Big-Ten Ranking 2019-2020

[CutDownTheNet]

(Edit: For Creme’s Tuesday update to get in synch with committee reveal. Nebraska goes from in to out.)

As of 2/3/2020, with 7 games left in our Big-Ten season, here’s the Big-Ten Conference ranking and games back (with overall record acting as tie breaker).

Team (AP Rank) Conf (GB) Creme Rank
Iowa (#20) 9-2 (-) #9-12 (update: #13-16)
Northwestern (#21) 9-2 (-) #13-16
Maryland (#13) 8-2 (.5) #13-16 (update: now #5-8)
Indiana (#18) 7-3 (1.5) #13-16 (update: #17-20)
Rutgers 6-4 (2.5) #33-36
Purdue 6-4 (2.5) #33-36 (update: #37-40)
Ohio State 5-5 (3.5) #45-48 (update: #41-44)
Michigan 5-5 (3.5) #37-40
Nebraska 5-6 (4) #41-44 (update: now next 4 out)
Michigan State 4-6 (4.5) out
Minnesota 4-7 (5) out (update: now first 4 out)
Wisconsin 3-8 (6) out
Illinois 1-9 (7.5) out
Penn State 1-10 (8) out

The Gophers need to beat the Badgers to maintain their position.

Charlie Creme’s 1-64 approximate ranking implied by his bracketology is also listed. There are 9 (update: 8) Big-Ten teams earmarked as tentatively headed for the Big Dance - the most of any league.

Minnesota is currently out of Creme’s bracketology. However, it has three wins against teams in the bracketology.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

As of 2/7/2020, with 6 games left in our regular Big-Ten season, all we did recently was squeak by Wisconsin in Madison (afflicted with a facsimile of our typical 4th quarter woes), yet there's movement (based on other teams' results) in the Big-Ten rankings.

Here’s the Big-Ten Conference rankings and games back (with overall record acting as tie breaker). I added a Motion field to games back - which (since games back is a positive number) will be positive for recent motion sliding down the rankings, and negative for recent motion climbing up the rankings. Motion is since last reported on 2/2/2020.

Team (AP Rank)	Conf	GB (Motion)	Creme Rank
Iowa (#20)	10-2	0 (0)	#13-16
Maryland (#13)	10-2	0 (-.5)	#5-8
Northwestern (#21)	9-2	.5 (+.5)	#13-16
Indiana (#18)	8-4	2 (+.5)	#17-20
Rutgers	7-4	2.5 (0)	#33-36
Michigan	6-5	3.5 (0)	#37-40
Ohio State	6-5	3.5 (0)	#41-44
Purdue	6-6	4 (+1.5)	#37-40
Minnesota	5-7	5 (0)	out (first 4 out)
Nebraska	5-7	5 (+1)	out (next 4 out)
Michigan State	4-7	5.5 (+1)	out
Wisconsin	3-9	7 (+1)	out
Illinois	1-10	8.5 (+1)	out
Penn State	1-11	9 (+1)	out

Iowa and Maryland share the top spot with Northwestern sliding to a half-game back. Purdue slid to 4 games back, behind Ohio State, but ahead of both Minnesota and Nebraska, who are now tied at 5 games back (just outside the bubble). Minnesota advanced in ranking over Michigan State with help from the Spartans who slid an additional game back. That means that overall, Minnesota is now tied for 9th place going into the Michigan game.

We can pull to within a half-game of Michigan with a win over the Wolverines.

Big-Ten ranking is important, since it determines our seed in the Big-Ten Conference playoffs.

Charlie Creme’s 1-64 approximate ranking implied by his bracketology is also listed (and is the same as last Tuesday). There are 8 Big-Ten teams earmarked by Charlie as tentatively headed for the Big Dance - the most of any league. Minnesota is currently out of Creme’s bracketology, but is within about 4 slots of getting back in. Our best chance of getting last-minute Dance tickets would be to steal one of the tickets currently earmarked for Michigan, Ohio State or Purdue.

So here’s to having enough healthy players to beat Michigan, and get started moving in that direction. And on the odd chance that Rutgers should start falling in the rankings, we currently own the head-to-head tie-breaker over both Rutgers and Purdue. Owning the tie-breaker over Michigan would be, well, just swell (hint, hint).

 

[CutDownTheNet]

As of 2/11/2020, with 5 games left in our regular Big-Ten season, we slid a bit relative to the league leaders by losing to Michigan.

Here’s the Big-Ten Conference rankings and games back (with overall record acting as tie breaker). Motion is since last reported on 2/7/2020.

Team (AP Rank)	Conf	GB (Motion)	Creme Rank
Iowa (#17)	11-2	0 (0)	#13-16
Maryland (#10)	11-2	0 (0)	#5-8
Northwestern (#19)	10-2	.5 (0)	#13-16
Indiana (#20)	9-4	2 (0)	#17-20
Rutgers	7-5	3.5 (+1)	#25-28
Michigan	7-5	3.5 (0)	#29-32
Ohio State	7-5	3.5 (0)	#37-40
Purdue	6-7	5 (+1)	#37-40
Minnesota	5-8	6 (+1)	out (first 4 out)
Nebraska	5-8	6 (+1)	out
Michigan State	4-8	6.5 (+1)	out
Wisconsin	3-10	8 (+1)	out
Illinois	2-10	8.5 (0)	out
Penn State	1-12	10 (+1)	out

Not much change in the ranking. Iowa and Maryland still share the top spot with Northwestern still a half-game back and Indiana still 2 games back.

Minnesota and Nebraska are tied at 6 games back (just outside the bubble).

We can pull to within a half-game of Purdue with a win over the Buckeyes.

Charlie Creme’s 1-64 approximate ranking implied by his bracketology is also listed (and has not changed much). There are 8 Big-Ten teams earmarked by Charlie as tentatively headed for the Big Dance - the most of any league. Minnesota is currently out of Creme’s bracketology, but is within about 4 slots of getting back in.

Our best chance of getting last-minute Dance tickets would be to steal the ticket currently earmarked for Purdue. Only problem is, Purdue has a current SoS of 14 vs our 35. That means that at end of season, Purdue’s RPI will be 40-ish but Minnesota’s RPI will be 80-ish (barring us upsetting Maryland et al). So under a Big-Ten rank tie with Purdue, the committee’s nod most likely goes to Purdue (even though we beat the Boilers - although the latter might help us if Purdue continues its slide to below Minnesota).

From here on out, we're basically cheering for Penn State, Illinois and Wisconsin as potential spoilers - since we don't play them again, yet it's pretty unlikely that they could catch up with us in the rankings. In particular, whatever damage they can do to the middle teams (Rutgers, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State), helps us out.

The AP-ranked teams are pretty much (mathematically) locked into a playoff berth already - as one might expect.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

As of 2/14/2020, with 4 games left in our regular Big-Ten season, we slid a bit relative to the league leaders by losing to Ohio State.

Here’s the Big-Ten Conference rankings and games back. Motion is since last reported on 2/11/2020.

Team (AP Rank)	Conf	GB (Motion)	Creme Rank
Maryland (#10)	12-2	0 (0)	#5-8
Northwestern (#19)	11-2	.5 (0)	#13-16
Iowa (#17)	11-3	1 (+1)	#13-16
Indiana (#20)	10-4	2 (0)	#17-20
Ohio State	8-5	3.5 (0)	#37-40
Rutgers	7-6	4.5 (+1)	#25-28
Michigan	7-6	4.5 (+1)	#29-32
Purdue	7-7	5 (0)	#37-40
Nebraska	6-8	6 (0)	out
Michigan State	5-8	6.5 (0)	out
Minnesota	5-9	7 (+1)	out (first 4 out)
Wisconsin	3-11	9 (+1)	out
Illinois	2-11	9.5 (+1)	out
Penn State	1-13	11 (+1)	out

Iowa slid down a game in the rankings to land between Northwestern and Indiana, who is still in 4th place. Rutgers and Michigan slid down leaving Ohio State in 5th place, thanks to a donation of 30 layup points by Minnesota plus recent donations by other teams. OSU's strategy of going with a bunch of tall youngsters who will mature late in the season, seems to be paying off.

It's not so much that Nebraska and MIchigan State advanced, but more like Minnesota slid down right past them to take up the 11th ranked slot.

A win over Michigan State could swap our positions (at least temporarily), but (as pointed out in another thread) after that, MSU has two bottom-dwellers plus Michigan and Purdue (to whom it lost once already) left on its schedule, whereas Minnesota has three top teams left on its schedule. What it (approximately) boils down to is that we may be playing Michigan State over the fun "privilege" of playing an extra Big-Ten Tournament game on Wednesday of that week. If you assume the worst for both teams, then you'd guess that Minnesota loses three games (of its 4) and Michigan State loses two (of its 5), so that who gets 11th place depends on who wins the Gopher/Spartan game plus the Gophers beating one of the 3 hard-to-beat teams. Pretty hard to do well in the Big-Ten Tourney if you have to play 5 days in a row. So I guess the moral of the story is, go Gophers, beat Spartans. We virtually "have to" beat Michigan State to avoid the Wednesday game (plus need a little luck besides).

Charlie Creme’s 1-64 approximate ranking implied by his bracketology is also listed (and has not changed since 2/11). There are 8 Big-Ten teams currently earmarked by Charlie as tentatively headed for the Big Dance - the most of any league. Minnesota is currently out of Creme’s bracketology.

 

[CutDownTheNet]

As of 2/18/2020, with 3 games left in our regular Big-Ten season, we are solidly lodged in 11th place by losing to Michigan State.

Here’s the Big-Ten Conference rankings and games back. Motion is since last reported on 2/14/2020.

Team (AP Rank)	Conf	GB (Motion)	Creme Rank	EoS RPI (est)	EoS SoS (est)
Maryland (#7)	13-2	0 (0)	#1-4	3	11
Northwestern (#18)	12-2	.5 (0)	#13-16	13	39
Iowa (#19)	12-3	1 (0)	#13-16	14	25
Indiana (#24)	10-5	3 (+1)	#17-20	17	10
Ohio State	9-5	3.5 (0)	#25-28	23	3
Rutgers	8-6	4.5 (0)	#37-40	44	71
Purdue	8-7	5 (0)	#37-40	43	29
Michigan	7-7	5.5 (+1)	#37-40	41	13
Michigan State	6-8	6.5 (0)	out	107	56
Nebraska	6-9	7 (+1)	out	85	51
Minnesota	5-10	8 (+1)	out	83	26
Wisconsin	3-12	10 (+1)	out	139	36
Illinois	2-12	10.5 (+1)	out	189	64
Penn State	1-14	12 (+1)	out	221	40

Maryland, Northwestern and Iowa are unchanged, leading the pack. Indiana moved an additional game back, but maintained its rank. Michigan slid down a notch to just behind Purdue. Michigan State advanced by means of all the lower teams (most notably Minnesota) sliding down a game.

If Wisconsin can upset 6th ranked Rutgers, then Minnesota is in potential danger of tying Wisconsin (via a miraculous Badger win over Maryland or Northwestern) unless it also achieves at least one upset in its last three games.

Charlie Creme’s 1-64 approximate ranking implied by his bracketology is also listed (and has not changed much). There are 8 Big-Ten teams earmarked by Charlie as tentatively headed for the Big Dance - the most of any league. Minnesota is out of Creme’s bracketology.

The last two columns show predicted RPI and SoS at the end of the regular season, as predicted by Warren Nolan. Since there's only about 3-4 games left, these should be fairly accurate. Minnesota is estimated to end (pre-Big-Ten-Tourney) with an RPI of 83 and a Strength of Schedule of 26 per this prediction - which estimates that the Gophers will lose all three of its remaining games.

One thing to note, however, is that Minnesota will gain a lot in Strength of Schedule just due to playing Indiana, Iowa and Maryland - which helps our final RPI somewhat. Because our schedule is so top-of-the-Big-Ten loaded in the last three games, we're not mathematically out of contention for the NCAA playoffs just yet - particularly if we get an upset or three. But even losing gives us somewhat of an RPI boost thanks to a boost to our SoS. Charlie Creme's bracketology has not (yet) factored in the fact that we will get an SoS/RPI boost. Nevertheless, it looks pretty challenging to make the Big Dance via the front door.

The back door entrance (via winning the B1G Tournament) looks even dicier since we would need to win 5 days in a row against good (well, all but the first one anyway) Big-Ten teams, most of whom have already found their own magic formula for beating us.

The down side is that we likely play Penn State first in Indy, who has an RPI of 221 - knocking down our own SoS/RPI. Not sure if that impacts chances for a WNIT invite.

On the odd chance that the rankings do not change between now and March (not very likely, I’m guessing), we would play Rutgers in our second B1G Tourney game after presumably handling Penn State.