Bracketology

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thatjanelpick said:
It'll be South Dakota vs South Dakota St in the Summit finals, and that's a potential bracket-buster. South Dakota won both of their previous meetings. They probably need to win the auto-bid to get into the NCAA tournament, because of their RPI, but South Dakota State might get in, even if they lose to South Dakota a third time, with a 31 RPI (Creme has them not getting in, which seems inconsistent, unless I'm confusing my South Dakotas, which I have been known to do).
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South Dakota State's RPI is 31 and South Dakota's RPI is 62 with nothing to recommend an at large bid. I think Creme is right, that a third loss to South Dakota would be serious enough to keep the Jacks out of the NCAA.
 

I wonder how many 31 RPI teams have missed the tournament (although, come to think of it, that would be lower if SDSU did lose again to South Dakota).
 

thatjanelpick said:
I wonder how many 31 RPI teams have missed the tournament (although, come to think of it, that would be lower if SDSU did lose again to South Dakota).
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Without looking, I'm pretty sure it's not uncommon for mid-majors to be snubbed. I miss the RPI analysis that beknighted (a poster on the Rutgers board) use to write up concerning the NCAA tournament. He did note today during the debate about whether Rutgers should be in: "For what it's worth, the usual cut-off for P5 teams having a really good chance to get into the tourney is around RPI 45."

The Mid-American will be interesting with Buffalo (RPI 19), Central Michigan (RPI 20) and Ball State (RPI 34). Most people have it as a two bid conference.
 

Ignatius L Hoops said:
Without looking, I'm pretty sure it's not uncommon for mid-majors to be snubbed. I miss the RPI analysis that beknighted (a poster on the Rutgers board) use to write up concerning the NCAA tournament. He did note today during the debate about whether Rutgers should be in: "For what it's worth, the usual cut-off for P5 teams having a really good chance to get into the tourney is around RPI 45."

The Mid-American will be interesting with Buffalo (RPI 19), Central Michigan (RPI 20) and Ball State (RPI 34). Most people have it as a two bid conference.
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(and someone on Stollings' staff should consult with those Mid-American teams about how to book an RPI-boosting schedule)
 

http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme must've read janelpick's post about SDSU because Creme shuffled South Dakota State back into the bracket and booted Southern Cal. Of course, I assume he's anticipating a Jack's victory today.


The B1G teams remained unchanged:

3 Ohio State
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Rutgers

Last four in: Minnesota, Creighton, Rutgers, South Dakota State

First four out: Nebraska, Southern Cal, West Virginia, Purdue


South Dakota State's best RPI win was in the early season against #17 N C State (after a slow start the Wolfpack continued to improve). South Dakota State also defeated #33 Oklahoma while losing to Louisville, Green Bay and Creighton.


Speaking of the Sooners, part of the fun of watching the Big 12 championship game was listening to arguments for putting Oklahoma into the field. Their main qualification is that they lost to top #25 RPI teams. But you can't overlook Oklahoma being knocked out of the Big 12 tournament by RPI #69 TCU.
 


Ignatius L Hoops said:
http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme must've read janelpick's post about SDSU because Creme shuffled South Dakota State back into the bracket and booted Southern Cal. Of course, I assume he's anticipating a Jack's victory today.


The B1G teams remained unchanged:

3 Ohio State
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Rutgers

Last four in: Minnesota, Creighton, Rutgers, South Dakota State

First four out: Nebraska, Southern Cal, West Virginia, Purdue


South Dakota State's best RPI win was in the early season against #17 N C State (after a slow start the Wolfpack continued to improve). South Dakota State also defeated #33 Oklahoma while losing to Louisville, Green Bay and Creighton.


Speaking of the Sooners, part of the fun of watching the Big 12 championship game was listening to arguments for putting Oklahoma into the field. Their main qualification is that they lost to top #25 RPI teams. But you can't overlook Oklahoma being knocked out of the Big 12 tournament by RPI #69 TCU.
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So glad Creme has started to pay attention to me.
And I'm so glad you mentioned the announcers' ridiculousness. I get that they're defensive about the possibility that the mighty Big Twelve will only get two or three teams in, but the bracketologymnastics they were having to perform to justify, for instance, the inclusion of Oklahoma -- a team that is just one win over .500 -- was hilarious. Basically, it was, "Yeah, Oklahoma has a terrible record but they lost to really good teams!"
 

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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

As noted last night, Creme moved Nebraska into the field.

The B1G teams are:

3 Ohio State
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Rutgers
11 Nebraska

The last four in: Minnesota, Rutgers, Creighton and Nebraska

The first four out: Southern Cal, West Virginia, Purdue and Oklahoma

The tournaments are winding down as are the scenarios which would bump Minnesota out of the field. Baring an act of historical lunacy the Gophers are in. In that spirit, Stollings announced a public viewing party for Monday night.

Nebraska, however, should remain nervous.

I believe there is only one two bid conference remaining-the MAC. Creme already has two MAC teams in with Central Michigan, Buffalo and Ball State battling it out.

One item of note is that Creme shows Minnesota as a 9 seed after giving them a procedural bump from 10. If I had a choice, I'd prefer to be a 10 seed.
 




I'd be delighted if Creme's projection of a first round matchup with Villanova were to prove true. Minnesota dealt with Georgetown much more effectively than Villanova did.
 

Has anybody done a review of how accurate Creme is in doing these?
 

Shades said:
Has anybody done a review of how accurate Creme is in doing these?
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https://espnmediazone.com/us/press-...gy-conference-call-joe-lunardi-charlie-creme/

Well, last year his only miss was Michigan and he's still "seething" about it. (Emphasis added).

Charlie, what do you think about the Michigan résumé? Obviously they started out having some success and they beat Ohio State on the road, but then near the end they got into a bit of a slump and lost a couple games and then they did beat Maryland, but then again they lost pretty early on in the Big Ten Tournament. What do you think about them?

CC: Michigan’s an interesting team for me. I think they’re in. I actually said awhile ago I thought they were safely in. That win over Maryland I think, I think sealed the deal because it kind of answered some questions that they were having with some losing late in the season and they beat a good team in Maryland. I would have liked to have seen them win a game in the Big Ten Tournament, but that said I think they’re safely in. But then last year, I thought they were a no-brainer to be in the Tournament and the Committee left them out and frankly to this day I’m still seething over that and I think the Committee completely blew it on Michigan last year. Their résumé — in fact, someone asked me, how many did you get wrong last year? And I said well I didn’t get any wrong, the Committee got some wrong. And Michigan was that team.

Unfortunately, they look a lot like they did last year in terms of the season they put together, the kind of strength of schedule they had, how they finished the year. Last year they finished the season poorly too. So, that worries me just a touch. But when you start to measure them up against the other teams that would be in that nine, 10 range, that bubble if you wanted to expand it further, Michigan to me still rates better than all of them. In fact, they rate better than a lot of those teams come from the Big 10, even though for instance Nebraska had a better record and was in the league, but their schedules in the league weren’t the same. So, with the Big Ten especially, you got to look at everything. I think Michigan is the third best team in that league and should be in the field safely. But I’d put an asterisk next to that because last year they also should have been in the field and ended up winning the WNIT instead.


And Creme is remains soft on Nebraska:

Both of the Nebraska men and women’s teams are on the bubble. Can you explain why they’re on the bubble, and why one might be in and the other might be out?

CC: Nebraska is part of that Big Ten mix that is just a big dilemma in that there’s a collection of top-50 wins that lacks impression. It looks like a tournament team when you look at that number, but if you dig deeper none of them are in the top-25. They’re all within the conference, and while Nebraska finished at 11-5 in the league and in third place, their schedule wasn’t as difficult even within the league than some of the other teams in the Big Ten.

Now that all said, I have them in the field just barely because of the way they have played of late. They have improved considerably throughout the season and they have looked like “looked” like a tournament team in the last three weeks or so.

I don’t love the numbers. I mentioned something about how the Committee has looked at strength of schedule in the past, and they did not schedule very well in the non-conference. This is a case where I don’t blame Amy Williams for not scheduling. She had a young team. She was relatively a new coach in the program, and you want to get some wins under your belt. I don’t blame her in the same way I might blame some other coaches around the country for the way they scheduled. But it is what it is, and there’s not a lot there. Nebraska’s actually lost to a couple of other teams on the bubble in that non-conference that they’re going to be competing with or presumably competing with for spots.

Nebraska is my last team in right now and I could wake up tomorrow morning and have a different viewpoint and switch them one spot and they’re out. I don’t have a definitive answer on Nebraska, but those are some of the things that I think will be discussed by the Committee, and there’s arguments certainly on both sides of the fence for it.
 

Interesting to see that he thinks Michigan is currently the third best team in the BIG. I'm presuming that he has OSU and Maryland as the top two. I disagree with him on his assessment. I think that OSU is currently the best team, followed by Minnesota, Iowa, and Maryland. I understand that this current assessment shouldn't affect NCAA seeding, and both Iowa and Maryland deserve to be seeded higher than the Gophers because of RPI and SOS, but if you use the "eye test" on for the last month or so, I'd take the Gophers and Iowa over both Maryland and Michigan. And Creme is right in pointing out that he was right and the Committee was wrong in leaving Michigan out of last year's NCAA tourney.
 



http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Creme's next to last bracketology has seven B1G teams seeded thusly:

3 Ohio State
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
8 Michigan
9 Minnesota
10 Rutgers
11 Nebraska

Last four in with RPI: Rutgers (40), Buffalo (22), Creighton (47) and Nebraska (61)

First four out with RPI: West Virginia (63), Southern Cal (50), Oklahoma (35) and Purdue (62)


The penultimate regular season NCAA RPI rankings:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

Nebraska drops one:

6 Ohio State
18 Maryland
21 Iowa
39 Michigan
40 Rutgers
41 Minnesota

54 Indiana
61 Nebraska
62 Purdue
 

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Then there's this.
 


So Nebraska is probably out and, unbelievably, the Gophers could be out. :mad:

6_DD70_BE4_72_BC_4_AD2_8_F82_4_B094_B5819_EE.jpg
 

Wow, really hammering Gophers and Cornhuskers SOS if this is the case and probably a reflection if what the committee feels about the BIG as a conference overall. I still say towards the end of the year Gophers and Cornhuskers are two of the better teams playing. It really would be a shame if Gophers are left out. But we’ve seen the NCAA in action before-Gopher Softball comes to mind
 

I could certainly be wrong, but I'm still thinking this is more about the drama than it is about reality. Although the Gophers could certainly be in the "final 8" on the bubble, I'm thinking they are safely in. However, if not, it could make for a somber "selection party" tomorrow evening. And, I'll then blame on SOS, which the Gophers had every opportunity to control with their scheduling. Nebraska at least has an excuse for a weak schedule; the Gophers don't.
 

tripledouble said:
I could certainly be wrong, but I'm still thinking this is more about the drama than it is about reality. Although the Gophers could certainly be in the "final 8" on the bubble, I'm thinking they are safely in. However, if not, it could make for a somber "selection party" tomorrow evening. And, I'll then blame on SOS, which the Gophers had every opportunity to control with their scheduling. Nebraska at least has an excuse for a weak schedule; the Gophers don't.
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Hope you are right in an effort to generate more interest in the selection show. Does anyone feel that the committee might have switch Nebraska and Minnesota? Nebraska has been gaining positive momentum from the media during the past week.
 

Comparison of the eight bubble teams with RPI, Strength of Schedule and record in last ten games.

I'd have to say this was one of the dumbest ideas the committee has ever had and that I'm glad I'm not a Nebraska fan (talk about limbo). This exercise helps no one. Anyway, I'm thinking Minnesota, Creighton and Rutgers are in. The fourth spot comes down to Buffalo and Purdue with the advantage going to Purdue because they beat Central Michigan. (BUT! Felisha Legette-Jack screams, "Purdue also lost to Ball State and Ohio"; so there's also that). Now watch them pick Oklahoma because, as janelpick pointed out, the Sooners lost to a lot of good teams.

22 Buffalo 98 (9-1)
Top 25 wins C. Mich
26-50 Wins: None
Worst Loss (233) Niagra

35 Oklahoma 2 (6-4)
Top 25 wins: S. Florida
26-50 wins: None
Worst Loss: (176) Florida

40 Rutgers 16 (3-7)
Top 25 wins: N.C State
26-50 wins: Princeton, Virgina, Michigan, Minnesota
Worst Loss (175) Northwestern

41 Minnesota 100 (7-3)
Top 25 wins: Maryland, Iowa, Iowa
26-50 wins; Mich
Worst Loss (163) San Diego

47 Creighton 29 (6-4)
Top 25 wins; Marquette
26-50 wins; South Dakota State, Villanova
Worst Loss (198) Washington

50 Southern Cal 47 (5-5)
Top 25 wins: None
26-50 wins; Oregon State
Worst Loss: (43) California

62 Purdue 22 (5-5)
Top 25 wins; C. Mich, Maryland, Iowa
26-50 wins; Michigan, Rutgers
Worst Loss (117) Ohio


63 West Virginia 61 (4-6)
Top 25 Wins: Texas A&M
26-50 Wins; Drexel
Worst Loss (88) Kansas State
 

Charlie Creme did a aftermath update, and not only does he now have Nebraska IN he moved them up to the exact same spot Minnesota was and then moved Minnesota down to a #10 seed in the Mississippi St bracket with Texas being the next opponent should they get by Miami. That’s cool with me. I’d like being an underrated #11 seed even better.
 

16-14 Oklahoma is in... guess the men and women committees think the same
 

Minnesota is in vs Green Bay. Winner most likely get 2 seed Oregon.
 



Ok Ladies you made it. Now show the committee not only did you deserve it that you gonna make some noise!
 

I like the match-ups. I like getting in even better.

Oklahoma, again; must be money involved. I thought Aubrey Mcclendon was dead.
 


Was hoping for a later tip with the game on the west coast.

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