Big Ten Intro to the Air Raid

[upnorthkid]

How a shake-up on offense at Wisconsin and Purdue might better prepare Big Ten for the CFP

A new wave of offensive coordinators led by Phil Longo at Wisconsin and Graham Harrell at Purdue could have the conference looking different than it ever has.

www.espn.com

Nice article on the change of style coming to the Big Ten (shocking they would put out more Wisconsin material).

One gripe I have is this constant that the offenses are not good as they don’t score that many points. Personally much prefer the points per possession metric in football. If you’re scoring near a TD every trip, you won’t lose and you don’t need to score 45. Net points per drive describes the offense and defense much better as it balances for pace of play rather than just saying we score less because we play slow and that’s why the defense is good. 4 B10 teams in the top 15 there last year with 2 (Mich), 3 (OSU), 6 (PSU), and 14 (MN). There’s a reason why the metrics have loved MN for the last couple years.

Wanna know what chokes out an air raid? A long grinding 8 minute drive followed by another rapid 3 and out where you’re only on the field for a total of a minute in a quarter. I honestly don’t think the big ten will be even in a remote worry with adjusting to this. Purdue has done versions at times, NW, etc and we’ve seen the league adjust just fine in the post season (remember how Wash St was going to put 50 on us with everyone out?). Think it’s more likely the air raid will find more trouble playing against fast and fundamentally sound defenses

 

[PMWinSTP]

How a shake-up on offense at Wisconsin and Purdue might better prepare Big Ten for the CFP

A new wave of offensive coordinators led by Phil Longo at Wisconsin and Graham Harrell at Purdue could have the conference looking different than it ever has.

www.espn.com

Nice article on the change of style coming to the Big Ten (shocking they would put out more Wisconsin material).

One gripe I have is this constant that the offenses are not good as they don’t score that many points. Personally much prefer the points per possession metric in football. If you’re scoring near a TD every trip, you won’t lose and you don’t need to score 45. Net points per drive describes the offense and defense much better as it balances for pace of play rather than just saying we score less because we play slow and that’s why the defense is good. 4 B10 teams in the top 15 there last year with 2 (Mich), 3 (OSU), 6 (PSU), and 14 (MN). There’s a reason why the metrics have loved MN for the last couple years.

Wanna know what chokes out an air raid? A long grinding 8 minute drive followed by another rapid 3 and out where you’re only on the field for a total of a minute in a quarter. I honestly don’t think the big ten will be even in a remote worry with adjusting to this. Purdue has done versions at times, NW, etc and we’ve seen the league adjust just fine in the post season (remember how Wash St was going to put 50 on us with everyone out?). Think it’s more likely the air raid will find more trouble playing against fast and fundamentally sound defenses

Yep. If you have a top 20 scoring defense, you can have a scoring offense ranked in the 60s and win a large majority of your games.

I expect the Gophs to again be top 10 in scoring defense, and inside the top 50 in scoring offense. That's a recipe for a lot of wins.

 

[Plato]

If you are successful in using a rigid ball control offense then your defense has less time to face your opponent's offense.
That may make your defense look better than it actually is particularly if your opponent also plays a ball control offense.
These "new offensives" at WI and Purdue will require their opponents to have quality defensive backs, particularly WRs, and safeties.
If WI has a valid passive offense and the two best returning RBs in the West does it not put a real strain on the opponent's defense?
If a rigid ball control defense falls behind they're in trouble.
These were the points in the article.
It all will become clear when the season actually starts.

 

[upnorthkid]

If you are successful in using a rigid ball control offense then your defense has less time to face your opponent's offense.
That may make your defense look better than it actually is particularly if your opponent also plays a ball control offense.
These "new offensives" at WI and Purdue will require their opponents to have quality defensive backs, particularly WRs, and safeties.
If WI has a valid passive offense and the two best returning RBs in the West does it not put a real strain on the opponent's defense?
If a rigid ball control defense falls behind they're in trouble.
These were the points in the article.
It all will become clear when the season actually starts.

You will notice they mentioned zero Wisconsin players in the article aside from Mordecai coming in to run the spread because no one on the roster had. Athletes will need to be had regardless of style you’re playing against. The better athletes will win unless the coach cannot prepare them for the scheme effectively.

That was the purpose of the article that the scheme may be something the big ten May not be ready for and cited losses in the CFP, lack of “high scoring” offenses, and minimal spread attacks in the league prior as the evidence. If Wisconsin (or Purdue) has better Jimmys and Joes, the system matters less. But the article is about Fickell breaking his prior tendency and going with Longò, a spread attack up tempo guy, which goes against his roots, not that Wisconsin might have good players right now.

 

[Plato]

You will notice they mentioned zero Wisconsin players in the article aside from Mordecai coming in to run the spread because no one on the roster had. Athletes will need to be had regardless of style you’re playing against. The better athletes will win unless the coach cannot prepare them for the scheme effectively.

That was the purpose of the article that the scheme may be something the big ten May not be ready for and cited losses in the CFP, lack of “high scoring” offenses, and minimal spread attacks in the league prior as the evidence. If Wisconsin (or Purdue) has better Jimmys and Joes, the system matters less. But the article is about Fickell breaking his prior tendency and going with Longò, a spread attack up tempo guy, which goes against his roots, not that Wisconsin might have good players right now.

All I know about what Fickell has done since he came to WI is from what I read in The Athletic. He looked at what it would take to beat OSU which had very good WRs and good QBs and recruited Longo as OC at WI.
Then through the portal, he rebuilt the QB and WR rooms and added CBs that can run with the WRs.
Longo had RBs that run for 1000 yards a season and WI has two that are capable of that.
The major question at WI is getting the OL conditioned and retrained to fit the new offense.
That will be answered when the season starts.
The West will be a lot more fun to watch this year and defenses will have to adapt.

 

[FireDaveLee]

Plato, 1993-2022: "Running the ball, ball control, and game management win Big Ten football games!"
Plato, 2023: "Pitch & Catch, get athletes in space, that's college football....Luke Fickell & Hal Mumme for President!"

 

[Pompous Elitist]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

 

[jonnyganas]

It's interesting that Fleck came to MN stating he wanted to do things the WI and IA way.
Cultural sustainability, strong defense and ground game, develop players, building a program "the right way."

Now WI is hard pivoting from that by chasing a shiny new coach and flashy air raid offense. Not a slow methodical development, but a quick change to something completely new and exciting. Fickell is a great coaching hire, but he doesn't seem to telling the public or media that this change may take time. Implicitly, he is setting the expectation that they got their guys in the portal so they are ready to go take the West. Meanwhile, Fleck is repeatedly saying (and has always said) "we don't want to sacrifice what you want down the road for what you want today."

It's a contrast in styles, schemes, and philosophy. It's also reminiscent of his contrast with Frost. I'll never forget Fleck yelling in that post-game interview after beating Nebraska "That game was culture over skill! Culture over skill!" If we keep the axe again this year, I wonder if that will be the same kind of message.

 

[fmlizard]

I've seen quite a few coaches try and fail to bring tempo and pass-first to the Big Ten West.

Gophers have had a couple. They are the two least successful Gopher coaches of the last 40 years, Wacker and Brewster.

Purdue has been about the only team that has had some luck with this strategy, and that was when they had a run of future NFL QBs. Ohio State can too, but they could also run the wishbone and crush most teams.

There's a chance Fickell could take wisconsin to the next level. There's also the chance he's the next Bill Callahan, and wisconsin's identity change keeps the Axe at the State Fair for the rest of the decade.

 

[GopherRock]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

The biggest question mark in Madison is OL. Their line the last two years was trash, line rebuilds take two full seasons at minimum, and all the skill position talent in the world isn't going to mean much if the OL can't control the LoS.

 

[upnorthkid]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

Wait you mean the guys who were backups at P5 schools aren’t automatically slated to have 1000 yard seasons off the bat? Reading online I’d sure beg to differ as that seems to be the concept.

Couldn’t agree more. It’s fun to bring in power 5 transfers but they gotta show it on the field. There’sa reason they are transferring and none of these guys were doing it because they’re Addison and wanted a pay day as they almost all left more proven pass happy offenses

 

[MNBadgerGuy]

Wait you mean the guys who were backups at P5 schools aren’t automatically slated to have 1000 yard seasons off the bat? Reading online I’d sure beg to differ as that seems to be the concept.

Couldn’t agree more. It’s fun to bring in power 5 transfers but they gotta show it on the field. There’sa reason they are transferring and none of these guys were doing it because they’re Addison and wanted a pay day as they almost all left more proven pass happy offenses

Assume you're referring to CJ Williams from USC? He wasn't a starter, but played in 11 games as a true freshman. They recruit some decent WR there. He was going to be behind some returning players, but I don't think bums play as true freshman at SC.

Bryson Green? His sophomore year at OK St was pretty good. Second leading receiver doesn't scream back up to me, but who knows.

Neither are slated as starters yet, but seem like good additions. I don't think anyone is saying they brought in All American WRs, just that they made some nice additions to the roster that will help the offense.

 

[Some guy]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

Also possible Allen isn’t as good of a back when running from gun formations instead of under center

 

[Taji34]

I agree with everyone else about Wisconsin's OL being the crux of the offense. You could have Tom Brady as your QB and amazing receivers, but if the QB is forced to leave the pocket on every pass play and throw on the run, that's only going to get you so far and also really ramp up the chances for turnovers.

 

[noamfromm]

Wait you mean the guys who were backups at P5 schools aren’t automatically slated to have 1000 yard seasons off the bat? Reading online I’d sure beg to differ as that seems to be the concept.

Couldn’t agree more. It’s fun to bring in power 5 transfers but they gotta show it on the field. There’sa reason they are transferring and none of these guys were doing it because they’re Addison and wanted a pay day as they almost all left more proven pass happy offenses

Mike Leach had taken so many non-NFL players and had them catch > 500 yards per year. The only players that I can think of that made the NFL are Michael Crabtree, Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. The air raid system has shown that it doesn't need NFL talent at either the QB or WR position.

 

[Thomasthetank]

I've seen quite a few coaches try and fail to bring tempo and pass-first to the Big Ten West.

Gophers have had a couple. They are the two least successful Gopher coaches of the last 40 years, Wacker and Brewster.

Purdue has been about the only team that has had some luck with this strategy, and that was when they had a run of future NFL QBs. Ohio State can too, but they could also run the wishbone and crush most teams.

There's a chance Fickell could take wisconsin to the next level. There's also the chance he's the next Bill Callahan, and wisconsin's identity change keeps the Axe at the State Fair for the rest of the decade.

I tend to agree with this.

It's possible that Fickell takes Wi to the next level. However, it's possible he brings in a new system and fails miserably. Many Wi Kool aid drinkers can't see this.

Implementation of totally new systems have as great of a chance of crashing and burning before they get off the ground as they do succeeding.

We don't really know where WI will end up. He's a proven coach in G5. That doesn't immediately translate to B1G immediate dominance.

 

[Xerxes_]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

Outside of Ohio State, Michigan, and PSU this describes every team in the B1G every year.

 

[MaxyJR1]

The assumption the Wisconsin O is going to be good this year is interesting to me. Allen can be a handful if he gets loose but there’s a lot of maybes, unprovens and OKs beyond that.

If they are moving at a high rate Allen also will need more rest and won't be on the field as much potentially. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. At the end of the game we just need 1 more point.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Outside of Ohio State, Michigan, and PSU this describes every team in the B1G every year.

Maybe even them.

I hopped off the hype train a long, long time ago.

 

[upnorthkid]

Assume you're referring to CJ Williams from USC? He wasn't a starter, but played in 11 games as a true freshman. They recruit some decent WR there. He was going to be behind some returning players, but I don't think bums play as true freshman at SC.

Bryson Green? His sophomore year at OK St was pretty good. Second leading receiver doesn't scream back up to me, but who knows.

Neither are slated as starters yet, but seem like good additions. I don't think anyone is saying they brought in All American WRs, just that they made some nice additions to the roster that will help the offense.

did I say he was a bum? I said he's not a sure thing. Everyone was hyped about Dylan Wright as well. We'll see how it goes.
Green was not a starter on their team. He was their second leading receiver clustered with multiple at 500 yards. He ended up playing more as their best guy (Johnson) was out over a month with an injury.

In all honesty I'm more interested in Dike and Bell who looked good in flashes with Mertz throwing to them and were open a lot more than they're given credit for. That said, it's still a whole bunch of unknowns on how this will work.

 

[hungan1]

Minnesota under PJ Fleck will make adjustments.

How will this impact how the Gophers recruit? Their DBs need to get to a higher level.

They’re not going to stray too far from their identity. They are going to continue to pound the football with a beefy OL. Maybe, they’ll be more balanced.

 

[upnorthkid]

Mike Leach had taken so many non-NFL players and had them catch > 500 yards per year. The only players that I can think of that made the NFL are Michael Crabtree, Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. The air raid system has shown that it doesn't need NFL talent at either the QB or WR position.

i agree only that's leach and this is longo. He's had Downs and Green the last 2 years (last year Green missed a bunch of time) and Downs has gone over 1000 each year with the 2 of them combining for 2000 yards in 2021 (next highest was ~250). The year before it was Dynami Brown and Dazz Newsome. All of those guys are NFL guys with Howell and Maye (both NFL guys) throwing them the ball.
His offense his years at Ole Miss had AJ Brown and DK Metcalf plus Van Jefferson and Dawson Knox.

Maybe this is all Longo coaching these guys up, but to say he's done it with a bunch of no names like Leach did is just not true.

Also, damn that is some unreal talent at WR.

Longo is different in that he features the TE more, which does make it curious that they lost a couple of guys there as well as run his QB more. I dunno if they quite have the horses this year to do it, but I'll be interested to see how it goes (I love intricate passing offenses so I'm all for seeing it more often as a fan).

 

[upnorthkid]

Minnesota under PJ Fleck will make adjustments.

How will this impact how the Gophers recruit? Their DBs need to get to a higher level.

They’re not going to stray too far from their identity. They are going to continue to pound the football with a beefy OL. Maybe,, they’ll be more balanced.

we've put 5 DBs in the NFL the last 4 years and probably another 2 this fall. they're doing just fine recruiting DBs.

 

[hungan1]

we've put 5 DBs in the NFL the last 4 years and probably another 2 this fall. they're doing just fine recruiting DBs.

I am worried about depth.

Getting three or more players drafted each season opens eyes.

 

[upnorthkid]

I am worried about depth.

Getting three or more players drafted each season opens eyes.

Just to put that into context, Alabama had 4 this year, Michigan 1, Georgia 1, OSU none, and TCU 1.

Edit: it's just to say, it's pretty rare to get that high a group in one draft season but 1-2 every year speaks that you're recruiting well and likely to have guys in the wings.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

did I say he was a bum? I said he's not a sure thing. Everyone was hyped about Dylan Wright as well. We'll see how it goes.
Green was not a starter on their team. He was their second leading receiver clustered with multiple at 500 yards. He ended up playing more as their best guy (Johnson) was out over a month with an injury.

In all honesty I'm more interested in Dike and Bell who looked good in flashes with Mertz throwing to them and were open a lot more than they're given credit for. That said, it's still a whole bunch of unknowns on how this will work.

For all the talk about who they brought in at the transfer WR spots, Fickell made a comment in an interview somewhere that he was pleasantly surprised with how much WR talent was already on this team. I'm assuming that's Bell and Dike. Part of that made sense considering UW WR are not featured and their OL and QB play has been below average at best the last few years.

I think we'll be surprised with how much they run the ball with Allen and Mellusi. It may not be as much as Chryst did, but if it's 50% of the time, all the air raid talk is just a bunch of hot air.

 

[Rescooter]

Minnesota under PJ Fleck will make adjustments.

How will this impact how the Gophers recruit? Their DBs need to get to a higher level.

They’re not going to stray too far from their identity. They are going to continue to pound the football with a beefy OL. Maybe, they’ll be more balanced.

This is true. They do have a good QB in Mordecai and several WRs, but the real question and area of weakness could be the OL. Pass blocking and run blocking are different. If our DL can regularly hurry Mordecai, we will keep the axe.

This will be a really good game.

 

[Some guy]

Mike Leach had taken so many non-NFL players and had them catch > 500 yards per year. The only players that I can think of that made the NFL are Michael Crabtree, Wes Welker and Danny Amendola. The air raid system has shown that it doesn't need NFL talent at either the QB or WR position.

Correct. An air raid system can score a lot of points, gain yards, and win games.

Mike leach was also 94-84 in conference (53%)
i have no doubt wisconsin can settle in as a 5–4 type team consistently under Fickell

 

[noamfromm]

Correct. An air raid system can score a lot of points, gain yards, and win games.

Mike leach was also 94-84 in conference (53%)
i have no doubt wisconsin can settle in as a 5–4 type team consistently under Fickell

That's all well and good. The point I was responding to was that Wisconsin somehow needed very good players in order to pull off an air raid type system

 

[MNVCGUY]

My big question with an air raid system is if it can truly work in a northern climate. Weather is a much bigger factor in places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa.....as the season goes on. Power running makes sense because it is less affected by things like wind and cold.

Will be interesting to see how Wisconsin looks, could work could be a complete disaster. Purdue might be new to the air raid specifically but they have been slinging it around for a while so don't see this as a massive change from what they have tried to do in the past with varying levels of success.