Breaking: Iowa Favored by 2.5 Points Over Gophers at Minnesota

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Gophergrandpa said:
Kaleb Johnson’s running is setting up Iowa’s passing game. In the Troy game, Cade McNamara was 19 - 23, with no INTs. Ten different Hawkeyes caught passes. Iowa’s offense is becoming quite efficient under the new OC. Somehow, I think our D might actually be as good as Iowa’s this year. Iowa did yield 21 points to Troy (more than the Gophs have yielded all season).
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Iowa was down 10-14 at halftime.....to Troy. They wore Troy down and pulled away in the second half but Iowa's offense is not fixed.....better than the garbage they were the last few years but still leaves a lot to be desired.

As for Kaleb Johnson.....he is a good RB but we did good against him last year and he doesn't have much of a track record of success against good defenses so I wouldn't read a ton into his start to the season until he proves he can do it against a good D. If he dominates our D then it might be time to look at him in a different light.
 



O/U I saw is 36.5. My gut is saying hit the over. If Troy can put up 21 against the Iowa D, Minnesota should be able to at least match that.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
O/U I saw is 36.5. My gut is saying hit the over. If Troy can put up 21 against the Iowa D, Minnesota should be able to at least match that.
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Iowa's D has been vulnerable to explosive plays this year so far. Allowed a 75 yard TD pass against Iowa State, and TD passes of 63 and 62 yards against Troy. Quite out of character for them. I hope we try to go downfield on them a few times. Iowa STs has already allowed a punt return TD this year: 77 yards by Troy. If Iowa's special teams are no longer invincible, that changes a lot. One word: Koi. This should be a helluva game. Go Gophers.
 
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TwistingMyMelon said:
I agree that's the major concern. From what I've seen of him, he's fast as hell and we won't catch him if he gets any daylight. Have to hit him as quickly as possible.
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He runs hard as hell, and has been a concern of mine since week 1.

We will do extremely well if we hold him to the ~125 rushing yards that we gave up to Hampton.
 


MNVCGUY said:
Iowa was down 10-14 at halftime.....to Troy. They wore Troy down and pulled away in the second half but Iowa's offense is not fixed.....better than the garbage they were the last few years but still leaves a lot to be desired.

As for Kaleb Johnson.....he is a good RB but we did good against him last year and he doesn't have much of a track record of success against good defenses so I wouldn't read a ton into his start to the season until he proves he can do it against a good D. If he dominates our D then it might be time to look at him in a different light.
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Sounds like an easy Gopher win!
 




Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
O/U I saw is 36.5. My gut is saying hit the over. If Troy can put up 21 against the Iowa D, Minnesota should be able to at least match that.
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I am betting on the under. Neither offense is a barn burner but Iowa has a better OL. Would be surprised to see KJohnson gain over 100 against us. With our LBS depleted.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Not in the slightest.....but it is a very winnable game if we play well.
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My guess is it will be hard to run against Iowa—but they have shown weakness in their secondary. If the Gophers are to win they will need to exploit that weakness
 

Rowthatboat said:
My guess is it will be hard to run against Iowa—but they have shown weakness in their secondary. If the Gophers are to win they will need to exploit that weakness
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Early season stats are tricky because they are really dependent on who a team has played. I wouldn't be shocked if Iowa's run D is tough but it also feels like they have taken a step back on defense and special teams and are not nearly as dominant in those two phases as they have been in recent years.

This is when we really get to see what teams are made of.
 




Kaleb Johnson was the #18 recruit from Ohio in 2022. It was funny watching some of his high school highlights because he is so much bigger than his competition. It looks like a fast lineman playing running back!

I watched his highlights from the Iowa State and Akron games (see links below). Not once did I see him juke anyone out. He is running through the line without getting touched in just about all his highlight real plays. It looks like he can outrun most linebackers which is pretty good for his size, but he is not outrunning defensive backs. He is a big back so when he gets a full head of steam and is getting tackled by linebackers and d-backs already getting pushed backwards or running side-to-side he pushes the pile a good distance.

Is this just a case of Iowa's blockers mauling overmatched opponents and making the running back look like a world beater?? I think I'll take their run blocking over ours so far this year. He reminds me of a less talented version of Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, no offense intended. Maybe he deserves credit for running well to daylight and having good "vision"? There seems to be a LOT of daylight on his runs! For those of you with deeper football knowledge than me (i.e. many of you), what do you see?

I agree with MNVCGUY that it's tough to evaluate play early in the season. Level of competition is so bad in many instances. We're going to learn a lot about both teams this week.



 
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My two greatest concerns against the Pigs:

1. Our OL has looked weak, even against lesser competition. Will we give DT room to run against another strong Iowa defense?
2. Will the tackling issues we saw against UNC rear its ugly head against Kaleb Johnson, who looks like one of the strongest backs in the B10 so far?

If we give Brosmer time to throw, Iowa's secondary looks weaker than usual.

With Iowa I think we've all learned that all reasonable analysis goes out the window and anything can happen.
 

Gophers1992 said:
My two greatest concerns against the Pigs:

1. Our OL has looked weak, even against lesser competition. Will we give DT room to run against another strong Iowa defense?
2. Will the tackling issues we saw against UNC rear its ugly head against Kaleb Johnson, who looks like one of the strongest backs in the B10 so far?

If we give Brosmer time to throw, Iowa's secondary looks weaker than usual.

With Iowa I think we've all learned that all reasonable analysis goes out the window and anything can happen.
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What I remember of NC's back is that he was super shifty! Kaleb looks strong and pretty fast, but he does not look shifty or overly quick. It doesn't mean he can't gash us, but they look like very different backs. My concern is can we handle the Iowa offensive line when they are run blocking?
 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
What I remember of NC's back is that he was super shifty! Kaleb looks strong and pretty fast, but he does not look shifty or overly quick. It doesn't mean he can't gash us, but they look like very different backs. My concern is can we handle the Iowa offensive line when they are run blocking?
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To my eye, the current Gopher team looks better than last year's team on defense. Last season the Minnesota defense had some rough moments.

But, that being said... in last season's battle for Floyd, Kaleb Johnson led Iowa in rushing with the following stat line:

6 carries / 18 yards / 3.0 yards per carry / 0 TD

 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
Kaleb Johnson was the #18 recruit from Ohio in 2022. It was funny watching some of his high school highlights because he is so much bigger than his competition. It looks like a fast lineman playing running back!

I watched his highlights from the Iowa State and Akron games (see links below). Not once did I see him juke anyone out. He is running through the line without getting touched in just about all his highlight real plays. It looks like he can outrun most linebackers which is pretty good for his size, but he is not outrunning defensive backs. He is a big back so when he gets a full head of steam and is getting tackled by linebackers and d-backs already getting pushed backwards or running side-to-side he pushes the pile a good distance.

Is this just a case of Iowa's blockers mauling overmatched opponents and making the running back look like a world beater?? I think I'll take their run blocking over ours so far this year. He reminds me of a less talented version of Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, no offense intended. Maybe he deserves credit for running well to daylight and having good "vision"? There seems to be a LOT of daylight on his runs! For those of you with deeper football knowledge than me (i.e. many of you), what do you see?

I agree with MNVCGUY that it's tough to evaluate play early in the season. Level of competition is so bad in many instances. We're going to learn a lot about both teams this week.



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Great evaluation, I thought the same thing watching his highlights. I see him displaying some good vision and decent speed, but most of his big runs come through huge holes where he is untouched. Not sure he has great power or is great at making guys miss. He only averaged 3 ypc last year vs us, granted it was only on six carries. He hasn’t been a world beater in his first few years by any means, so not sure he requires a ton of hand wringing. Now if the Iowa Oline has improved from the last few years then that is another story.
 



According to CBSsportline (as of Wednesday morning) 85% of the public bet is on Iowa to cover and the money line split is 60/40 in favor of Iowa at -135/Minnesota +115

Even more surprising, to me anyway, is 82% of the bet is on the over.
 


gopherbadgerman said:
As is every game.

You think the Gophers beat Iowa?
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I disagree that it is true for every game. We can play well against a team like Ohio State and still lose due to the talent disparity between us and the elite teams who get the best of the best each year. To win those games you usually have to play perfect and they have to make some mistakes.

As for Iowa......if we play a clean game (avoid turnovers, costly penalties....) we will win this game. I expect it to be a close game but I haven't seen anything from Iowa that makes me think we can't beat them, especially at home.
 

Xerxes_ said:
According to CBSsportline (as of Wednesday morning) 85% of the public bet is on Iowa to cover and the money line split is 60/40 in favor of Iowa at -135/Minnesota +115

Even more surprising, to me anyway, is 82% of the bet is on the over.
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The over probably looks tantalizing to casual bettors, but they haven't seen these two teams play recently.

That said I think the Gophers will pass a lot on Saturday night, Iowa's offense looks improved, and the tempo of the game should be faster than the last 2 years.
 

fmlizard said:
The over probably looks tantalizing to casual bettors, but they haven't seen these two teams play recently.

That said I think the Gophers will pass a lot on Saturday night, Iowa's offense looks improved, and the tempo of the game should be faster than the last 2 years.
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To me it looks like Iowa's offense is better but still leaves a lot to be desired (they really really struggled during the first half against Troy).....and their defense/special teams are no longer elite....still really solid but not quite at the level they have been in recent years.

I'm actually a little surprised we haven't seen the line move in our direction but I'm totally fine with being underestimated and being able to approach the game with an underdog mentality.
 

Rowthatboat said:
My guess is it will be hard to run against Iowa—but they have shown weakness in their secondary. If the Gophers are to win they will need to exploit that weakness
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It will be easier to run against Iowa (or anyone else) if the short and medium passing game works. We set up the run with the pass. Completing short and medium passes forces the defense to play the whole field every down, opening up running lanes.
 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
Kaleb Johnson was the #18 recruit from Ohio in 2022. It was funny watching some of his high school highlights because he is so much bigger than his competition. It looks like a fast lineman playing running back!

I watched his highlights from the Iowa State and Akron games (see links below). Not once did I see him juke anyone out. He is running through the line without getting touched in just about all his highlight real plays. It looks like he can outrun most linebackers which is pretty good for his size, but he is not outrunning defensive backs. He is a big back so when he gets a full head of steam and is getting tackled by linebackers and d-backs already getting pushed backwards or running side-to-side he pushes the pile a good distance.

Is this just a case of Iowa's blockers mauling overmatched opponents and making the running back look like a world beater?? I think I'll take their run blocking over ours so far this year. He reminds me of a less talented version of Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, no offense intended. Maybe he deserves credit for running well to daylight and having good "vision"? There seems to be a LOT of daylight on his runs! For those of you with deeper football knowledge than me (i.e. many of you), what do you see?

I agree with MNVCGUY that it's tough to evaluate play early in the season. Level of competition is so bad in many instances. We're going to learn a lot about both teams this week.



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SeaBee_Gopher said:
Kaleb Johnson was the #18 recruit from Ohio in 2022. It was funny watching some of his high school highlights because he is so much bigger than his competition. It looks like a fast lineman playing running back!

I watched his highlights from the Iowa State and Akron games (see links below). Not once did I see him juke anyone out. He is running through the line without getting touched in just about all his highlight real plays. It looks like he can outrun most linebackers which is pretty good for his size, but he is not outrunning defensive backs. He is a big back so when he gets a full head of steam and is getting tackled by linebackers and d-backs already getting pushed backwards or running side-to-side he pushes the pile a good distance.

Is this just a case of Iowa's blockers mauling overmatched opponents and making the running back look like a world beater?? I think I'll take their run blocking over ours so far this year. He reminds me of a less talented version of Wisconsin's Braelon Allen, no offense intended. Maybe he deserves credit for running well to daylight and having good "vision"? There seems to be a LOT of daylight on his runs! For those of you with deeper football knowledge than me (i.e. many of you), what do you see?

I agree with MNVCGUY that it's tough to evaluate play early in the season. Level of competition is so bad in many instances. We're going to learn a lot about both teams this week.



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I'm sure Iowa has more than one back who could run through those holes. These highlights show a dominating line opening huge gaps.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I disagree that it is true for every game. We can play well against a team like Ohio State and still lose due to the talent disparity between us and the elite teams who get the best of the best each year. To win those games you usually have to play perfect and they have to make some mistakes.

As for Iowa......if we play a clean game (avoid turnovers, costly penalties....) we will win this game. I expect it to be a close game but I haven't seen anything from Iowa that makes me think we can't beat them, especially at home.
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I'll rephrase - for most games. From your original post I replied to (I'm paraphrasing):

"It's a very winnable game if the we play well"

How many games this year are not very winnable if the Gophers play well?

How many are winnable if they do not play well? I'd say not many, right?

I'll agree if MN plays well I would expect them to beat Iowa.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I'll rephrase - for most games. From your original post I replied to (I'm paraphrasing):

"It's a very winnable game if the we play well"

How many games this year are not very winnable if the Gophers play well?

How many are winnable if they do not play well? I'd say not many, right?

I'll agree if MN plays well I would expect them to beat Iowa.
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I don't think we have any gimmes left on our schedule and I expect a lot of close games. That said there are only 3 games remaining on our schedule where we probably need to play well and get some help in order to win and those are @Michigan and at home against USC and PSU.

The other 6 are tossups that could go either way depending on which team plays better but I like our chances in all of those games if we don't hurt ourselves with mistakes.
 

Dakota2 said:
It will be easier to run against Iowa (or anyone else) if the short and medium passing game works. We set up the run with the pass. Completing short and medium passes forces the defense to play the whole field every down, opening up running lanes.
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I think the Iowa defense is more vulnerable than we've seen in a while. The Iowa defense has not seen their typical form in the first 3 games and has already given up 3 plays of over 50 yds so far this season. I also point to the fact that Troy’s starting quarterback, Crowder, was out due to injury during their game against the Hawks. Caldwell started in his place, and later in the game, Kilcrease also played. This is the stat line for Troy's BACKUP QBs - 16/26 for 229 with 8.8 avg, 2 TD & 1 INT. Most 2nd & 3rd String QBs in the Sun Belt couldn't make a B1G roster, yet they put up decent numbers against what is supposed to be one of the better B1G defenses. The Hawks have also proven to be rather one-dimensional offensively with the running game when things get tough (2nd half Iowa St). SIDE NOTE: The Nevada team that Minn just beat 27-0 also played Troy (with their starting QB) like Iowa and beat them 28-26. All that said, this will likely still be a rock fight.
 

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