HoustonTXGopher
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True, on both accounts, sold the franchise and just teaching golf these days. Tell me more...
Big Ten football: Projected regular-season win totals for every team in 2023 (Minnesota: Projected preseason win total: 7.5)
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Tanner had an outstanding career based on longevity and highlighted by one supurb season.
Doesn't matter if it has happened in 32 years or 92 years. In 2023 we are playing with the coach and players we have now, same as Whisky and Hog.
Gopherchase
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A tougher schedule with more high profile teams is what we should all want. Those games should be much more fun to watch. Fleck will be challenged to be a more nimble game day coach. I hope he’s up to it.
ergopher
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We went 9-4 last year with CrAB hurt and even pulled off 9-4 in 2021 with all the injuries that year entailed, most notably at RB. Who knows how much better we would have done both of those years if we’d stayed healthier, and even with some absences to fill the fact that we were able to survive those years with such a loss in talent bodes well for this year and even moreso going on into future seasons past that. Every game on this slate to me is at least winnable, and as such I would call 8-4 a safe bet, while 9-3 or even 10-2 are possibilities. This will be a major test for the Gophers, but I have full confidence we will prove ourselves as a team that will still be able to consistently perform well in the B1G after expansion.
short ornery norwegian
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Hey, I am a Gopher fan. I want to see the team win as many games as possible.
But I also consider myself a realist.
Sure, I can paint a scenario where everything goes right for the Gophers - but I can also envision a scenario where some things go wrong.
The Gophers are replacing one of the best - if not the best - RB's in the history of the program. They are replacing an All-American C who could be a 1st-round NFL draft pick. those are pretty significant losses to fill. and that's not counting 2 other starters on the OL, a starting LB and at least two starters in the secondary.
and they are facing a schedule that, on paper, is clearly more challenging than last year. while incorporating several new coaches including a new OC and play-caller.
that's a lot to deal with. Now, can the Gophers find answers for all those questions? Yes, they certainly can. But I want to see it. There is a difference between optimism and blind faith.
But I also consider myself a realist.
Sure, I can paint a scenario where everything goes right for the Gophers - but I can also envision a scenario where some things go wrong.
The Gophers are replacing one of the best - if not the best - RB's in the history of the program. They are replacing an All-American C who could be a 1st-round NFL draft pick. those are pretty significant losses to fill. and that's not counting 2 other starters on the OL, a starting LB and at least two starters in the secondary.
and they are facing a schedule that, on paper, is clearly more challenging than last year. while incorporating several new coaches including a new OC and play-caller.
that's a lot to deal with. Now, can the Gophers find answers for all those questions? Yes, they certainly can. But I want to see it. There is a difference between optimism and blind faith.
RememberMurray
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Wisconsin, Purdue, Nebraska all have new head coaches, and entirely new coaching staffs with entirely new cultures to install.
Wisconsin, Purdue , Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois will all have brand new QBs at the helm.
Illinois will have a brand-new defensive coordinator.
Every year, every team in college football has turnover in players. Take a look at all the players that are leaving other B1G West teams. It's an impressive list.
Pointing these things out is not "blind faith" — those are simply the facts. Constantly looking at the dark side isn't realism. It might even be characterized as blind pessimism.
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PMWinSTP
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More challenging to get eight regular season wins? I disagree.
gopherbadgerman
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He was average to slightly above average outside of 2019. But we are all entitled to our own opinions. He had a lot of longevity.
bleedsmaroonandgold
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7.5 feels about right. Coming in at 7 or less would be disappointing. Last year felt a little disappointing with some losses I think we should have been able to win, but factor in a tougher schedule 8 regular season wins feels like a pretty fair expectation.
Under Fleck, the Gophers have typically risen to the challenge and are competitive in big games. We lose a lot of talent and experience, yes, but cfb is fluid and there will be "next man up" players that we have little idea about right now who will be big time contributors. In my years of experience I've never watched the program remain so consistently static in terms of performance over a multi year period on defense. Offense is a little bit different, but even there with the ball control offense, we've been in almost every loss to the end minus a few exceptions.
It's my opinion that, based on their body of work over the past few years, it's realistic to expect this team to get eight wins and steal one from Michigan, for instance, at home, and it not be unbridled fantasy.
Now, I'm pretty sure you're not dumb enough to tell me that schedule strength isn't very relevant to success. Below is a simple numerical presentation of our overall winning percentages paired with schedule strength (taken from College Football at Sports Reference) for the last nine full seasons. The schedule strength includes all games including bowls.
Our average schedule strength over that period was 2.73. When we were not too far above that average, we tended to have good years. When we were well above that average, we had our least successful years of the period.
I think our strength of schedule next year, at least on paper, is probably as tough as 2015 or 2017. Now, I have a great deal of faith in Fleck & Company and I think they will do better than Kill/Claeys did in 2015 and Fleck himself did in 2017 but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a lower level of success than the past three full seasons.
Now, there's my logic. If you don't like it, that's not my problem.
When will the prediction be 10 wins? Not sure how 8 wins every year will be good enough for the price tag fleck has. At some point it should be reloads, not rebuild. We seem to perform the same no matter the schedule. 8 wins again?
GophersInIowa
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I would not be shocked with anywhere from 6-10 wins. If AK takes a big step forward, the OL is at least solid and we can get more of a pass rush on defense, I can easily see 9-10 regular season wins. If not all or none of those things happen, we're probably looking at a 6 win season.
btowngopher
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What price tag? He doesn’t get paid like a P5 coach that is regularly winning 10 games.
GophersInIowa
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Yeah he's getting paid about where he should be in relation to others.
Roland Brooks
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Amen
That's simply not true. See my presentation of winning percentage paired with schedule strength for the past nine full years. We don't do as well when we have very tough schedules and that shouldn't be at all surprising. Give that next year's schedule, at least on paper, might be as tough as any we've had in the past nine years, 8 or 9 wins (including a bowl game) would be better than we have done with similar schedules over that period.
I do understand that we probably should have done better in 2022 given our comparatively weak schedule.
If you're not including the bowl game, I'd be pretty shocked with 10 wins. If you're including the bowl game, I wouldn't be so shocked but very happily surprised. All those things you mentioned are about us but it's never just about us, is it? Next year likely features one of the toughest schedules we've had in recent history and anyone should understand that tougher schedules are negatively correlated with success for most teams.
All the stuff you mention is about "us" but it's never just about us; it's also about our opponents. I realize that's difficult for uber homers to understand because they simply don't pay much attention to the opposition. We went 9-4 last year with our easiest schedule in nine years that I examined (see my presentation above). 2021's schedule was harder but still similar to our nine year average. Next season's schedule could be head and shoulders above the last two years and similar to our toughest of the last nine years; at least it looks that way right now.
Texan Gopher
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I ran a company that helped promote the sandwich shop at certain events at big companies around Houston. I have met you and your wife before. You also got me and my two brothers-in-law on the Golf Club of Houston a week after the Houston Open tournament was there.
As the talent goes deeper across the board injuries become less important. Every team has injuries but good teams show little change on the field. They plug in comparable players.
Ohio State loses running backs and receivers but it's usually not talked about much. Team doesn't change.
The biggest boost I see for Gophers this year is better depth, not just numbers but talent.
If you see a scenario where some things go wrong for us, then do you also see a scenario where everything goes perfectly, all year, for all 12 of our opponents? It only matters if we have injury losses, bad breaks, and mistakes if the other guys are perfect. Not likely.
Football is unpredictable and players are prone to mistakes and injuries. We are getting stronger through depth. We'll be OK for most of that really strong on paper schedule.
We are not rebuilding. We are replacing with experienced, talented guys. You could call it reloading.
ergopher
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Agreed. Every year under Fleck has given me more and more optimism regarding this team’s depth and overall talent, especially in the scope of how we’ve recruited. I can’t help but wonder what was if we had stayed injury-free the last couple of years, but it’s a great sign for the long-term sustainability of the program that we’re able to take some big hits and still put up solid finishes.
PMWinSTP
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It's harder because two teams skew it that way. Gophs absolutely can win eight of the remaining 10.
Yes, we could win 8 of the remaining 10 and that would be a very good showing. Our non-conference is much harder than usual as well. We also can't count on Michigan State being the pushover they were early this past season.
The only possible bright spot I see in next year's schedule is that other west teams may be a bit unsettled with the coaching changes. I'm glad we play Nebraska in the first game. We could actually have a harder overall schedule but an easier Western Division schedule.
Finally, there is always the possibility of unexpected losses which happen often enough. In the spring of 2021, no one saw Bowling Green and Illinois as losses. In the spring of 2022, most probably didn't expect to lose to Purdue and probably not Illinois for the second consecutive year.
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GophersInIowa
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Of course it isn’t just about us. But if AK plays well, with the talent around him and the defense can find a consistent pass rush, we’re a top 20 team.
With all the uncertainty in the west with so many coaching changes, I think it’s very much possible.
A little bit of homerism? Probably. But it’s the offseason so it’s fun to speculate.
RememberMurray
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Regarding this "much tougher schedule" which some posters keep droning on and on about:
— Yes, the non-conference schedule is tougher than last year. But the question is: how much tougher, really? Because, unless it is so tough that the Gophers will actually lose one or more non-conference games, it is irrelevant to win total projections. Check out Fleck's record in non-conference games. I'd say we'll be favorites in all three non-conference games.
— The B1G schedule is obviously tougher, yes. Or... is it?
Let's go ahead and call the Michigan and Ohio State games as two losses, for the sake of argument.
The rest of the schedule shows exactly the same teams as in 2022. But even though the opponents are the same, things have changed for those schools.
New coaching staffs, new cultures and new personnel in Wisconsin, Purdue and Nebraska. New quarterback, running back, and defensive coordinator in Illinois. Since two of our losses last season were to Purdue and Illinois, it is worth pondering just how well those two teams, specifically, will respond to fundamental changes to their programs. And then there's Iowa. We have outplayed the Hawkeyes recently, only to lose very close contests. I for one just can't see that streak continuing, on and on and on. And Wisconsin, our other main rival? Moving on from the successful Alvarez model will be a truly colossal change. Would you expect the transition to be seamless?
If we're assuming losses to Michigan and Ohio State, and a 3-0 record in non-conference play, do you see an additional 3 losses (for a B1G record of 4-5) in the 2023 B1G schedule? Because that's what would need to happen for this team to fail to achieve 8 wins in 2023. When was the last season Fleck had a losing record in B1G play?
— Yes, the non-conference schedule is tougher than last year. But the question is: how much tougher, really? Because, unless it is so tough that the Gophers will actually lose one or more non-conference games, it is irrelevant to win total projections. Check out Fleck's record in non-conference games. I'd say we'll be favorites in all three non-conference games.
— The B1G schedule is obviously tougher, yes. Or... is it?
Let's go ahead and call the Michigan and Ohio State games as two losses, for the sake of argument.
The rest of the schedule shows exactly the same teams as in 2022. But even though the opponents are the same, things have changed for those schools.
New coaching staffs, new cultures and new personnel in Wisconsin, Purdue and Nebraska. New quarterback, running back, and defensive coordinator in Illinois. Since two of our losses last season were to Purdue and Illinois, it is worth pondering just how well those two teams, specifically, will respond to fundamental changes to their programs. And then there's Iowa. We have outplayed the Hawkeyes recently, only to lose very close contests. I for one just can't see that streak continuing, on and on and on. And Wisconsin, our other main rival? Moving on from the successful Alvarez model will be a truly colossal change. Would you expect the transition to be seamless?
If we're assuming losses to Michigan and Ohio State, and a 3-0 record in non-conference play, do you see an additional 3 losses (for a B1G record of 4-5) in the 2023 B1G schedule? Because that's what would need to happen for this team to fail to achieve 8 wins in 2023. When was the last season Fleck had a losing record in B1G play?
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— Yes, the non-conference schedule is tougher than last year. But the question is: how much tougher, really? Because, unless it is so tough that the Gophers will actually lose one or more non-conference games, it is irrelevant to win total projections. Check out Fleck's record in non-conference games. I'd say we'll be favorites in all three non-conference games.
I'm fully aware of Fleck's record in non-conference games. That record didn't prevent us from losing to Bowling Green. Fleck has never had a non-conference schedule this difficult during his time here either. If we win all three of them in the fall, that will be more impressive than any early season non-conference performance to date under Fleck.
-If we're assuming losses to Michigan and Ohio State, and a 3-0 record in non-conference play, do you see an additional 3 losses (for a B1G record of 4-5) in the 2023 B1G schedule?
It's nonsensical to say "do you see X amount of losses on the schedule?" or "which games aren't 'winnable?' I didn't see Nebraska and Illinois as losses in 2018. I didn't see Bowling Green and Illinois as losses in 2021. I didn't see Purdue as a loss in 2022 and I didn't think we'd lose to Illinois two years in a row. I also believed we would beat Iowa this past season. Unlike some of you, I've learned that my expectations can be wrong so I prefer to temper them. I've also learned that the term "winnable" should be declared ex-post. A game was "winnable" if you won it.
The irony of all of this is that you're exactly the kind of person who will be claiming during the season that we're performing pretty well given the challenges if our wins fall below the rosier expectations next fall.
As far as me "droning on," some of you are slow learners so I have to repeat myself.