Big Ten Title Game Scenarios?

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joekulas12

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Okay, I know this is a huge long shot, but just curious if anyone knows a scenario where we reach the Big Ten Title Game. Obviously, we need to win out, and get some help, but I'm curious what all the other factors need to be if this is even possible.
 

Honestly, I'm not going to even let myself have the thought unless we clear Illinois, and then Penn state. It's such an extreme long shot.
You would realistically need Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State to all drop a couple to even get in the conversation.
 

Assuming we win out: We'd need Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State to lose one more game, Ohio State to lose two, then either Oregon loses two or Indiana loses three, could possibly only need two depending on how our opponents records stack up. I could be wrong, but I believe that if those things happen the Gophers would be going to Indianapolis
 

Mr. 131 said:
Honestly, I'm not going to even let myself have the thought unless we clear Illinois, and then Penn state. It's such an extreme long shot.
You would realistically need Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State to all drop a couple to even get in the conversation.
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It is a very long shot, yes.

But...

You would not need ALL of those teams to lose two games.

There will be two teams in the title game, Team 1 and Team 2. Let's say Oregon wins out, and remains undefeated. That puts them in the title game as Team 1. That means Minnesota would have to edge out the other three. Also, remember that the main concern is losses in conference games only. Minnesota has only 2 losses in the B1G. And Ohio State already has one B1G loss.

Here are the remaining games for the teams we would have to beat out in that scenario:

OHIO STATE: at Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan

INDIANA: at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State, Purdue

PENN STATE: Ohio State, Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland

Oh, and Iowa would have to lose one more game, because they beat us head-to-head. Yikes.

Those other three teams do have to play each other. Somebody has to lose in each of those head-to-head matchups. AND, Minnesota has the opportunity to inflict a loss on Penn State.

No matter what, Minnesota has to win out, though. That's a very tough assignment.
 




in short, there's 5 teams you'd need to lose. Easiest is just to become a huge purdue fan as they still play multiple of these teams. All coupled with MN winning out (which would give WI their add'l loss to finish behind us)

Oregon: loss to 2/3 of MD, WI, WA (we would move ahead based on record vs like opponents)
Indiana (must lose at least 2, would need to calculate like opponents but would need them to lose to michigan since like opponent): they would actually be the simplest to just have win out
PSU (must lose at least 1 other as we would hold h2h): beat OSU, lose to MN and any of Wash, Purdue, MD
OSU (must lose at least 2, would need to calculate like opponents): loss to PSU, loss to any of Michigan, Purdue, NW, Indy
Michigan (lost h2h): lose to Oregon this weekend; root for them to then win the rest
Iowa (lost h2h): lose to anyone

It's not that hard to come up with scenarios. It's just that so many of them are EXCEEDINGLY unlikely but yes we are mathematically still alive.
 

Unlikely any shot at the title game. Ties would likely come down to strength of schedule. USC and Michigan do not help our SOS at this time.

tOSU has PSU, Indiana and Oregon on resume
 

RememberMurray said:
It is a very long shot, yes.

But...

You would not need ALL of those teams to lose two games.

There will be two teams in the title game, Team 1 and Team 2. Let's say Oregon wins out, and remains undefeated. That puts them in the title game as Team 1. That means Minnesota would have to edge out the other three. Also, remember that the main concern is losses in conference games only. Minnesota has only 2 losses in the B1G. And Ohio State already has one B1G loss.

Here are the remaining games for the teams we would have to beat out in that scenario:

OHIO STATE: at Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan

INDIANA: at Michigan State, Michigan, at Ohio State, Purdue

PENN STATE: Ohio State, Washington, at Purdue, at Minnesota, Maryland

Oh, and Iowa would have to lose one more game, because they beat us head-to-head. Yikes.

Those other three teams do have to play each other. Somebody has to lose in each of those head-to-head matchups. AND, Minnesota has the opportunity to inflict a loss on Penn State.

No matter what, Minnesota has to win out, though. That's a very tough assignment.
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Much respect for the investigating you did to give us concrete answers. I knew I was playing fast and loose. It just feels so unlikely that scrutinizing the numbers didn't feel worth it to me. That said, I appreciate at least knowing the path, even if I won't allow myself to fantasize without at least a couple more W's.... now, that doesn't mean I won't be peeking at B1G standings every Saturday with deep-down curiosity!
 



We have about the same chance as the Vikings had with Buffalo having 1st and 10 at their own 1 yard line.

Maybe less.
 

upnorthkid said:
in short, there's 5 teams you'd need to lose. Easiest is just to become a huge purdue fan as they still play multiple of these teams. All coupled with MN winning out (which would give WI their add'l loss to finish behind us)

Oregon: loss to 2/3 of MD, WI, WA (we would move ahead based on record vs like opponents)
Indiana (must lose at least 2, would need to calculate like opponents but would need them to lose to michigan since like opponent): they would actually be the simplest to just have win out
PSU (must lose at least 1 other as we would hold h2h): beat OSU, lose to MN and any of Wash, Purdue, MD
OSU (must lose at least 2, would need to calculate like opponents): loss to PSU, loss to any of Michigan, Purdue, NW, Indy
Michigan (lost h2h): lose to Oregon this weekend; root for them to then win the rest
Iowa (lost h2h): lose to anyone

It's not that hard to come up with scenarios. It's just that so many of them are EXCEEDINGLY unlikely but yes we are mathematically still alive.
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Premise One: Gophers win out. Unlikely, but possible. That would mean we're 7-2 in the B1G.

Remember, 2 teams get to the title game, not just one. Therefore it's okay for one team to finish ahead of us. So — let's just say Oregon remains undefeated, for argument's sake. That's one team, but only 1, ahead of us.

Also, consider this: Wisconsin and Iowa play each other this Saturday. Somebody will lose that game. Since we still have an upcoming game against Wisconsin, I'm rooting for the Badgers to beat the Hawkeyes.

And: Ohio State already has 1 B1G loss. I'm not sure they would need to lose 2 more; it depends on tie-breakers.
 

RememberMurray said:
Premise One: Gophers win out. Unlikely, but possible. That would mean we're 7-2 in the B1G.

Remember, 2 teams get to the title game, not just one. Therefore it's okay for one team to finish ahead of us. So — let's just say Oregon remains undefeated, for argument's sake. That's one team, but only 1, ahead of us.

Also, consider this: Wisconsin and Iowa play each other this Saturday. Somebody will lose that game. Since we still have an upcoming game against Wisconsin, I'm rooting for the Badgers to beat the Hawkeyes.

And: Ohio State already has 1 B1G loss. I'm not sure they would need to lose 2 more; it depends on tie-breakers.
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Yep 5 teams to lose with 6 listed. Wisconsin is implied as eliminated as only way gophs make it is they win out which includes beating WI. OSU will need to lose 2. If we were going to stay with just one, it must lose to Michigan for record against like opponents and due to better SOS with PSU and Oregon on the schedule in addition to already beating Iowa. We’d have the win against PSU to balance out the Iowa L but think they still get in with better overall record from conf opponents
 

upnorthkid said:
Yep 5 teams to lose with 6 listed. Wisconsin is implied as eliminated as only way gophs make it is they win out which includes beating WI. OSU will need to lose 2. If we were going to stay with just one, it must lose to Michigan for record against like opponents and due to better SOS with PSU and Oregon on the schedule in addition to already beating Iowa. We’d have the win against PSU to balance out the Iowa L but think they still get in with better overall record from conf opponents
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If we win out, we'd be 7-2 in conference.

If Ohio State loses just one more, they would also be 7-2 in conference — they already have 1 loss.

That would be a tie, and I'm not sure how the tie-breakers work.
 



RememberMurray said:
If we win out, we'd be 7-2 in conference.

If Ohio State loses just one more, they would also be 7-2 in conference — they already have 1 loss.

That would be a tie, and I'm not sure how the tie-breakers work.
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h2h then record vs like opponents. they have beaten IA and we lost. If they lose to just michigan, they will have the win over IA and PSU as a tiebreaker (we'd be 1-2). same as if they just lose to PSU. we need them to lose twice.
 

I have been told it’s better not be close but not make title game for playoff bid implications

Don’t want to take a loss in the title game
 

upnorthkid said:
h2h then record vs like opponents. they have beaten IA and we lost. If they lose to just michigan, they will have the win over IA and PSU as a tiebreaker (we'd be 1-2). same as if they just lose to PSU. we need them to lose twice.
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Is this fact or assumption, as to which tie-breakers would apply? Do you have a source?

I'm not doubting you, but if the tie-breakers have been posted somewhere I'd like to read them.
 

RememberMurray said:
Is this fact or assumption, as to which tie-breakers would apply? Do you have a source?

I'm not doubting you, but if the tie-breakers have been posted somewhere I'd like to read them.
Click to expand...


The gophers best chance is to go 7-2 and end up in a multiple way tie that slowly eliminates team after team, and then eventually they win.

So like, head to head there are some teams the gophers won’t beat in a tiebreaker but could beat them in a multi way tiebreaker by them being eliminated, then restarting tie-break process, then ending up in a two way tie with Penn state, for instance
 

Some guy said:


The gophers best chance is to go 7-2 and end up in a multiple way tie that slowly eliminates team after team, and then eventually they win.

So like, head to head there are some teams the gophers won’t beat in a tiebreaker but could beat them in a multi way tiebreaker by them being eliminated, then restarting tie-break process, then ending up in a two way tie with Penn state, for instance
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1730165037953.jpeg
 

Some guy said:


The gophers best chance is to go 7-2 and end up in a multiple way tie that slowly eliminates team after team, and then eventually they win.

So like, head to head there are some teams the gophers won’t beat in a tiebreaker but could beat them in a multi way tiebreaker by them being eliminated, then restarting tie-break process, then ending up in a two way tie with Penn state, for instance
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yeah this one i'm not going to try math on as too many variables. But then for sure need IA and MI to drop out given the H2H losses though that also gets very very messy the more teams tie given it's h2h and then record vs like intraconference opponents. #3 being record vs record vs the common opponent with the best record is kind of a weird next one to throw in and if MI and IA are the next highest, we're going to drop those comps. In all honesty, getting Indy to 2 losses is going to be pretty tough and one of those losses has to be to Michigan. Otherwise going to need Oregon to drop this weekend's game to MI.

Again all this is fun to talk about even though it statistically incredibly improbable we even win out to where its a question
 

Won't happen no matter what scenarios play out. If we are anywhere near that conversation, and OSU, Michigan, or Penn State are also in the mix... the officials will make sure to call some make believe targeting foul on us, on a 4th and 17 play that should have clinched the ball game vs PSU. The Lions will miraculously get new life and score with 3 seconds left. Don't worry though. After the game, the BIG will promise to implement a new system to review calls like that in the 2025 season.
 

upnorthkid said:
yeah this one i'm not going to try math on as too many variables. But then for sure need IA and MI to drop out given the H2H losses though that also gets very very messy the more teams tie given it's h2h and then record vs like intraconference opponents. #3 being record vs record vs the common opponent with the best record is kind of a weird next one to throw in and if MI and IA are the next highest, we're going to drop those comps. In all honesty, getting Indy to 2 losses is going to be pretty tough and one of those losses has to be to Michigan. Otherwise going to need Oregon to drop this weekend's game to MI.

Again all this is fun to talk about even though it statistically incredibly improbable we even win out to where its a question
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Why would we need Oregon to lose?
 

The Gophers have already lost to two B1G teams who are in the hunt: Iowa and Michigan.

This Saturday, Michigan plays Oregon, and Iowa plays Wisconsin.

If the Wolverines and Hawkeyes both lose, and the Gophers beat Illinois, Minnesota will be one game ahead of both Michigan and Iowa in the conference standings. At that point, tiebreakers would no longer be an issue with those two teams, assuming Minnesota then wins out..
 


Here's the scenario:

Oregon beats Michigan
Wisconsin beats Iowa
Ohio State beats Penn State
Michigan and Michigan State beat Indiana
Indiana beats Ohio State
Minnesoata wins out

1. Oregon 9-0
2. Minnesota 7-2 (1-0)
3. Indiana 7-2 (1-0)
4. Ohio State 7-2 (1-1)
5. Penn State 7-2 (0-2)

Leaves Indiana and Minnesota for #2. Both 2-1 in common games. Go to next tiebreaker...

"The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings."

And then...

"The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents"
 
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A meteor shower that wipes out Eugene, OR; Columbus, OH; Bloomington, IN; and State College, PA might be required.
 

Hard for this one to get past this weekend in Champaign. That offered, appreciate the thinking and will come back to this thread over the remaining life of the regular season. Ski U Mah.
 

My guess is:
Oregon 9-0

Indiana- at MSU, host MI, at tOSU, host Pur = 7-2 at worst IMO
PSU- host tOSU, host WA, at PUR, at MN, host Maryland= 7-2 at worst
tOSU- at PSU, host PUR, at NW, host IN, host MI= 6-3 at worst

5 teams already have 2 losses Illinois, Iowa, MI, MN, WI (We play them all and have lost to 2)
3 teams already have 3 losses (We don't play any of them) NE, MSU, WA

Best scenario is to tie at 7-2 with IN, tOSU and PSU, with a H2H over PSU.

However if tOSU beats PSU and IN they likely go 8-1
if IN beats tOSU, they likely go 8-1 or 9-0
If PSU beats tOSU, they likely go 9-0 or 8-1.

None of our competition has Illinois, Iowa or WI left to play.
 
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upnorthkid said:
If you’re not getting Indy to 2 losses so you need Oregon to drop games. Look at their schedule. Tough to find 2 Ls for Indy.
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They’re losing to Michigan state Saturday if their QB doesn’t play
 

Some guy said:
They’re losing to Michigan state Saturday if their QB doesn’t play
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Idk what you watched on Saturday that makes you think Michigan State is going to win that game. Even with the backup qb Indiana is still vastly less one dimensional than Michigan. Unless they turn it over multiple times, just have a hard time seeing it
 

RogueGopher said:
Here's the scenario:

Oregon beats Michigan
Wisconsin beats Iowa
Ohio State beats Penn State
Michigan and Michigan State beat Indiana
Indiana beats Ohio State
Minnesoata wins out

1. Oregon 9-0
2. Minnesota 7-2 (2-0)
3. Indiana 7-2 (1-0)
4. Ohio State 7-2 (1-1)
5. Penn State 7-2 (1-2)
6. Wisconsin 7-2 (0-2)

Leaves Indiana and Minnesota for #2. Both 2-1 in common games. Go to next tiebreaker...

"The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings."

And then...

"The records of the two tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents"
Click to expand...

I like it.

One small quibble: you have Wisconsin at 7-2. As of today, Wisconsin has 2 losses in the B1G; they already lost to USC and to Penn State. So, if Minnesota wins out we would be handing the Badgers their third loss. They'd end up 6-3 at best.
 

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