Breaking down potential fatal flaws for 16 College Football Playoff contenders

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RogueGopher

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www.espn.com

Breaking down potential fatal flaws for 16 top playoff contenders

In Week 4, Georgia went from looking unbeatable to remarkably human. Here are the issues the top teams must clean up to get to the title game.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

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Minnesota​

Record (Week 4 result): 4-0 (defeated Michigan State, 34-7)

Rankings: 23rd in AP, seventh in SP+, 14th in FPI

Current odds of reaching CFP: 10.1%

Fatal flaw: Not enough explosiveness. P.J. Fleck's Golden Gophers have outscored opponents by a combined 183-24, and after devouring three cupcakes, they took to the road and blew out Michigan State, 34-7. How they are only 23rd in the AP poll, I have no idea.

Veteran and run-pass option master Tanner Morgan is still at quarterback and has completed 77% of his passes. A trio of running backs is averaging 41 carries and 255 yards per game, and even without leading receiver Chris Autman-Bell, the receiving corps remains deep, hyphenated (Michael Brown-Stephens, Brevyn Spann-Ford) and reliable. The chunk plays aren't enormous, though. Minnesota is fourth in FBS with 86 gains of 10-plus yards, but only two of those have gone for 40-plus. It is 100th in marginal explosiveness. Easy points will become vital as the schedule strength increases, and it's not clear the Gophers will create many of those.
 


Meh, I think it's more demoralizing when you methodically pound the opponent into submission. If the highlight reel big play happens, so be it! This team looks like it can just do whatever it wants with great success and there's nothing the other team can do to stop it!
 

RogueGopher said:
www.espn.com

Breaking down potential fatal flaws for 16 top playoff contenders

In Week 4, Georgia went from looking unbeatable to remarkably human. Here are the issues the top teams must clean up to get to the title game.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

i
Minnesota​

Record (Week 4 result): 4-0 (defeated Michigan State, 34-7)

Rankings: 23rd in AP, seventh in SP+, 14th in FPI

Current odds of reaching CFP: 10.1%

Fatal flaw: Not enough explosiveness. P.J. Fleck's Golden Gophers have outscored opponents by a combined 183-24, and after devouring three cupcakes, they took to the road and blew out Michigan State, 34-7. How they are only 23rd in the AP poll, I have no idea.

Veteran and run-pass option master Tanner Morgan is still at quarterback and has completed 77% of his passes. A trio of running backs is averaging 41 carries and 255 yards per game, and even without leading receiver Chris Autman-Bell, the receiving corps remains deep, hyphenated (Michael Brown-Stephens, Brevyn Spann-Ford) and reliable. The chunk plays aren't enormous, though. Minnesota is fourth in FBS with 86 gains of 10-plus yards, but only two of those have gone for 40-plus. It is 100th in marginal explosiveness. Easy points will become vital as the schedule strength increases, and it's not clear the Gophers will create many of those.
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This is actually a really good point. MN obviously won't continue converting on nearly 80% of 3rd downs or possessing the ball for 40 min per game, so at some point they'll likely need a few big plays to win against tougher D's (PSU? Iowa? Wisc? OSU?). The D can probably keep them in most games, but can they win without explosive plays when another team scores 20+?

Another concern I'll not has been the lack of pass rush wins in 1:1 situations so far. I don't think they've been facing elite OLs to this point (and PU isn't either), so whether they can get to the passer later in the season will be a big question.
 



Those also don't help TOP. So I can live with it.
 


MGGopher said:
This is actually a really good point. MN obviously won't continue converting on nearly 80% of 3rd downs or possessing the ball for 40 min per game, so at some point they'll likely need a few big plays to win against tougher D's (PSU? Iowa? Wisc? OSU?). The D can probably keep them in most games, but can they win without explosive plays when another team scores 20+?

Another concern I'll not has been the lack of pass rush wins in 1:1 situations so far. I don't think they've been facing elite OLs to this point (and PU isn't either), so whether they can get to the passer later in the season will be a big question.
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Just because we aren't getting sacks it doesn't mean our pass rush is bad.
 

MNVCGUY said:
If the biggest issue they could come up with is not enough 40+ yard plays, then we are definitely doing something right :)
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Right. I think 40 yards seems kind of arbitrary. When you're top of FBS in 10+ yard plays, that can be better than a lot of bigger plays when your whole offensive philosophy is TOP. Moving the chains and taking more time off the clock gives your opponent fewer opportunities to possess the ball.
 



RogueGopher said:
Right. I think 40 yards seems kind of arbitrary. When you're top of FBS in 10+ yard plays, that can be better than a lot of bigger plays when your whole offensive philosophy is TOP. Moving the chains and taking more time off the clock gives your opponent fewer opportunities to possess the ball.
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Maybe KC will toss in some bombs this week just to prove the doubters wrong. Narrative going into last week was Gophers can't pass. Posted in the game thread that the offensive gameplan against MSU was a big middle finger to all the people that said we couldn't throw.

We can throw, we just choose not to because our running game is so good. So maybe this week it will be to prove we can throw bombs we just choose not to. :)
 

There is a big positive to 30-40+ yard plays and that’s you don’t have as many plays needed where you can make mistakes. Turnovers, penalties, etc. I’m not concerned but those really long plays almost for sure result in a score or at worst being in a reasonable field goal range.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Maybe KC will toss in some bombs this week just to prove the doubters wrong. Narrative going into last week was Gophers can't pass. Posted in the game thread that the offensive gameplan against MSU was a big middle finger to all the people that said we couldn't throw.

We can throw, we just choose not to because our running game is so good. So maybe this week it will be to prove we can throw bombs we just choose not to. :)
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Yup, KC has done it vs Purdue before too.
2019 vs Purdue, Tanner threw a 45-yard and 47-yard TD to Bateman and a 70-yard slant TD to CrAB.
 

UpAndUnder43 said:
There is a big positive to 30-40+ yard plays and that’s you don’t have as many plays needed where you can make mistakes. Turnovers, penalties, etc. I’m not concerned but those really long plays almost for sure result in a score or at worst being in a reasonable field goal range.
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It is VERY important to have a disciplined team with the offensive identity that we have!
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
There is a big positive to 30-40+ yard plays and that’s you don’t have as many plays needed where you can make mistakes. Turnovers, penalties, etc. I’m not concerned but those really long plays almost for sure result in a score or at worst being in a reasonable field goal range.
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Yeah, we haven't been in a position where we have needed to go for those quick strike big plays. I guess I would be more concerned if we were taking a bunch of deep shots and missing on them.

Like I said before, if this is the best they can come up with for fatal flaws then we are in a pretty good place.
 

The author isn’t a big fan of Woody Hayes now is he?

Th thing is Minnesota is not three yards and a cloud of dust. Morgan is avg like ten yards per pass attempt! Mo is close to 6 yards per carry!

If your clipping along at these averages without a big home run thrown in there - THATS SCARY AS CRAP FOR DEFENSES!
 

And something else just occurred to me....it would appear we are burying the lead just a little in our reaction to this article.

The big part is that we are being included among ESPN's 16 CFP contenders.
 


I am sensing a label for the Gopher offense. I mean, it is true, there haven't been a lot of 40+ yard plays and that is a difference compared to the 2019 team. And, it is reasonable to think the continual TOP and third down success won't continue at the same levels against most B1G teams.

But, I have never seen anything quite like the theme that this offense has created and the label I referred to above could/should be...

"The 12 yards and a cloud of dust offense"
 


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