Ben Johnson is a Disaster

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FYI - it was tough to do given how horrific Iowa's defense is, but Minnesota managed to finish 14th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The #245 on offense was 64 points lower than 13th place Rutgers (who has the #1 defense in the conference, #5 in the country).

The #194 defense was edged out by Iowa at #183 (who has the #1 offense in the conference, #3 in the country). 10/14 B1G teams are in the top quintile defensively. I mention that because even a 100-rank improvement wouldn't crack the top 10 of the B1G. It's just a massive chasm.

The moral of the story regarding Iowa and Rutgers is to at least be good at something.
 

formerlybis said:
FYI - it was tough to do given how horrific Iowa's defense is, but Minnesota managed to finish 14th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

The #245 on offense was 64 points lower than 13th place Rutgers (who has the #1 defense in the conference, #5 in the country).

The #194 defense was edged out by Iowa at #183 (who has the #1 offense in the conference, #3 in the country). 10/14 B1G teams are in the top quintile defensively. I mention that because even a 100-rank improvement wouldn't crack the top 10 of the B1G. It's just a massive chasm.

The moral of the story regarding Iowa and Rutgers is to at least be good at something.
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Here's the good news- even with this talent- we don't have to be this bad or anywhere close to it next year on defense. That part is coaching and experience and I find it hard to believe that with Thorson on staff we can't become average or better in the Big Ten.

On offense we need to get the ball in the paint more and take better shots. Point guard wanted!
 

bga1 said:
Here's the good news- even with this talent- we don't have to be this bad or anywhere close to it next year on defense. That part is coaching and experience and I find it hard to believe that with Thorson on staff we can't become average or better in the Big Ten.

On offense we need to get the ball in the paint more and take better shots. Point guard wanted!
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That's a lot of faith in Thorson. You understand that most of the other B1G teams have coaches that emphasize defense, too. It's a tough league in that regard. Getting into the top half of the conference requires a gargantuan jump. Getting only into 12th would be a pretty big jump. It's hard to overstate how bad they currently are relative to the league.
 

formerlybis said:
Another reason he may not be in at the end of the game is that he's already fouled out. He was at a rate of over 5 fouls per 40 minutes in conference play. I'm not sure how to coach physically aggressive players how to keep that mentality while also not fouling, but that needs to happen if he's going to play 30 minutes per game.
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Combination of coaching and experience will help Payne learn how to be aggressive without fouling. In high school he probably rarely had to go up against players that could match his size and strength so it will take some time to adjust to a more physical brand of basketball.
 





Bad Gopher said:
$8 million!!
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It remains stunning to me that Coyle/the U of M gave Ben a 8 million dollar buyout clause. There is no way that Ben would not have signed a deal with a 2 million dollar buyout or less. He tried and did not get a deal for less than 1 million at Northern Illinois(?). Who came up with this deal? Whoever "negotiated" this deal should be fired.
 

leib0039 said:
It remains stunning to me that Coyle/the U of M gave Ben a 8 million dollar buyout clause. There is no way that Ben would not have signed a deal with a 2 million dollar buyout or less. He tried and did not get a deal for less than 1 million at Northern Illinois(?). Who came up with this deal? Whoever "negotiated" this deal should be fired.
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Fact. Tho I have yet to be blown away.
 



bga1 said:
It remains stunning to me that Coyle/the U of M gave Ben a 8 million dollar buyout clause. There is no way that Ben would not have signed a deal with a 2 million dollar buyout or less. He tried and did not get a deal for less than 1 million at Northern Illinois(?). Who came up with this deal? Whoever "negotiated" this deal should be fired.
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They had to pay the "going rate" for a B1G coach or the Jim Souhan's of the world would let them have it. And honestly hiring any coach and paying him half of what every other coach in the league makes is never going to happen or look good. He was/is still 13th or 14th in the conference.

But they did NOT need to give him an extension after year 1. That alone makes it $2 million higher and was completely foolish.
 

MNVCGUY said:
There were people that hated the Fleck hire.....couldn't stand him and complained about him all the time. There are still a few of those around but for the most part the Fleck bashers have faded out because he has had a good deal of success.

The same will happen for Johnson if he is able to turn things around. In the end, even those that are the most vocal in their dislike of the Johnson hire will be ok with the hire IF the team starts having success.
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What I like about PJ is how he has led us to the top of the Western Conference! That and some top flight bowl games , like the recent Yankee Bowl allows me to overlook the hyper active arm waving while he is running up and down the sidelines calling timeouts Willy Nilly.
 

howeda7 said:
They had to pay the "going rate" for a B1G coach or the Jim Souhan's of the world would let them have it. And honestly hiring any coach and paying him half of what every other coach in the league makes is never going to happen or look good. He was/is still 13th or 14th in the conference.

But they did NOT need to give him an extension after year 1. That alone makes it $2 million higher and was completely foolish.
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I get the pay him the 2 million bit, but not the 8 million dollar buyout.
 




bga1 said:
I get the pay him the 2 million bit, but not the 8 million dollar buyout.
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Next season is really a $2 million dollar bet that he what we've seen the last two years isn't an indication of his coaching.

If he turns it around, then he's obviously worth it.

If he isn't a good coach, paying him this year and having another terrible season only to fire him next year, doesn't really save us any money. There is a depreciation in the value of the program and it's a deeper hole to dig out of.

That said, if you strongly believe that next season will be terrible and end with him being fired, it's really only an illusion that you saved money on the buyout. The 2022 money - whether as part of a buyout or paid to Ben for coaching - is just as spent.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Next season is really a $2 million dollar bet that he what we've seen the last two years isn't an indication of his coaching.

If he turns it around, then he's obviously worth it.

If he isn't a good coach, paying him this year and having another terrible season only to fire him next year, doesn't really save us any money. There is a depreciation in the value of the program and it's a deeper hole to dig out of.

That said, if you strongly believe that next season will be terrible and end with him being fired, it's really only an illusion that you saved money on the buyout. The 2022 money - whether as part of a buyout or paid to Ben for coaching - is just as spent.
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How is it an illusion though?

So we will be paying Ben's total buyout at $8 Million, then paying the new coaches salary around $2-3 million, and then also likely paying the buyout for the new coach to the University he leaves (Which would likely apply dependent on the hire).

I'm all ears if that's not how it works, but I believe we'd be on the hook for all of that.

In the end you're just saving $4 million dollars I guess. All of the rest will be the same after next year.

This program is just not paying an $8 million buyout.
 
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Tubby Smith's buyout was $2.5 Million.

Pitino had a $1.75 million buyout but we didn't have to pay it after he moved over to New Mexico.

We aren't getting out of paying Ben his buyout because it's highly unlikely he gets another gig somewhere else. You can lock Ben in for year 3.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Next season is really a $2 million dollar bet that he what we've seen the last two years isn't an indication of his coaching.

If he turns it around, then he's obviously worth it.

If he isn't a good coach, paying him this year and having another terrible season only to fire him next year, doesn't really save us any money. There is a depreciation in the value of the program and it's a deeper hole to dig out of.

That said, if you strongly believe that next season will be terrible and end with him being fired, it's really only an illusion that you saved money on the buyout. The 2022 money - whether as part of a buyout or paid to Ben for coaching - is just as spent.
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My feeling is that you only fire him now if you have a big name coach in your back pocket. A name that you announce and fans say: ok we are back in. Otherwise I gamble one more year on him.
 

bga1 said:
I get the pay him the 2 million bit, but not the 8 million dollar buyout.
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After CBJ's 3rd year the buyout is 75% of his remaining base salary of $ 8MM, so $ 6MM. After 4 years buyout is 50% of the remaining base.
 

dbmn said:
After CBJ's 3rd year the buyout is 75% of his remaining base salary of $ 8MM, so $ 6MM. After 4 years buyout is 50% of the remaining base.
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After 3rd year he only has 2 years left so buyout is just under 4 Mil
 

I've watched sports for a lot of years, and the one thing I'd never do if I were a GM or AD is fire someone based on one season or one game. I've seen many make that mistake, and it's always a mistake. And I suppose the same thing is true of retaining someone: you shouldn't keep someone around just because of one win or one successful season. To wit: the U has been criticized for firing Tubby Smith in the wake of a NCAA tournament win. That's the faulty attitude I'm talking about: "How can you fire him?! He just won a game for you!" Obviously, his dismissal was based on a years-long body of work. Similarly, both Monson and Pitino had very good individual years within their tenure, but they couldn't sustain it. We'll end up seeing how UW plays this with Gard.

Where am I going with this? I'm not really sure, other than to say that it's hard to judge in the moment whether a good game in the BTT is a green shoot of spring or whether it's the exception that proves the rule of how bad this team has been this year: that a fleeting flash of competence and an actual win is so surprising and thrilling that maybe it only reinforces how bad things have been lately.
 

Bad Gopher said:
I've watched sports for a lot of years, and the one thing I'd never do if I were a GM or AD is fire someone based on one season or one game. I've seen many make that mistake, and it's always a mistake. And I suppose the same thing is true of retaining someone: you shouldn't keep someone around just because of one win or one successful season. To wit: the U has been criticized for firing Tubby Smith in the wake of a NCAA tournament win. That's the faulty attitude I'm talking about: "How can you fire him?! He just won a game for you!" Obviously, his dismissal was based on a years-long body of work. Similarly, both Monson and Pitino had very good individual years within their tenure, but they couldn't sustain it. We'll end up seeing how UW plays this with Gard.

Where am I going with this? I'm not really sure, other than to say that it's hard to judge in the moment whether a good game in the BTT is a green shoot of spring or whether it's the exception that proves the rule of how bad this team has been this year: that a fleeting flash of competence and an actual win is so surprising and thrilling that maybe it only reinforces how bad things have been lately.
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I'm with you on being careful about overreacting to individual games, or even seasons (though having a longer body of work helps keep outlier seasons in perspective). My big issue with the Tubby firing was that we kept him after back to back 6-12 years where we missed the tourney, then fired him when he came back and took us to the second round. If we weren't going to fire him after the 6-12 seasons, what was the bar for year 6? Did we bring back a guy coming off of back to back tournament misses with the idea that it was sweet 16 or bust? It must have been, because round of 32 wasn't enough. I was 100% on board with firing him after year 5, but I still scratch my head when I think about bringing him back after year 5 to fire him after winning a tourney game.

Even looking at full body of work, after 5 years, he went to 2 tourneys in 5 years and never got out of the first round. After 6 years, he had been to 3 in 6 years, and had a second round appearance to his name. So if we are firing/retaining based on full body of work, that full body was better when we fired him than it was one year prior when we kept him.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I'm with you on being careful about overreacting to individual games, or even seasons (though having a longer body of work helps keep outlier seasons in perspective). My big issue with the Tubby firing was that we kept him after back to back 6-12 years where we missed the tourney, then fired him when he came back and took us to the second round. If we weren't going to fire him after the 6-12 seasons, what was the bar for year 6? Did we bring back a guy coming off of back to back tournament misses with the idea that it was sweet 16 or bust? It must have been, because round of 32 wasn't enough. I was 100% on board with firing him after year 5, but I still scratch my head when I think about bringing him back after year 5 to fire him after winning a tourney game.

Even looking at full body of work, after 5 years, he went to 2 tourneys in 5 years and never got out of the first round. After 6 years, he had been to 3 in 6 years, and had a second round appearance to his name. So if we are firing/retaining based on full body of work, that full body was better when we fired him than it was one year prior when we kept him.
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It was the recruiting. He stopped recruiting - which is why, even though the record was better the year he got fired, the future looked worse and Tubby wasn't getting any younger and he sounded checked out in interviews.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Where am I going with this? I'm not really sure, other than to say that it's hard to judge in the moment whether a good game in the BTT is a green shoot of spring or whether it's the exception that proves the rule of how bad this team has been this year: that a fleeting flash of competence and an actual win is so surprising and thrilling that maybe it only reinforces how bad things have been lately.
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Nothing will change that this was a bad year overall but there have been some signs of life over the past month for anyone that was still paying attention.

Payne has really started coming into his own, Henley has shown some flashes, and in general the team has been playing a lot better. Still a long way to go and this will be a crucial off season for finding the right pieces but there have been some things happening to at least give a little hope for the future under Johnson.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Nothing will change that this was a bad year overall but there have been some signs of life over the past month for anyone that was still paying attention.

Payne has really started coming into his own, Henley has shown some flashes, and in general the team has been playing a lot better. Still a long way to go and this will be a crucial off season for finding the right pieces but there have been some things happening to at least give a little hope for the future under Johnson.
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Agreed to an extent, but much of that has been the return to health of Garcia and Carrington. The thin and unbalanced roster that caused the operation to collapse when they were out is still the root cause of a lot of our ills.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Nothing will change that this was a bad year overall but there have been some signs of life over the past month for anyone that was still paying attention.

Payne has really started coming into his own, Henley has shown some flashes, and in general the team has been playing a lot better. Still a long way to go and this will be a crucial off season for finding the right pieces but there have been some things happening to at least give a little hope for the future under Johnson.
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The FR have all shown some sings of upside recently. There have been plenty of bad things but that's been the season. Obviously beating a dead horse but the team as is isn't nearly good enough, CBJ has to absolutely have a nearly perfect offseason or he's as good as fired. Teams like ISU and Pitt have shown its not impossible to make that jump, but they also have coaches who have done that before, can CBJ do that? History says no, we'll see if he can change that.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Agreed to an extent, but much of that has been the return to health of Garcia and Carrington. The thin and unbalanced roster that caused the operation to collapse when they were out is still the root cause of a lot of our ills.
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This is probably the healthiest the team has been all year overall and it has definitely led to better play in general.
 

leib0039 said:
The FR have all shown some sings of upside recently. There have been plenty of bad things but that's been the season. Obviously beating a dead horse but the team as is isn't nearly good enough, CBJ has to absolutely have a nearly perfect offseason or he's as good as fired. Teams like ISU and Pitt have shown its not impossible to make that jump, but they also have coaches who have done that before, can CBJ do that? History says no, we'll see if he can change that.
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Yep. If we assume Battle, Cooper, Samuels, and Thompson are done it will leave Johnson with a solid core to build around but there will also be some good sized holes to fill, starting with PG.

Zero doubt that Johnson is aware of how important this off season is going to be for his long term future at Minnesota. Hopefully he can find the guys he needs to add to what he will have coming back.
 

skiumah1 said:
After 3rd year he only has 2 years left so buyout is just under 4 Mil
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I read his contract runs thru 4/1/27, totaling 6 years. Since this is year 2 and there's no mention of buyout after 2 years CBJ must be owed the remainder of the contract ($ 8mm) if let go now. Ouch!
 

MNVCGUY said:
Yep. If we assume Battle, Cooper, Samuels, and Thompson are done it will leave Johnson with a solid core to build around but there will also be some good sized holes to fill, starting with PG.

Zero doubt that Johnson is aware of how important this off season is going to be for his long term future at Minnesota. Hopefully he can find the guys he needs to add to what he will have coming back.
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Starting with PG, but our offense as it currently functions will be decimated.
 

dbmn said:
I read his contract runs thru 4/1/27, totaling 6 years. Since this is year 2 and there's no mention of buyout after 2 years CBJ must be owed the remainder of the contract ($ 8mm) if let go now. Ouch!
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Correct - And then owed 75% of remaining contract if let go after year 3.

Ben isn't going anywhere this offseason.
 

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