Big Ten head coaches' first full recruiting class (Rivals era)

[dpodoll68]

Nine out of the 12 Big Ten schools (Penn St., Iowa, and Ohio St. excepted) have hired a new head coach in the Rivals era, with Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan St. and Nebraska each making two hires in that timeframe. Since Jerry Kill clearly has no idea what he is doing in recruiting and is scorching the earth like we haven't seen in decades at Minnesota, I thought it would be instructive to take a look at how each of those 14 hires did in their first full recruiting class, and compare it to their predecessor's final class. NOTE: Rivals has retroactively added Nebraska to previous years' Big Ten recruiting rankings for comparison's sake.

2012

Jerry Kill - 2.7 star avg (on 10 evaluated recruits)
Tim Brewster - 2.79 star avg, #9 Big Ten, NR overall

Kevin Wilson - 2.875 star avg (on 8 evaluated recruits)
Bill Lynch - 2.67 star avg, #10 Big Ten, NR overall

Brady Hoke - 3.5 star avg (on 20 evaluated recruits)
Rich Rodriguez - 3.25 star avg, #3 Big Ten, #21 overall

2010

Danny Hope - 2.63 star avg, #8 Big Ten, NR overall
Joe Tiller - 2.50 star avg, #12 Big Ten, NR overall

2009

Rich Rodriguez - 3.59 star avg, #2 Big Ten, #8 overall
Lloyd Carr - 3.67 star avg, #2 Big Ten, #10 overall

Bo Pelini - 3.25 star avg, #5 Big Ten, #28 overall
Bill Callahan - 2.96 star avg, #5 Big Ten, #30 overall

2008

Bill Lynch - 2.15 star avg, #12 Big Ten, NR overall
Terry Hoeppner - 2.15 star avg, #12 Big Ten, NR overall

Mark Dantonio - 2.71 star avg, #8 Big Ten, #47 overall
John L. Smith - 2.70 star avg, #8 Big Ten, #42 overall

Tim Brewster - 3.07 star avg, #3 Big Ten, #17 overall
Glen Mason - 2.46 star avg, #10 Big Ten, NR overall

2007

Burnt Enema - 3.06 star avg, #7 Big Ten, #34 overall
Barry Alvarez - 2.70 star avg, #8 Big Ten, #40 overall

Pat Fitzgerald - 2.74 star avg, #9 Big Ten, NR overall
Randy Walker - 2.24 star avg, #11 Big Ten, NR overall

2006

Ron Zook - 2.89 star avg, #5 Big Ten, #30 overall
Ron Turner - 2.57 avg, #9 Big Ten, NR overall

2005

Bill Callahan - 3.33 star avg, #1 Big Ten, #5 overall
Frank Solich - 2.83 star avg, #6 Big Ten, #27 overall

2004

John L. Smith - 2.93 star avg, #4 Big Ten, #16 overall
Bobby Williams - 2.63 star avg, #10 Big Ten, NR overall



Star avg compared to predecessor (expressed as % +/-)

1. Tim Brewster 24.80
2. Pat Fitzgerald 22.32
3. Bill Callahan 17.67
4. Burnt Enema 13.33
5. Ron Zook 12.45
6. John L. Smith 11.41
7. Bo Pelini 9.80
8. Brady Hoke 7.69
9. Kevin Wilson 7.68
10. Danny Hope 5.20
11. Mark Dantonio 0.37
12. Bill Lynch 0.00
13. Rich Rod -2.18
14. Jerry Kill -3.22

Notes:

- Twelve out of 14 coaches experienced the "first year bump", so I think it's safe to say that it is a real phenomenon. Moreover, a full third of Kill's recruits have not yet been rated, and we are only in July, so it could very well be 13 out of 14 by signing day.

- There is almost zero correlation between first-year recruiting results and success as a head coach. Tim Brewster improved Minnesota's recruiting on a marginal basis more than any other Big Ten hire in the last 10 years, and I think we'd all agree he was a dumpster fire as a head coach. Enema and Pelini have been, far and away, the two most successful coaches on the list, and they are #3 and #7, respectively. Dantonio is the third, and he is #11 overall, between Danny Hope and Bill Lynch. Three of the top 6 were fired within 4 years, with Zook on the hottest of seats and likely to become the 4th fired of the top 6 sooner rather than later.

 

[Doc1001]

Thanks

You put alot of work into that and I found it interesting.

 

[MplsHammer]

Cool, thanks for posting.

 

[Mustang Mountain Man]

Good work, young man.