SleepingGiant
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10. Every week, a new Minnesota
In my Big Ten West preview, I noted just how ridiculously up-and-down PJ Fleck's 2018 Minnesota Golden Gophers were. They beat Purdue, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech (bowl teams, all) by a combined 77 points and lost to Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois (13 combined wins) by 78. They won their first three games and four of their last six but lost four straight by at least 16 points each in between.
They even befuddled Vegas. Minnesota overachieved by at least 14 points against the spread five times and underachieved by at least 10 points five times.
In all, the spread was off by at least three touchdowns, one way or the other, six times in 13 games. It was off by 33.5 points in the loss to Illinois and by 43.5 points in the win over Purdue. On average, Vegas was off by 20.1 points per game.
Largest average absolute error, Vegas vs. team outcomes: Minnesota (20.1 points per game), Duke (19.5), Old Dominion (18.9), Wake Forest (18.8), Purdue (18.5), Army (18.2), Louisville (18.0), Virginia Tech (17.8), East Carolina (17.7), North Texas (17.3).
The Gophers were one of the youngest teams in the country, which would explain a decent amount of the volatility. But a pro tip for you: Maybe avoid betting on Minnesota games for a bit until we see how volatile things are, or aren't, this fall. And since there were four ACC teams also on the above list, maybe avoid that entire league, too.
In my Big Ten West preview, I noted just how ridiculously up-and-down PJ Fleck's 2018 Minnesota Golden Gophers were. They beat Purdue, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech (bowl teams, all) by a combined 77 points and lost to Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois (13 combined wins) by 78. They won their first three games and four of their last six but lost four straight by at least 16 points each in between.
They even befuddled Vegas. Minnesota overachieved by at least 14 points against the spread five times and underachieved by at least 10 points five times.
In all, the spread was off by at least three touchdowns, one way or the other, six times in 13 games. It was off by 33.5 points in the loss to Illinois and by 43.5 points in the win over Purdue. On average, Vegas was off by 20.1 points per game.
Largest average absolute error, Vegas vs. team outcomes: Minnesota (20.1 points per game), Duke (19.5), Old Dominion (18.9), Wake Forest (18.8), Purdue (18.5), Army (18.2), Louisville (18.0), Virginia Tech (17.8), East Carolina (17.7), North Texas (17.3).
The Gophers were one of the youngest teams in the country, which would explain a decent amount of the volatility. But a pro tip for you: Maybe avoid betting on Minnesota games for a bit until we see how volatile things are, or aren't, this fall. And since there were four ACC teams also on the above list, maybe avoid that entire league, too.
