Big XII & SEC Sitting Pretty One Month from Selection Sunday

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SelectionSunday

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ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – One month from Selection Sunday, the Big XII and SEC sport 9 NCAA Tournament bids in our latest Field of 68 projection. The surging Mountain West is next with 6, while the Big East and Big Ten check in with 5. Other conferences boasting multiple bids are the ACC (4), Pac 12 (3), American (2), and WCC (2).

The last team in?

Mississippi State.

The first team out?

Seton Hall.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best NET ranking.

WEEK #15 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Feb. 18)
America East (1): Vermont (104)

American (2): USF (92), FAU (29)

ACC (4): North Carolina (9), Duke (17), Clemson (27), Virginia (41)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (199)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (19)

Big East (5): UConn (4), Creighton (13), Marquette (14), Butler (57), Providence (59)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (122)

Big South (1): High Point (111)

Big Ten (5): Purdue (2), Illinois (12), Michigan State (20), Wisconsin (21), Northwestern (56)

Big XII (9): Houston (1), Iowa State (8), BYU (10), Baylor (11), Kansas (16), Texas Tech (26), Texas (33), TCU (36), Oklahoma (39)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (80)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (116)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (85)

Horizon (1): Oakland (124)

Ivy (1): Yale (82)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (163)

MAC (1): Akron (93)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (224)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (32)

Mountain West (6): San Diego State (18), New Mexico (24), Colorado State (25), Utah State (30), Boise State (43), Nevada (44)

NEC (1): Merrimack (202)

OVC (1): Morehead State (115)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (3), Washington State (31), Utah (50)

Patriot (1): Colgate (127)

SEC (9): Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Auburn (7), Kentucky (22), Florida (28), Mississippi State (38), Texas A&M (45), South Carolina (58), Ole Miss (65)

SoCon (1): Samford (66)

Southland (1): McNeese (52)

SWAC (1): Southern U (196)

Summit (1): North Dakota (237)

Sun Belt (1): Appalachian State (76)

WCC (2): Saint Mary’s (15), Gonzaga (23)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (48)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Gonzaga (23), Utah (50), Ole Miss (65), Mississippi State (38)

First 4 Out: Seton Hall (63), Villanova (35), Nebraska (49), Drake (46)

8 to Watch: SMU (34), Cincinnati (37), Wake Forest (40), Colorado (42), Pitt (47), JMU (55), Oregon (61), NC State (75)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Gonzaga (23), New Mexico (24), Colorado State (25), FAU (29), Utah State (30), Boise State (43), Nevada (44)

Current Bid-Stealers (1): USF

Moving In (9): Appalachian State, College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Norfolk State, North Dakota, Oakland, Ole Miss, Providence, Southern U

Dropping Out (9): Grambling, Green Bay, Memphis, NCCU, Richmond, Sam Houston, South Dakota State, Troy, UNC-Wilmington

** records indicated below are vs. Division 1 opponents only

Summit League Power Rankings
1 North Dakota (14-11)
2 South Dakota State (12-12)
3 St. Thomas (14-10)
4 Kansas City (9-15)
5 Denver (11-13)
6 Omaha (9-15)
7 North Dakota State (10-14)
8 ORU (8-15)
9 South Dakota (7-17)

Big Ten Power Rankings
1 Purdue (23-3)
2 Illinois (19-6)
3 Michigan State (17-9)
4 Northwestern (18-8)
5 Nebraska (18-8)
6 Wisconsin (17-9)
7 Iowa (15-11)
8 Minnesota (16-9)
9 Rutgers (14-11)
10 Ohio State (15-11)
11 Maryland (14-12)
12 Penn State (12-14)
13 Indiana (14-11)
14 Michigan (8-18)

Big Ten Wins vs. NET Top 50 Opponents
Purdue (7) – 1 home, 1 road, 5 neutral
Wisconsin (6) – 3 home, 1 road, 2 neutral
Northwestern (5) – 5 home
Illinois (3) – 2 home, 1 neutral
Michigan State (3) – 2 home, 1 neutral
Nebraska (3) – 3 home
Iowa (2) – 2 home
Maryland (2) – 1 home, 1 road
Minnesota (2) – 2 home
Ohio State (2) – 1 home, 1 neutral
Rutgers (2) – 2 home
Michigan (1) – 1 home
Penn State (1) – 1 home
Indiana (0)

State of Minnesota in the Rankings
NET: Minnesota #77, St. Thomas #151
KenPom: Minnesota #67, St. Thomas #148
Haslametrics: Minnesota #63, St. Thomas #148
 

Back when the big ten conference was dominating everyone non conference, such as the precious 5 years or so to this one…I think the 20 game conference schedule helped the big ten.

Do you think this year the 20 game conference schedule is hurting the big ten this year?
 

Through Sunday, February 18 games (vs. = neutral site)

NET Top 50 Wins by Projected NCAA Tournament Teams (multiple-bid conferences only)
Kansas (9): Baylor, Cin, Houston, vs. Kentucky, Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma, vs. Tenn, TCU, UConn
Arizona (8): vs. Alabama, Colorado, @ Colorado, @ Duke, vs. Mich State, Utah, @ Utah, Wisconsin
Houston (8): @ BYU, @ Cincinnati, vs. Dayton, Texas, @ Texas, vs. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, vs. Utah
Baylor (7): vs. Auburn, BYU, Cincinnati, vs. Florida, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Iowa State (7): @ Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas, @ Texas, TCU, @ TCU, Texas Tech
Purdue (7): vs. Alabama, vs. Arizona, vs. Gonzaga, Illinois, vs. Marquette, vs. Tenn, @ Wisconsin
Colorado State (6): Boise State, Colorado, vs. Creighton, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah State
Marquette (6): Creighton, @ Illinois, vs. Kansas, Texas, Villanova, @ Villanova
North Carolina (6): @ Clemson, Duke, vs. Oklahoma, @ Pitt, Tennessee, Wake Forest
San Diego State (6): Colorado State, @ Gonzaga, Nevada, New Mexico, vs. Saint Mary's, Utah State
UConn (6): Creighton, vs. Gonzaga, vs. Marquette, North Carolina, vs. Texas, @ Villanova
Wisconsin (6): Marquette, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Nebraska, vs. SMU, vs. Virginia
Alabama (5): Auburn, Indiana State, Mississippi State, @ Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Boise State (5): Colorado State, @ Nevada, @ New Mexico, vs. Saint Mary's, San Diego State
Butler (5): vs. Boise State, @ Creighton, @ Marquette, Texas Tech, Villanova
Clemson (5): @ Alabama, Boise State, @ North Carolina, Pitt, vs. TCU
Duke (5): vs. Baylor, Clemson, vs. Michigan State, @ Pitt, Wake Forest
Northwestern (5): Dayton, Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue
Tennessee (5): Alabama, Florida, Illinois, @ Kentucky, @ Wisconsin
Texas A&M (5): Florida, vs. Iowa State, Kentucky, @ SMU, Tennessee
Utah (5): BYU, Colorado, @ Saint Mary's, vs. Wake Forest, Washington State
Florida (4): Auburn, @ Kentucky, Mississippi State, vs. Pitt
Kentucky (4): @ Auburn, @ Florida, Mississippi State, vs. North Carolina
Nevada (4): Colorado State, San Diego State, vs. TCU, @ Utah State
New Mexico (4): Nevada, @ Nevada, San Diego State, Utah State
South Carolina (4): vs. Grand Canyon, Kentucky, Mississippi State, @ Tennessee
Texas (4): Baylor, @ Cincinnati, @ Oklahoma, @ TCU
TCU (4): @ Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Texas Tech (4): BYU, Kansas, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas
Virginia (4): @ Clemson, vs. Florida, Texas A&M, Wake Forest
Washington State (4): Arizona, vs. Boise State, Colorado, Utah
BYU (3): Iowa State, San Diego State, Texas
Illinois (3): vs. FAU, Michigan State, Nebraska
Michigan State (3): vs. Baylor, Illinois, Indiana State
Mississippi State (3): Auburn, Tennessee, vs. Washington State
Oklahoma (3): BYU, @ Cincinnati, Iowa State
Ole Miss (3): Florida, Mississippi State, @ Texas A&M
Providence (3): Creighton, Marquette, Wisconsin
Saint Mary's (3): @ Colorado State, @ Gonzaga, New Mexico
Utah State (3): Boise State, @ Boise State, Colorado State
Auburn (2): Alabama, Texas A&M
Creighton (2): Alabama, @ Nebraska
FAU (2): vs. Arizona, vs. Texas A&M
Gonzaga (1): @ Kentucky
USF (1): FAU

First 4 Out
Nebraska (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Villanova (3): @ Creighton, vs. North Carolina, vs. Texas Tech
Drake (2): Indiana State, vs. Nevada
Seton Hall (2): Marquette, UConn
 

Some guy said:
Back when the big ten conference was dominating everyone non conference, such as the precious 5 years or so to this one…I think the 20 game conference schedule helped the big ten.

Do you think this year the 20 game conference schedule is hurting the big ten this year?
Click to expand...
Not a lot of high quality wins outside of conference play. And the ones they did have were mostly shared by three teams (Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State).
 

SelectionSunday said:
Not a lot of high quality wins outside of conference play. And the ones they did have were mostly shared by three teams (Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State).
Click to expand...
And since there are 20 games there are guaranteed an extra 14 losses compared to an 18 game schedule and an extra 28 losses compared to a 16 game schedule.

Which in the past could be accommodated for because you’re going to play all those quad 1 games and pick up no bad losses and a few quality wins. But this year there aren’t really quality wins to be had outside of Purdue and Wisconsin and you aren’t losing quad 1 games you’re losing quad 2 games.

Gophers 1-5 vs Quad 1 this year. That has to be a lot fewer quad 1 games than previous years the gophers were near .500 in the conference right?
 


SelectionSunday said:
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – One month from Selection Sunday, the Big XII and SEC sport 9 NCAA Tournament bids in our latest Field of 68 projection. The surging Mountain West is next with 6, while the Big East and Big Ten check in with 5. Other conferences boasting multiple bids are the ACC (4), Pac 12 (3), American (2), and WCC (2).

The last team in?

Mississippi State.

The first team out?

Seton Hall.

The automatic qualifiers from multiple-bid conferences are listed first. The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best NET ranking.

WEEK #15 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Feb. 18)
America East (1): Vermont (104)

American (2): USF (92), FAU (29)

ACC (4): North Carolina (9), Duke (17), Clemson (27), Virginia (41)

ASUN (1): Eastern Kentucky (199)

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton (19)

Big East (5): UConn (4), Creighton (13), Marquette (14), Butler (57), Providence (59)

Big Sky (1): Eastern Washington (122)

Big South (1): High Point (111)

Big Ten (5): Purdue (2), Illinois (12), Michigan State (20), Wisconsin (21), Northwestern (56)

Big XII (9): Houston (1), Iowa State (8), BYU (10), Baylor (11), Kansas (16), Texas Tech (26), Texas (33), TCU (36), Oklahoma (39)

Big West (1): UC-Irvine (80)

Colonial (1): College of Charleston (116)

Conference USA (1): Louisiana Tech (85)

Horizon (1): Oakland (124)

Ivy (1): Yale (82)

MAAC (1): Quinnipiac (163)

MAC (1): Akron (93)

MEAC (1): Norfolk State (224)

Missouri Valley (1): Indiana State (32)

Mountain West (6): San Diego State (18), New Mexico (24), Colorado State (25), Utah State (30), Boise State (43), Nevada (44)

NEC (1): Merrimack (202)

OVC (1): Morehead State (115)

Pac 12 (3): Arizona (3), Washington State (31), Utah (50)

Patriot (1): Colgate (127)

SEC (9): Alabama (5), Tennessee (6), Auburn (7), Kentucky (22), Florida (28), Mississippi State (38), Texas A&M (45), South Carolina (58), Ole Miss (65)

SoCon (1): Samford (66)

Southland (1): McNeese (52)

SWAC (1): Southern U (196)

Summit (1): North Dakota (237)

Sun Belt (1): Appalachian State (76)

WCC (2): Saint Mary’s (15), Gonzaga (23)

WAC (1): Grand Canyon (48)
___________________________
Last 4 In: Gonzaga (23), Utah (50), Ole Miss (65), Mississippi State (38)

First 4 Out: Seton Hall (63), Villanova (35), Nebraska (49), Drake (46)

8 to Watch: SMU (34), Cincinnati (37), Wake Forest (40), Colorado (42), Pitt (47), JMU (55), Oregon (61), NC State (75)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (7): Gonzaga (23), New Mexico (24), Colorado State (25), FAU (29), Utah State (30), Boise State (43), Nevada (44)

Current Bid-Stealers (1): USF

Moving In (9): Appalachian State, College of Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Norfolk State, North Dakota, Oakland, Ole Miss, Providence, Southern U

Dropping Out (9): Grambling, Green Bay, Memphis, NCCU, Richmond, Sam Houston, South Dakota State, Troy, UNC-Wilmington

** records indicated below are vs. Division 1 opponents only

Summit League Power Rankings
1 North Dakota (14-11)
2 South Dakota State (12-12)
3 St. Thomas (14-10)
4 Kansas City (9-15)
5 Denver (11-13)
6 Omaha (9-15)
7 North Dakota State (10-14)
8 ORU (8-15)
9 South Dakota (7-17)

Big Ten Power Rankings
1 Purdue (23-3)
2 Illinois (19-6)
3 Michigan State (17-9)
4 Northwestern (18-8)
5 Nebraska (18-8)
6 Wisconsin (17-9)
7 Iowa (15-11)
8 Minnesota (16-9)
9 Rutgers (14-11)
10 Ohio State (15-11)
11 Maryland (14-12)
12 Penn State (12-14)
13 Indiana (14-11)
14 Michigan (8-18)

Big Ten Wins vs. NET Top 50 Opponents
Purdue (7) – 1 home, 1 road, 5 neutral
Wisconsin (6) – 3 home, 1 road, 2 neutral
Northwestern (5) – 5 home
Illinois (3) – 2 home, 1 neutral
Michigan State (3) – 2 home, 1 neutral
Nebraska (3) – 3 home
Iowa (2) – 2 home
Maryland (2) – 1 home, 1 road
Minnesota (2) – 2 home
Ohio State (2) – 1 home, 1 neutral
Rutgers (2) – 2 home
Michigan (1) – 1 home
Penn State (1) – 1 home
Indiana (0)

State of Minnesota in the Rankings
NET: Minnesota #77, St. Thomas #151
KenPom: Minnesota #67, St. Thomas #148
Haslametrics: Minnesota #63, St. Thomas #148
Click to expand...
Was the Rutgers bubble talk baloney?
 

Why has Nebraska fallen off to the wrong side of the bubble? Is it mostly because they've been holding the course, winning home games and losing road games, while other bubble teams are earning their way in with big wins? Or because their win against Wisconsin is losing its luster now that the Badgers have gone on a skid? I thought I'd seen Nebraska solidly in as maybe a 10 seed recently, so I'm wondering what's changed.
 





Cayman said:
Why has Nebraska fallen off to the wrong side of the bubble? Is it mostly because they've been holding the course, winning home games and losing road games, while other bubble teams are earning their way in with big wins? Or because their win against Wisconsin is losing its luster now that the Badgers have gone on a skid? I thought I'd seen Nebraska solidly in as maybe a 10 seed recently, so I'm wondering what's changed.
Click to expand...
Cornhuskers are right there, most have them projected "in" at this point, but I'm on hold because of the Big Ten road record (0-7). That has to change.

Remaining road games are Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan. I'd suggest they win at least 2 of those, and if they do, they should be in real good shape. That would round their resume into form. ... good home wins vs. teams likely in the field (Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern), along with a solid non-conference road win (Kansas State).
 



Yep, Rutgers needed a win in the Barn badly to make it realistic. Now they need to pull off some magic or go on a run in the BTT. Too bad they lost Spencer...

One problem I have with the tier system is that if you split with a team you play twice, the tier system rewards you for winning on the road vs winning at home. If the team is ranked at say 40 you get a tier 1 W for winning on the road while winning vs the same team at home is only tier 2. I get it somewhat, as winning road games is noteworthy, but the home loss doesn't remove that "luster" like it should.
 



SelectionSunday said:
Cornhuskers are right there, most have them projected "in" at this point, but I'm on hold because of the Big Ten road record (0-7). That has to change.

Remaining road games are Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan. I'd suggest they win at least 2 of those, and if they do, they should be in real good shape. That would round their resume into form. ... good home wins vs. teams likely in the field (Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern), along with a solid non-conference road win (Kansas State).
Click to expand...
I think they may get in even if they win just 1 of the 3 on the road even given the opponents, so long as they win out at home. The road record is a blemish for sure, but as you said most already have them in, and they look the part. We'll see.
 

dlnavra said:
I think they may get in even if they win just 1 of the 3 on the road even given the opponents, so long as they win out at home. The road record is a blemish for sure, but as you said most already have them in, and they look the part. We'll see.
Click to expand...
That's very fair. I think they'll win at Indiana on Wednesday night, and that should take a lot of pressure off.
 


If the Gophers win both games this week, for the very first time they'll make an appearance on my "under consideration" list. Wouldn't be close to the field, but certainly worth monitoring down the stretch.
 

Not sure when you will get to your next update, but both Oklahoma and Texas are playing with 🔥. Their upcoming games are critical IMO. I don't know which teams you put in to the field to replace them, but I can't see the committee rewarding Texas with a bid with their approach to NC scheduling if they end up at 8-10 or 7-11 in league play.
 

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