Ben Johnson Reasonable Expectations

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I'm never a fan of black and white "need x amount of wins, etc." type standards, but this all seems pretty reasonable to me.
 

MennoSota said:
History shows us that winning at Minnesota takes time (and often cheating). Clem is the last coach to have the program competitive. That was 20 years ago. 😱🤯

It is unrealistic to think a first time head coach is going to leap frog the coaching pedigree in the B1G and move quickly to the top. Whether we like it or not, UMN is not a dream destination for any basketball player who wasn't raised in maroon and gold. This program will only move up through a sustained process that is going to take time. No shortcuts for this program. This is not what people here will want to believe or hear, but I think it's the only way to go with this particular program (unless you want to cheat again).
Ben Johnson has a plan for process and he has the patient personality to see the process to fulfillment. He is a rare coach in this regard. Pitino was always looking for a quick fix and either hit or missed. Johnson is going to be particular regarding who he wants and how it fits to plan. I am excited to see this plan worked out to completion. That completion is likely a 5 year plan at minimum. (Sorry to all you impatient folks.)
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Hired to recruit in a talent rich era with open transfers, has to make Tourney in year 3 or needs to be gone. History lesson completely irrelevant.
 

goldengophers said:
Hired to recruit in a talent rich era with open transfers, has to make Tourney in year 3 or needs to be gone. History lesson completely irrelevant.
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Expect to have a coaching carousel with your expectations.
 




gopherguy15 said:
I'm getting a little annoyed of some people on this board having the mindset that the transfer portal should always work. Newsflash, it doesn't. For every Eric Musselman and Nate Oats, there's 40 other coaches that dipped into the portal and couldn't get it to work. Even Texas, which had amazing transfer talent, struggled for large chunks this year, never fully got it to click, and went from a top 5 preseason ranking to losing in the 2nd round, and not by upset. Do not compare the Gophers right now to blue bloods or yearly contenders getting elite transfer talent. The Iowa State situation is far from the norm.
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Beard also lost his assistant coach who put together the Texas Tech team with spare parts and achieved better results. So maybe Beard wasn’t the reason they won at Tech?
 

Replacing Ben isn’t on my radar or in my thoughts. I’m expecting us to get to number 8 or better based on what I saw.
If we are bottom four next year I’ll probably be less confident about the future.

Circumstances gotta be a factor - if we lose projected starters for long periods or the season like this year…gotta be a factor.

I don’t see us Houston like- able to lose our two best players and still go deep in the NCAA Tournament or compete at even a mid level in the Big Ten. We need some good fortune health wise to get some momentum.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I want to see a season of no major injuries and a full roster of recruits/transfers that he wants in his program. He was down 1-2 starters before the season even started this last season in Fox and Ihnen.
I'd give him a full 5 years to grow as it's his first job. If after 3 years Coyle doesn't think it will work and he has the funds to hit a HR hire, by all means he should consider doing it at any time after year 3.
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The MN Sports Gods laugh....
 

MennoSota said:
History shows us that winning at Minnesota takes time (and often cheating). Clem is the last coach to have the program competitive. That was 20 years ago. 😱🤯

It is unrealistic to think a first time head coach is going to leap frog the coaching pedigree in the B1G and move quickly to the top. Whether we like it or not, UMN is not a dream destination for any basketball player who wasn't raised in maroon and gold. This program will only move up through a sustained process that is going to take time. No shortcuts for this program. This is not what people here will want to believe or hear, but I think it's the only way to go with this particular program (unless you want to cheat again).
Ben Johnson has a plan for process and he has the patient personality to see the process to fulfillment. He is a rare coach in this regard. Pitino was always looking for a quick fix and either hit or missed. Johnson is going to be particular regarding who he wants and how it fits to plan. I am excited to see this plan worked out to completion. That completion is likely a 5 year plan at minimum. (Sorry to all you impatient folks.)
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No one on here is expecting Ben to move the Gophers quickly to the top. Getting them to the NCAA tournament in year 3 and keeping them there means finishing 8th or better most years, sometimes even 9th or 10th. That would be a good start and more than reasonable to expect in the talent rich state of Minnesota.
 



Bob_Loblaw said:
Watching Arkansas and Iowa State play in the tournament has gotten me thinking about a question that I think will be really hard to answer in regards to Ben Johnson because of COVID, transfer portal and the state of the program he inherited.

I am in the camp that it isn't wise to judge him over the results of this year. He walked into a uniquely difficult position due to COVID year mixed with transfer portal and the ramifications of those departures will probably ripple for a couple of years. I'm not making excuses for him but I also don't want to move on from a coach prematurely over something completely outside of his control. I also believe that excitement can be generated around a program before it shows up in the W/L department (Fleck's 6-6 2018 team showed some of that).

So here is where I stand on when we should realistically be expecting results (W/L column) from Ben Johnson.

Year 1: All I cared about was the system and recruiting. For me, I liked the way we played and I'm pumped up about the recruits we have coming in.
Year 2: I expect recruiting to keep progressing forward. I expect much better portal players and if we finish lower than 10th in the Big 10, Ben Johnson's seat should increase a couple degrees (maybe luke warm).
Year 3: If we finish lower than 10th, Ben Johnson's seat should be really warm/hot.
Year 4: If we are bad again, he should be fired. If we are improved, but don't make the tourney, his seat should be warm.
Year 5: Tournament or bust.

If he makes the tournament or finishes over .500 in the Big 10 in any of the first years, that throws this all out and we'd be starting with a new set of expectations.

Is this fair? Is it "too fair"? How do yours differ?
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More than fair. I would expect 2 NCAA tourney births in the next 4 years. That’s my expectation
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Year 2: I expect recruiting to keep progressing forward. I expect much better portal players
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I think Ben got two outstanding portal players:

1. Payton was an incredible pickup, given our situation - especially for a player with one year of eligibility left and little to no hope of qualifying for the tourney

2. Battle was a superb pickup - he makes more sense as he can help build for 2 (or 3?) more years (potentially) - he has huge upside and could carry a tourney team

Yes, they both had MN ties. Don't care. In an ordinary year, that would be a haul in transfers. If he gets two of these types per year, you can't do a whole lot better than that.

And Loewe, Sutherlin and Stephens were all three Big Ten role players who could have contributed off the bench. Obviously not the studs you want as your top transfer/recruit, but again, if you are looking for a 7th or 8th man, those guys weren't just stone hands, no shoot, no effort, no talent guys.
 

MennoSota said:
Expect to have a coaching carousel with your expectations.
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Couldn’t agree more.
Bob_Loblaw said:
Watching Arkansas and Iowa State play in the tournament has gotten me thinking about a question that I think will be really hard to answer in regards to Ben Johnson because of COVID, transfer portal and the state of the program he inherited.

I am in the camp that it isn't wise to judge him over the results of this year. He walked into a uniquely difficult position due to COVID year mixed with transfer portal and the ramifications of those departures will probably ripple for a couple of years. I'm not making excuses for him but I also don't want to move on from a coach prematurely over something completely outside of his control. I also believe that excitement can be generated around a program before it shows up in the W/L department (Fleck's 6-6 2018 team showed some of that).

So here is where I stand on when we should realistically be expecting results (W/L column) from Ben Johnson.

Year 1: All I cared about was the system and recruiting. For me, I liked the way we played and I'm pumped up about the recruits we have coming in.
Year 2: I expect recruiting to keep progressing forward. I expect much better portal players and if we finish lower than 10th in the Big 10, Ben Johnson's seat should increase a couple degrees (maybe luke warm).
Year 3: If we finish lower than 10th, Ben Johnson's seat should be really warm/hot.
Year 4: If we are bad again, he should be fired. If we are improved, but don't make the tourney, his seat should be warm.
Year 5: Tournament or bust.

If he makes the tournament or finishes over .500 in the Big 10 in any of the first years, that throws this all out and we'd be starting with a new set of expectations.

Is this fair? Is it "too fair"? How do yours differ?
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I think this is fair. 3 year turnarounds aren’t unheard of but why would you want a new head coach every 3? I understand if that coach goes three straight years like Johnson’s first year.

Johnson has already shown he can recruit by snagging good instate talent. Johnson has also shown he will make his players play a tough 40 minutes. Hopefully next year it won’t actually be all 40 minutes.
 

GopherJake said:
I think Ben got two outstanding portal players:

1. Payton was an incredible pickup, given our situation - especially for a player with one year of eligibility left and little to no hope of qualifying for the tourney

2. Battle was a superb pickup - he makes more sense as he can help build for 2 (or 3?) more years (potentially) - he has huge upside and could carry a tourney team

Yes, they both had MN ties. Don't care. In an ordinary year, that would be a haul in transfers. If he gets two of these types per year, you can't do a whole lot better than that.

And Loewe, Sutherlin and Stephens were all three Big Ten role players who could have contributed off the bench. Obviously not the studs you want as your top transfer/recruit, but again, if you are looking for a 7th or 8th man, those guys weren't just stone hands, no shoot, no effort, no talent guys.
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We literally couldn't give away all of our scholarships and two of the guys we could get were backups at much lower level basketball. Our team built on transfer portal players took last place in the Big 10. This team, built by grad transfers, took last in the Big 10.

IF you're a Big 10 team and you're handing out significant minutes to a grad transfer and you fail to use your scholarships and add Ogele and Daniels caliber players - - that's not good enough. I think Ben's next classes will be better. They have to be.
 



60's Guy said:
Replacing Ben isn’t on my radar or in my thoughts. I’m expecting us to get to number 8 or better based on what I saw.
If we are bottom four next year I’ll probably be less confident about the future.

Circumstances gotta be a factor - if we lose projected starters for long periods or the season like this year…gotta be a factor.

I don’t see us Houston like- able to lose our two best players and still go deep in the NCAA Tournament or compete at even a mid level in the Big Ten. We need some good fortune health wise to get some momentum.
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Been a gopher fan for well over 4 decades. I gotta say we are due for some good fortune health wise.
 

Great topic and examples bob.

Next season is key, imo. Gotta get high impact portal players and then win.

Also have to hope the fr can contribute quite well right away.

No reason to not make the ncaa by year 3.
 

I would say Ben Johnson needs to have his squad as at least on the bubble for a tourney invite in year 3 and for sure get a NIT bid. Year 4 needs the tourney invite without it in year 5 his seat will be warm.
 

Since recruiting was so awful previously, I want to see recruiting improving first. Honestly, I'm not impressed by next year's recruiting class. Everyone seems middle of the road. Don't get fooled by comparisons to Li'l Ricky's classes. I need to see the shine of Ben's recruiting skills improve. He needs to blossom as a recruiter without the yolk of Pitino Ignorance on his shoulders.
 

As soon as Ben is competent at his job we’ll fire him. Never underestimate the U’s ability to f things up.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Watching Arkansas and Iowa State play in the tournament has gotten me thinking about a question that I think will be really hard to answer in regards to Ben Johnson because of COVID, transfer portal and the state of the program he inherited.

I am in the camp that it isn't wise to judge him over the results of this year. He walked into a uniquely difficult position due to COVID year mixed with transfer portal and the ramifications of those departures will probably ripple for a couple of years. I'm not making excuses for him but I also don't want to move on from a coach prematurely over something completely outside of his control. I also believe that excitement can be generated around a program before it shows up in the W/L department (Fleck's 6-6 2018 team showed some of that).

So here is where I stand on when we should realistically be expecting results (W/L column) from Ben Johnson.

Year 1: All I cared about was the system and recruiting. For me, I liked the way we played and I'm pumped up about the recruits we have coming in.
Year 2: I expect recruiting to keep progressing forward. I expect much better portal players and if we finish lower than 10th in the Big 10, Ben Johnson's seat should increase a couple degrees (maybe luke warm).
Year 3: If we finish lower than 10th, Ben Johnson's seat should be really warm/hot.
Year 4: If we are bad again, he should be fired. If we are improved, but don't make the tourney, his seat should be warm.
Year 5: Tournament or bust.

If he makes the tournament or finishes over .500 in the Big 10 in any of the first years, that throws this all out and we'd be starting with a new set of expectations.

Is this fair? Is it "too fair"? How do yours differ?
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I agree with your expectations.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
We literally couldn't give away all of our scholarships and two of the guys we could get were backups at much lower level basketball. Our team built on transfer portal players took last place in the Big 10. This team, built by grad transfers, took last in the Big 10.

IF you're a Big 10 team and you're handing out significant minutes to a grad transfer and you fail to use your scholarships and add Ogele and Daniels caliber players - - that's not good enough. I think Ben's next classes will be better. They have to be.
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Most lawyers know how to read and discern. Not you though.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
We literally couldn't give away all of our scholarships and two of the guys we could get were backups at much lower level basketball. Our team built on transfer portal players took last place in the Big 10. This team, built by grad transfers, took last in the Big 10.

IF you're a Big 10 team and you're handing out significant minutes to a grad transfer and you fail to use your scholarships and add Ogele and Daniels caliber players - - that's not good enough. I think Ben's next classes will be better. They have to be.
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I will add a few things on this, but to be clear, your main point is the class has to be better and I fully agree.
The staff would not compromise on who they took last year. Being a good basketball player was obviously important, but if you didn’t fit what he wanted culturally, you weren’t offered. El Amin is an example. He could’ve given us some pretty valuable minutes off the bench, but it wasn’t the right fit for either side. That’s how we ended up taking Daniels. He fit the culture they want to build. I think the staff obviously expected another center and for Daniels to be used as more of a 3rd center, but it happens sometimes when that much turnover happens. Ogele was a late add and a body after Ihnen tore his ACL. Not excuses cause the staff made their bed this year and would not compromise. This year they will only need to add 4 and have the whole staff in place. I don’t see how the roster cannot be better honestly.
 

I would love to see Bubble/tournament in year 3, but I think that is an unreasonable expectation at this point given the circumstances of his hire and how he assembled his year 1 roster. Battle is a good building block, but I’m not ready to count on a core of Battle (as a fifth year senior), Payne (as a sophomore), and Carrington (as a sophomore) getting us to the tournament, regardless of who transfers in.

In his first year, BJ threw away an opportunity to bring in young players who may have been developed into serviceable and dependable players by year 3. Year 2 feels like what year 1 should have felt like - a complete unknown with some pieces that will be around for a while. IMO, BJ was a bad hire because he had a steeper hill to climb than others - doesn’t mean he’s not a good coach or will turn us into contenders…. But I think he needs an extra year to build than someone who is a name brand. Seat won’t get truly warm for me until we are four years in without sniffing the bubble. Roster construction/development could accelerate the warmth for me. Tournament by year 5 is a must.
 

goldengophers said:
It's all accelerated now, no one is asking to be 21-22 ISU but this can all be understood much more quickly.
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I can agree to some extent but it's not like the transfer portal makes everything easy. From what I can see, recruiting good players from the transfer portal is even more competitive than recruiting good players from the high school/prep ranks. The reason is that these players have a record at the D1 level that makes them easier to evaluate and project. If we were among a minority of programs who actively recruited from the transfer portal, it might be easier but even the best high school/prep recruiters in the country (like Calipari and Coach K) have gone to the transfer portal for talent.

There are always going to be less heralded freshman recruits who outperform their prep status (like Zach Edey or Jordan Murphy). A school like Minnesota can be a serious contender for these types of players as freshman recruits but would be far less likely to land them as college freshmen or sophomore transfer recruits. Payton Sparks, a freshman center at Ball State, entered the transfer portal a couple of weeks ago. He received no P6 offers coming from high school but he had a very good freshman year, especially for a big man. Within a day or two of entering the portal, it was reported that seven P6 programs reached out to him along with a couple of non-P6 but higher profile programs like Cincinnati and Wichita State. Neal Quinn, a junior center from Lafayette, apparently was offered only by Lafayette coming out of high school. He got a bunch of higher level offers within days of entering the portal.
 

Minnesota is in the Big Ten. Minnesota has excellent facilities. Minnesota has a history of excellent attendance. There are lots of schools where it snows....we can't compete with Duke and Kentucky for recruits, add maybe a dozen more but we got more to offer than most/many schools in the country.

We had Top 25 teams under Pitino. Minnesota can recruit. Richard had major roster construction issues. He played 6 and 7 guys because either we had no depth or he chose not to give guys minutes. Ben due to year one circumstances was in the same situation. Lose guys to injury or sickness or other reasons and you can't win unless you recruited a roster full of capable players.

We can recruit players to play as a team and be a tournament team. It's coaching, it's culture, it's roster construction philosophy. A lot of these underdog NCAA teams play 10 guys. I believe in 2022 that's how it's done. We have been playing 6 and 7 for too long. Somebody gets hurt and next man up is possible if the guy has had minutes...when you ask that of someone who has not played...doesn't often work.

Ben's philosophy is a very big key.

Saint Peters 10 guys with 10 minutes a game
Texas Tech. 10 guys
Murray State. 9 guys
Houston 8 but two best are hurt or would be 10
New Mexico St 12 guys 8 or more minutes
Richmond 9 guys 8 or more minutes
TCU 10 guys plus a big minutes guy hurt so 11

This is critical...how many guys do we play next year?
 
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I'm not optimistic about the future.

IMO, no more that 50/50 that they match this year's B1G record next year. Nor do I see them winning more than seven or eight conference games in any of the next 4 seasons.
 

60's Guy said:
Minnesota is in the Big Ten. Minnesota has excellent facilities. Minnesota has a history of excellent attendance. There are lots of schools where it snows....we can't compete with Duke and Kentucky for recruits, add maybe a dozen more but we got more to offer than most/many schools in the country.

We had Top 25 teams under Pitino. Minnesota can recruit. Richard had major roster construction issues. He played 6 and 7 guys because either we had no depth or he chose not to give guys minutes. Ben due to year one circumstances was in the same situation. Lose guys to injury or sickness or other reasons and you can't win unless you recruited a roster full of capable players.

We can recruit players to play as a team and be a tournament team. It's coaching, it's culture, it's roster construction philosophy. A lot of these underdog NCAA teams play 10 guys. I believe in 2022 that's how it's done. We have been playing 6 and 7 for too long. Somebody gets hurt and next man up is possible if the guy has had minutes...when you ask that of someone who has not played...doesn't often work.

Ben's philosophy is a very big key.
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PRESENTLY THERE ARE IN MY OPINION AT LEAST 40 BETTER OPPORTUNITIES. But you can out scout people for prospects, out work them , develop them better. Fit is so important. ONE kid and or his parents may prefer a college campus environment. Many are conservative, many are brand driven. These are really tough jobs. But when you hire the right guy [THEY ARE VERY RARE) Then you can achieve sustainable success. That has never been done here.
 


Mikie S said:
I'm not optimistic about the future.

IMO, no more that 50/50 that they match this year's B1G record next year. Nor do I see them winning more than seven or eight conference games in any of the next 4 seasons.
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On what are you basing your pessimism? There are still 4-5 players who will be added this off-season. I would like to better understand your reasoning for making such a pessimistic prediction.
 

60's Guy said:
Minnesota is in the Big Ten. Minnesota has excellent facilities. Minnesota has a history of excellent attendance. There are lots of schools where it snows....we can't compete with Duke and Kentucky for recruits, add maybe a dozen more but we got more to offer than most/many schools in the country.

We had Top 25 teams under Pitino. Minnesota can recruit. Richard had major roster construction issues. He played 6 and 7 guys because either we had no depth or he chose not to give guys minutes. Ben due to year one circumstances was in the same situation. Lose guys to injury or sickness or other reasons and you can't win unless you recruited a roster full of capable players.

We can recruit players to play as a team and be a tournament team. It's coaching, it's culture, it's roster construction philosophy. A lot of these underdog NCAA teams play 10 guys. I believe in 2022 that's how it's done. We have been playing 6 and 7 for too long. Somebody gets hurt and next man up is possible if the guy has had minutes...when you ask that of someone who has not played...doesn't often work.

Ben's philosophy is a very big key.

Saint Peters 10 guys with 10 minutes a game
Texas Tech. 10 guys
Murray State. 9 guys
Houston 8 but two best are hurt or would be 10
New Mexico St 12 guys 8 or more minutes
Richmond 9 guys 8 or more minutes
TCU 10 guys plus a big minutes guy hurt so 11

This is critical...how many guys do we play next year?
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I don't totally disagree but I don't think going deep into the bench is as key as you think it is.

Just Yesterday in terms of significant minutes
North Carolina played 7
Villanova played 7
Providence played 7
Kansas played 7
Miami basically went with 6

You don't have to go deep if you have the right mix of talent. Our problem this year was that our front court was decimated by injuries so our roster balance was all messed up.

Obviously we aren't going to draw the same level of talent as some of those blue bloods but to me 8 regulars with a couple fill in guys is an ideal setup for basketball. Have said it before, I would loved to have seen what this current Gopher team could have done at full strength. We were competitive in so many games in spite of no depth and very little size.

Will be interesting to see what this team looks like heading into 22-23 and I am hopeful that we get to see whatever roster BJ assembles at full strength.
 


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