BadgersWire: Pre-spring College Football Playoff tiers for the 2024 season

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MisterGopher

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badgerswire.usatoday.com

Pre-spring College Football Playoff tiers for the 2024 season

What are the chances Wisconsin makes the College Football Playoff in 2024?
badgerswire.usatoday.com badgerswire.usatoday.com

1 Playoff Locks
Georgia, Ohio State

Georgia and Ohio State will both make the Playoff this year barring an unforeseen collapse. They are SP+ two top teams entering the 2024 season, both not even needing a perfect year to get in. They will be in.

2 Near-Locks
Texas, Oregon, Ole Miss

These three teams would be Playoff locks in any other year. But 2024 brings some unknown with Texas and Oregon both joining new conferences, and Ole Miss relying on a volatile transfer portal.

A big key here is overall talent and quarterback play. All three teams have the talent, and Nick Ewers, Dillon Gabriel and Jaxson Dart respectively are definitely good enough.

3 Conference Favorites
Utah, Florida State, Boise State/Tulane

The new 12-team playoff includes five auto-bids. The Big Ten and SEC winners will be in, as will the winners of the Big 12 and ACC — conferences where Utah and FSU are favored respectively. Then there’s one more auto-bid, which Boise State could grab out of the Mountain West or Tulane out of the American.

4 Next-Best Teams
Penn State, Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Clemson

There will be several teams in the Playoff with 10-2 or 9-3 records. I’d bet each of these five teams are in under that criteria.

5 Talented, But Tough Schedule
Michigan, LSU, Oklahoma

It’s easy to predict a Michigan slide this year. LSU and Oklahoma, meanwhile, have the talent of the top tiers but play gauntlet schedules in the SEC. It would take special seasons from all three to crack the Playoff field.

6 Potential Party Crashers
Missouri, Tennessee, USC, Miami

Welcome to the category where the ceiling is the Playoff, but the floor could be missing a bowl game. There’s no better representation of that than Miami, but the other three fit in as well.

7 Stars Could Align
Texas A&M, Auburn, Kansas, Nebraska

These four schools are here for different reasons. Texas A&M always has the talent to get it done, Nebraska is ascending and has a cupcake schedule (relatively speaking), Kansas has been there at midseason the last few years and Auburn is Auburn.

8 Super-Super Longshots
Wisconsin, Washington, Louisville, Arizona, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan State

Sorry to Wisconsin fans and fans of the rest of these programs. Whether it’s a lack of talent (Iowa State), lack of offense (Iowa), new coach (Michigan State and Arizona), no defense (North Carolina), gauntlet schedule (Wisconsin) or let-down after last season (Washington), I don’t see a Playoff run for any of these schools.

9 No Chance, But Still Have To Be Mentioned
Florida, UCLA, TCU, NC State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Arkansas, Minnesota, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Baylor, Cincinnati, Mississippi State

Not much to say here. These teams could all be okay this season, though I’d doubt any crack the Playoff field. Again, this is a matter of a combination of talent, schedule and circumstance.

10 Not Worthy of Discussion
Colorado

Not worthy of Playoff discussion, so we will not discuss it.
 

Past results are not indicative of future results. Last season was bad QB season.

Yet they still project that.

New QB, still project that.

On the other hand, the schedule is brutal.
 

for the media, it's a lot easier to handle "we were good last year, and we're going to be good this year."

it's a lot harder to handle "we weren't very good last year, but we'll be a lot better this year."

even if there are good reasons to back it up.
 

SHGopher said:
Past results are not indicative of future results. Last season was bad QB season.

Yet they still project that.

New QB, still project that.

On the other hand, the schedule is brutal.
Click to expand...
The bad news is: QB play last year was an embarrassment. The good news: QB play can not be any worse. AK had issues & turned our offense into Iowa's. I do not see success in his future.
 



Out State Gopher said:
The bad news is: QB play last year was an embarrassment. The good news: QB play can not be any worse. AK had issues & turned our offense into Iowa's. I do not see success in his future.
Click to expand...
AK didn't turn our offense into Iowa's all by himself. He had a lot of help.

So we removed AK. Magically, we'll still make all the right play calls again next year, and hope Max can execute? The pillowy soft schedule disappeared last year. We play a real schedule from here on out.

Question for the Flecktites, how long does the trend continue until we admit Peej is Glen Mason/Jerry Kill reincarnate?

Asking for a friend
 



MisterGopher said:
A big key here is overall talent and quarterback play. All three teams have the talent, and Nick Ewers, Dillon Gabriel and Jaxson Dart respectively are definitely good enough.
Click to expand...
Going to have to look into this Nick Ewers guy. Haven’t heard much about him up until this point.

On the other hand, I’ve heard Quinn Ewers is quite the quarterback.
 




If our only wins are Nebraska, Iowa & Wisconsin I consider it a very successful season.
 

caliGopher said:
AK didn't turn our offense into Iowa's all by himself. He had a lot of help.

So we removed AK. Magically, we'll still make all the right play calls again next year, and hope Max can execute? The pillowy soft schedule disappeared last year. We play a real schedule from here on out.

Question for the Flecktites, how long does the trend continue until we admit Peej is Glen Mason/Jerry Kill reincarnate?

Asking for a friend
Click to expand...

Minnesota is in a range with Iowa, Wisconsin, Maryland, UCLA, Michigan State, the latest suspects... Magically, no, they are not Ohio State.


The good offensive line was discussed previously in another thread, with Big Ten honors for a couple guys. A couple more strong recruits are coming in.

At running back, Darius Taylor looks great, plus Gophers should have a good stable of players taking reps.

The brutal schedule next season has nothing to do with the coach except he has to jump into it.

Getting the new QB was a big get.

I have no idea how the defense will look. A top safety recruit is coming in.

Not sure what to expect from pass catchers.

No idea what to expect from schemes on either side. Have a new DC. Had a bad QB last season so we don't know what the offense could have been.

The new QB will be better. How much better?
 





CoachBrewMotivator said:
Going to have to look into this Nick Ewers guy. Haven’t heard much about him up until this point.

On the other hand, I’ve heard Quinn Ewers is quite the quarterback.
Click to expand...
I was just going to post the same thing. No one could be that stupid, so his phone or whatever must've auto-corrected it or something. But still, can't a person at least proofread their stuff???

Another gem: "Texas A&M always has the talent to get it done" - did the author not see how many of those 2022 NIL recruits have already moved on?
 

Out State Gopher said:
The bad news is: QB play last year was an embarrassment. The good news: QB play can not be any worse. AK had issues & turned our offense into Iowa's. I do not see success in his future.
Click to expand...
Although I hope not, It is certainly possible to have worse QB play in 2024.
 


Out State Gopher said:
The bad news is: QB play last year was an embarrassment. The good news: QB play can not be any worse. AK had issues & turned our offense into Iowa's. I do not see success in his future.
Click to expand...
Yes it can. You could argue it was worse as recently as 2021z
 

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