Breaking from the Athletic: Big 10 to invite Washington and Oregon

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well, so much of what is happening is being driven by TV money. simultaneously, as cord-cutting accelerates, the financial structure that has propped up ESPN and the TV networks is changing. look at the collapse of the regional sports networks.

at some point, there has to be a limit. right deals and fees cannot keep going up forever - and I am very skeptical that DTC options will generate enough revenue to make up for the loss in cable TV subscriptions.

sooner or later, the TV money is going to stabilize or even take a step backwards. and that will bring about a reckoning for schools where they will either have to rein in football budgets, or start eliminating non-revenue sports.
 

goldengophers said:
A super league will be attempted here with Minnesota on the outside looking in. Anyone who thinks we are immune is mistaken.
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The incentives of the schools and their leadership are not as brazen as in pro sports but given what we’ve seen with the destruction of the PAC-12, relegation of Oregon State/Washington State/Stanford to the Big 12 or worse (or dissolution of programs), a crippled Big 12, an outgunned ACC, I wonder. These events were presumedly voted on and approved by school leadership. They did this. For what: a larger tv contract and money they don’t really need but maybe most importantly FOMO. Fear of relegation and second tier or third tier status.

So, IF a group of schools starts a power 1 conference it is not out of the realm of possibility the dominoes start to fall pretty quickly. Would schools really choose to break up the Big 10 and SEC to chase even more money. I don’t know. None of this makes much sense to me. Once the decision is made to go both feet in on big biz without considerations of other attributes like tradition there aren’t many firewalls in place before rock bottom is reached particularly with PE.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
The incentives of the schools and their leadership are not as brazen as in pro sports but given what we’ve seen with the destruction of the PAC-12, relegation of Oregon State/Washington State/Stanford to the Big 12 or worse (or dissolution of programs), a crippled Big 12, an outgunned ACC, I wonder. These events were presumedly voted on and approved by school leadership. They did this. For what: a larger tv contract and money they don’t really need but maybe most importantly FOMO. Fear of relegation and second tier or third tier status.

So, IF a group of schools starts a power 1 conference it is not out of the realm of possibility the dominoes start to fall pretty quickly. Would schools really choose to break up the Big 10 and SEC to chase even more money. I don’t know. None of this makes much sense to me. Once the decision is made to go both feet in on big biz without considerations of other attributes like tradition there aren’t many firewalls in place before rock bottom is reached particularly with PE.
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Just imagine the TV contract a league with these teams could get with no split to the lesser guys:

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Florida State
Clemson
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State/A&M/Miami




Not Nebraska
 

Pompous Elitist said:
I don’t know a thing about soccer, but maybe based on your comment. Depends on the deal.
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Yeah soccer tried to do this with all the big clubs (look up Soccer Super League if you’re curious) in Europe and fans lost their minds (Ted Lasso did kind of a pandering episode to this if you’ve seen it). All the external pressure led to them backing out as well as the leagues/teams being left out saying they’d fine and/or not play them (the equivalent would be if Mich was invited and Mich St said we won’t play you anymore in anything). I think things get hairy as a move like this would greatly piss off fan bases and donors to fully bail on rivalries and tradition. Nothing like that has fully happened yet so I think people just adapt and become more ok. Hard to say what would happen with a major major shift like scooping the top money makers in each league and running with it. There are a TON of logistical things that would have to be answered with a few being is this for all sports including non revenue (no way teams being left behind continue to pander to the others leaving), do players want to end up in this league, what do you do when inevitably some of these teams start sinking, are players contracted? I would expect there are business/PE folks looking at this and running the numbers, but this is a tough one as they’ll always be lesser than the NFL and then how do you gain the leverage to get enough to make it fruitful long term, both for the investor and the Universities who take the plunge?
 

goldengophers said:
Just imagine the TV contract a league with these teams could get with no split to the lesser guys:

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Florida State
Clemson
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State/A&M/Miami




Not Nebraska
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It’s an interesting question. I wouldn’t watch it. Would fans not of those teams care anymore to watch a league that’s not as good as the NFL that they have no vested interest in? I watch all the CFB now because my team is in the league and because the other B10 games impact where my team finishes. And would the rest of the member schools continue to play these teams or would they cut them off
 


goldengophers said:
Just imagine the TV contract a league with these teams could get with no split to the lesser guys:

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Florida State
Clemson
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State/A&M/Miami




Not Nebraska
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Half of those teams would be the worst of the best and possibly lose their premium status. Sometimes there's value in very good teams operating in a league with solid competitive programs that only challenge for the top once in a while. Alabama wouldn't be Alabama if they had a .500 record against top teams. Regardless, I suppose the money would be good assuming fanbases of the losing teams don't dwindle.
 

goldengophers said:
Just imagine the TV contract a league with these teams could get with no split to the lesser guys:

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Florida State
Clemson
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State/A&M/Miami




Not Nebraska
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Someone has to lose games. Close to half the teams would have losing records, and the top few teams would likely have 2-4 losses.
 

goldengophers said:
A super league will be attempted here with Minnesota on the outside looking in. Anyone who thinks we are immune is mistaken.
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Honestly I wouldn’t mind being in the tier 2 league with Iowa, wisconsin, Nebraska, northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Missouri.
 

goldengophers said:
Just imagine the TV contract a league with these teams could get with no split to the lesser guys:

Georgia
Alabama
Florida
LSU
Florida State
Clemson
Texas
USC
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
Penn State/A&M/Miami




Not Nebraska
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Problem with this super league is that half of those teams will go under .500 every year if it’s a true super league.

If they went super league, the rest of the ncaa should simply not play those teams anymore. And college football might actually be better to watch for 80% of fanbases.
 



upnorthkid said:
It’s an interesting question. I wouldn’t watch it. Would fans not of those teams care anymore to watch a league that’s not as good as the NFL that they have no vested interest in? I watch all the CFB now because my team is in the league and because the other B10 games impact where my team finishes. And would the rest of the member schools continue to play these teams or would they cut them off
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I wouldn't watch a football league without a team to root for that's at the same level of competition. As much as I love football, I probably wouldn't watch the NFL much without the Vikings. To your point, I don't think a premium CFB league would gain fans in total; it might even lose fans for the poorer performing teams.

This is why I hope the BIG eventually goes back to some sort of divisions with historical geographic rivalries. The Gophs might not have many chances at winning the conference with the juggernauts in OSU and MI, and especially now with the addition of the good Pac12 teams, but competition within the BIG West has been fun.
 

upnorthkid said:
Yeah soccer tried to do this with all the big clubs (look up Soccer Super League if you’re curious) in Europe and fans lost their minds (Ted Lasso did kind of a pandering episode to this if you’ve seen it). All the external pressure led to them backing out as well as the leagues/teams being left out saying they’d fine and/or not play them (the equivalent would be if Mich was invited and Mich St said we won’t play you anymore in anything). I think things get hairy as a move like this would greatly piss off fan bases and donors to fully bail on rivalries and tradition. Nothing like that has fully happened yet so I think people just adapt and become more ok. Hard to say what would happen with a major major shift like scooping the top money makers in each league and running with it. There are a TON of logistical things that would have to be answered with a few being is this for all sports including non revenue (no way teams being left behind continue to pander to the others leaving), do players want to end up in this league, what do you do when inevitably some of these teams start sinking, are players contracted? I would expect there are business/PE folks looking at this and running the numbers, but this is a tough one as they’ll always be lesser than the NFL and then how do you gain the leverage to get enough to make it fruitful long term, both for the investor and the Universities who take the plunge?
Click to expand...

The ROI might be predicated on the holy grail of industry consolidation, pricing power, and cutting costs like revenue sharing with the dozens of power 4 that wouldn’t be invited.

I like to hear that the soccer fans revolted. We haven’t seen that in American sports. Many seem to like what’s going on? We seem to love the drama more, and accept collateral damages. Interesting to think about what schools will choose to do if and when proposals are offered.
 

Taji34 said:
No chance a founding member gets pushed out. That would be unprecedented and would (I assume) require every other school in the conference to vote to remove them.

Conference also needs a unanimous vote to approve any future media rights deals, so there's also no way a media rights deal reducing a founding member's slice of the pie gets approved either.
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PMWinSTP said:
Umm, no.
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So what happens when Ohio State, Michigan, & USC come to the same conclusion that FSU has already come to? Which is they are the ones drawing the eyeballs and driving up tv revenue so they should have a larger piece of the pie than they conference peers and if they don't get it there might be trouble.

We're going to find out how committed and how loyal the blue bloods of the B1G are in the next few years. Because they know damn well outside of themselves, PSU, and possibly Oregon all of of the other B1G programs could fall off the face of the Earth and it wouldn't hurt the media deal one bit.
 

Some guy said:
Honestly I wouldn’t mind being in the tier 2 league with Iowa, wisconsin, Nebraska, northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Missouri.
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We might get that sometime very soon.
 



Xerxes_ said:
So what happens when Ohio State, Michigan, & USC come to the same conclusion that FSU has already come to? Which is they are the ones drawing the eyeballs and driving up tv revenue so they should have a larger piece of the pie than they conference peers and if they don't get it there might be trouble.

We're going to find out how committed and how loyal the blue bloods of the B1G are in the next few years. Because they know damn well outside of themselves, PSU, and possibly Oregon all of of the other B1G programs could fall off the face of the Earth and it wouldn't hurt the media deal one bit.
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They won't.
 

Xerxes_ said:
We might get that sometime very soon.
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The thing that sucks about realignment is losing the games people care about.
I care about Iowa and Wisconsin.
As long as we end up in a league with then, I will be able to maintain the same level of fandom.

To me, not a lot of difference between playing Maryland, Washington, or Indiana
 

Some guy said:
The thing that sucks about realignment is losing the games people care about.
I care about Iowa and Wisconsin.
As long as we end up in a league with then, I will be able to maintain the same level of fandom.

To me, not a lot of difference between playing Maryland, Washington, or Indiana
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I think there's a great chance at new rivalries too...love to get something going with the Huskies. It didn't take long for many folks (not me) out here to make the Nebby game a rivalry for them.
 

PMWinSTP said:
They won't.
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I'm sure that was what most people would have said a few years ago if asked, "Will the B1G add USC, UCLA, Washington, & Oregon?" In fact the question was so out there nobody would have bothered asking it. Now here we are in that reality.

The only thing that is 100% certain here is money will dictate decisions.

There are only about 5-6 programs in the B1G that are in control of their destiny. The others are along for the ride as long as it lasts and are as replaceable as a pair of socks.
 

Xerxes_ said:
I'm sure that was what most people would have said a few years ago if asked, "Will the B1G add USC, UCLA, Washington, & Oregon?" In fact the question was so out there nobody would have bothered asking it. Now here we are in that reality.

The only thing that is 100% certain here is money will dictate decisions.

There are only about 5-6 programs in the B1G that are in control of their destiny. The others are along for the ride as long as it lasts and are as replaceable as a pair of socks.
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Good grief.
 



Xerxes_ said:
So what happens when Ohio State, Michigan, & USC come to the same conclusion that FSU has already come to? Which is they are the ones drawing the eyeballs and driving up tv revenue so they should have a larger piece of the pie than they conference peers and if they don't get it there might be trouble.
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You have the conclusion wrong. FSU isn’t panicking because they want a larger piece of the pie. They are panicking because they are getting left behind and risk falling into a lower tier. No school in the B1G or SEC has that same worry. If one of those two conferences starts separating from the other revenue-wise, then you might have a legitimate worry.
 

IMO the Big ten got the better schools overall basketball and football combined and seems to have gained the most.
 

PMWinSTP said:
I think there's a great chance at new rivalries too...love to get something going with the Huskies. It didn't take long for many folks (not me) out here to make the Nebby game a rivalry for them.
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Agreed. But if we ever got into a situation where we lost wisconsin and/or Iowa it would really be a turnoff for most of the fans
 

Some guy said:
The thing that sucks about realignment is losing the games people care about.
I care about Iowa and Wisconsin.
As long as we end up in a league with then, I will be able to maintain the same level of fandom.

To me, not a lot of difference between playing Maryland, Washington, or Indiana
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I agree with your first thought, however disagree with the last sentence. I personally find games against USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon MUCH more interesting than games versus Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, NW, etc..

Regarding people nervous that Minnesota could be on the outside looking in down the road, a couple things we have in our favor: residing in the 16th largest metro area and having a university with some many students year in year out means a lot of alumni spread out across the nation.
 
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Donovan said:
I agree with your first thought, however disagree with the last sentence. I personally find games against USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon MUCH more interesting than games versus Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, NW, etc..

Regarding people nervous that Minnesota could be on the outside looking in down the road, a couple things we have in our favor: residing in the 16th largest metro area and having a university with some many students year in year out means a lot of alumni spread out across the nation.
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I agree with you.
But a game between Washington, Maryland, and Indiana are comparable
I find USC and Oregon more interesting than Indiana and Purdue. But no more interesting than Michigan and penn state
 



Some guy said:
If the ACC ceases to exist there would be a massive hole in notre dame schedules


They play 10 power 5
Stanford no longer power 5
5 of those 10 are ACC

Essentially they would be playing a mid major schedule
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Yeah, I think it's just a matter of time before Irish will have a decision to make. If Stanford reaches out to B1G, that might be the trigger.
 

TruthSeeker said:
It's perfectly normal. Most new members don't get a full revenue share until enough hears have past. In this case, Oregon and Washington will get their full share when the next contract is negotiated.
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Rutgers and Maryland still aren't getting full shares and won't until 2027, so it might be 2 or 3 Media Rights contracts before Washington & Oregon get there.

To me that's completely fair that the teams, especially for the Big 10 pre-1990 who have spent over a century building brand. Michigan St is not quite 100 years, but getting there.
 

Some guy said:
I agree with you.
But a game between Washington, Maryland, and Indiana are comparable
I find USC and Oregon more interesting than Indiana and Purdue. But no more interesting than Michigan and penn state
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Washington is much more relevant in football than Maryland, Indiana and Minnesota. The Huskies have been ranked at least one week in the last 13 of 15 seasons. Maryland has done that 3 times and Rutgers 2. Minnesota has been ranked in 4 seasons.
 

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