Breaking: Iowa Favored by 2.5 Points Over Gophers at Minnesota

[GopherMarroon]

LINK: Coach PJ Fleck Compliments Iowa Running Back

 

[EG#9]

I was shocked to see Iowa open as a favorite in this game. I expected the line to open Minnesota -2.5 or -3 instead it is Iowa -2.5 and it hasn't moved. Iowa closed a -2.5 point favorite over Iowa State at home. So the oddsmakers think Minnesota is a significantly worse team than Iowa State? Then you have this: Nevada 28 Troy 26 in week 1. In week 3 you had Minnesota 27 Nevada 0 and Iowa 38 Troy 21. Troy lead at halftime and Iowa had a pick 6 in the 2nd half. I have been debating all week if I can actually bet Minnesota to win (something I hardly ever do just because I have no interest in experiencing a "double loss"). Last I checked you can get Minnesota to win by more than 4.5 or 5 at like +200 and Minnesota to win by more than 7 at like +300. To me, IF Minnesota wins it's likely not the 1-2 point nail biter because PJ has been terrible in those. I don't like our chances if Minnesota plays as tight as they have against Iowa previously. We almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again last season with insanely conservative play calling.

My biggest concern with this game on the defensive side of the ball is the tackling. We simply cannot allow Johnson to break off big runs. He's got a little Adrian Peterson to his game in that he runs a little upright but is a beast to tackle and and he's looked fast in the open field (obviously not Peterson fast). If he gets to the second level there could be some ugly plays reminiscent of the Purdue and Wisconsin games last season. Even against Nevada we had a lot of situations where the first guy missed a potential TFL and the second guy cleaned it up. A play like that against Iowa could be the difference between putting them in 2nd and 13 or watching a 20 plus yard run.

My biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball is the pass blocking. I am resigned to the fact that our running game won't magically become much improved against the best run defense we've seen all season. So can our line hold up in pass protection? That's been a weakness of this team for almost the entire Fleck era- pass protection in obvious passing situations. I could certainly see a situation where we are constantly in 2nd and long after failed first down runs and then we don't hold up in pass protection and it's a recipe to be embarrassed at home by Iowa again.

Obviously we BADLY need this game. A loss here and you are staring at 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-4 overall in a few weeks. A lot of the intangibles are in our favor here and people would be saying we were up against it if the shoe was on the other foot: Iowa's first road game of the season comes at night in a rivalry game against a Minnesota team coming off two easy home victories. Fleck has still never beat Iowa at home and the way he coached again last year in his first win in 7 tries over the Hawkeyes gives me pause. Let's hope he's changed his best AND we can avoid chewing our fingernails off in the process of seeing the Gophers keep Floyd!

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I was shocked to see Iowa open as a favorite in this game. I expected the line to open Minnesota -2.5 or -3 instead it is Iowa -2.5 and it hasn't moved. Iowa closed a -2.5 point favorite over Iowa State at home. So the oddsmakers think Minnesota is a significantly worse team than Iowa State? Then you have this: Nevada 28 Troy 26 in week 1. In week 3 you had Minnesota 27 Nevada 0 and Iowa 38 Troy 21. Troy lead at halftime and Iowa had a pick 6 in the 2nd half. I have been debating all week if I can actually bet Minnesota to win (something I hardly ever do just because I have no interest in experiencing a "double loss"). Last I checked you can get Minnesota to win by more than 4.5 or 5 at like +200 and Minnesota to win by more than 7 at like +300. To me, IF Minnesota wins it's likely not the 1-2 point nail biter because PJ has been terrible in those. I don't like our chances if Minnesota plays as tight as they have against Iowa previously. We almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again last season with insanely conservative play calling.

The 2022 13-10 loss to Iowa after rushing for over 6 yards a pop on 50+ attempts was not only brutal but hopefully the nadir of PJ’s mental freeze versus Kirk. Gotta play to win the game. Iowa isn’t elite against the pass (thus far) this year. Do we have the people to take advantage? I think so.

My biggest concern with this game on the defensive side of the ball is the tackling. We simply cannot allow Johnson to break off big runs. He's got a little Adrian Peterson to his game in that he runs a little upright but is a beast to tackle and and he's looked fast in the open field (obviously not Peterson fast). If he gets to the second level there could be some ugly plays reminiscent of the Purdue and Wisconsin games last season. Even against Nevada we had a lot of situations where the first guy missed a potential TFL and the second guy cleaned it up. A play like that against Iowa could be the difference between putting them in 2nd and 13 or watching a 20 plus yard run.

With apologies to PJ’s smile and goldfish comments one of Winfield’s best attributes was elite open field tackling, like his daddy. Hopefully the guys will channel the Winfields, swarm to and stop Johnson cold (or it’s going to be a long day).

My biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball is the pass blocking. I am resigned to the fact that our running game won't magically become much improved against the best run defense we've seen all season. So can our line hold up in pass protection? That's been a weakness of this team for almost the entire Fleck era- pass protection in obvious passing situations. I could certainly see a situation where we are constantly in 2nd and long after failed first down runs and then we don't hold up in pass protection and it's a recipe to be embarrassed at home by Iowa again.

I wonder how the Iowa DC will play MN

Obviously we BADLY need this game. A loss here and you are staring at 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-4 overall in a few weeks. A lot of the intangibles are in our favor here and people would be saying we were up against it if the shoe was on the other foot: Iowa's first road game of the season comes at night in a rivalry game against a Minnesota team coming off two easy home victories. Fleck has still never beat Iowa at home and the way he coached again last year in his first win in 7 tries over the Hawkeyes gives me pause. Let's hope he's changed his best AND we can avoid chewing our fingernails off in the process of seeing the Gophers keep Floyd!

One thing is for sure, there will be plenty of gum chewing on both sides.