Badgers by 14.5

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justthefacts said:
The line has already moved 1.5 points. I would guess that much of that 70% came in the early hours of the line being posted.
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Bad guess. It's moved a couple of times now and that's only when I've looked.
 

Iceland12 said:
Bad guess. It's moved a couple of times now and that's only when I've looked.
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Right, the money came in, and the line went up. I see now that the split is 68/32, which indicates that more than a majority of the money since you posted that has come in on Minnesota. So pretty much it's behaving as expected.

I guess I'm not understanding what your overall theory is.
 

I would not be surprised if WI wins by 15 or more, they are a very good team. If we can keep it close, great, if we win.....wow! Here is what the BADgers have done on their road games this year.

ASU - Lost 32-30 (no controversy there)
OSU - Lost 31-24 (no shame there)
Illinois - Win 56-32 (surprised they gave up that many points)
Iowa - Win 28-9 (solid win)

Wisconsin's defense averages giving up 14 points a game. In part that is due to the non-conf schedule where they had two shutouts for an average of 11.75 points a game. But in truth, they held 4 B1G team to less than that (Purdue 10, Iowa 9, NW 6, Indiana 3), so yeah, they are very good. If you look at Wisconsin's worst offensive output, 27 points, and used that for every game, they only would have lost one more game. You hate Wisconsin, I hate Wisconsin, we all hate Wisconsin, but please, don't complain about the spread.

That said, lets kick their asses and make them a loosing road team this year.
 

justthefacts said:
Right, the money came in, and the line went up. I see now that the split is 68/32, which indicates that more than a majority of the money since you posted that has come in on Minnesota. So pretty much it's behaving as expected.

I guess I'm not understanding what your overall theory is.
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Maybe because there was no theory involved? It was a straight-forward question.

"How high does that spread have to go to get that 70% down to 50-55%?", or do you think this is one of those time the books aren't so concerned with getting that even split you spoke of?
 

justthefacts said:
Right, the money came in, and the line went up. I see now that the split is 68/32, which indicates that more than a majority of the money since you posted that has come in on Minnesota. So pretty much it's behaving as expected.

I guess I'm not understanding what your overall theory is.
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It's actually a simple concept you bet $11 to win $10 the house keeps $1 if there is a perfect balance the house make $.90.9 per dollar bet. If the split is less than 9% they make money, the house doesn't like to gamble, they like safe bets and steady income.
 


nsmike said:
It's actually a simple concept you bet $11 to win $10 the house keeps $1 if there is a perfect balance the house make $.90.9 per dollar bet. If the split is less than 9% they make money, the house doesn't like to gamble, they like safe bets and steady income.
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Careful. Some on this board will dispute that statement citing the art of middling.
 

Anyone else find it odd that the gophers are +16 at home against the Badgers while Northwestern is +7 at home against Michigan State?
 

westcoastgopher11 said:
Pretty much this. Wisconsin is a lot better team than their ranking would indicate, if we keep it within 20 I would consider it progress.
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Wisconsin is a top ten team, regardless of the feckless polls -so winning will take a huge emotional effort. I hope we can keep it close - and, who knows, being college ball - we might win.
 

Iceland12 said:
Maybe because there was no theory involved? It was a straight-forward question.

"How high does that spread have to go to get that 70% down to 50-55%?", or do you think this is one of those time the books aren't so concerned with getting that even split you spoke of?
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Fair enough. Your capitalized IF and sunglasses emoticon confused me on your intentions.

The book wants an even split, but they're not prone to rapid changes. A point or two a day. So if the money comes in on one side, the line moves, perhaps some more money comes in on the same side, and it moves again. If you get $800 in bets on one side & $400K on the other you move the line up. It repeats so you move it up again, this time a whole point. Now the shift swings a little the other way, and you get $700K on the underdog and $500K on the favorite. You've achieved what you want in terms of changing the pattern, but you still have $2.1M on the fav and only $1.5M on the underdog.
 



I've been to Duluth said:
Anyone else find it odd that the gophers are +16 at home against the Badgers while Northwestern is +7 at home against Michigan State?
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Yes, Vegas continues to like Northwestern, presumably because they keep losing in excruciating ways, but MSU is a much better team than they are.
 







maroonedinCA said:
Completely off topic but did anyone see the line for the OSU v. IU game? 34 points! And almost 93% of the money is going for OSU to cover! I mean, I know IU looked rough last week but that line and that % is incredible for a conference game.
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I guess it depends on which IU team shows up. If it's the team of quitters, they lose by 60. If they play with heart, I could see them scoring an assload of points en route to a 28 point loss.
 

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