Dre Hollins be taken into consideration when the team played arguably one of it's best games without him?
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We have no injury case to make. We have not gotten measurably better since Andre's return. It's our internal conversation, not the committee's. We just need to win multiple games, and if we play our best, we will. Pitino was a tourney coach last year. Let's hope he can duplicate it this year.
 

golfing18now said:
How far would we really want the injury caveat to be used in the evaluation of teams? If we consider it in evaluating whether a team is included vs left out, do we also consider it in seeding teams that are already in the field? Should Michigan get a 1 seed because McGary missed most of the year? Should Michigan State get a 2 seed because of all the injuries they have had to endure?
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To a small extent, yeah. Not talking about huge seed jumps, or moving a team like MN from out to a 9 seed. More like a tiebreaking consideration. The committee has done this in past years. It kind of goes hand in hand with how you finish (realizing they aren't technically using "last 10 games" any more). I think they are selecting teams based on overall body of work AND -- at least implicitly -- considering what kind of team you are as of selection Sunday.

This year, don't think for a second they would leave Okie State out if they were on the bubble, given that everyone knows full well what happened without Marcus Smart. It also works in reverse. Colorado probably wouldn't make it if they had one fewer win and truly were on the bubble, because they are a much different team without Dinwiddie (who of course remains out for the year). Your Michigan example is not applicable, as McGary isn't coming back. MSU? I think that is TBD...if they run the table and look great in the BTT, you're darn right the committee will consider that some of the earlier losses should be downplayed as they're now at full strength.

It is true, though, that we need to finish proving that we are a different team now that Hollins is back and (relatively) healthy. I think one more decisive win vs Penn St and a well played game vs Wiscy would do that (to go along with impressive wins vs Iowa and PSU, and "ok" loss @Mich, to complete final 5 game stretch).
 

howeda7 said:
They do consider it for seeding. I expect Michigan State to be at least one seed higher than their record would suggest. I also wouldn't be surprised if Kansas drops a spot with the news yesterday.

No one is suggesting that the Gophers be given moved way up the ladder. But when it comes down to splitting hairs, there's no doubt our worst loss would not have occurred if our best player wasn't hurt.
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Fair enough. Injuries are part of sports. Too subjective for my taste, but if that's the way it works.....

FYI....I'm not arguing that the Gophers should be excluded, obviously. If it helps them, so be it. I do think it's hard to say they would have won that game with Hollins when their best game was without him. Not because he was out, but despite he was out. They also had one or two other duds with him.
 

Face The Facts said:
The most interesting thing to come out of this is to see how many bids the Atlantic 10 gets.
Their league is split in half between high and low RPI teams. This league is a mid-major, not a major conference, and their conference RPI is 6th I believe.
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Yes, the A10 is a problem, although at least hopefully the projected 6 bids will become 5 when Dayton and St. Joe's play each other in the conf tourney. Still should be a 4 bid league maximum, in my opinion, but that's unlikely to happen this year.

I'm also not happy at all with the Big 12 presumably getting 7 of its 10 teams in ... a near statistical impossibility made possible by Kansas playing stretches without Embiid (losing a few after climbing to a top 4 RPI), OSU's stretch without Smart (losing all 3, then recovering), and ISU having an inflated RPI coming out of non-conf and then pumping up others' resume by losing 7 games in conference. As well as TCU giving everybody a guaranteed 2 wins. I think K State in particular should be very much on the bubble if they lose to ISU in the opening tourney game, putting them at 20-12.
 

GuyFawkes said:
Yeah, I think people may be playing the hollins was hurt card too much. I remember awhile back Lunardi was asked if injuries were considered in the selection process, and he said that selection committee can't assume that a school would have won if said player was not hurt. Which makes sense, I mean would Malik been as hot as he was if Andre was in that game against Nebraska? No one knows. He did say it does go into consideration if said player returns and the teams becomes hot and finishes the season strong, which was not what happened with the gophers when andre returned, so I don't think anyone should bank on andre hollins being hurt helping us out at all. It'll all come down to how we finish the season and how other teams on the bubble finish.
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Yeah, you can't make those assumptions and I definitely wouldn't count on that for boosting us up. But I will say, that three game losing streak we had in the heart of his injury time out (I know he played against Purdue) was our only such streak the entire year, and two of those losses were against our weakest opponents in conference. We're 4-4 since that stretch, so I think we have definitely shown improvement from that time, but I don't know if it's stark enough to catch the eyes of the committee. That Illinois loss though....ouch.
 

The Gophers are 7-8 in the Big Ten when Andre plays (excluding his brief stint vs. Wisconsin).

They are 4-5 since he returned.

They were 1-2 without him (counting Badger game as without him).

Gophers are 8-10 in the Big Ten. Sounds about right.

I think the Gophers' record is reflective of their Big Ten season. We're begging if we want the committee to give the Gophers special consideration for a 3-game injury, especially considering our best win of the season basically came without him. If anything, that showed the Gophers were capable of winning without Andre, but then they proceeded to lose 2 in a row (Nebraska, Northwestern) without him.

Gophers are what their record says they are.
 

Holy Man said:
We have no injury case to make. We have not gotten measurably better since Andre's return.
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Andre's premature return at Purdue -- where he was on the court but, to anyone who watched the game, was useless limping around out there -- muddies the situation on "paper," as well as the fact that nobody really knows when/if he's fully recovered. As might the fact that we went on to beat Wiscy without him the game he got hurt.

Bear in mind, though, that our 4 losses since he returned were *at* three top-25 teams and to a red-hot Illinois team that's won 4 of its last 5 (the only loss being to conference champ Michigan). Our "bad" loss to Illinois looks less bad after they also went to MSU and Iowa and beat them both in the last 2 weeks.


I guess this is pointless, but the reason we're having this conversation of course is that it's quite possible we could miss the tourney, and there is simply no way we would have missed the tourney if Andre doesn't get hurt. Oh well.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Gophers are 7-8 in the Big Ten when Andre plays (excluding his brief stint vs. Wisconsin).

They are 4-5 since he returned.

They were 1-2 without him (counting Badger game as without him).

Gophers are 8-10 in the Big Ten. Sounds about right.

I think the Gophers' record is reflective of their Big Ten season. We're begging if we want the committee to give the Gophers special consideration for a 3-game injury, especially considering our best win of the season basically came without him. If anything, that showed the Gophers were capable of winning without Andre, but then they proceeded to lose 2 in a row (Nebraska, Northwestern) without him.

Gophers are what their record says they are.
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Begging is our lot in life. Right now I am begging for at least 2 wins in the BTT. That's the ticket.
 

Holy Man said:
We have no injury case to make. We have not gotten measurably better since Andre's return. It's our internal conversation, not the committee's. We just need to win multiple games, and if we play our best, we will. Pitino was a tourney coach last year. Let's hope he can duplicate it this year.
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He was? Are you talking about Rick Pitino?
 

The SMU resume is complete garbage if you look at it more than 4 games deep. Utter trash. They are riding the waves of being ranked a week or two ago.
 

MinnesotaBoiler99 said:
He was? Are you talking about Rick Pitino?
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My first thought also, Boiler. It continues to amaze me at how some people try to sound so intelligent, and in so doing show pure stupidity. Foot in mouth disease, I believe it is.
 

Dr.Don said:
My first thought also, Boiler. It continues to amaze me at how some people try to sound so intelligent, and in so doing show pure stupidity. Foot in mouth disease, I believe it is.
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Could he be referring to how RICH almost got his squad in as conference tourney champs?
 

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