Big Beast to the Big Least???

[Pewterschmidt]

Maybe...

The Big East is the unquestioned top conference this season. 4 teams in the Elite Eight is beyond impressive. I fully expect 3 of the Final Four teams to be from that conference as well. Big East fans should be proud of their league. However, this isn't a trend. This was a perfect storm. The top teams in the league were dominated by seniors and had an unusual influx of talented freshman this season. One could argue that it's possible that the top 6 teams in the conference lose their 2 best players this offseason with the exception of Syracuse. Also, the Big East had once of it's poorest recruiting classes coming in next year. Villanova has one of the top 5 classes in the country but they stand out from the other teams. There is no incoming freshman on the level of Samuals, Ebanks, Walker, or Monroe (all ranked higher than the highest rated incoming freshman in this year's class). Basically what I'm saying is the Big East will take an incredible step backwards next year. It appears like Villanova will be a top 5-10 team and Syracuse might be top 10 as well but that's about it. One could argue that never has there been a greater difference in quality of play between two BCS conferences in a season than the difference between the Big East and the SEC. I could argue that not only will the gap close next year but the SEC might actually become the better of the 2. That's how much of a dropoff I expect.

Here are the traditional top teams in the Big East and what they lose and what's coming in (Rivals rankings next to incoming player if they're ranked):

Louisville
Seniors - Terrence Williams, Andre McGee
Likely Gone - Earl Clark
Maybe - Samardo Samuels
Incoming - Peyton Siva(49), Rakeen Buckles(40), Mike Marra, Stephan Van Treese

UConn
Seniors - Jeff Adrien, AJ Price, Craig Austrie
Likely Gone - Hasheem Thabeet
Maybe - Stanley Robinson
Incoming - Alex Oriakhi(21), Jamal Coomgs-McDaniel(65)

Pitt
Seniors - Levance Fields, Sam Young, Tyrell Biggs
Likely Gone - DeJuan Blair
Incoming - Dante Taylor(24), Lamar Patterson(109), JJ Richardson, Talib Zanna

Villanova
Seniors - Dante Cunningham, Shance Clark
Maybe - Scottie Reynolds
Incoming - Mouphtaoy Yarou(14 - highest rated Big East freshman according to Rivals), Maalik Mayns(25), Dominic Cheek(16), Isiah Armwood(62)

Syracuse
Seniors - Kristof Ongenaet
Likely Gone - Jonny Flynn
Incoming - DaShonte Riley(121), Brandon Triche, James Southerland

Marquette
Seniors - Dominic James, Dwight Burke, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews,
Incoming - Erik Williams(99), Jeronne Maymon(46), Junior Cadougan(60), Dwight Buycks, Brett Roseboro

West Virginia
Seniors - Alex Ruoff
Maybe - Devin Ebanks
Incoming - Dan Jennings, Deniz Kilicli, Dalton Pepper(133), Casey Mitchell

Notre Dame
Seniors - Ryan Ayers, Luke Zeller, Zach Hillesland, Kyle McAlarney
Incoming - Mike Broghammer, Joey Brooks, Jack Cooley, Tom Knight

Georgetown
Seniors - Jessie Sapp
Likely Gone - DeJuan Summers
Maybe - Greg Monroe
Incoming - Hollis Thompson(52)

Actually, 2 of the better teams may be Cincy and Rutgers. Cincy returns almost everyone assuming Deonta Vaughn returns and Rutgers has 2 good freshman coming back in Greg Echenique and Mike Rosario (plus they have a 4 star freshman coming in). Of the 9 teams listed above, only Syracuse, West Virginia, and possibly Villanova won't have crippling departures. I expect the 16-team Big East to take a considerable step back nest season...to the point where Pitt, UConn, and Louisville might turn into bubble teams and Marquette becomes an afterthought. Providence loses their top 2 players so I'm discounting them and the rest of the bloated league (St. John's, Depaul, South Florida, and Seton Hall) will be just as obscure as this past season.

 

[Friend Of Tubby]

Cincy

Senior Mike Williams gone (won't petition NCAA for 6th year to play 4th season of eligibility).

Sophomore Alvin Mitchell kicked off the team.

But 4 starters are back - Bishop, Gates, Davis, Vaughn.

And redshirt frosh PG Cashmere Wright will be a starter.

Onetime Gopher PG recruit Darius Smith may choose the Bearcats.

 

[MadisonRaisedGopherCrazed]

Good preview of the Big East future. From this info it definitely looks like the Big East has a chance at not being the leaders of the free world next year...It'd be really weird if Pitt UConn and Louisville were bubble teams next year. They all seem to have decent recruiting classes coming in (No Greg Monroes or Samardo Samuels coming in but decent). It'd just be so hard to picture those teams fighting for bubble spots after watching them dominate this whole year. But hey, that would open up three #1 seeds for yours and my favorite team(and with UNC losing a bunch of talent that's four)

 

[coolhandgopher]

Good stuff Pewter

I was thinking that Marquette and Pitt were going to be losing quite a bit, but didn´t really consider that Louisville, UConn, and possibly Georgetown would take big hits. One thing we need to consider is that Notre Dame´s adding a couple talented tranfers in Ben Hansborough (I think it´s Ben, Tyler´s shooting guard brother from Miss St.) and Scott Martin (from Purdue). They could bounce back nicely next season, although defense still seems to be an issue.

Edit: Also keep in mind that Villanova is adding Taylor King, sharpshooter transfer from Duke.

 

[Pewterschmidt]

Forgot about the transfers. Hansbrough and Martin with Harangody and Jackson make the Irish a respectable team. I can't imagine they'll end up as a 4 seed or higher but at least they have the weapons to redeem themselves and make the tourney after a hugely disappointing season.

King makes Nova better but they would still be a top 5-10 team without him. I suspect Nova is the undisputed preseason pick in the league if Reynolds returns. Without him, they're still top 15 material.

It'll be interesting to see if the reputation of the league causes many of the teams to become overrated at the start of next season. Their just aren't the replacements coming in to fill the void left by the numerous departures. One would think that the Big East would have had a banner year on the recruiting trail given how much playing time will be available at these big name schools. That certainly hasn't been the case.

I think Pitino's system will always keep Louisville respectable so maybe I'm discounting the Cards too quickly but Clark and Williams(2 best players IMO on the team) are gone as is their best defensive player in McGee. If Samuels leaves as well, they just don't have the horses to be seen as anything close to a top 20 team. It would not shock me to see 2 of the 3 #1 seeds this year not make the tourney next season.

 

[Holy Man]

Welcome

to college basketball in the new millenium. Rosters change over so quickly that teams and conferences can go from worst to first and first to worst over night. It makes coaching a lot harder job. It makes recruting a much more difficult job, too, as staffs decide whether to go for the likely one and dones or the solid four year types. The teams that can figure out a balance there will be on top. I guess that's why they pay them big bucks and offer no job security.

I guess this is why listening to the ACC schills gets so under Hodger's skin, and mine, too, but not as deep. No conference will dominate for years at a time any more, and the talking heads should acknowledge that.

 

[JDGopher]

I see the logic in that they will lose a lot of senior and underclassmen to the draft, but I think the part about poor recruiting is overblown. Yes, they may not be as top heavy as in the past, but that does not mean that these are not good classes.

Everyone is very high on our upcoming class, as I am. But our class is very near to the ones you say are down. We bring the 19th best player (White) and 95th (Williams). I would say getting two players between 30 and 60 is fairly comparable to that, and also is comparable in averages. Obviously, a top 10 player is probably going to bring more impact than two 30 ranked players. But it usually seems that anywhere from about 15-100, the occurrence of truly great freshman is not necessarily correlated to rank. So UCONN, Louisville, Nova, Pitt and arguably Marquette have recruiting classes similar to our own highly regarded class.

However, as you made clear, the big difference is definitely in the level of talent lost. The BE will almost certainly be hit hardest by lost talent, including early entries. We will see if this creates a fall, or if they have more depth than we think.