Badgers by 14.5

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Probably more to do with how many points Vegas projects Minnesota will score. UW's D is ranked 5th nationally in points allowed at 14 ppg. So there is a lot of talk about the UW rushing game, but the Badgers can flat out shut down an opposing offense. BYU and Indiana were both high powered units. Weather conditions hampered IU to an extent, but they scored 3. So I don't think there is a lack of respect to the Gopher's in that line. More a reflection of UW playing really well on both sides of the ball right now.
 

I said 3 days ago it would be 14+. That's no surprise. We have to prove it on the field. Wisconsin, like most teams, is up and down and plays better at home. We'll have to impose our will. I'm interested to see if we can do it. Wisconsin will hear all week from their coaches how good we are, and like most teams, they will ignore the warnings. So the time to strike on them is early in the game. We get up, could get interesting. They get up, could be a blow out. Sure would love to beat the skunks...
 

Do Wisconsin fans' betting habits (if they are different than other supporters) impact the need to start with a higher spread to balance the pool?
 




Sparlimb said:
I said 3 days ago it would be 14+. That's no surprise. We have to prove it on the field. Wisconsin, like most teams, is up and down and plays better at home. We'll have to impose our will. I'm interested to see if we can do it. Wisconsin will hear all week from their coaches how good we are, and like most teams, they will ignore the warnings. So the time to strike on them is early in the game. We get up, could get interesting. They get up, could be a blow out. Sure would love to beat the skunks...
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They are 8-0 against the spread this year as favorites. The Gophers could win the game, but it is not going to be because the Badgers were overlooking them.
 


I'd rather be big dogs. If/when we lose, it's expected. If (BIG if) we win, then it's another huge win for the program. Tempered expectations will receive this game as a win/win.
 


Formo said:
I'd rather be big dogs. If/when we lose, it's expected. If (BIG if) we win, then it's another huge win for the program. Tempered expectations will receive this game as a win/win.
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Pretty much this. Wisconsin is a lot better team than their ranking would indicate, if we keep it within 20 I would consider it progress.
 


Iceland12 said:
No kidding it was what 9 to 10.5 underdogs against Penn State, Nebraska AND Indiana? This feels worse doesn't it? Though as trends go… :)
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It was double digit underdogs to NW, Nebby and Indiana. We were favorites over PSU
 


Ughhhh. I've been watching the Gophers lose to Wisconsin for 10 years , and even though we're an improved team, +14.5 seems right on.

Everything needs to go right for us to have a chance.
 

This is the best chance we've had to beat them in years. With that being said, I'd be very surprised if we win. But I think I'd take the points. Nelson has improved his passing this season. Nelson's passing will be the key for our offense. If he has a big game, we can win.
 

Gopherguy0723 said:
This is the best chance we've had to beat them in years. With that being said, I'd be very surprised if we win. But I think I'd take the points. Nelson has improved his passing this season. Nelson's passing will be the key for our offense. If he has a big game, we can win.
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We had a great shot to beat Wisconsin on the road in 2008, losing 35-32. Gophers lead 21-7 at halftime and had the ball with 2:35 left down 3 and couldn't drive for the win/tie. People still occasionally talk about Brewster not going for more points before halftime.

2009 was another 3 point loss, 31-28. Gophers again lead at halftime, 13-10. KILLER in this game was a holding penalty on Colin McGarry on a 3rd and 2 play from the Badgers 18. Instead of first and goal with a chance to go up 20-10, it became 3rd and 12 from the 28 and Weber threw a pick.

When the Gophers have had a chance to beat Wisconsin in recent years, they haven't executed in the crucial situations.
 

Just looked at Bookmaker.eu and it's up to Wisconsin -16.
 

Before the 42-13 loss two years ago, the results of UW-UM in Minneapolis over the last 25 years:

2009: L, 28-31
2007: L, 34-41
2005: L, 34-38
2003: W, 37-34
2001: W, 42-31
1999: L, 17-20 (OT)
1997: L, 21-22
1995: L, 27-34
1993: W, 28-21
1991: L, 16-19
1989: W, 24-22
1987: W, 22-19

Average margin: 4.5 points.

The Gophers may not win, but I'll take 15-16 points.
 

EG#9 said:
We had a great shot to beat Wisconsin on the road in 2008, losing 35-32. Gophers lead 21-7 at halftime and had the ball with 2:35 left down 3 and couldn't drive for the win/tie. People still occasionally talk about Brewster not going for more points before halftime.

2009 was another 3 point loss, 31-28. Gophers again lead at halftime, 13-10. KILLER in this game was a holding penalty on Colin McGarry on a 3rd and 2 play from the Badgers 18. Instead of first and goal with a chance to go up 20-10, it became 3rd and 12 from the 28 and Weber threw a pick.

When the Gophers have had a chance to beat Wisconsin in recent years, they haven't executed in the crucial situations.
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This is really apples to oranges here, but what were the point spreads for those games? This year we have a more disciplined team that probably don't commit those mistakes above. We have faced experienced competition this year. We have proven ourselves against the odds and adversity. Sure, the Badgers are very good this year. But I think this team has the determination to go win this game and is up to the challenge. They will need to fire on all cylinders and can't afford to let up on the gas - ever.
 

Sparlimb said:
I said 3 days ago it would be 14+. That's no surprise. We have to prove it on the field. Wisconsin, like most teams, is up and down and plays better at home. We'll have to impose our will. I'm interested to see if we can do it. Wisconsin will hear all week from their coaches how good we are, and like most teams, they will ignore the warnings. So the time to strike on them is early in the game. We get up, could get interesting. They get up, could be a blow out. Sure would love to beat the skunks...
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No doubt, they have not been nearly as impressive on the road this year as at home, like most teams obviously. 2-2 on the road, gave up 32 points to Illinois (?, even with a few in garbage time, that's a lot). One more thing of note for the Badgers on the road:

7.5 penalties per game, 70.5 penalty yards per game. That's 29 penalties in 4 road games, only 18 in 6 home games.

I'm compelled to take the +14.5 but I've refrained from hitting the book to make a bet on the Rodents for every game of the current winning streak and you might as well stick with what works. I think they cover the 14.5, but who knows.

Hate to say it but I LOVE the extra week of preparation for this one. Normally don't put too much stock into it but this week, it could make a big difference. I'm guessing the Badgers see plenty of things from the Gophers offense that hasn't been on tape yet this year. I'm not talking flea flickers and double-reverses; They do a lot of things out of the same sets and there will be wrinkles out of those sets that they haven't rolled out yet this year. Maybe it helps, maybe it doesn't.
 

IF 70 % of the amount of money is coming in on the Badgers and IF it's a hard and fast rule that books just want to "balance the money" then how high does that spread have to go to get that 70% down to 50-55%? :cool:


3:30 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend
Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Spread Money O/U
Wisconsin (8-2) (2-2 A) W-5 -14.5 -16 70% n/a n/a
Minnesota (8-2) (5-1 H) W-4 51.0 50 30%

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/

http://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/current-odds-ncaaf
 

The line has already moved 1.5 points. I would guess that much of that 70% came in the early hours of the line being posted.
 

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