Breaking: Iowa Favored by 2.5 Points Over Gophers at Minnesota ** UPDATE ** Iowa By 3 Now **

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I was shocked to see Iowa open as a favorite in this game. I expected the line to open Minnesota -2.5 or -3 instead it is Iowa -2.5 and it hasn't moved. Iowa closed a -2.5 point favorite over Iowa State at home. So the oddsmakers think Minnesota is a significantly worse team than Iowa State? Then you have this: Nevada 28 Troy 26 in week 1. In week 3 you had Minnesota 27 Nevada 0 and Iowa 38 Troy 21. Troy lead at halftime and Iowa had a pick 6 in the 2nd half. I have been debating all week if I can actually bet Minnesota to win (something I hardly ever do just because I have no interest in experiencing a "double loss"). Last I checked you can get Minnesota to win by more than 4.5 or 5 at like +200 and Minnesota to win by more than 7 at like +300. To me, IF Minnesota wins it's likely not the 1-2 point nail biter because PJ has been terrible in those. I don't like our chances if Minnesota plays as tight as they have against Iowa previously. We almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again last season with insanely conservative play calling.

My biggest concern with this game on the defensive side of the ball is the tackling. We simply cannot allow Johnson to break off big runs. He's got a little Adrian Peterson to his game in that he runs a little upright but is a beast to tackle and and he's looked fast in the open field (obviously not Peterson fast). If he gets to the second level there could be some ugly plays reminiscent of the Purdue and Wisconsin games last season. Even against Nevada we had a lot of situations where the first guy missed a potential TFL and the second guy cleaned it up. A play like that against Iowa could be the difference between putting them in 2nd and 13 or watching a 20 plus yard run.

My biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball is the pass blocking. I am resigned to the fact that our running game won't magically become much improved against the best run defense we've seen all season. So can our line hold up in pass protection? That's been a weakness of this team for almost the entire Fleck era- pass protection in obvious passing situations. I could certainly see a situation where we are constantly in 2nd and long after failed first down runs and then we don't hold up in pass protection and it's a recipe to be embarrassed at home by Iowa again.

Obviously we BADLY need this game. A loss here and you are staring at 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-4 overall in a few weeks. A lot of the intangibles are in our favor here and people would be saying we were up against it if the shoe was on the other foot: Iowa's first road game of the season comes at night in a rivalry game against a Minnesota team coming off two easy home victories. Fleck has still never beat Iowa at home and the way he coached again last year in his first win in 7 tries over the Hawkeyes gives me pause. Let's hope he's changed his best AND we can avoid chewing our fingernails off in the process of seeing the Gophers keep Floyd!
 

EG#9 said:
I was shocked to see Iowa open as a favorite in this game. I expected the line to open Minnesota -2.5 or -3 instead it is Iowa -2.5 and it hasn't moved. Iowa closed a -2.5 point favorite over Iowa State at home. So the oddsmakers think Minnesota is a significantly worse team than Iowa State? Then you have this: Nevada 28 Troy 26 in week 1. In week 3 you had Minnesota 27 Nevada 0 and Iowa 38 Troy 21. Troy lead at halftime and Iowa had a pick 6 in the 2nd half. I have been debating all week if I can actually bet Minnesota to win (something I hardly ever do just because I have no interest in experiencing a "double loss"). Last I checked you can get Minnesota to win by more than 4.5 or 5 at like +200 and Minnesota to win by more than 7 at like +300. To me, IF Minnesota wins it's likely not the 1-2 point nail biter because PJ has been terrible in those. I don't like our chances if Minnesota plays as tight as they have against Iowa previously. We almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again last season with insanely conservative play calling.
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The 2022 13-10 loss to Iowa after rushing for over 6 yards a pop on 50+ attempts was not only brutal but hopefully the nadir of PJ’s luck versus Kirk. Take shots and cross fingers. Iowa isn’t elite against the pass (thus far) this year. Do we have the people to take advantage? I think so.

EG#9 said:
My biggest concern with this game on the defensive side of the ball is the tackling. We simply cannot allow Johnson to break off big runs. He's got a little Adrian Peterson to his game in that he runs a little upright but is a beast to tackle and and he's looked fast in the open field (obviously not Peterson fast). If he gets to the second level there could be some ugly plays reminiscent of the Purdue and Wisconsin games last season. Even against Nevada we had a lot of situations where the first guy missed a potential TFL and the second guy cleaned it up. A play like that against Iowa could be the difference between putting them in 2nd and 13 or watching a 20 plus yard run.
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With apologies to PJ’s smile and goldfish comments one of Winfield’s best attributes was elite open field tackling, like his daddy. Hopefully the guys will channel the Winfields, swarm to and stop Johnson cold (or it’s going to be a long day).

EG#9 said:
My biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball is the pass blocking. I am resigned to the fact that our running game won't magically become much improved against the best run defense we've seen all season. So can our line hold up in pass protection? That's been a weakness of this team for almost the entire Fleck era- pass protection in obvious passing situations. I could certainly see a situation where we are constantly in 2nd and long after failed first down runs and then we don't hold up in pass protection and it's a recipe to be embarrassed at home by Iowa again.
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I wonder how the Iowa DC will play MN

EG#9 said:
Obviously we BADLY need this game. A loss here and you are staring at 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-4 overall in a few weeks. A lot of the intangibles are in our favor here and people would be saying we were up against it if the shoe was on the other foot: Iowa's first road game of the season comes at night in a rivalry game against a Minnesota team coming off two easy home victories. Fleck has still never beat Iowa at home and the way he coached again last year in his first win in 7 tries over the Hawkeyes gives me pause. Let's hope he's changed his best AND we can avoid chewing our fingernails off in the process of seeing the Gophers keep Floyd!
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One thing is for sure, there will be plenty of gum chewing on both sides.
 
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collegesportswire.usatoday.com

3 Big Ten football teams on upset alert for Week 4

Three Big Ten teams on upset watch heading into Week 4 of the college football season.
collegesportswire.usatoday.com collegesportswire.usatoday.com

Iowa Hawkeyes​

at Minnesota Golden Gophers on Saturday, September 21

Being 2.5-point road favorites isn’t a bad way to open Big Ten play, unless you’re a Hawkeye fan still not over last year’s upset loss to Minnesota.

Iowa has added incentive to win because a second loss in four games would all but end their chance at the new 12-team College Football Playoff setup.

The Golden Gophers could clinch a third straight shutout if they keep all phases of Iowa out of the end zone.
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Seems like this writer thinks shutting out Iowa is not out of the question. . .
 




EG#9 said:
I was shocked to see Iowa open as a favorite in this game. I expected the line to open Minnesota -2.5 or -3 instead it is Iowa -2.5 and it hasn't moved. Iowa closed a -2.5 point favorite over Iowa State at home. So the oddsmakers think Minnesota is a significantly worse team than Iowa State? Then you have this: Nevada 28 Troy 26 in week 1. In week 3 you had Minnesota 27 Nevada 0 and Iowa 38 Troy 21. Troy lead at halftime and Iowa had a pick 6 in the 2nd half. I have been debating all week if I can actually bet Minnesota to win (something I hardly ever do just because I have no interest in experiencing a "double loss"). Last I checked you can get Minnesota to win by more than 4.5 or 5 at like +200 and Minnesota to win by more than 7 at like +300. To me, IF Minnesota wins it's likely not the 1-2 point nail biter because PJ has been terrible in those. I don't like our chances if Minnesota plays as tight as they have against Iowa previously. We almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again last season with insanely conservative play calling.

My biggest concern with this game on the defensive side of the ball is the tackling. We simply cannot allow Johnson to break off big runs. He's got a little Adrian Peterson to his game in that he runs a little upright but is a beast to tackle and and he's looked fast in the open field (obviously not Peterson fast). If he gets to the second level there could be some ugly plays reminiscent of the Purdue and Wisconsin games last season. Even against Nevada we had a lot of situations where the first guy missed a potential TFL and the second guy cleaned it up. A play like that against Iowa could be the difference between putting them in 2nd and 13 or watching a 20 plus yard run.

My biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball is the pass blocking. I am resigned to the fact that our running game won't magically become much improved against the best run defense we've seen all season. So can our line hold up in pass protection? That's been a weakness of this team for almost the entire Fleck era- pass protection in obvious passing situations. I could certainly see a situation where we are constantly in 2nd and long after failed first down runs and then we don't hold up in pass protection and it's a recipe to be embarrassed at home by Iowa again.

Obviously we BADLY need this game. A loss here and you are staring at 0-3 in the Big Ten and 2-4 overall in a few weeks. A lot of the intangibles are in our favor here and people would be saying we were up against it if the shoe was on the other foot: Iowa's first road game of the season comes at night in a rivalry game against a Minnesota team coming off two easy home victories. Fleck has still never beat Iowa at home and the way he coached again last year in his first win in 7 tries over the Hawkeyes gives me pause. Let's hope he's changed his best AND we can avoid chewing our fingernails off in the process of seeing the Gophers keep Floyd!
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If the majority of the money is coming from Iowa, the nod to Iowa makes sense.

If you can get the Iowa Faithful to bet on the game as a favorite, and you think the Gophers are the better team, that's why in Vegas they build huge resorts. It's not because people gamble and win.

The smart money is probably on Minnesota with the points.
 


Xerxes_ said:
Iowa is not a good team. Minnesota should win this game at home.
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You have to remember, until the invalid fair catch fiasco, the Gophers found a way to choke away this game multiple times in the last decade. I.e. Mo fumble, Tyler Johnson dropped pass & Fleck running on the field.

Even last year gophers tried to give it away with the saddest attempt I've seen at punt coverage in my life. Luckily Cooper was waving his arm like an idiot. Probably more examples that I'm forgetting.
 
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Stuff said:
You have to remember, until the invalid fair catch fiasco, the Gophers found away to choke away this game multiple times in the last decade. I.e. Mo fumble, Tyler Johnson dropped pass & Fleck running on the field.

Even last year gophers tried to give it away with the saddest attempt I've seen at punt coverage in my life. Luckily Cooper was waving his arm like an idiot. Probably more examples that I'm forgetting.
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We have definitely found creative ways to lose a few of the iowa games in recent years as they have been ridiculously close.

As to last year though.....you don't think maybe all the arm waving DeJean did may have impacted the way the coverage team acted?.....
 

MNVCGUY said:
We have definitely found creative ways to lose a few of the iowa games in recent years as they have been ridiculously close.

As to last year though.....you don't think maybe all the arm waving DeJean did may have impacted the way the coverage team acted?.....
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Yes, its possible that his hand waving impacted the coverage. That said, there was some real poor hand tackle attempts and the coverage was lined up endzone to end zone instead of side line to side line. 1 juke caused 4-5 gophers to miss tackles.

#37 didn't think it was a fair catch because he attempted the saddest tackle I've seen with no hesitation as if he thought it was a fair catch.
 

Fair catch signal was last year. Who cares?? This year will be determined by our OL blocking their 6th year defensive tackles. If they don’t we lose simply as that.
 




I'm actually surprised this line has shifted more towards us over the course of the week. Given how the games have gone in recent years it would be crazy to bet on a game between these two teams anyway :)
 

MNVCGUY said:
I'm actually surprised this line has shifted more towards us over the course of the week. Given how the games have gone in recent years it would be crazy to bet on a game between these two teams anyway :)
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People betting on this game are the kinda folks betting on 3rd rate South American soccer leagues.... they got problems.
 

denguegopher said:
Those low expectations do not extend to my domestic chores.
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My brother in-law is either a complete idiot or pure genius. Everything my sister asks him to do, he screws it up so badly that she never asks him to do it again.

He's a great Dad so I always give him a pass when I see my sister mowing the lawn.
 



WoodburyTim said:
These line setters in Vegas don’t read Gopherhole. Lazy
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They also don't set the lines based on what they think will happen they set them based on how they think people will bet on the game.
 

MNVCGUY said:
They also don't set the lines based on what they think will happen they set them based on how they think people will bet on the game.
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Then they definitely aren’t reading Gopherhole.
 

MNVCGUY said:
They also don't set the lines based on what they think will happen they set them based on how they think people will bet on the game.
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So true, we all remember how much the betters moved the line the day before the UNC game.
 


Gophers guards and center are key to this game. They cannot let themselves get whipped at the point of attack. The man with the correct leverage will win. Win the one on one battles upfront and everything else takes care of itself. Greg Johnson has to play fearless, and relentless! Same thing with our Defensive tackles, they have to be relentless to the ball carrier for Iowa. One thing you can count on is Iowa faking the counter play and trying to throw the skinny post to the tight end, they do it in key situations in third quarter every year.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Are you surprised that people here think we have a good chance of winning this game? Don't see many saying it will be easy or a blowout victory, but the teams seem very evenly matched and we are at home.
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No not all. I got a good feeling we win this game myself.

I was more poking fun at the reactions in odds or media prediction threads, where some are outraged that anyone would not be picking the Gophers or considering them an underdog.
 

WoodburyTim said:
No not all. I got a good feeling we win this game myself.

I was more poking fun at the reactions in odds or media prediction threads, where some are outraged that anyone would not be picking the Gophers or considering them an underdog.
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Not seeing much outrage.....frustration maybe that Iowa is getting credit for things that might not really be accurate this year (advantage on defense). But people picking Iowa is totally understandable given the relative perceptions of the teams nationally.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Not seeing much outrage.....frustration maybe that Iowa is getting credit for things that might not really be accurate this year (advantage on defense). But people picking Iowa is totally understandable given the relative perceptions of the teams nationally.
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I think Flecknation was probably kidding in his post but “?!?!?!?” is how outrage is usually expressed in writing.
 

Hopefully the offense opens things up and can keep the ball moving. Also, hopefully Fleck doesn't play for the FGs or turtle shell up when he gets ahead by 3 or 7.
 

gopherdudepart2 said:
Gophers guards and center are key to this game. They cannot let themselves get whipped at the point of attack. The man with the correct leverage will win. Win the one on one battles upfront and everything else takes care of itself. Greg Johnson has to play fearless, and relentless! Same thing with our Defensive tackles, they have to be relentless to the ball carrier for Iowa. One thing you can count on is Iowa faking the counter play and trying to throw the skinny post to the tight end, they do it in key situations in third quarter every year.
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Oh, the RT position I think is the most important on the line. That’s been swinging gate all year.
 

I would fully expect IA to have 7-8 guys in the box on virtually every play. Throwing it early and often to set up the run would certainly catch them off guard and their defensive weakness is clearly their secondary.

With that said, we probably run the ball 52 times tomorrow.
 


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