Big Ten Football: Who is on the hot seat in 2025? (Fickell, Riley, Locksley)

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Per Dave:

Who is on the hot seat?​

Which coaches will be on the hottest of hot seats heading into the new campaign?

1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Fickell was named head coach over Jim Leonhard when he was the top Group of 5 candidate available, but Wisconsin is just 13-13 overall in his tenure and was irrelevant in the 2024 B1G race. Will athletic director Chris McIntosh have him on a short leash next fall?

2. Lincoln Riley, USC

Riley went 55-10 with 4 Playoff appearances at Oklahoma, but he is just 15-11 in his past 2 seasons at ‘SC. The Trojans won’t play Ohio State and Penn State next year but will have to travel to Notre Dame and Oregon. Athletic director Jen Cohen did not hire Riley, but he still has 7 (!!!) years left on his deal. And the buyout reportedly is $90 million.

3. Mike Locksley, Maryland

The Terrapins’ 3-year bowl streak ended after a 4-8 campaign. They had just 1 league win, and the conference is only getting more difficult. Locksley is 32-36 since returning to Maryland in 2019.

saturdaytradition.com

10 critical questions as the B1G seeks a 3-peat in 2025

Ohio State is still celebrating the 2024 national championship, but it's never too early to start looking ahead at the key questions for 2025.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com

Go Gophers!!
 

With the nature of the job I would say Riley seat is the hottest. Then Locksley then Fickell. Does UCLA have Foster on a short leash would be something to watch as well, same with NW and Brahn
 



Transfer Portal, NIL, and buyouts seems to be driving most P4 decisions.

With that, I think Fickell is the first Big Ten casualty...and in-season.
 


WindyCityGopher said:
Riley has a $90 million buyout???? Good lord, at that point I'd be sandbagging the hell out of my effort to get fired and live on a beach in Thailand for awhile, a la Kliff Kingsbury.
Click to expand...

Maybe he is already ahead of you on that WCG...😉
 

Lockley is guaranteed fire if they go 4-8 again
Probably guarantee keep the job if they make a bowl.

So I guess how hot his seat is depends on what you think their record will be:
FAU
N Illinois
Towson
At Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
At UCLA
Indiana
At Rutgers
At Illinois
Michigan
@ Michigan state

Pretty manageable
Avoid Ohio State, Penn state, Oregon, USC, Minnesota, Iowa
Meaning they avoid 6/8 who had winning conference records last year.


Wisconsin probably gives Fickell one more year if he gets to 5 wins
I think they fire him if they’re 4-8 or worse
Miami OH
Middle TN state
@ Alabama
Maryland
@ Michigan
Iowa
Ohio state
@ Oregon
Washington
@ Indiana
Illinois
@ Minnesota

They play 7/8 of the teams with winning conference records + @ Alabama
If they lose to Miami Oh or Maryland…the writing could be on the wall pretty early.


I have no idea the politics of USC
But:
Missouri state
Ga Southern
@ Purdue
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Michigan
@ Notre dame
@ Nebraska
Northwestern
Iowa
@ Oregon
UCLA

They can’t afford to lose to any of the bad teams but they play 6 games that should easily be wins - UCLA, MSU, NU, PU, Missouri State. GA southern

I would think that means 6-6 gets him fired. Gotta win 7 or 8 to keep his job.





I think the guy most likely to lose his job in the big ten next year is actually Braun. Their ceiling is 5. He is an interim coach who they kept around because they went 7-5 in a tough spot. But if they go 4-8 (2-7) back to back…he would be cheap to get rid of.


I would rate the hot seat:
Braun
Fickell
Locksley
Riley
But I rank them that way because of how I feel their teams will do + the amount of money that was spent on them.

I think Maryland goes 6-6
I think USC goes 7-5 or 8-4
And that makes those guys safe.

I think northwestern goes 4-8 and they fire Braun
I think if Fickell can start 3-1 he will end up surviving the season.
 

Some guy said:
Lockley is guaranteed fire if they go 4-8 again
Probably guarantee keep the job if they make a bowl.

So I guess how hot his seat is depends on what you think their record will be:
FAU
N Illinois
Towson
At Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
At UCLA
Indiana
At Rutgers
At Illinois
Michigan
@ Michigan state

Pretty manageable
Avoid Ohio State, Penn state, Oregon, USC, Minnesota, Iowa
Meaning they avoid 6/8 who had winning conference records last year.


Wisconsin probably gives Fickell one more year if he gets to 5 wins
I think they fire him if they’re 4-8 or worse
Miami OH
Middle TN state
@ Alabama
Maryland
@ Michigan
Iowa
Ohio state
@ Oregon
Washington
@ Indiana
Illinois
@ Minnesota

They play 7/8 of the teams with winning conference records + @ Alabama
If they lose to Miami Oh or Maryland…the writing could be on the wall pretty early.


I have no idea the politics of USC
But:
Missouri state
Ga Southern
@ Purdue
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Michigan
@ Notre dame
@ Nebraska
Northwestern
Iowa
@ Oregon
UCLA

They can’t afford to lose to any of the bad teams but they play 6 games that should easily be wins - UCLA, MSU, NU, PU, Missouri State. GA southern

I would think that means 6-6 gets him fired. Gotta win 7 or 8 to keep his job.





I think the guy most likely to lose his job in the big ten next year is actually Braun. Their ceiling is 5. He is an interim coach who they kept around because they went 7-5 in a tough spot. But if they go 4-8 (2-7) back to back…he would be cheap to get rid of.


I would rate the hot seat:
Braun
Fickell
Locksley
Riley
But I rank them that way because of how I feel their teams will do + the amount of money that was spent on them.

I think Maryland goes 6-6
I think USC goes 7-5 or 8-4
And that makes those guys safe.

I think northwestern goes 4-8 and they fire Braun
I think if Fickell can start 3-1 he will end up surviving the season.
Click to expand...
You’re spot on. It’s really difficult to say “who is on the hottest seat” because it all depends on how the season starts.

I don’t know if a 7-5 Lincoln Riley survives - he probably even starts looking for a soft landing spot.
 




How long before Pat Fitzgerald gets another job? Hazing aside (that sounds bad...sorry) but he did miracles at Northwestern.
 

I think Fickell's buyout now is like $31M.
 

Sparlimb said:
Well Wisconsin's schedule is brutal. So Fickell's seat may not be as hot, but it will be by the end of the year.
Click to expand...
Yea that is rough. Are the only favorites against Maryland in B1G play (theoretically without looking at how next year's rosters stack up)?
 

I think Fickell is on the shortest leash, their talent level seems to be on a fairly noticeable downward trend.
I wonder how the west coast big 10 will fare long term. I read earlier about the difficulty(and poor record) in a 2 hour time difference for teams going west, I wonder how that will play for those teams heading east?
 



Tech Machine said:
I think Fickell is on the shortest leash, their talent level seems to be on a fairly noticeable downward trend.
I wonder how the west coast big 10 will fare long term. I read earlier about the difficulty(and poor record) in a 2 hour time difference for teams going west, I wonder how that will play for those teams heading east?
Click to expand...
I guess I don't see the downward talent trend. 2025 recruiting class is ranked 29th and transfer class is 14th. Between them, Wisc has 11 4* I believe. This next year should be more telling about if the offensive transition is working, although as others have pointed out, the schedule is pretty challenging with MI, OSU, Oregon and Alabama.
 

Some guy said:
Lockley is guaranteed fire if they go 4-8 again
Probably guarantee keep the job if they make a bowl.

So I guess how hot his seat is depends on what you think their record will be:
FAU
N Illinois
Towson
At Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
At UCLA
Indiana
At Rutgers
At Illinois
Michigan
@ Michigan state

Pretty manageable
Avoid Ohio State, Penn state, Oregon, USC, Minnesota, Iowa
Meaning they avoid 6/8 who had winning conference records last year.


Wisconsin probably gives Fickell one more year if he gets to 5 wins
I think they fire him if they’re 4-8 or worse
Miami OH
Middle TN state
@ Alabama
Maryland
@ Michigan
Iowa
Ohio state
@ Oregon
Washington
@ Indiana
Illinois
@ Minnesota

They play 7/8 of the teams with winning conference records + @ Alabama
If they lose to Miami Oh or Maryland…the writing could be on the wall pretty early.


I have no idea the politics of USC
But:
Missouri state
Ga Southern
@ Purdue
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Michigan
@ Notre dame
@ Nebraska
Northwestern
Iowa
@ Oregon
UCLA

They can’t afford to lose to any of the bad teams but they play 6 games that should easily be wins - UCLA, MSU, NU, PU, Missouri State. GA southern

I would think that means 6-6 gets him fired. Gotta win 7 or 8 to keep his job.





I think the guy most likely to lose his job in the big ten next year is actually Braun. Their ceiling is 5. He is an interim coach who they kept around because they went 7-5 in a tough spot. But if they go 4-8 (2-7) back to back…he would be cheap to get rid of.


I would rate the hot seat:
Braun
Fickell
Locksley
Riley
But I rank them that way because of how I feel their teams will do + the amount of money that was spent on them.

I think Maryland goes 6-6
I think USC goes 7-5 or 8-4
And that makes those guys safe.

I think northwestern goes 4-8 and they fire Braun
I think if Fickell can start 3-1 he will end up surviving the season.
Click to expand...
How in the world did MD get away with setting up that squishy soft NC schedule?
 

cheeseheadgophfan said:
How long before Pat Fitzgerald gets another job? Hazing aside (that sounds bad...sorry) but he did miracles at Northwestern.
Click to expand...
Is 65-76 in the conference with 3 of your last 4 seasons being 1-8 a miracle?
3 1-win seasons in 4 is probably enough to fire a coach without hazing. Hazing may have been a convenient excuse to fire him and get out of a buyout.

That said, he'd probably be a good coach at some level. Just not sure it's at a P4 school.
 
Last edited:

Word said:
Is 65-76 in the conference with 3 of your last 4 seasons being 1-8 a miracle?
3 1-win seasons in 4 is probably enough to fire a coach without hazing. Hazing may have been a convenient excuse to fire him and get out of a buyout.

That said, he'd probably be a good coach at some level. Just not sure it's at a P4 school.
Click to expand...

He did beat Nebraska their first year in the Big Ten. I'll always love him for that.
 

Word said:
Is 65-76 in the conference with 3 of your last 4 seasons being 1-8 a miracle?
3 1-win seasons in 4 is probably enough to fire a coach without hazing. Hazing may have been a convenient excuse to fire him and get out of a buyout.

That said, he'd probably be a good coach at some level. Just not sure it's at a P4 school.
Click to expand...
Plus, his wrongful termination suit against NU still hasn't gone to trial (or, what's more likely, been settled), so I'm guessing ADs don't want to bite on Fitz until that pretty major issue is put to bed.
 


cheeseheadgophfan said:
How long before Pat Fitzgerald gets another job? Hazing aside (that sounds bad...sorry) but he did miracles at Northwestern.
Click to expand...
I would guess he is untouchable until his northwestern suit is settled
Because you can’t hiring without knowing what might come out later. Would be a huge risk for a guy that is 3-24 his last 27 non covid conference games
 

Word said:
Is 65-76 in the conference with 3 of your last 4 seasons being 1-8 a miracle?
3 1-win seasons in 4 is probably enough to fire a coach without hazing. Hazing may have been a convenient excuse to fire him and get out of a buyout.

That said, he'd probably be a good coach at some level. Just not sure it's at a P4 school.
Click to expand...
Pat Fitzgerald won 46% of his conference games and never won a big ten title
Randy Walker won 43% of his conference games and won a big ten title
Gary Barnett won 41% of his conference games and two big ten titles

Pat Fitzgerald maintained what became a solid program but a pretty good argument could be made he is their worst coach since 1992

Although I think Braun is worse.
 

Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0 said:
How in the world did MD get away with setting up that squishy soft NC schedule?
Click to expand...
If you only have one locked game and it is against Rutgers, you’re going to get favorable schedules more often than teams that are locked against multiple better opponents

Just like Indiana is going to get favorable schedules. (Purdue)
Rutgers will (Maryland)
 

Tech Machine said:
I think Fickell is on the shortest leash, their talent level seems to be on a fairly noticeable downward trend.
I wonder how the west coast big 10 will fare long term. I read earlier about the difficulty(and poor record) in a 2 hour time difference for teams going west, I wonder how that will play for those teams heading east?
Click to expand...
www.si.com

Wisconsin football on pace for best recruiting class in program history

In the recruiting rankings era, where does the 2025 Wisconsin class rank?
www.si.com www.si.com

This is from June so maybe take it with a grain of salt…
 

I guess my comment on Wisconsin’s talent has more to do with their performance, on the field, rather than recruiting ratings. I thought Minnesota was obviously more talented than Wisconsin in their matchup this past year. I’m not sure I have gotten that vibe before now.
 

Fickell was a red-hot commodity when Wisconsin hired him to replace Chryst (who was seen as hopelessly old-fashioned). After all, Fickell had taken the Cincinnati Bearcats to the playoff. That hire was praised at the time by both fans and media. There may even have been some folks right here at Gopher Hole who were impressed.

Likewise, hiring Riley was trumpeted as a very, very big deal for USC when they lured him away from Oklahoma. It was pointed out that Riley had the highest win percentage in Sooner history. USC fans and sports media were euphoric, as I recall. A home run hire!

And now? Well, jeez... the fans and media sure are quick to turn on two of their (former) 'darlings'. The bleach-blonde young starlets of the college football coaching universe seem to age very, very quickly in the internet era!

Speaking of fan/media darlings, I can't help but wonder how long Matt Ruhle's leash is these days. He was supposedly the savior at Nebraska, a program with a fan base that still considers the Cornhuskers to be among the college football blue-bloods. Well, Ruhle has now taken Nebraska to a 7-6 (WOW!) season, capped by their first bowl game since forever. I guess that was enough to buy him some good will. It's funny how going to a "low-level" bowl and a 7-6 record can seem like a big deal, depending on ever-changing fan/media expectations, perceptions and whims.

All of this does beg the question: Who would you rather have as Gopher coach...

Fickell, Riley, Ruhle... or P.J. Fleck?
 
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RememberMurray said:
All of this does beg the question: Who would you rather have as Gopher coach...

Fickell, Riley, Ruhle... or P.J. Fleck?
Click to expand...
To your closing question, Murray...

At the time of Riley hire, Riley.
At the time of the Fickell hire, Fickell.
At the time of the Ruhle hire, Ruhle.

Today? "My team is on the floor..."
 

Locksley is a terrible coach.

Fickell is not getting fired next year.
 

Some guy said:
If you only have one locked game and it is against Rutgers, you’re going to get favorable schedules more often than teams that are locked against multiple better opponents

Just like Indiana is going to get favorable schedules. (Purdue)
Rutgers will (Maryland)
Click to expand...
I think the OP was referring to "FAU, N Illinois, and Towson" not their B1G opponents.
 

GopherTheJugular said:
I think the OP was referring to "FAU, N Illinois, and Towson" not their B1G opponents.
Click to expand...
The whole thing is soft.
The non conference is soft because marylands non conference is always soft.
Although N Illinois is usually decently dangerous
 

Some guy said:
Lockley is guaranteed fire if they go 4-8 again
Probably guarantee keep the job if they make a bowl.

So I guess how hot his seat is depends on what you think their record will be:
FAU
N Illinois
Towson
At Wisconsin
Washington
Nebraska
At UCLA
Indiana
At Rutgers
At Illinois
Michigan
@ Michigan state

Pretty manageable
Avoid Ohio State, Penn state, Oregon, USC, Minnesota, Iowa
Meaning they avoid 6/8 who had winning conference records last year.


Wisconsin probably gives Fickell one more year if he gets to 5 wins
I think they fire him if they’re 4-8 or worse
Miami OH
Middle TN state
@ Alabama
Maryland
@ Michigan
Iowa
Ohio state
@ Oregon
Washington
@ Indiana
Illinois
@ Minnesota

They play 7/8 of the teams with winning conference records + @ Alabama
If they lose to Miami Oh or Maryland…the writing could be on the wall pretty early.


I have no idea the politics of USC
But:
Missouri state
Ga Southern
@ Purdue
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Michigan
@ Notre dame
@ Nebraska
Northwestern
Iowa
@ Oregon
UCLA

They can’t afford to lose to any of the bad teams but they play 6 games that should easily be wins - UCLA, MSU, NU, PU, Missouri State. GA southern

I would think that means 6-6 gets him fired. Gotta win 7 or 8 to keep his job.





I think the guy most likely to lose his job in the big ten next year is actually Braun. Their ceiling is 5. He is an interim coach who they kept around because they went 7-5 in a tough spot. But if they go 4-8 (2-7) back to back…he would be cheap to get rid of.


I would rate the hot seat:
Braun
Fickell
Locksley
Riley
But I rank them that way because of how I feel their teams will do + the amount of money that was spent on them.

I think Maryland goes 6-6
I think USC goes 7-5 or 8-4
And that makes those guys safe.

I think northwestern goes 4-8 and they fire Braun
I think if Fickell can start 3-1 he will end up surviving the season.
Click to expand...
Love this. It’s the fun but in-depth analysis that keeps me visiting GH in January. It sure ain’t the hot coach and “way too early” rankings that include Nebraska lol
 

Word said:
Is 65-76 in the conference with 3 of your last 4 seasons being 1-8 a miracle?
3 1-win seasons in 4 is probably enough to fire a coach without hazing. Hazing may have been a convenient excuse to fire him and get out of a buyout.

That said, he'd probably be a good coach at some level. Just not sure it's at a P4 school.
Click to expand...
So after 2018 he was 62-52 in big ten games? That's pretty good, even 65-76 is pretty fantastic at Northwestern. I doubt anyone in the next 50 years NW comes close to consistently having that program where Fitz had it at the height of his time there
 

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